Availability going to get better?

[skp]

I was at a Boutique about 2 months ago and was told that the supply has dried up because of covid but they expect supply to go back to normal before the end of the year.

Does this sound reasonable? The authorized dealers are acting like they'll do you a favor and sell you a different brand for Rolex prices (brands that you used to be able to get a discount on).

[dcash0615]

Seriously doubt anything will change on the supply side by the end of the year. I suspect the current situation will remain for quite some time.

[teck21]

It seems Rolex seems to be increasing production.

The current feeding frenzy style is also likely to moderate because this sort of hype induced frenzied demand invariably does.

Even in the absence of any sort of financial crisis, this can only point to a better situation at ADs.

Whether better amounts to anything much though is the question. Increasing global wealth is a long term trend that has barely even started. That’s what Rolex has in mind, not some nonsensical three year frenzy for SS sports models.

I don’t think anyone hoping to score a Pepsi should be getting his hopes up though:

Rolex may be increasing production, but they are certainly not going to manufacture a lot more SS Daytona’s or Pepsi’s.

If anything, they may go in the opposite direction for these.

Also, recent developments in China are going to have a huge influence on what happens with Rolex and all luxury demand.

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[Chester01]

Gray market will either get them before they hit the shelf or right after, and hold them ransom so no matter. People will pay what it costs to get those instabook likes.

[Rebel]

[BNA/LION]

[brandog]

Supply has been a problem for 3-4 years now, this isn't a recent COVID thing.

[Gab27]

Originally Posted by teck21

It seems Rolex seems to be increasing production.

The current feeding frenzy style is also likely to moderate because this sort of hype induced frenzied demand invariably does.

Even in the absence of any sort of financial crisis, this can only point to a better situation at ADs.

Whether better amounts to anything much though is the question. Increasing global wealth is a long term trend that has barely even started. That’s what Rolex has in mind, not some nonsensical three year frenzy for SS sports models.

I don’t think anyone hoping to score a Pepsi should be getting his hopes up though:

Rolex may be increasing production, but they are certainly not going to manufacture a lot more SS Daytona’s or Pepsi’s.

If anything, they may go in the opposite direction for these.

Also, recent developments in China are going to have a huge influence on what happens with Rolex and all luxury demand.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Beyond China, I would not be shocked if in the next 5-15 years we start seeing an increased demand for luxury goods in India.

[skp]

Originally Posted by brandog

Supply has been a problem for 3-4 years now, this isn't a recent COVID thing.

I know it's been bad for several years now but it seems like it just got worse in the last 2. My local ADs can't even honestly take orders and they seem to be getting maybe 1 steel model every 4-6 months.

I'm not holding my breath and I'm not in a rush but I would love to be able to wear more than one Rolex in the forseeable future.

Wouldn't basic business sense say that if you're selling every unit produced then you should increase production starting with the models with highest demand? I don't think Rolex is trying to artificially raise their preceived value and I think it's a production issue which they're going to have to address sooner than later.

[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by skp

I was at a Boutique about 2 months ago and was told that the supply has dried up because of covid but they expect supply to go back to normal before the end of the year.

Does this sound reasonable? The authorized dealers are acting like they'll do you a favor and sell you a different brand for Rolex prices (brands that you used to be able to get a discount on).

I think it’ll Improve slightly.
Rolex ADs are now so light in stock that many just don’t even look in their windows anymore. I used to love a browse at an AD and now I tend not to bother.

I think it’ll get back to some (lower demand) sports models popping up in windows occasionally eg air king, exp 1, milgauss etc.

It’s depressing the way it is currently

[skp]

Originally Posted by Nairn1980

I think it’ll Improve slightly.
Rolex ADs are now so light in stock that many just don’t even look in their windows anymore. I used to love a browse at an AD and now I tend not to bother.

I think it’ll get back to some (lower demand) sports models popping up in windows occasionally eg air king, exp 1, milgauss etc.

It’s depressing the way it is currently

Really, for me, the experience starts with something catching my eye in a window, and then seeing a watch in the metal, trying it on to see the fit, comparing it with something else and then puliing the trigger. I've never had a good experience purchasing a luxury item sight unseen.

[Xerxes77]

I think things remain the same in the next 2-3 years

[Fenrira]

Originally Posted by skp

I know it's been bad for several years now but it seems like it just got worse in the last 2. My local ADs can't even honestly take orders and they seem to be getting maybe 1 steel model every 4-6 months.

I'm not holding my breath and I'm not in a rush but I would love to be able to wear more than one Rolex in the forseeable future.

Wouldn't basic business sense say that if you're selling every unit produced then you should increase production starting with the models with highest demand? I don't think Rolex is trying to artificially raise their preceived value and I think it's a production issue which they're going to have to address sooner than later.

Hard to believe they receive one steel model every 4-6 months when Aquanauts and Nautiluses come into many ADs once every 3 months.

[skp]

Originally Posted by Fenrira

Hard to believe they receive one steel model every 4-6 months when Aquanauts and Nautiluses come into many ADs once every 3 months.

I'm taking what I was told with a grain of salt but for sure I could tell that they were not happy with what they were receiving.

[TimepieceRPP]

Buy here it comes the logistic and shipment delay. Don't think it can get any better.

[travisb]

Doubt it.

[Andad]

No.

[mountainjogger]

Nope.

[Boaters]

Nada

[CharlesN]

Originally Posted by skp

I was at a Boutique about 2 months ago and was told that the supply has dried up because of covid but they expect supply to go back to normal before the end of the year.

