Availability going to get better?

[Oxfordian]

Originally Posted by skp

I can see how there are many reasons an AD might not be the best source for information. But what about boutiques? A boutique doesn't have another lifeline because they can only sell Rolex right? I would think that they are situated in locations that cost quite a lot for rent/lease. A closing of a boutique would propably look pretty bad and so I would assume that Rolex is providing some legit information to them at least.

Don’t know a Rolex Boutique but as far as I know Rolex doesn’t have a retail arm therefore they would know nothing different from an informed (guessed?) comment by an AD.

[HiBoost]

Originally Posted by BLNR Nairobi

Is it that supply is bad or that literally every single piece that is received is immediately sold?

Exactly. I was talking to an AD about this Saturday and they said they have already sold more Rolex watches this year than any other year and obviously the year isn't even over yet. I always see posts saying things like "there are no watches in the case, how do they afford to pay the employees?!" but as you stated, watches still come in, watches still get sold. Empty cases does not equal no sales. To the contrary, it means maximum sales. And Rolex usually pushes each AD to take slightly more watches than the previous year, so 2021 should be a great year financially for dealers.

This AD also told me that Rolex is in the process of moving Tudor production outside of the main Rolex facility so the Rolex facility can focus all resources on Rolex models. We shall see on that one...

[LC23]

Originally Posted by skp

I was at a Boutique about 2 months ago and was told that the supply has dried up because of covid but they expect supply to go back to normal before the end of the year.

Does this sound reasonable? The authorized dealers are acting like they'll do you a favor and sell you a different brand for Rolex prices (brands that you used to be able to get a discount on).

one can hope

[Oxfordian]

Originally Posted by HiBoost

Exactly. I was talking to an AD about this Saturday and they said they have already sold more Rolex watches this year than any other year and obviously the year isn't even over yet. I always see posts saying things like "there are no watches in the case, how do they afford to pay the employees?!" but as you stated, watches still come in, watches still get sold. Empty cases does not equal no sales. To the contrary, it means maximum sales. And Rolex usually pushes each AD to take slightly more watches than the previous year, so 2021 should be a great year financially for dealers.

I can concur with this, my AD told me that they had received a delivery of 20 watches in the last few days, well down on what they would receive normally. Of the watches that they received 3 went into display as they had no orders for these, 1 the watch I was viewing had interest from a number of people but I had first refusal, the remaining 16 watches had people coming in to collect.

The AD confirmed that they would be clear of the 16 watches by midweek, mine if I didn’t buy it (I didn’t) by the following weekend and then it was wait and see if they got any walk-ins who might want what that had on display.

So to the outsider the Rolex store had a poor display, but to those in store they had been very busy. Their issue, when’s the next delivery coming in.

Oh, and anything in SS is hard to get at the moment.

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by skp

I was at a Boutique about 2 months ago and was told that the supply has dried up because of covid but they expect supply to go back to normal before the end of the year.

Does this sound reasonable?

Depends on the meaning of "normal" in this context. 2017-19 normal won't exactly be brilliant. 2015-2017 normal would be better.

Last I heard, Rolex were easing off the gas on SS production because the profit margins on PM watches were much more attractive and they still sell as many PM pieces as they can make.

To see will be to know, to speculate will be futile.

[bob sims]

Originally Posted by teck21

I don’t think anyone hoping to score a Pepsi should be getting his hopes up though:

Rolex may be increasing production, but they are certainly not going to manufacture a lot more SS Daytona’s or Pepsi’s.

If anything, they may go in the opposite direction for these.

Also, recent developments in China are going to have a huge influence on what happens with Rolex and all luxury demand.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You hit the ball out of the park there.

[Seddyspaghetti]

Originally Posted by dontknow

no. They don’t have any clue. They will just keep stringing you along any way they can until you spend money on something there.

+1

[McinRolex]

More correct term would be "demand went through the roof".

[JParm]

Originally Posted by skp

Wouldn't basic business sense say that if you're selling every unit produced then you should increase production starting with the models with highest demand?

Ask Panerai about that.

[Turb0wned]

Yet the grey have thousands of each model... There is no "shortage" this is all about AD's selling to the grey and flippers.

[Xelor5513]

Originally Posted by Turb0wned

Yet the grey have thousands of each model... There is no "shortage" this is all about AD's selling to the grey and flippers.

Nailed it!

[vh2k]

Originally Posted by Turb0wned

Yet the grey have thousands of each model... There is no "shortage" this is all about AD's selling to the grey and flippers.

Originally Posted by Xelor5513

Nailed it!

