15202st

[Mikelikslurpee]

The past year has been a crazy market with the 15202st following in the 5711’s footsteps.
These days new 15202sts price around 30k with grey with ad’s having them scarce ala 5711 levels.
Do you guys think this trend continues?






Instagram: serialflipper

126710 CHNR
116519 Daytona wg
5960/1a
5172/1a
5296g
Octa calendrier
15202st
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[tonupbklyn]

100%

[GB-man]

Nice shot. It’s easily the most photogenic watch I’ve ever owned.

[KKO]

Beautiful shot Mike. I do think the 15202ST gray market prices will continue to climb. Ditto for your FPJ CB.

[T3F]

My prediction is that there's still a bit more to go before the ceiling is hit, and then they'll eventually end up back to where they were a year or two ago -- around retail.

They'll continue to climb as long as the 5711 prices hold up. I think people not being able to get a 5711 -- and not wanting to pay an absolutely ridiculous $50k for one on the secondary market -- has driven a lot of people towards the 15202. I personally believe, after spending some time with both the 5711 and 15202, that the 15202 is the better-executed, more versatile watch. Of the owners of both watches that I've seen address which they liked better, the majority have a preference for the 15202. As such, I'm predicting that the gap in secondary market price between the two will close, ending up with the 5711 being in the $37-43k range and the 15202 being in the $31-37k range.

And then the economy will dip, and everything will be back to where it was a few years ago.

[Mikelikslurpee]

Originally Posted by KKO

Beautiful shot Mike. I do think the 15202ST gray market prices will continue to climb. Ditto for your FPJ CB.

Thank you!
Yeah the cb bleu is also doing so well


Instagram: serialflipper

126710 CHNR
116519 Daytona wg
5960/1a
5712/1a
5296g
Octa calendrier
15202st
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Mikelikslurpee]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Nice shot. It’s easily the most photogenic watch I’ve ever owned.

Yeah for some reason easier to take pictures with this than the 5711


Instagram: serialflipper

126710 CHNR
116519 Daytona wg
5960/1a
5712/1a
5296g
Octa calendrier
15202st
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Mikelikslurpee]

Originally Posted by T3F

My prediction is that there's still a bit more to go before the ceiling is hit, and then they'll eventually end up back to where they were a year or two ago -- around retail.

They'll continue to climb as long as the 5711 prices hold up. I think people not being able to get a 5711 -- and not wanting to pay an absolutely ridiculous $50k for one on the secondary market -- has driven a lot of people towards the 15202. I personally believe, after spending some time with both the 5711 and 15202, that the 15202 is the better-executed, more versatile watch. Of the owners of both watches that I've seen address which they liked better, the majority have a preference for the 15202. As such, I'm predicting that the gap in secondary market price between the two will close, ending up with the 5711 being in the $37-43k range and the 15202 being in the $31-37k range.

And then the economy will dip, and everything will be back to where it was a few years ago.

For sure I agree with you the 15202st has the better bracelet and just feels better on the wrist. For sure with the 5711 unavailable and with 202 still far from the naut in price, collectors have gravitated towards the 202


Instagram: serialflipper

126710 CHNR
116519 Daytona wg
5960/1a
5712/1a
5296g
Octa calendrier
15202st
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Vipes]

Great shot! Man, I miss having a Jumbo.

[Tsfc]

Killer photo, these things really are drool worthy

[DGB]

I couldn’t even put my name on a waiting list for a 5711, so went to AP and got a 15202 in less than 5 months.
The RO Jumbo is more available than the PP Nautilus, therefore the price won’t reach the peaks of the Patek.

Definitely AP is having the same strategy of Patek and Rolex. Nothing more efficient than artificial shortage ...




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[R!$]

What goes up, must come down

[Recon]

Originally Posted by DGB

I couldn’t even put my name on a waiting list for a 5711, so went to AP and got a 15202 in less than 5 months.
The RO Jumbo is more available than the PP Nautilus, therefore the price won’t reach the peaks of the Patek.

Definitely AP is having the same strategy of Patek and Rolex. Nothing more efficient than artificial shortage ...




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Mind me asking where you were able to get the 15202 from?? NYC boutique isn't even accepting names on the wait list for the 15202.

[DGB]

Originally Posted by Recon

Mind me asking where you were able to get the 15202 from?? NYC boutique isn't even accepting names on the wait list for the 15202.

It was the AP Boutique in Paris. They also put my name on the waiting list for the Ceramic RO. They did say the waiting is longer for this one. That’s my Grail watch, if I get this one, I stop adding watches to my collection....