Does this sound reasonable? The authorized dealers are acting like they'll do you a favor and sell you a different brand for Rolex prices (brands that you used to be able to get a discount on).

It seems that anybody who is under any form of pressure to supply almost anything and is having a problem for what ever the reason is blaming COVID.

The supply, service and everything problems across the gloibe are partially caused by Covid but most of the problems were there long before the outbreak.

Covis is just being used as a convienient excuse.

And ... NO .. I am NOT a COVID denier ... I have been vaccinated twice and will get my booster shortly.

[Jack T]

Originally Posted by skp

I was at a Boutique about 2 months ago and was told that the supply has dried up because of covid but they expect supply to go back to normal before the end of the year.

Does this sound reasonable? The authorized dealers are acting like they'll do you a favor and sell you a different brand for Rolex prices (brands that you used to be able to get a discount on).

Why have you waited two months to post this information??

[Mystro]

In fact many of my sources and observations of several online sources seem to back up the idea Rolex is reducing production/distribution of their newest SS watches like the new Sub41. The market is so strong I believe it can get even worse this year if your looking for a SS Professional model. You will see very minor variations with the time of year as watch sales has its cycles of ups and down. Late summer is a low period but will pick up again late fall and pick up again in spring/pre summer. It’s always been this way. If your waiting for the Rolex bus to slow down to jump on you better start running faster the longer you wait to buy.

[DoricSpiker]

Originally Posted by Nairn1980

I think it’ll Improve slightly.
Rolex ADs are now so light in stock that many just don’t even look in their windows anymore. I used to love a browse at an AD and now I tend not to bother.

I think it’ll get back to some (lower demand) sports models popping up in windows occasionally eg air king, exp 1, milgauss etc.

It’s depressing the way it is currently

This is my expectation in the UK also. That is where it was before the Pandemic struck, Jan 20 time. I bought a Z Blue Milgauss from its case that month. I haven't seen one since.

[brandrea]

I don’t think so

[1William]

No problem with availability, only availability through AD's at msrp. Plenty of watches for sell. Until the Grey prices adjust downward and get close to msrp then you will not see any relief. And what causes that is all speculation.

[Goin2drt]

But wait there was a thread the other day that said because of a SS shortage supply was drying up. Which is it? I don't know what interweb thread to believe.

[johnwigan]

Yes, things will eventually return to normal, but Covid is not over yet. Empty displays are not viable or desirable. Abysmal customer experience is not a viable long term strategy.

Going to an AD and you cannot try on the watch you want or even see it, or see any of the watches you're interested in, is ludicrous. Being told you have to buy what you don't want to even have a chance of buying your chosen Rolex damages the Rolex brand and loses Rolex £££ and customers. And having a situation where every spiv wants a Rolex to flip for a quick profit is off putting for the well healed, and ultimately costs Rolex. Watches seems to have caught the imagination of the amateur wheeler dealer looking for easy cash. Maybe, Covid has exacerbated that.

What has happened in recent years is abnormal and will not just continue indefinitely as we recover from Covid back to normality and Rolex addresses these issues. Some people are emotionally invested in the Rolex shortage/price increases because they feel their watch is worth more or they paid an inflated price. Or they are flippers.

I'll be glad when normal service is resumed. It is idiotic going to a fancy showroom - with empty display cases, and not being able to try stuff on. And having to wait months for a watch. Just ridiculous at the moment.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by skp

Availability going to get better?

No

[BLNR Nairobi]

Originally Posted by skp

Wouldn't basic business sense say that if you're selling every unit produced then you should increase production starting with the models with highest demand?

Question though for you - while basic business sense may state that, what about a situation where the company is making a product that has been obsolete for decades (the mechanical watch). What if the company realizes that with the continued rise of wrist computers (the Apple/Samsung watches and their ilk) that the mechanical watch industry is facing an existential crisis similar (if not worse) than the Quartz Crisis that almost killed half of existing Swiss watch companies in the 70s? That many of the lower to mid tier watch companies will not survive, and even a couple of the higher ones (I look at you Moser and Girard perregaux on the higher end, although the mass die-off will MASSIVELY affect lower end watches that are within the strike radius of the smart watches) will not - with only the likes of Omega (which is trying to do what Rolex is doing by the way), Rolex, AP, Patek and a couple of others being the ones that will do well. What if the company realizes that the only way to not only survive but thrive would be to come as close to a Veblen good as possible? What if the company sees many of its competitors products spending months collecting dust in AD shelves, and in some cases with those products having to be bought back? Or the sizeable discounts present? And the company realizes that increasing production above a certain marker would bring the risk of dead stock should the current market, where every ‘asset’ is inflated, turn.

Increasing production (or price) beyond a certain level would be highly detrimental to Rolex, and they will not do it. They will increase production (and anyway, they currently sell more watches than their next three competitors - including Omega - combined), but it will be small and will not make a difference.

What they will do is maybe move from 800K-1m watches a year to maybe 1-1.3m a year, but no more than that.

Rolex - like Patek and AP (and increasingly, Omega) - want to survive a situation that will cull many watch brands.

Massively increasing production goes against that, and unfortunately any small increase will not make a difference in terms of increased availability. People talk about India demand taking over where China drops off. True. There are also other emerging markets that are also increasing purchase spend - some in places you wouldn’t believe, and which in the next 7 or so years will continue the baton exchange.

The way I see it is Tudor will become increasingly important, and Rolex will continue to be difficult to acquire. Even if Rolex increases production by a couple hundred thousand watches.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by skp

Wouldn't basic business sense say that if you're selling every unit produced then you should increase production

Rolex is not a basic business and does not care about this