Investors Clock Out As Rolex Demand Cools

[tedo]

Originally Posted by shaunylw

It looks like a lot of dealers are already caught holding the bag. Prices are all over the place. Seeing BLROs still at 30k+ when the reality is closer to 21-22k.


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Yes, was just told the following by prominent seller on the Forum:

…the market is going to get worse, Im going to take a loss on a bunch of pieces. Im not buying anything unless its a steal, not worth the risk…

[JWillard]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

Hmmmm, a couple of years ago, but not recently.

https://asiatimes.com/2022/06/china-...e-us6-billion/

[Fred_Tan]

Originally Posted by JWillard

There are some banks in China that are going insolvent, so far a few smaller banks will not allow depositors to withdrawal money, sooner or later will effect bigger banks in the country.

Chinese of all creed & strata are very paranoid about preserving what little they have in China.
On the surface of CNN/Fox/BBC, especially to outsiders; the 1.5bil population are faceless and only their leaders are portrayed in the media.

On the ground are very very stressed populace stretched by unimaginable property bubble, low income, inflation & unbalanced growth, overpopulation, pollution & lack of gainful is employment & opportunities.

Else how we explain why their top graduates are all in Bay Area working for FAANG and etc in US.

And how we explain why remaining mainland Chinese with means are buying every single property from Toronto to Melbourne, and Oslo to Costa Del Sol.

Basically no one in China wanna risk bond default by their banks, which remain hidden from scrutiny, or RMB devaluation due to NPL in their heavily leveraged banking system or worst, populations shrink due to error in birth policies, emigration and almost zero immigration.

This is explain why they are buying up every single item not nailed to the ground or wall.
Else how we explain $1m Macallan, $2m Air Jordan or $3m Action Comic or the mad rush to queue to enter every Rolex AD in USA on weekdays whenever FedEx dropped their deliveries?

Unless Rolex start to make hundreds of millions of watches like Apple; demand will never be met as the Chinese perceive anything collectible be it Strad cello/violin, or current volume of Marvel comics with multiple key, recently dropped Air Jordan draws, current BTAC/Weller/Pappy/Michter bourbon, new baseball/Pokémon/basketball trading cards and short-wheel-based Porsche as safer bet than RMB.

Some of em are even booking Tesla to be shipped back to China from USA in past few mths.

To those of us dreaming of post sub-prime era where cheaper than MSRP are avail in sale forum; snatch BNIB Rolex steel sports watches, or walk into AD to get one off the shelf with discounts without any waitlist - you can dream on.

As soon as borders restriction in China are lifted, its up & up again for everything you can imagine, even infant baby milk formula

[JWillard]

Originally Posted by Fred_Tan

Chinese of all creed & strata are very paranoid about preserving what little they have in China.
On the surface of CNN/Fox/BBC, especially to outsiders; the 1.5bil population are faceless and only their leaders are portrayed in the media.

On the ground are very very stressed populace stretched by unimaginable property bubble, low income, inflation & unbalanced growth, overpopulation, pollution & lack of gainful is employment & opportunities.

Else how we explain why their top graduates are all in Bay Area working for FAANG and etc in US.

And how we explain why remaining mainland Chinese with means are buying every single property from Toronto to Melbourne, and Oslo to Costa Del Sol.

Basically no one in China wanna risk bond default by their banks, which remain hidden from scrutiny, or RMB devaluation due to NPL in their heavily leveraged banking system or worst, populations shrink due to error in birth policies, emigration and almost zero immigration.

This is explain why they are buying up every single item not nailed to the ground or wall.
Else how we explain $1m Macallan, $2m Air Jordan or $3m Action Comic or the mad rush to queue to enter every Rolex AD in USA on weekdays whenever FedEx dropped their deliveries?

Unless Rolex start to make hundreds of millions of watches like Apple; demand will never be met as the Chinese perceive anything collectible be it Strad cello/violin, or current volume of Marvel comics with multiple key, recently dropped Air Jordan draws, current BTAC/Weller/Pappy/Michter bourbon, new baseball/Pokémon/basketball trading cards and short-wheel-based Porsche as safer bet than RMB.

Some of em are even booking Tesla to be shipped back to China from USA in past few mths.

