Are AP ROYAL OAKS ever going close to retail?

[multimedia]

Originally Posted by Ashj52

Thanks for your reply and input.

I am on the wait list for a Royal Oak 41mm at retail, which would be great but have been told categorically no chance this year - so if jumbo prices fall I may decide to put in the extra ££ and purchase. I will keep an eye on grey prices and decide accordingly, thanks again.

I have been waiting 3 years now. (Sure, it doesn't help that it's in Hong Kong. But still )

Cheers,
Joe

[fsprow]

Personally, I have no idea what will happen to prices. I suggest that the only forecast which might be trusted is from those who in 2016 correctly projected that some watches would be worth 3 to 5 times their MSRP in a few years. And also forecast during the pandemic that prices would rise. Otherwise, just stand by and see what happens.

[gretch6364]

I think you gotta just keep trying to build a positive relationship with a boutique. No one knows what will happen in the future, but I personally believe almost everything is cyclical. I think a 16202 is doable in the next 5 years at retail if you have a relationship right now. Maybe I am just an optimist, but I will predict Jumbos under $50K in the next 5 years.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by gretch6364

I think you gotta just keep trying to build a positive relationship with a boutique. No one knows what will happen in the future, but I personally believe almost everything is cyclical. I think a 16202 is doable in the next 5 years at retail if you have a relationship right now. Maybe I am just an optimist, but I will predict Jumbos under $50K in the next 5 years.

What I really want to know is are these "hot" models doable with just patience and keeping in touch with your SA. I have no problem waiting and doing that, but if its only doable with a combo of that and buying CODEs, that is a whole different proposition. Still very unclear to me if AP really wants collectors and those enthusiastic about the brand as clients are just the very wealthy collectors who are enthusiastic about that brand and can spend $100k plus before getting the watch they want.

At what point is it a lost cause? If after 2-3 years of playing the game and still not being allocated the piece you want (not some crazy piece but let's say a black 15500) is the writing on the wall and are you just wasting your time?

[huncho]

Originally Posted by psm11

What I really want to know is are these "hot" models doable with just patience and keeping in touch with your SA. I have no problem waiting and doing that, but if its only doable with a combo of that and buying CODEs, that is a whole different proposition. Still very unclear to me if AP really wants collectors and those enthusiastic about the brand as clients are just the very wealthy collectors who are enthusiastic about that brand and can spend $100k plus before getting the watch they want.

At what point is it a lost cause? If after 2-3 years of playing the game and still not being allocated the piece you want (not some crazy piece but let's say a black 15500) is the writing on the wall and are you just wasting your time?

black 15500 was pretty doable with no history and a little luck up until some point around mid 2021-early 2022. by doable i mean within a year or a little over. at the rate we're going it should go back to that soon. blue dials or models like 15202s/openworkeds were almost impossible even going back to 2019-2020

i think 3 years can officially be called a lost cause lol. it's hard to say how things will be because i feel like they'll try to keep bundles/purchase history in play for as long as they can

[mbalmz]

considering the fact that MSRP on royal oaks has increased 40-50% in the last few years, I think you're only asking half the question...

it's not just whether they'll ever be available at MSRP, it's what MSRP will be if/when that happens...

[gretch6364]

If the grey maker gets to 120 to 125% of MSRP…people will pause buying and then those that still want will go grey and not deal with the time it takes to wait and build a relationship. Then, those that stuck with it will have more options. Just a guess….

[huncho]

Originally Posted by gretch6364

If the grey maker gets to 120 to 125% of MSRP…people will pause buying and then those that still want will go grey and not deal with the time it takes to wait and build a relationship. Then, those that stuck with it will have more options. Just a guess….

it can work both ways, if theres a 20-30% premium that means the watches are still hard to get and in effect will require purchase history. i bought my 15450 in dec 2019 for 19.3k (msrp was 16k at the time). i couldn't even get on the wait list here for whatever reason and i wasn't even interested in the blue dial, was just told their wait list is full til at least mid 2020. i was told i could get a 39mm chrono within 3 months or so but it was a bit out of my price range at the time. in the end i lucked out because AP raised the msrp to 19.5k exactly 2 weeks later lol but the point is that was a 20% premium at the time and i had no choice

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by gretch6364

I think a 16202 is doable in the next 5 years at retail if you have a relationship right now. Maybe I am just an optimist, but I will predict Jumbos under $50K in the next 5 years.