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[ragsk]

I don't get whats so special about the jumbo. It lacks a second hand, the movement is a bit quirky and it feels small on the wrist. To me it really has limited appeal. the 15400 blue on the other hand ticks all the boxes.

Is it because its thin?

Please excuse my ignorance - not trying to be provocative.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by ragsk

I don't get whats so special about the jumbo. It lacks a second hand, the movement is a bit quirky and it feels small on the wrist. To me it really has limited appeal. the 15400 blue on the other hand ticks all the boxes.

Is it because its thin?

Please excuse my ignorance - not trying to be provocative.

Probably the heritage

[benlee]

Originally Posted by ragsk

I don't get whats so special about the jumbo. It lacks a second hand, the movement is a bit quirky and it feels small on the wrist. To me it really has limited appeal. the 15400 blue on the other hand ticks all the boxes.

Is it because its thin?

Please excuse my ignorance - not trying to be provocative.

Have you tried one on?

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by Mikelikslurpee

The past year has been a crazy market with the 15202st following in the 5711’s footsteps.
These days new 15202sts price around 30k with grey with ad’s having them scarce ala 5711 levels.
Do you guys think this trend continues?

If US retail + sales tax is $26,700-ish that premium is no where near 5711 levels. I think there is room to run, but if it hasn't done it by now i doubt its going to close the gap.

They arguably make less 15202 than 5711 so there just isnt the demand based on secondary pricing. I know its a pain to source from a boutique, but people dont seem to be willing to pay 50k+ for one either. It actually should be easier to get than it is, based on the market so i tend to not believe the multi year waitlist is real. I think they make you wait for sure though. IMO that premium is probably more sustainable though.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

If US retail + sales tax is $26,700-ish that premium is no where near 5711 levels. I think there is room to run, but if it hasn't done it by now i doubt its going to close the gap.

They arguably make less 15202 than 5711 so there just isnt the demand based on secondary pricing. I know its a pain to source from a boutique, but people dont seem to be willing to pay 50k+ for one either. It actually should be easier to get than it is, based on the market. IMO that premium is probably more sustainable though.

Given the price point is close between the 15202st vs the 5711 now with the recent price increase... kinda wonder if most people will just try to put their name and wait for the 5711 dwspite the waittime... then again. Time is money i guess. This is not a statment. More just thinking out loud.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Given the price point is close between the 15202st vs the 5711 now with the recent price increase... kinda wonder if most people will just try to put their name and wait for the 5711 dwspite the waittime... then again. Time is money i guess. This is not a statment. More just thinking out loud.

The ultimate wildcard remains will someone go to a boutique that is nowhere near local to get a 15202 (which i happen to prefer actually) or continue to build a local AD relationship to get a 5711? I chose the 5711 route.

Its not the same thing as traveling across the country to source a super limited high complication piece that costs 6 figures. That i can see. IMO demand is suppressed because of where you can get on a list in the first place. The modest premiums just seems like a tax for someone sourcing one from a boutique and selling it on to someone who wants one and lives in Seattle for instance and doesnt want to bother with contacting non local boutiques. The secondary margins are not huge given the comparably modest premium.

Both have very real barriers to entry. The AP is more logistical and location based and the Patek is more demand based.

Its also IMO going to encourage mono brand collectors (which isnt necessarily bad) but the 5711 vs 15202 is going to be less relevant, at least sourced through official channels. Being able to get one isnt going to help you get the other and people (myself included) dont want to be at the front of the queue one place and at the back of the queue at another, so our collections are shaped by that to some extent and you pick one or the other and mix brands less. So there is only one option, not two as very few people can walk into an AD and get a 5711 and also walk into a boutique and walk out with a 15202.

[Andrew NYC]

Originally Posted by ragsk

I don't get whats so special about the jumbo. It lacks a second hand, the movement is a bit quirky and it feels small on the wrist. To me it really has limited appeal. the 15400 blue on the other hand ticks all the boxes.

Is it because its thin?

Please excuse my ignorance - not trying to be provocative.

Personally I think the Jumbo is "the" AP RO to own. First it's the original from a design standpoint and it is the closest to the 5402. The watch wears incredibly well, it's super thin on the wrist and the integration between the case and bracelet is nothing short of impressive. The case however wears larger than 39mm due to the integrated bracelet and case design. The “Petite Tapisserie” dial is finer than the other ROs in the line. The lack of the second hand adds to its purity and allows the cleaness of the dial to stand out without distraction.

