I have a feeling we’ll see some of these wait lists reduced.

[Turnaround]

Just a gut feeling.

I think that Rolex will beat the bubble and let out some of these piece that have long wait lists. The bubble will come, and grey markets will go red, but Rolex has already seen the writing on the wall.

I bet we’ll see Daytona quotas being met. I bet we’ll see SkyDwellers being met and many of the SS lists as well. Why? Because they know how much are needed, and they see the bubble burst coming.

[DoctorA]

Hmmmmm when did rolex ever do that?

[GradyPhilpott]

I think what we'll see before increases in production is a decrease in demand.

I can't help but believe that the crisis is driven in no small measure by those who are on the bandwagon, because the professional models are hotter than ever and that many of those will lose interest and go for other brands or start to spend their discretionary income on other forms of conspicuous consumption.

People have noted that the Chinese are a big market that might be insatiable and that does present a problem to my hypothesis, but at the same time, trends can change anywhere, even China.

[swils8610]

Uh have you been sniffing glue?


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[AOpike1868]

Originally Posted by GradyPhilpott

I think what we'll see before increases in production is a decrease in demand.

I can't help but believe that the crisis is driven in no small measure by those who are on the bandwagon, because the professional models are hotter than ever and that many of those will lose interest and go for other brands or start to spend their discretionary income on other forms of conspicuous consumption.

People have noted that the Chinese are a big market that might be insatiable and that does present a problem to my hypothesis, but at the same time, trends can change anywhere, even China.

"This" - Next 20 Posters

[mgsooner]

....so you’re telling me there’s a chance!

[Turnaround]

Originally Posted by GradyPhilpott

I think what we'll see before increases in production is a decrease in demand.

All speculation of course, but want to entertain a simple, yet mature discourse.

I feel if they let the flood gates open for a bit, consumers will feel confident to purchase and the Rolex stance of holding at MRSP will sell off much of the wait lists that currently hold firm. Then “pop”, goes the bubble. Debts need to be paid off, housing markets will halt or flounder, and Rolex’s wait has paid off. Have they done this before? No, but they have have a lot of experience playing the market, for which they own.

[Coopdog]

I think this is wishful thinking. In my opinion, which is obviously just an opinion, Rolex called a global pullback in demand starting late 2017 and it didn’t happen. They have stuck to their guns for two years of customer complaints with a frothy economy and everyone and their mom wanting a Daytona. If they release supply now and the pullback does happen, they will look and feel like morons. Sometimes it’s really hard to give up on a bad idea in a corporate environment. Also the consequences of switching and being wrong are more bad than the benefits of switching and being right or consequences of staying the course.
My gut tells me that this has resulted in so much watch news publicity and so much crazy demand that it will become their new strategy. Or they will hike prices by a lot and then let out a bit more inventory.

[Turnaround]

Originally Posted by mgsooner

....so you’re telling me there’s a chance!

I think if you’re on a list, hold on and you’ll be paying MRSP. Better make sure you’re ready to go though.

[GradyPhilpott]

Originally Posted by Turnaround

All speculation of course, but want to entertain a simple, yet mature discourse.

I feel if they let the flood gates open for a bit, consumers will feel confident to purchase and the Rolex stance of holding at MRSP will sell off much of the wait lists that currently hold firm. Then “pop”, goes the bubble. Debts need to be paid off, housing markets will halt or flounder, and Rolex’s wait has paid off. Have they done this before? No, but they have have a lot of experience playing the market, for which they own.

Well, that's as valid an opinion as any, since no one knows what a Rolex will do, but I'm unaware of Rolex doing such a thing, ever, and is quite antithetical to their history and philosophy.

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[Turnaround]

Originally Posted by Coopdog

I think this is wishful thinking. In my opinion, which is obviously just an opinion, Rolex called a global pullback in demand starting late 2017 and it didn’t happen. They have stuck to their guns for two years of customer complaints with a frothy economy and everyone and their mom wanting a Daytona. If they release supply now and the pullback does happen, they will look and feel like morons. Sometimes it’s really hard to give up on a bad idea in a corporate environment. Also the consequences of switching and being wrong are more bad than the benefits of switching and being right or consequences of staying the course.
My gut tells me that this has resulted in so much watch news publicity and so much crazy demand that it will become their new strategy. Or they will hike prices by a lot and then let out a bit more inventory.

