Investors Clock Out As Rolex Demand Cools

[Laszlo]

For those obsessed about the value market of luxury watches, most notably Rolex, here’s some interesting stats published today that are worth taking note of. Will the trend continue or will there be a rebound?








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[59_Burst]

Sort of a silly graph as modern, factory made "luxury Goods" are not invest-able and we all know it.

Now let's see a graph of vintage timepieces and their corresponding auction prices, versus grey market dealers selling above MSRP.

[Jpccarguy]

Interesting to see that DJ’s have held value compared to other, so-called ‘grail’ references.

[Laszlo]

I was surprised by DJ as well.

Agree with earlier statement that vintage would be more fruitful but we all know today most people even track the value of their sneakers and cars.

It’s the ‘everything’ bubble.

[C0d]

Yo let's all try to buy more Datejusts...



The whole thing is silly TBH and I can't wait for this to end so we can all return to buying watches in the "showrooms" at 5% discount with a smile and a beverage.

[minute_man]

Coincidentally I came across that web site today, following a link on a newspaper article. Never knew there was an... index for this kind of stuff. Laughable child play, really.
The only index I really care about is the BDI

[amh]

Originally Posted by 59_Burst

Sort of a silly graph as modern, factory made "luxury Goods" are not invest-able and we all know it.

Now let's see a graph of vintage timepieces and their corresponding auction prices, versus grey market dealers selling above MSRP.

Just think of the word "Speculators" instead of "Investors" and then it will make sense.

[4 Aussies]

Good Riddance to the investors!!

[RoyalOac]

Where's the ZeroHedge article? Isn't that where you go the thread title from?

[Laszlo]

Yes from ZH, folks can do their own research I don’t post external links of TRF.

[RoyalOac]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

Yes from ZH, folks can do their own research I don’t post external links of TRF.

Why not? You shared the graph. You started a thread clearly sharing the same sentiments as ZeroHedge, so you might as well shared the article. Kind of defeats the purpose of a forum to not share.

No different than posting links to youtube clips or a reference to a hodinkee article.

[bin31z]

Its realistically worse than this but yeah, once they go under retail on secondary, no point to hoard them anymore. I've seen these newer watch dealers that got into the game in 2021 liquidating watches. Judging by their age, I'm guessing people were leveraging debt to buy piece to hopefully immediately turn around and sell at a profit. What can go wrong lol. We got stubborn dealers in our for sale section still pricing things for 2-3 months ago....good luck

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by 4 Aussies

Good Riddance to the investors!!

We can only hope Randy

[prnceofpersia23]

Can’t wait for the day I can just buy the watch I want without an exorbitant mark up, depreciation be damned.

[bin31z]

For example, in a dealer group, I see a platinum daytona going for 118,500 USD tax free and just sitting there. I saw a black dial daytona go for 26,000 USD yesterday.

[bin31z]

Rolex GMT Batman 116710BLNR, 16.6k USD

[kieselguhr]

Originally Posted by 4 Aussies

Good Riddance to the investors!!

Hopefully when the dust settles, investors and doomsayers alike can move on and the forum can get back to being about watches and not the intrinsic value nonsense.

[VegasBaby]

The whole thing is just silly. The folks who for the last year plus were complaining about the crazy high prices were only whining because they felt they had a missed an opportunity to bank some profit. They were never Rolex or other high-end Watch Buyers back when things were normal (2017 and prior). They certainly aren’t Watch Buyers now that the market is starting to reset. Watches will soon once again be available to people who are enthusiasts, collectors and, people that actually wear them!

[huncho]

Originally Posted by bin31z

For example, in a dealer group, I see a platinum daytona going for 118,500 USD tax free and just sitting there. I saw a black dial daytona go for 26,000 USD yesterday.

are they actually going to end users for that price or is it just dealers doing fire sales because they have to? down 40-50% in 2 months seems kinda unimaginable lol, unless they're naked, but still. feels kinda like you have healthy dealers buying stuff off the ones with huge losses at ridiculously cheap prices and then marking them up

[bin31z]

Originally Posted by huncho

are they actually going to end users for that price or is it just dealers doing fire sales because they have to? down 40-50% in 2 months seems kinda unimaginable lol, unless they're naked, but still. feels kinda like you have healthy dealers buying stuff off the ones with huge losses at ridiculously cheap prices and then marking them up

Nope typically these watches are full set with stickers attached. Especially the platinum pieces. Like I said, I'm guessing these dealers are leveraged with short term line of credits. I mean, I see alot of small personal dealers that popped up during the last couple of years with probably 1-2 million in inventory. I know they don't have that cash so most likely rotating lines of credit. I think they essentially being margin called and need to dump to survive.