To those of us dreaming of post sub-prime era where cheaper than MSRP are avail in sale forum; snatch BNIB Rolex steel sports watches, or walk into AD to get one off the shelf with discounts without any waitlist - you can dream on.

As soon as borders restriction in China are lifted, its up & up again for everything you can imagine, even infant baby milk formula

Alright that’s ur view but between banks and the evergrande issue not really looking good in China but what do I know

[Fred_Tan]

Originally Posted by JWillard

Alright that’s ur view but between banks and the evergrande issue not really looking good in China but what do I know

There’s a rather new saying among the Chinese in China:
“When The Tree Shake, The Monkeys Flies”

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by JWillard

https://asiatimes.com/2022/06/china-...e-us6-billion/

From the little I was allowed to read, it only affects 400k people, which is tiny (for China).

[Fred_Tan]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

From the little I was allowed to read, it only affects 400k people, which is tiny (for China).

There’re many unreported stuff.
Either the Chinese or the Arabs fat off the >$100ppb Brent crude price will mop up whatever EU & US can’t swallow.

If that didn’t happen, there’s always Singapore, Japan, Taiwan, SKorea.
1mil watch per year ain’t much as there’s almost 300mil brand conscious consumers in these Tiger economies.

Unless Ebola becomes airborne and kill millions, the dream of seeing AP RO 50th, OP41 green, Daytona white, 50th RG Olive DD, ‘22 YG Green DD, Choco Daytona, ‘22 Green DJ41, Red SD, Deep Blue James Cameron, Rootbeer, Pepsi & Batman which are not display unit, at your AD shelves, when you walk-in, is a dream which will never happen.

It’s like Californians wishing for $2.40/gal gas price.

[Incroyable12]

The Chinese were buying watches for a long time pre-Covid but prices never rose like they did this past year so I think their impact is a bit exaggerated.

Also the Chinese buyers have slightly different tastes--for example most of them don't care for tropical dials or what we might call patina. They're similar to the Japanese in that they want mint examples.

[douglasf13]

n/t

[Fred_Tan]

Originally Posted by Incroyable12

The Chinese were buying watches for a long time pre-Covid but prices never rose like they did this past year so I think their impact is a bit exaggerated.

Also the Chinese buyers have slightly different tastes--for example most of them don't care for tropical dials or what we might call patina. They're similar to the Japanese in that they want mint examples.

The Chinese only want BNIB.
And then they will keep the watch under their bed.
Not once will it be sized or worn.
Occasionally it will be taken out to show their guest when they have visitors

[Incroyable12]

Originally Posted by Fred_Tan

The Chinese only want BNIB.
And then they will keep the watch under their bed.
Not once will it be sized or worn.
Occasionally it will be taken out to show their guest when they have visitors

Yes I'm not sure if there's actually much of a vintage market there unlike Japan for example.

They seem to be only interested in modern watches.

[superpop]

Interestingly most of the higher end homes that were snatched up by Chinese buyers over the last few years for 3-5M in my neighborhood have all been sold. They seem to be selling assets vs hanging on to them. It was pretty weird for a while in the hood to have 30% of the homes sitting empty with no one around but the landscapers and maint guys. Now they are all sold to local tech folk who actually live in them.

[Spurman]

Originally Posted by Fred_Tan

The Chinese only want BNIB.
And then they will keep the watch under their bed.
Not once will it be sized or worn.
Occasionally it will be taken out to show their guest when they have visitors

LOL. Grandpa era. Slowly this is out of fashion.

Though its right that Mainlanders had contributed to the rise in prices of many luxuries stuffs.

Rolex is always sought after by Chinese regardless China Chinese or Indon Chinese, Malaysia Chinese, AMDK chinese, Singapore Chinse, etc.

B4 covid happened, or say from the 2010s, Rolex had seen more mainland buyers. Though I would dare say its not like in 2021 that more mainlanders snap up rolexes.

[Incroyable12]

Originally Posted by Spurman

LOL. Grandpa era. Slowly this is out of fashion.

Though its right that Mainlanders had contributed to the rise in prices of many luxuries stuffs.

Rolex is always sought after by Chinese regardless China Chinese or Indon Chinese, Malaysia Chinese, AMDK chinese, Singapore Chinse, etc.