I see it as getting ready for the next stage of generating a demand like we have not seen yet.

If they release the demand, for a short, but long enough time before the economy tanks for a while (as it always does), they sell off their supply and also build up a new demand in the wake of sales.

[Coopdog]

Originally Posted by Turnaround

I see it as getting ready for the next stage of generating a demand like we have not seen yet.

If they release the demand, for a short, but long enough time before the economy tanks for a while (as it always does), they sell off their supply and also build up a new demand in the wake of sales.

I respect your opinion but I see it the other way around. If they keep supply tight enough to keep secondary markets at premiums on the “enthusiast” models, it adds another selling point to their watches - value retention. We don’t like to admit it but it makes it easier to buy a $10k watch on a whim if you know you can sell it if you need to. If (when) the economy starts to turn I expect they will pull it in even further. To maintain the value proposition.

We underestimate the “side-effects” of this shortage - how many times per year do you think a watch guy talks to his Omega AD? We’ve got people on this forum visiting ADs in every state and country they visit to try to “get lucky.” Retail is about traffic. They are gonna end up selling a shit ton more datejusts simply because people are always going into their stores. Models that weren’t popular before are now hitting grail status just because they are the ones leftover (Explorer II used to be rather unpopular outside its cult following...).


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[spoon-turbo]

It might be correct to a certain extent.

Looking at the gmt line for example, Rolex discontinued 3 variants (LN, TT and YG). But only added 1 variant (meteorite dial). Therefore, if total number of production for gmt line remains the same, then we will see more BLNR and BLROs becoming available via ADs.

[Pay M3]

Originally Posted by GradyPhilpott

I think what we'll see before increases in production is a decrease in demand.

I can't help but believe that the crisis is driven in no small measure by those who are on the bandwagon, because the professional models are hotter than ever and that many of those will lose interest and go for other brands or start to spend their discretionary income on other forms of conspicuous consumption.

People have noted that the Chinese are a big market that might be insatiable and that does present a problem to my hypothesis, but at the same time, trends can change anywhere, even China.

Agree 100%, I’m already starting to ponder other brands or just say forget it altogether.

[johnjm]

Originally Posted by Turnaround

Just a gut feeling.

I think that Rolex will beat the bubble and let out some of these piece that have long wait lists. The bubble will come, and grey markets will go red, but Rolex has already seen the writing on the wall.

I bet we’ll see Daytona quotas being met. I bet we’ll see SkyDwellers being met and many of the SS lists as well. Why? Because they know how much are needed, and they see the bubble burst coming.

What utter rubbish

Rolex doesn’t care about a watch bubble.


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[ricardo-sf]

The SP500 is up 25% YTD .. (partly helped by the dip in dec) .. where do you think its going for the next 8 months in this year?

(BTW - if you know the answer to this, then you should be able to make enough money to buy as many BLRO's at market prices without batting a eye)

The bull market has been going on for so long, most people have forgotten what 2007 looked and felt like. -- demand for luxury goods is at all time high ..

who knows when the next real correction is coming -- discretionary spending will shrink .(there will still be people buying plenty of rolexes) one day when portfolios take a 30% - 40% loss ..

i think thats what will clear out the waiting lists. -- you'll still have a hard time finding rolexes (thats the new normal).. but you'll be able to buy the watch you want by just waiting a few months.

the current situation will hold until something changes.. either the demand drops, and it would take a global slowdown for that to happen, given that rolex is such a global status symbol, or supply increases.. from what i understand rolex does not have a track record of radically changing supply to meet demand.

[ricardo-sf]

-- One other thing that to keep in mind regarding the BLRO .. the model is only 1 year old, demand is probably at peak for this model (or has peaked) .. there is going to be a time in the future (3 yrs?, 5 yrs?) when you'll be able to buy one from an AD without much issue.. there will be another hot new item from Rolex by then .. (probably a sub on jubilee lol)

[Lord Hectic]

One thing i know is that Rolex as a brand and there AD network have fed there 'whale' customers. In doing so they have also fed other watch brands too.

