US CC and Household Debt At Record Levels

[pickettt]

Originally Posted by Toony

I’m right there with you Seth. I’m a lot more risk averse at this point in my life. There’s no perfect way but this way helps me sleep at night. My best friend is so leveraged he is on the brink of a nervous break down. But he loves the wild swings. But the swing down right now is hurting.

Likewise. I know with what I do have, I could have (arguably easily) turned into 8 figures had I been interested in a little risk. It's just not for me. I've worked hard to put my family in a position of financial security, and many of us don't get a second chance to do that.

[Hard_Six]

I agree that debt isn't necessarily a bad thing as long as its managed properly. That said, I'm very happy that at this point in time, the only debt I carry is a single mortgage. I sleep well at night as a result. Given everything that's going on, I'm grateful for that.

[DocHorton]

In purely monetary terms, paying cash for everything the last 15 years has been a very poor financial decision. The time to pay cash will be the next 15 years when rates are high.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by beshannon

And if you look at history this is a cycle that repeats itself. Nothing new this time either

True, it's simply part of the system's cycles / waves. Some waves are simply bigger than others. It's a feature, not a bug.

HODL

[derekhayden]

Originally Posted by Ferdelious

I just want to know how everyone is affording to travel these days. Airline tickets, hotels, rental cars, gas and food costs are through the roof. I'm sitting on the sidelines and doing staycations until it all settles down.

I am right there with you. My family is going on one vacation this year and that is only because it was reserved and paid for in late 2021. I have plenty of friends that continue to spend like crazy and IMO will regret it by year end.

[GradyPhilpott]

I have no debt.

It's a good feeling.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by pickettt

Likewise. I know with what I do have, I could have (arguably easily) turned into 8 figures had I been interested in a little risk. It's just not for me. I've worked hard to put my family in a position of financial security, and many of us don't get a second chance to do that.

Agree. Many if not most of my peers live a much larger life than I do. Nicer things on credit, leveraged investments, etc.

My hat is off to them. But I am happy living off the marry go round.

[uscmatt99]

Originally Posted by Ferdelious

I just want to know how everyone is affording to travel these days. Airline tickets, hotels, rental cars, gas and food costs are through the roof. I'm sitting on the sidelines and doing staycations until it all settles down.

Travel costs are unbelievable right now. A roundtrip from ORD to SFO and back has historically been doable for $250-450 per ticket. On our preferred airline the best we could find was over $900 per ticket with a red-eye return flight, or $1200 to return in the afternoon. This is between 2 hubs on AA. We ended up lucking into flights on Southwest for around $600 per person using alternative airports (MDW, OAK). It's been priced like this for weeks/months with no price dips that you'd typically see. And this was with somewhat flexible travel dates on either end of the trip. Something has got to give, but I get the feeling that there is a scramble to extract as much money from people's pockets as possible before the poo hits the fan.

[SBR]

Originally Posted by Ferdelious

I just want to know how everyone is affording to travel these days. Airline tickets, hotels, rental cars, gas and food costs are through the roof. I'm sitting on the sidelines and doing staycations until it all settles down.

I'm with you on that one. Even eating out at a middle of the road restaurant has become painful once the check arrives. It's not sustainable in my opinion.

[stockae92]

Doesn't matter if its good times or bad times, I keep using my CC for everything, and I never carry over balance to the next bill. Simple as that.

[mmutte]

I’m certainly not an economist, nor am I in finance—far from it.
With that being said, gas prices and inflation are at all time highs. It’s very tough for many folks right now. Getting to and from work is ridiculously, outrageously expensive.
Not all credit is used for ‘luxury’ items, particularly during these times.
Look at a gas price graph, it’s honestly not surprising that household debt has jumped by 20% over the past several months. If you have to buy gas to go to work or to buy groceries and you don’t have money in the bank but have a credit card, it’s an unfortunate spot to be in, but it’s your only one.
All I’m saying is don’t always interpret graphs, numbers etc how they are portrayed.
There’s always more to it.

[airchitect]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Cue the LendingTree commercial.



Wishing everyone safe travels during the current wave of systemic financial instability.

Best commercial ever because it’s true


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[airchitect]

The problem with debt, no matter what anyone says, is that it REQUIRES you to have the income to cover it and then some. Lose your income, you lose your as$. If you have debt pay it off.

I’ve been debt free…have a little atm. I prefer zero


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[TheVTCGuy]

The good news: I have no CC debt and no bills other then standard living expenses (including a mortgage).

The bad news: I don’t have any money either.