B4 covid happened, or say from the 2010s, Rolex had seen more mainland buyers. Though I would dare say its not like in 2021 that more mainlanders snap up rolexes.

I once bought a near mint Royal Oak from the '80s with box and papers in Shanghai for $5000 because there was no local audience for watches like that.

[Spurman]

Originally Posted by superpop

Interestingly most of the higher end homes that were snatched up by Chinese buyers over the last few years for 3-5M in my neighborhood have all been sold. They seem to be selling assets vs hanging on to them. It was pretty weird for a while in the hood to have 30% of the homes sitting empty with no one around but the landscapers and maint guys. Now they are all sold to local tech folk who actually live in them.

Same in many countries, Australia, Singapore, HK, Cananda, UK properties being snapped up by rich mainlanders

[Tensai]

Oh my, all this talk about what "the Chinese" do. Amusing.

[malba2366]

Originally Posted by Fred_Tan

Chinese of all creed & strata are very paranoid about preserving what little they have in China.
On the surface of CNN/Fox/BBC, especially to outsiders; the 1.5bil population are faceless and only their leaders are portrayed in the media.

On the ground are very very stressed populace stretched by unimaginable property bubble, low income, inflation & unbalanced growth, overpopulation, pollution & lack of gainful is employment & opportunities.

Else how we explain why their top graduates are all in Bay Area working for FAANG and etc in US.

And how we explain why remaining mainland Chinese with means are buying every single property from Toronto to Melbourne, and Oslo to Costa Del Sol.

Basically no one in China wanna risk bond default by their banks, which remain hidden from scrutiny, or RMB devaluation due to NPL in their heavily leveraged banking system or worst, populations shrink due to error in birth policies, emigration and almost zero immigration.

This is explain why they are buying up every single item not nailed to the ground or wall.
Else how we explain $1m Macallan, $2m Air Jordan or $3m Action Comic or the mad rush to queue to enter every Rolex AD in USA on weekdays whenever FedEx dropped their deliveries?

Unless Rolex start to make hundreds of millions of watches like Apple; demand will never be met as the Chinese perceive anything collectible be it Strad cello/violin, or current volume of Marvel comics with multiple key, recently dropped Air Jordan draws, current BTAC/Weller/Pappy/Michter bourbon, new baseball/Pokémon/basketball trading cards and short-wheel-based Porsche as safer bet than RMB.

Some of em are even booking Tesla to be shipped back to China from USA in past few mths.

To those of us dreaming of post sub-prime era where cheaper than MSRP are avail in sale forum; snatch BNIB Rolex steel sports watches, or walk into AD to get one off the shelf with discounts without any waitlist - you can dream on.

As soon as borders restriction in China are lifted, its up & up again for everything you can imagine, even infant baby milk formula

This type of behavior is completely irrational and will just make all of these assets crash even harder. What you are suggesting is somewhat outrageous...who in their right mind would purchase a Tesla in the US and have it shipped to China for investment purposes? Purchasing mass produced goods (current reference Rolex watches, and Jordan sneakers) is not much more of a sound investment. Strad Violins, 25+ year old Whiskey, rare comic books etc are a bit different because they are extremely rare and not in production.

[Jim P]

Originally Posted by kieselguhr

Hopefully when the dust settles, investors and doomsayers alike can move on and the forum can get back to being about watches and not the intrinsic value nonsense.

[Fred_Tan]

Originally Posted by malba2366

This type of behavior is completely irrational and will just make all of these assets crash even harder. What you are suggesting is somewhat outrageous...who in their right mind would purchase a Tesla in the US and have it shipped to China for investment purposes? Purchasing mass produced goods (current reference Rolex watches, and Jordan sneakers) is not much more of a sound investment. Strad Violins, 25+ year old Whiskey, rare comic books etc are a bit different because they are extremely rare and not in production.

It’s not irrational to invest in current releases of in-print comics, trading cards, when u think how ppl can bid thousands and even millions for modern art of unknown artists, NFT, Crypto.

Don’t cite me on the Tesla. Ask our SoCAL frenz…
Sincerely I am not surprised as Tesla has stopped many production lines in China.
And owning a Tesla is a status symbol now in Asia.