ZERO evidence to support this. Been debunked countless times.

But in the fantasy world of TRF, this myth rules above all others.

[MiamiLSUfan]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Ask Panerai about that.

This is true. I walked into a Mayors about 2 months ago to look at the new white dial Panerai. The SA told me they hadn’t had a shipment from Panerai in months.

[BroncoOne]

I just visited the Rolex AD in the Caesars Forum shop in Las Vegas. They had “tester” watches so you could at least try on a watch that you are interested in. Still no men’s watches available for sale, just diamond studded ladies Rolex TT watches available.

The testers were Batman, Daytona , yachtmaster 42, sub and a few different color dial datejusts. Friendly staff expressing desires to actually have things to sell.

[Jack T]

Originally Posted by skp

Wouldn't basic business sense say that if you're selling every unit produced then you should increase production starting with the models with highest demand? I don't think Rolex is trying to artificially raise their preceived value and I think it's a production issue which they're going to have to address sooner than later.

Way off base on several counts. No producer of high end, high demand products increases production; that’s the entire point of positioning. The only difference is that Rolex isn’t raising prices to compete with the grey market.

And to suggest that Rolex is not trying to raise the perceived value of their watches…well, there isn’t a manufacturer in the world that doesn’t want that.

By the way, what do you mean by ‘artificially’ raising perceived value?
And all indications are Rolex current production levels are comparable to 2018 and 2019.

It’s demand, through the roof, pure and simple.

[JRell]

Yep https://www.google.com/amp/s/instore...right-now/amp/

[Spartacus]

I heard from two very trustable ADs that SS inventory will not pick up until later this year if not Spring 2022.

I want to also mention that both called to offer me two tone 41mm subs which I turned down waiting for SS.

Part of me wonders if there is a labor or safety issue affecting the factory that is dampening the situation.

Also, want to point out that, I’ve been treated extremely well by ADs, even those that I had not done business with, now certainly after buying treatment gets even better but I’ve never experienced this malicious or mockery that others seem to encounter.

[Brew]

My AD would not take my request for a 36mm DD. Said he he had no idea when he’d be able to place the order, let alone get the watch in.

DSW had it to me, next day.


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[copperjohn]

I went into two different AD’s yesterday, and each had only one piece. A ladies gold model. It’s been like this awhile, even pre-dating the COVID era by a bit. IMHO, no magic switch will be thrown that suddenly opens up a flood of Rolex men’s sport models.

[alphadweller]

I doubt availability will get any better, quite the opposite in fact. It's going to get worse unless Rolex start to sell their watches directly to private buyers.

[rolexdd40yg]

Originally Posted by Turb0wned

Yet the grey have thousands of each model... There is no "shortage" this is all about AD's selling to the grey and flippers.

Exactly this.
People don't understand that AD are selling to grey dealers.
Because AD's are not allowed to sell above MSRP then they found the solution to sell to grey dealers.
The so called ss hard to get watches are sold by the AD to a customer only if a grey dealer has not moved its stock because there was no buyer in the meantime and the AD receive another delivery from Rolex.
The solution to this is not by increasing production.
If Rolex really wanted to resolve this issue they would have started selling their watches online
First arrived first served.
I was passing by my AD last week and I saw that he was getting 4 boxes full of watches from Rolex, and when I went by he confirmed.
People buying above MSRP at grey dealers are creating this situation also.

[TheDapperYank]

I'm thinking a year or 2 before things settle down. Talking with a few ADs, the supply situation was really bad the last few months, but they've started getting more shipments of more watches recently. I honestly believe that Rolex does not like the current situation, and all the folks saying that they are selling directly to grey markets, it doesn't ACTUALLY make any sense since Rolex is technically a non-profit and therefore isn't beholden to shareholders. Also, a Daytona selling for 50k on the grey market doesn't benefit Rolex at all since they would have already made their money on the watch at $13.5k MSRP. Most of the conspiracy theories are fun, but frankly don't ACTUALLY hold up under any sort of scrutiny.

[rolexdd40yg]

Originally Posted by TheDapperYank

I'm thinking a year or 2 before things settle down. Talking with a few ADs, the supply situation was really bad the last few months, but they've started getting more shipments of more watches recently. I honestly believe that Rolex does not like the current situation, and all the folks saying that they are selling directly to grey markets, it doesn't ACTUALLY make any sense since Rolex is technically a non-profit and therefore isn't beholden to shareholders. Also, a Daytona selling for 50k on the grey market doesn't benefit Rolex at all since they would have already made their money on the watch at $13.5k MSRP. Most of the conspiracy theories are fun, but frankly don't ACTUALLY hold up under any sort of scrutiny.