[offrdmania]

My revolving debt has been paid off for years. I only have living debt like a car payment, insurance, etc.
I have one credit card for emergencies or for large purchases so that I have fraud protection, it instantly gets paid off on the next billing cycle. The other cards that are paid off are in a drawer in my office.
I only use debit cards. If the cash isnt in my account then I dont buy anything.

[Moondoggy]

I don't care what anyone says, but no debt is better then having debt.

[dowheelies]

Originally Posted by Moondoggy

I don't care what anyone says, but no debt is better then having debt.

I agree but unfortunately I see many that aren’t scared of the debt because they just bail on it. I know quite a few people that have done it more than once. Crazy but you know what, they still buy new cars, get CC’s and even mortgages soon, if not immediately, after walking away. They pay companies to defend and settle for .01’s on the dollar, deal with the phone calls and carry on. I couldn’t sleep at night but they can. I foresee a lot of this coming in the next year or so.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by Ferdelious

I just want to know how everyone is affording to travel these days. Airline tickets, hotels, rental cars, gas and food costs are through the roof. I'm sitting on the sidelines and doing staycations until it all settles down.

No idea, other than credit.

I was listening to some of the financial news channels the other day while driving around and they literally can't figure it out either.

People will not stop spending.

The economic news and vibes are terrible. Prices are through the roof on pretty much everything. Investments are down down and more down. Crypto is collapsing...etc..etc.

As they discussed on the programs (and I have seen with my own eyeballs) Restaurants are packed, roads are still packed, my friend was in Charlotte for work yesterday and he said the airport was busier than during the holidays.

Malls are packed. I saw a dude buy a $30K fountain pen @ Montblanc boutique a few weeks ago.

What is going on? The stimulus checks given out to individuals the last couple of years weren't alotta money...something like $3200 total for those who qualified and got all three...I can't see that having that much sustainable impact....

At least people aren't getting laid off in droves like last downturn...

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

No idea, other than credit.

I was listening to some of the financial news channels the other day while driving around and they literally can't figure it out either.

People will not stop spending.

The economic news and vibes are terrible. Prices are through the roof on pretty much everything. Investments are down down and more down. Crypto is collapsing...etc..etc.

As they discussed on the programs (and I have seen with my own eyeballs) Restaurants are packed, roads are still packed, my friend was in Charlotte for work yesterday and he said the airport was busier than during the holidays.

Malls are packed. I saw a dude buy a $30K fountain pen @ Montblanc boutique a few weeks ago.

What is going on? The stimulus checks given out to individuals the last couple of years weren't alotta money...something like $3200 total for those who qualified and got all three...I can't see that having that much sustainable impact....

At least people aren't getting laid off in droves like last downturn...

I too am at a loss Fleet.

I am sure there is a lot of pain for minimum wage workers that are trying to figure out how to put food on the table and also buy gas to get to work. And there are a heck of a lot of homeless. But how do middle income Americans keep spending. I have to believe it is credit, the cost of which is about to jump.

[AzPaul]

I've run up some huge credit debt this year, more than I ever have in the past, but it's all been on stolen cards so it shouldn't affect my own personal credit ratings.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

The good news: I have no CC debt and no bills other then standard living expenses (including a mortgage).

Knew you were brilliant Paul. Bravo! Same here for decades, debt-free all the way (never had a mortgage, we own outright).

The bad news: I don’t have any money either.

Wait, there's a sale at Tumi... :)

--------

On another more On Topic note, showed my Muse last night the math behind raising bankster VIG (i mean interest rates) and how much that adds to a normal home mortgage, she was in shock how high bankster VIG is.

Just wait until the United States of America's National Debt needs to be 'paid back' (ROFLOL), as it looks like the USA has entered the Lending Tree commercial zone about only being able to pay the interest on their outstanding Trillions in loans.

[pickettt]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

I too am at a loss Fleet.

I am sure there is a lot of pain for minimum wage workers that are trying to figure out how to put food on the table and also buy gas to get to work. And there are a heck of a lot of homeless. But how do middle income Americans keep spending. I have to believe it is credit, the cost of which is about to jump.

It’s been made clear, by example, that balance sheets don’t need to add up. This is going to sound like it’s coming out of left field, but I’m going to throw it out there; I think more than just students believe their debt is going to be “forgiven.” And I think there they are somewhat correct in that, however, it’s a Devil’s Deal.

[Star Ferry]

Originally Posted by pickettt

It’s been made clear, by example, that balance sheets don’t need to add up. This is going to sound like it’s coming out of left field, but I’m going to throw it out there; I think more than just students believe their debt is going to be “forgiven.” And I think there they are somewhat correct in that, however, it’s a Devil’s Deal.

