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Old 25 April 2019, 12:26 PM   #61
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This thread just blew my mind
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Old 25 April 2019, 12:44 PM   #62
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Just a gut feeling.

I think that Rolex will beat the bubble and let out some of these piece that have long wait lists. The bubble will come, and grey markets will go red, but Rolex has already seen the writing on the wall.

I bet we’ll see Daytona quotas being met. I bet we’ll see SkyDwellers being met and many of the SS lists as well. Why? Because they know how much are needed, and they see the bubble burst coming.
Its free to hope, and i hope and wish with you.
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Old 25 April 2019, 01:25 PM   #63
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Not going to happen, IMO. And this is all speculation. Time will tell.
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Old 25 April 2019, 02:08 PM   #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Turnaround View Post
Just a gut feeling.

I think that Rolex will beat the bubble and let out some of these piece that have long wait lists. The bubble will come, and grey markets will go red, but Rolex has already seen the writing on the wall.

I bet we’ll see Daytona quotas being met. I bet we’ll see SkyDwellers being met and many of the SS lists as well. Why? Because they know how much are needed, and they see the bubble burst coming.
Dream and optimism are some of the ingredients which keep us going through the ‘hardtime’ of ‘SS Rolex at MSRP’ drought. :D
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Old 25 April 2019, 05:12 PM   #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ricardo-sf View Post
true - i think you would have preferred i use an index such as this to backup my point:

https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual...formance/vtwsx

the vanguard whole world stock fund

average yearly returns for the last 10 years are: 12% annually (<--- that is pretty crazy)

i think that pretty much explains the shortage in luxury goods like rolex.
I'm no trader so I don't really understand market figures. However, from the indices I do know of FTSE and HSI, they don't return the figures you refer to.

In addition, its all and well saying people are wealthier because of the market but your presumption doesn't take into account inflation and actual cost of living.

It's all and well your portfolio has increased by 10% annually (your figures) but when your daily life, groceries, housing etc also increases, the gains in your portfolio are wiped out.

Using a 10year history is a good scale to show growth but this means you are starting from 2009, which also coincides with the aftermath of Leemans collapse.... And the lowest point of the world stock market in recent history.

So yes, looking at the charts, a re-adjustment is overdue but will it affect demand.... I doubt it very much.
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Old 25 April 2019, 05:20 PM   #66
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Old 25 April 2019, 05:24 PM   #67
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i think the point is that alot of people have money to spend on watches. -- so we have to wait until there is less money to spend on watches .. or more watches ..

we know rolex doesn't change their supply at a large rate .. so we're stuck waiting for people to have less spending cash.
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Old 25 April 2019, 05:26 PM   #68
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I have a feeling we’ll see some of these wait lists increase.

Just a gut feeling
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Old 25 April 2019, 06:53 PM   #69
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I wish I did but I don't share OP's optimism.

In my crystal ball I see an ever increasing demand worldwide, China incl. Hong-Kong being perhaps the biggest player right now but other countries will follow suit.

If supply remains stable which is to be expected, chances of being able to buy another sports steel piece from ADs will become slimmer. So I hang on to my sport steel pieces, enjoy the heck out of them and don't count on any steel addition in the foreseeable future. It's FUBAR.

It won't get better unless a massive recession hits us all and demand abates, if we can call that "better" considering we'd have serious things to worry about.
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Old 21 May 2019, 05:55 PM   #70
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....so you’re telling me there’s a chance!
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Old 21 May 2019, 06:32 PM   #71
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VicLeChic View Post
I wish I did but I don't share OP's optimism.

In my crystal ball I see an ever increasing demand worldwide, China incl. Hong-Kong being perhaps the biggest player right now but other countries will follow suit.

If supply remains stable which is to be expected, chances of being able to buy another sports steel piece from ADs will become slimmer. So I hang on to my sport steel pieces, enjoy the heck out of them and don't count on any steel addition in the foreseeable future. It's FUBAR.

It won't get better unless a massive recession hits us all and demand abates, if we can call that "better" considering we'd have serious things to worry about.
I won't even pretend to understand most of the financial 'speak' within these posts, and am happy to leave this to the experts. Even if a big recession does come (and hopefully not given the much wider implications beyond wrist watch availability), it's hard to see things going back entirely to the way they were in terms of greater SS availability - am just going to stick with thee ones I have for now!
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Old 21 May 2019, 06:34 PM   #72
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I have a feeling we’ll be seeing unicorns flying around soon. But I’m the eternal optimist.
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Old 21 May 2019, 08:49 PM   #73
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I like the power of positive thinking too, OP!
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Old 22 May 2019, 01:19 AM   #74
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I don’t think there will be a bubble like most people are expecting. The prices might go down a bit for the BLNR, BLRO or the LV but it wouldn’t go down to a point where you would see them at retail and the watches will be available on display.


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Old 11 June 2019, 01:53 AM   #75
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There are over 1 billion Chinese and whilst I appreciate that the vast majority of them are not remotely wealthy enough to buy a Rolex, each year another section of the emerging middle class are looking to express their new found affordability of high end luxury products from Europe and the US.
They aren't suddenly going to stop wanting what they have been aspiring towards just because it's not readily available. In fact, quite the opposite.

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Old 11 June 2019, 03:53 AM   #76
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People want what they cannot have. Bet that if they increase ss sport and decrease for example DJ everyone would want a DJ and you would see 15 posts a day here from people wining their AD not having a singe DJ in stock:)
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Old 11 June 2019, 04:05 AM   #77
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The current market situation for the professional models has Rolex very comfortable selling out their whole production runs very quickly, unlike the other watches. Why would you want to return to window showcasing those watches all the charm will be gone. Devaluation of an asset is never good.
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Old 11 June 2019, 04:24 AM   #78
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I suspect I am not the only Rolex owner that would like to buy a new watch, but absolutely refuses to contribute to the black marketeers retirement fund?

Markets up or down, Geneva alleged production numbers up or not, I dont
give a monkeys. I'll not buy a new watch, unless it's at MRSP (or less).
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