If they can flip regular & current production 2021 Colonel EH Taylor Marriage and in-print Pokémon and fantasy trading cards for 100x MSRP, anything is possible.

You have not seen how much Chinese investors are paying for Palo Alto in California single family homes nestled between Waverley, Byrant, Cowper & Embarcadero yet.
It’s $10-100m for what was $600G less than 13yrs ago.

This makes $200G for a RO 50th anniversary seems like a bargain.

https://www.latimes.com/business/sto...s-car-flipping

https://supplychaindigital.com/logis...chain-problems

[Madman37]

Originally Posted by dwaine99

If it's the most boring, why is there such a long wait list to buy it at MSRP?

i mean the all black bezel one not all of them. That’s the worst most boring watch on earth. Rolex must have had one of their blue sky creative sessions when they designed that one. You can see that definitely.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Incroyable12

I once bought a near mint Royal Oak from the '80s with box and papers in Shanghai for $5000 because there was no local audience for watches like that.

congrats! Patek Nautilus for $10k complete lnib. Smaller (standard at the time) PP skeleton I saw in Barcelona used for $18k, no buyers. For some relatively-recent enthusiasts this is their first bubble, and let's admit it was a doozy! Number three for me, it's all good... enjoy your time.

[bonovox]

[AmirudinAbduk]

It’s good that no matter what’s happening around the world, chinese will always save the day.

[pursang_]

Scoped out Moda today:

Naked Panda sold for 27k fast

PM Subs moving slightly below retail

A lot of Hulks being dumped it seems. Sitting around $20k.

Pepsi moving at $20,900

"cheapest on the market", "wicked cheap", "too cheap", "these are getting cheap"

Jokes about price fixing.

124060 sitting at $12k

Jubilee Batman sitting at $18k

Turquoise OP36 sitting at $18.7k "Reduced!!! Must sell today!!"

[Vince_76]

Prices are still very inflated, but tracking Moda the past few months, the drop has been significant. There’s really no cogent argument that we’re near the bottom either. Good news for enthusiasts, IMO

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Prices are still very inflated, but tracking Moda the past few months, the drop has been significant. There’s really no cogent argument that we’re near the bottom either. Good news for enthusiasts, IMO

Patience. Still a ways to go before the bottom.

[Db7566]

Originally Posted by Tensai

Oh my, all this talk about what "the Chinese" do. Amusing.

Haha.


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[Bizcut1]

Originally Posted by malba2366

This type of behavior is completely irrational and will just make all of these assets crash even harder. What you are suggesting is somewhat outrageous...who in their right mind would purchase a Tesla in the US and have it shipped to China for investment purposes? Purchasing mass produced goods (current reference Rolex watches, and Jordan sneakers) is not much more of a sound investment. Strad Violins, 25+ year old Whiskey, rare comic books etc are a bit different because they are extremely rare and not in production.

Yes, but you are biased from your Western cultured, life-long influences...nothing wrong with that, it just is what it is.

But, it limits your perspective to what you would do, how you feel, how you would act...anything else is "irrational" to you.

[Turbo Racer]

Originally Posted by pursang_

Scoped out Moda today:

Naked Panda sold for 27k fast

PM Subs moving slightly below retail

A lot of Hulks being dumped it seems. Sitting around $20k.

Pepsi moving at $20,900

"cheapest on the market", "wicked cheap", "too cheap", "these are getting cheap"

Jokes about price fixing.

124060 sitting at $12k

Jubilee Batman sitting at $18k

Turquoise OP36 sitting at $18.7k "Reduced!!! Must sell today!!"

Nice update. I did see a couple of John Mayer at $76 and $80k each. Full sets.

Vco blue dial 34-5k full set not moving.
Large swaths of royal oaks in a variety of guises also trending down. 15500st grey full set $45k

Chnr 20.5

Interestingly, there were no price updates on whiskey futures for the Chinese market.

[Fred_Tan]

One of those threads where self-centered/selfish folks who live in the world of self-entitlement try to dish the mart by posting price collapse based on selective data from last few mths.

You should go to Mumbai, Hanoi, Shenzhen, Jakarta & etc to check the price of all hot models in their resellers display shelves and how fast they move.

The pre-owned/LNIB world don’t revolve around some watch sales forum, auction, MODA & Chrono24 prices