Another thing nobody discusses in debt “forgiveness” debates is that cancelled debt is taxable income. How are broke people going to pay the taxman?

[GoingPlaces]

Originally Posted by mmutte

I’m certainly not an economist, nor am I in finance—far from it.
With that being said, gas prices and inflation are at all time highs. It’s very tough for many folks right now. Getting to and from work is ridiculously, outrageously expensive.
Not all credit is used for ‘luxury’ items, particularly during these times.
Look at a gas price graph, it’s honestly not surprising that household debt has jumped by 20% over the past several months. If you have to buy gas to go to work or to buy groceries and you don’t have money in the bank but have a credit card, it’s an unfortunate spot to be in, but it’s your only one.
All I’m saying is don’t always interpret graphs, numbers etc how they are portrayed.
There’s always more to it.

Agreed, so much here about not carrying debt as if it's easy for those living on the margin. Inflation is eating away at savings so it's only natural the trajectory carries into debt. People have to get to work and feed families, it's become very expensive out there.

More fast food, perhaps fewer groceries and more CC debt. Expect home equity loans to start swelling as well. Such steep inflation will wipe out lots of household wealth. IMO it's just the beginning.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by Ferdelious

I just want to know how everyone is affording to travel these days. Airline tickets, hotels, rental cars, gas and food costs are through the roof. I'm sitting on the sidelines and doing staycations until it all settles down.

My thought is that there is also a large portion of the population that are unaffected by this market correction.

Coming out of the pandemic, many have increased their wealth. White collar workers who were able to work from home saw there wages unaffected, portfolios increased and boomed, and real estate did the same.

Sure a market correction affects everyone, but if you aren’t selling your stocks or your real estate it doesn’t really affect you. It’s a paper “loss” but you really don’t lose a thing if you don’t sell.

Earners with the same or in a lot of cases more than pre-pandemic, have a lot of money built up and pent up willingness to travel buy luxury goods, cars etc etc

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by brandrea

My thought is that there is also a large portion of the population that are unaffected by this market correction.

Coming out of the pandemic, many have increased their wealth. White collar workers who were able to work from home saw there wages unaffected, portfolios increased and boomed, and real estate did the same.

Sure a market correction affects everyone, but if you aren’t selling your stocks or your real estate it doesn’t really affect you. It’s a paper “loss” but you really don’t lose a thing if you don’t sell.

Earners with the same or in a lot of cases more than pre-pandemic, have a lot of money built up and pent up willingness to travel buy luxury goods, cars etc etc

I do agree with this. While there are many who are struggling with inflation and such, there are also many for whom these negative economic concerns are pretty much a complete non-factor. The cost increases can easily be absorbed and don't serve as any impediment to lifestyles.

The general sentiment to those who are even paying attention are that Investment losses aren't real losses as stated above and Stonks always go up again, so why be down about it?

Plus there are more ways to earn money in the digital economy than ever....so that may be a factor as well.

[77T]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

I am fortunate not to have any debt. I am also a believer that the Fed is behind the curve and needs to seriously increase rates to try to get a grip on inflation. But I fear there is going to be a lot of pain for the average household.

Thoughts?

My thought is the Fed has grossly missed some new elements in their economic modeling. The amount of consumer demand driven by a false confidence in digital asset valuations, easy credit, and government program spending.

Fintech, Exchanges, and Banks are now into this deeper than we may realize.

The total uncollateralized debt is now reflected in bonds issued by the Treasury, Lenders, and others. But we don’t really have a handle on what multiple of forward GDP this represents. If the Treasury was to walk into a bank with its balance sheet, I’d expect the banker would say, “You’re worth more dead than alive.”

This shadow looms over the capital markets, money markets and fixed-income securities funds (both Mutual and ETF-based derivatives).

Real World trouble/pain could result from a virtual currency debacle.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Sephiroth]

I’m just wondering when the student loan holiday will end.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by 77T

My thought is the Fed has grossly missed some new elements in their economic modeling. The amount of consumer demand driven by a false confidence in digital asset valuations, easy credit, and government program spending.

...

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Agree Paul. Even putting the new issues aside, I am still amazed at the lengthy buying period with effective zero/nominal interest rate, stimulus and then foreseeable supply chain issues.

[ts3]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Agree Paul. Even putting the new issues aside, I am still amazed at the lengthy buying period with effective zero/nominal interest rate, stimulus and then foreseeable supply chain issues.

Y'all can consider yourselves lucky living across the pond.

Just days after the ECB announced initial interest rate hikes for later in the year as well as the end of their government bond purchases the spreads between German and Italian bonds had widened enough to require an emergency meeting this week.

This will end badly. Question is just how bad.