[brucethemanlee]

Originally Posted by Lord Hectic

One thing i know is that Rolex as a brand and there AD network have fed there 'whale' customers. In doing so they have also fed other watch brands too.

I’m not a whale but I do feel full :)

As to the OPs post? I think this is new norm. Nothing to indicate Rolex is doing anything about meeting current demand of SS models. In speaking with my AD there was a blip early in the year with more pieces in Q1 to catch up a bit to Xmas but now has slowed down again


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[Seibei]

Originally Posted by Turnaround

Just a gut feeling.

I think that Rolex will beat the bubble and let out some of these piece that have long wait lists. The bubble will come, and grey markets will go red, but Rolex has already seen the writing on the wall.

I bet we’ll see Daytona quotas being met. I bet we’ll see SkyDwellers being met and many of the SS lists as well. Why? Because they know how much are needed, and they see the bubble burst coming.

Yep, Rolex is just going to quickly build 3 new factories in China and all this will come to pass!!!

Ain't gonna happen, op.

[Greg 59]

Lots of very interesting and valid points of view. I can see good argument for all the opinions aired . I guess the simple fact is, none of us know for certainty what lies around the corner. However, I want to believe that we will see an end to the current trend where "money rules". I've always found that very distasteful.

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[ninjin]

Originally Posted by ricardo-sf

The SP500 is up 25% YTD .. (partly helped by the dip in dec) .. where do you think its going for the next 8 months in this year?

It's all and well quoting the SP500 but Rolex are not just sold in the USA. USA I imagine takes a fraction of the allocation compared to the rest of the World.

I think Rolex Grey prices will not move much in the foreseeable future but taking only the SP500 as reference and not other Countries stock markets is very blinkered and dangerous.

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by Turnaround

Just a gut feeling.

I think that Rolex will beat the bubble and let out some of these piece that have long wait lists. The bubble will come, and grey markets will go red, but Rolex has already seen the writing on the wall.

I bet we’ll see Daytona quotas being met. I bet we’ll see SkyDwellers being met and many of the SS lists as well. Why? Because they know how much are needed, and they see the bubble burst coming.

Mesmerizing post.

[zengineer]

I think once you base your theory on the idea that Rolex wants to "fix" or even thinks there is a problem, your predictions are flawed.



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[Pw92676]

Hope you are correct but not betting on it.

[johnjm]

Originally Posted by ninjin

It's all and well quoting the SP500 but Rolex are not just sold in the USA. USA I imagine takes a fraction of the allocation compared to the rest of the World.

I think Rolex Grey prices will not move much in the foreseeable future but taking only the SP500 as reference and not other Countries stock markets is very blinkered and dangerous.

A fraction? Really?

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[AK797]

Originally Posted by Turnaround

Just a gut feeling.

I think that Rolex will beat the bubble and let out some of these piece that have long wait lists. The bubble will come, and grey markets will go red, but Rolex has already seen the writing on the wall.

I bet we’ll see Daytona quotas being met. I bet we’ll see SkyDwellers being met and many of the SS lists as well. Why? Because they know how much are needed, and they see the bubble burst coming.

Rolex See? You better tell them to wake up first as they slept thru Basel. No, they just go with the flow and are hibernating thru this crazy market and it has worked out so well for them, far better than if they had planned or manipulated anything, so I don't think they are going to put their great big clumsy strategy hands into this now, the only thing they have tried was sticker and warranty fiddling and that didn't work at all. They know now to do nothing and let things play out.

[derekhayden]

Originally Posted by Pay M3

Agree 100%, I’m already starting to ponder other brands or just say forget it altogether.

This 100%. While Rolex is the brand that originally got me into watches 20 plus years ago, I don't need them anymore. I love Rolex and hate to say it but if I am waiting a year plus on a list it's going to be for a PP or AP.

[acfcheung]

Can't tell if this is a joke

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[watchwatcher]

I have a feeling we're going to see unicorns with rainbows coming out of their butts, too.

Both theories, yours and mine, are based on the same amount of factual information.