I predict $50k is MSRP of the Jumbo in 5 years

[THWatch]

waiting game and the current economy...a grey market price of next month could be the MSRP in two years. I wish my SA would just out right tell me I have no chance...

[gretch6364]

Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix

I predict $50k is MSRP of the Jumbo in 5 years

If inflation stays at 10%…for sure!

[psm11]

Originally Posted by huncho

black 15500 was pretty doable with no history and a little luck up until some point around mid 2021-early 2022. by doable i mean within a year or a little over. at the rate we're going it should go back to that soon. blue dials or models like 15202s/openworkeds were almost impossible even going back to 2019-2020

i think 3 years can officially be called a lost cause lol. it's hard to say how things will be because i feel like they'll try to keep bundles/purchase history in play for as long as they can

To be clear, I haven't been waiting 3 years but have seen some folks on here claim they have been playing the game that long and still have nothing to show for it.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by psm11

To be clear, I haven't been waiting 3 years but have seen some folks on here claim they have been playing the game that long and still have nothing to show for it.

yeah, just meant i would personally consider 3 years a lost cause if ever in the situation

[mickyd329]

Originally Posted by psm11

To be clear, I haven't been waiting 3 years but have seen some folks on here claim they have been playing the game that long and still have nothing to show for it.

I agree that 3 years is a lost cause. Probably need to think about switching boutiques or SA's at that point.

From my last ROO purchase from my boutique in late 2020, I had about a 15 month wait until I got my 15500 earlier this year. From then, we got my wife's 50th 15551st and a 26574st QP RO. I'm anticipating a 50th ROC before year end. It seems to happen all at one time when it gets going. I too wondered if it was a lost cause after about a year of waiting for the 15500.

I will also add that having to buy a Code or spend $100k+ to get RO pieces allocated is a myth from my experience. Might be happening in other parts of the world though..

[multimedia]

Originally Posted by huncho

yeah, just meant i would personally consider 3 years a lost cause if ever in the situation

Originally Posted by mickyd329

I agree that 3 years is a lost cause. Probably need to think about switching boutiques or SA's at that point.

Never try to buy a popular SS watch in Hong Kong... ;)

Used to be fun, but the last couple of years it's been completely bonkers. But it has started to become a tiny bit better. Usually it happens here first so be it up or down in the market.

Cheers,
Joe

[matPORTS]

Haven't posted for a while, but read this and had to comments

A popular YouTube channel has today reported that Rolex ADs in the UK have been given new 'rules' by head office:

1. They can only sell a maximum of three watches per twelve months to 'preferred clients' (i.e. the flippers)

2. They are no longer able to sell to 'new clients' who have expressed interest and have a current spend history

Basically, other than preferred clients (flippers) who have less than three Rolex purchases in the last twelve months, what happens with any stock that is left over? Who does the AD sell it to? Does that stock remain in the safe until they work down the list? Do pieces end up back in the display case?

This so called 'new sales policy' can only do a couple of things IMO:

1. Reigning in these preferred clients (flippers) is only going to soften the supply out into the grey market - which means that the price of existing grey market stock will either continue to rise or at least stagnate (given that we may be in for some rough times in global markets coming up in these next 12-18 months)... without doubt the last thing Rolex wants now from a 'brand perception' standpoint is for the ass to completely fall out of the value of their watches

2. The breeding of new flippers will be slowed down - while it's not great that 'new clients' are going to be denied the chance, the reality of most 'new aspiring watch collectors'... if they got a chance at a Rolex at retail right now, they are more likely than not going to liquidate the piece within the first 6-12 months having had second thoughts about whether or not they actually need the piece, knowing they can walk away making a profit or at the very least recouping their spend $ for $. These same people are also, more likely than not, going to be the ones who receive a second and third call from the AD within a reasonable space of time, and thus this is how flippers are born. These are not the type of clients that Rolex head office in Switzerland wants on their books.

Having seen this video this morning, I've got a proverbial bee in my bonnet now.

The gentlemen who is the subject of this video claims that he has got a extensive spend history and has 'looked after his AD' very well as a result of this - UK300k in 10 years, and despite getting offered so many hot model Rolex over that time period claims he's frustrated at the new policy because he was in line for a white gold Daytona, but because he's already reached his three limit this year he is now 'out of the game'.