[bin31z]

Originally Posted by huncho

are they actually going to end users for that price or is it just dealers doing fire sales because they have to? down 40-50% in 2 months seems kinda unimaginable lol, unless they're naked, but still. feels kinda like you have healthy dealers buying stuff off the ones with huge losses at ridiculously cheap prices and then marking them up

Yeah, some go to end users like myself. You have to have a seller's permit which I do for other purposes so no sales tax either.

[bin31z]

Another GMT Master II
116710LN
Fully stickered, V serial, open date card
1️⃣3️⃣ K

[huncho]

Originally Posted by bin31z

Nope typically these watches are full set with stickers attached. Especially the platinum pieces. Like I said, I'm guessing these dealers are leveraged with short term line of credits. I mean, I see alot of small personal dealers that popped up during the last couple of years with probably 1-2 million in inventory. I know they don't have that cash so most likely rotating lines of credit. I think they essentially being margin called and need to dump to survive.

that's what i imagine too, and the good ones are essentially bailing them out by buying much cheaper. i can't imagine a black daytona going to a regular end user for 26k just yet (like you said, you have a sellers permit). maybe eventually if things keep getting worse but it seems like too much of a drop too fast

[Rolexguy$]

Originally Posted by kieselguhr

Hopefully when the dust settles, investors and doomsayers alike can move on and the forum can get back to being about watches and not the intrinsic value nonsense.

I know right? It's something we all look forward to or I particularly look forward to.

Also particularly interesting is the value maintained by DJ.

[bin31z]

126613LB Submariner Date Bluesy went for 17.6 in an dealer auction. Stickered as new.

[garyk]

Originally Posted by VegasBaby

The whole thing is just silly. The folks who for the last year plus were complaining about the crazy high prices were only whining because they felt they had a missed an opportunity to bank some profit. They were never Rolex or other high-end Watch Buyers back when things were normal (2017 and prior). They certainly aren’t Watch Buyers now that the market is starting to reset. Watches will soon once again be available to people who are enthusiasts, collectors and, people that actually wear them!

I agree with silly but as a Rolex enthusiast, it really bothered me that because of the insane demand, my AD or in fact several ADs could not get me any of the models I wanted. That changed two months ago today when a new boutique AD near me got me my new green bezel LV. First AD purchase since my 116500 in 2016. Hopefully more avails are coming soon…no interest in watches as an investment. Way more enjoyable as items to wear and enjoy!!

[bin31z]

Originally Posted by huncho

that's what i imagine too, and the good ones are essentially bailing them out by buying much cheaper. i can't imagine a black daytona going to a regular end user for 26k just yet (like you said, you have a sellers permit). maybe eventually if things keep getting worse but it seems like too much of a drop too fast

I think we are getting close. Just saw a two tone black dial daytona go for 16.2, full set, pre-owned. What's surprising is how much 41mm datejusts are still going for. I wonder if it is just a matter of getting a rolex on the wrist for the lowest cost possible becuase yes it is going for like 40% over retail but that's still only 11-12k versus 15+ for any other model.

My AD actually took my name down and told me about 6 months for a mint green 36 datejust or palm motif 36 datejust. I didn't even have to kiss his ring LOL

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by huncho

it seems like too much of a drop too fast

White Daytonas went from $30k to $50k just as fast. Why cant they drop even faster? Escalator up, elevator down, as they say.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

White Daytonas went from $30k to $50k just as fast. Why cant they drop even faster? Escalator up, elevator down, as they say.

yeah i meant both not just the black. obviously if the black goes down that much so will the white lol but just seems a bit much in such a short time personally

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by huncho

are they actually going to end users for that price or is it just dealers doing fire sales because they have to? down 40-50% in 2 months seems kinda unimaginable lol, unless they're naked, but still. feels kinda like you have healthy dealers buying stuff off the ones with huge losses at ridiculously cheap prices and then marking them up

No seller's permit needed. Still sitting there for $118.5k BNIB.