Rolex doesn't sell the watches to grey dealers. AD does.

[JSolution]

I don’t think the shortage is going away ever to be honest, I believe this is how Rolex will manage the brand for good. I’m a pretty good customer at my AD now, we’ll I’d like it to think so. However still can’t me any watches, I’m on lots of lists I asked for a YG dd40 configuration yesterday and he said it was three years. I actually thought I’d be able to get it immediately. I think availability will become worse demand will increase more and with it the ore owned market prices. In my experience it’s easier and cheaper to just buy now on lol he secondary market.

[RolexSimon]

Originally Posted by rolexdd40yg

Exactly this.
People don't understand that AD are selling to grey dealers.
Because AD's are not allowed to sell above MSRP then they found the solution to sell to grey dealers.
The so called ss hard to get watches are sold by the AD to a customer only if a grey dealer has not moved its stock because there was no buyer in the meantime and the AD receive another delivery from Rolex.
The solution to this is not by increasing production.
If Rolex really wanted to resolve this issue they would have started selling their watches online
First arrived first served.
I was passing by my AD last week and I saw that he was getting 4 boxes full of watches from Rolex, and when I went by he confirmed.
People buying above MSRP at grey dealers are creating this situation also.

See posts above - apart from your last sentence, there is no evidence to support this. ADs caught selling to grey loose their AD status - pretty expensive mistake. Rolex monitors flipped watches then "informs" the AD who, naturally doesn't sell to that individual again. This is an absolute fact - ask any reliable AD and they'll show you the internet / social media posts of such sales sent to them from Rolex. The ADs are under no illusion what happens if this continues. These represent a small minority of Rolex purchasers. 99% keep their Rolex for life - or at least many years. COVID has encouraged many to sell after 2 years or so - probably not regarded as flipping after ownership of that time. The number of BNIB watches on Chrono24 represents a tiny minority of those produced and sold to individuals who are either on a W/L for several years or VIP spenders. Why would Rolex do on-line sales? Doesn't do anything to encourage more spend or reward brand / AD loyalty. That logic means the business class upgrade seat should be randomly allocated to anyone on the plane..........

[mikel]

Rolex must love seeing 30%+ profit pouring into flippers' pockets.

[Krash]

Originally Posted by Turb0wned

Yet the grey have thousands of each model... There is no "shortage" this is all about AD's selling to the grey and flippers.

Ridiculous.

These threads always crack me up.


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[Boaters]

I could be optimistic and say I hope your right. But I know your not..

[copperjohn]

Originally Posted by Turb0wned

Yet the grey have thousands of each model... There is no "shortage" this is all about AD's selling to the grey and flippers.

But it’s not about the after-market. It’s about the market. These watches were being bought before. AD stock is the issue.

They are being bought. I’d bet that it’s more about speculators who buy and list than grey dealers having an in with the AD. The AD’s have a costumer base. Pushing all their Rolex product to grey dealers wouldn’t endear them to anyone. Most of these places think strategically, not tactically. The latter would be very short sighted.

[skp]

Originally Posted by Jack T

Way off base on several counts. No producer of high end, high demand products increases production; that’s the entire point of positioning. The only difference is that Rolex isn’t raising prices to compete with the grey market.

And to suggest that Rolex is not trying to raise the perceived value of their watches…well, there isn’t a manufacturer in the world that doesn’t want that.

By the way, what do you mean by ‘artificially’ raising perceived value?
And all indications are Rolex current production levels are comparable to 2018 and 2019.

It’s demand, through the roof, pure and simple.

I meant by purposely creating an unbalance of supply vs demand thus raising market value. There is no benefit of raising market value if you're not going to take advantage of it. The only point of any business is to increase profit and increase revenue.

How about a thought experiment to illistrate the point? What if Rolex decided to just make one SS watch per year, keep the MSRP at 10K and provide that one piece to an AD and allow the market to stipulate the value?

The counter argument would be that it's all about finding a balance but that balance is not there right now. I don't know that many watch enthusiasts that go out and buy Rolexes or expensive watches for that matter on the regular. However, for the past 20 years of my experience, it was a given that a groom would be gifted a Rolex for a wedding gift. In the past few years, I've been to several weddings and the groom received another watch brand as a gift and I don't think it's because of a decrease in desire for a Rolex.

Can anyone honeslty say that they think Rolex knows exactly what they are doing and this "shortage" of availability is all a part of their plan?