I don't care what anyone says - that is a lot of money to lay out on watches over any length of time, no matter how much money you earn or how much your 'net worth' is. I would find it very hard to believe that you are not a flipper and that you would not have previously already been offered PM Daytona's. The average 'super rich, super collector' is certainly not watching YouTube and e-mailing a popular channel about 'insider feedback' him/her has received from an AD either.

I guess the moral of the story to conclude:

If you are a 'new client' with no previous spend history trying to suck up to the AD in order to get a hot model Rolex, you may be out of luck for the moment. You are probably better off going to the grey market, but I'd shop around and try to haggle because the current state of the market puts the odds in your favour to try and get something at a 'reasonably good price' as grey dealers and flippers try to liquidate stock in these uncertain times.

If you have an existing AD relationship and/or required spend history (I know the spend history can be subjective), and you're lucky enough to get the call, congratulations in advance !

[multimedia]

You have to forgive me, but don't know how many times over the years we have heard/read on this forum exactly this "my AD told me, some random guy on internet said the AD have been given this and that info from the head office" etc.

So I wouldn't take what some channel on YouTube claim to know when it comes to what Rolex have communicated to the AD (in the UK) as proof what is actually going on.

Cheers,
Joe

[Breizh]

Originally Posted by THWatch

waiting game and the current economy...a grey market price of next month could be the MSRP in two years. I wish my SA would just out right tell me I have no chance...

I learned that lesson with my Nautilus 5726. Couldn't get it at an AD, so I went grey in early 2020. The price I paid is now the msrp plus tax. Even if I had a purchase history with an AD, I would still be waiting for it.

[GW44]

Originally Posted by multimedia

You have to forgive me, but don't know how many times over the years we have heard/read on this forum exactly this "my AD told me, some random guy on internet said the AD have been given this and that info from the head office" etc.

So I wouldn't take what some channel on YouTube claim to know when it comes to what Rolex have communicated to the AD (in the UK) as proof what is actually going on.

Cheers,
Joe

Much as it pains me to link to a Paul Thorpe YouTube video......here you go Joe;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ZDAxgqpNUg

[multimedia]

Originally Posted by GW44

Much as it pains me to link to a Paul Thorpe YouTube video......here you go Joe;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ZDAxgqpNUg

Thanks. I've already browsed through it though.

I've written a few post already regarding this over at the Rolex section. I want to belive it. But at the same time, personally I only see it as "my AD said this and that". I hope I'm 100% wrong = and instead this will be implemented, because it might mean that the watches will actually end up at the "correct" customer = someone who will keep the watch, enjoy it, and cherries for what it is. :)

(I'm not entirely sure how this would help to get rid of the flippers who have already bought a popular model = is now not allowed to sign up for another one. Why wouldn’t they just use another person to go in and do the same all over again? But maybe I'm missing something here...)

Cheers,
Joe

[Replicar]

Originally Posted by psm11

Will be watching prices daily. All I want is the panda 26331ST which was going for over $100k a few months back. I just saw one listed on Moda for $60k and am tempted to pull the trigger but prices are way too shaky right now. I think if it gets into the $40ks I will pull the trigger.

Hi, would you mind to share with me how to access / view these listings on moda ?

[multimedia]

Originally Posted by Replicar

Hi, would you mind to share with me how to access / view these listings on moda ?

You have to get accepted to have access to the group. It's over on FB.

Cheers,
Joe

[Sandpit]

Not too sure what retail is, but they do seem to be getting closer:




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[multimedia]

Retail is; $25,300

(hope it's ok to report on retail prices at least...)

Cheers,
Joe

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by matPORTS

...the reality of most 'new aspiring watch collectors'... if they got a chance at a Rolex at retail right now, they are more likely than not going to liquidate the piece within the first 6-12 months having had second thoughts about whether or not they actually need the piece, knowing they can walk away making a profit or at the very least recouping their spend $ for $. "

How is that the "the reality"? In fact, this doesn't make any sense at all. Rolex makes 1M watches a year, the grey market supply is a small fraction of what Rolex has made cumulatively over the last few years. In the scenario from your post, there's only flippers and new clients who sell in the "first 6-12 months"? Where do all these watches go? As there is no-one hanging on to their watches, it's just millions of watches forever circulating among greys?

[vman]

Originally Posted by impactplayer

I passed on buying that watch grey for $27k in mid-2020 and I am still kicking myself.

I sold mine for slightly lower around that time... Good thing I had a sense to put $ toward a house ;-)

Doubt things will come back to mid-2020, but reasonable prices should return.