The smaller power reserve and lack of quick set date are by far it's biggest shortcomings but for me not nearly enough of a reason to choose the 15400. Speaking of the 15400, in comparison I find it too bloated in size, thickness and design. The movement from the “Petite Tapisserie” to the "Grande Tapisserie" dial makes for a noticeable difference and brings it closer to the ROO. When AP evolved the 15300 to the 15400 they didn't change the inhouse movement design. As a result the date window moved inwards on the now larger dial of the 15400 and a half size hour marker was added at 3 o'clock to compensate for the new proportions. To me the dial layout proportions are now way off and a stark departure from Genta's original design. Some may claim that the 15400 is more "robust" than the 15202 but I challenge that claim. The Jumbo while sleek is solid and secure and is by no means "fragile".

In the end it comes down to personal preference and what's important to you the buyer/owner but my vote goes to the 15202 7 days a week.

-andrew

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by ragsk

I don't get whats so special about the jumbo. It lacks a second hand, the movement is a bit quirky and it feels small on the wrist. To me it really has limited appeal. the 15400 blue on the other hand ticks all the boxes.

Is it because its thin?

Please excuse my ignorance - not trying to be provocative.

proportions and i really like the petite tapisserie dial. I have a 15400 though, so its no slouch.

[AK797]

5711 was more widely available before this recent hype, I had never seen a 15202 in an AD before while the Nautilus even took a price cut, but when demand came looking for watch trinkets they went big time for the 5711 not the 202. I think the 202 will continue to move up in price, but won't nearly match the 5711's rise, largely because it hasn't risen so much before and momentum is everything in a hyped market.

[ragsk]

Originally Posted by benlee

Have you tried one on?

No, but I have seen it physically a few times.

I don't think having it on my wrist will suddenly transform my opinion.

[ragsk]

Originally Posted by Andrew NYC

Personally I think the Jumbo is "the" AP RO to own. First it's the original from a design standpoint and it is the closest to the 5402. The watch wears incredibly well, it's super thin on the wrist and the integration between the case and bracelet is nothing short of impressive. The case however wears larger than 39mm due to the integrated bracelet and case design. The “Petite Tapisserie” dial is finer than the other ROs in the line. The lack of the second hand adds to its purity and allows the cleaness of the dial to stand out without distraction.

The smaller power reserve and lack of quick set date are by far it's biggest shortcomings but for me not nearly enough of a reason to choose the 15400. Speaking of the 15400, in comparison I find it too bloated in size, thickness and design. The movement from the “Petite Tapisserie” to the "Grande Tapisserie" dial makes for a noticeable difference and brings it closer to the ROO. When AP evolved the 15300 to the 15400 they didn't change the inhouse movement design. As a result the date window moved inwards on the now larger dial of the 15400 and a half size hour marker was added at 3 o'clock to compensate for the new proportions. To me the dial layout proportions are now way off and a stark departure from Genta's original design. Some may claim that the 15400 is more "robust" than the 15202 but I challenge that claim. The Jumbo while sleek is solid and secure and is by no means "fragile".

In the end it comes down to personal preference and what's important to you the buyer/owner but my vote goes to the 15202 7 days a week.

-andrew

A good explanation - thank you for providing more clarity. I wasn't for example aware or noticed the dial difference.

[ragsk]

Originally Posted by AK797

5711 was more widely available before this recent hype, I had never seen a 15202 in an AD before while the Nautilus even took a price cut, but when demand came looking for watch trinkets they went big time for the 5711 not the 202. I think the 202 will continue to move up in price, but won't nearly match the 5711's rise, largely because it hasn't risen so much before and momentum is everything in a hyped market.

The premium for the 15202 in the UK is probably about 20% maybel slightly less?

The Nautilus as you state is in a different league.

[RolexZen]

Originally Posted by ragsk

I don't get whats so special about the jumbo. It lacks a second hand, the movement is a bit quirky and it feels small on the wrist...

Originally Posted by ragsk

No, but I have seen it physically a few times.

I don't think having it on my wrist will suddenly transform my opinion.

Well, hard to argue with that.

Originally Posted by ragsk

A good explanation - thank you for providing more clarity. I wasn't for example aware or noticed the dial difference.

For me, the thinness wasn't a leading factor in choosing the Jumbo. The dial differences were much more significant--the shade of blue, the petite tapisserie, the placement of the AP logo and date window. I prefer all of these differences on the 15202 even without taking in consideration that these elements are more closely aligned with the original Royal Oak design.

And with a 6.75" wrist, the 39mm Extra-Thin fits my wrist a lot better than the 15400.

Originally Posted by ragsk

I don't get whats so special about the jumbo.

"Special" is subjective. To me, the 15202 is special. But the 15400 is still a great watch, and is the right choice for many.

[ragsk]

Sorry I should have been clearer. Obviously as I have stated above, I haven't had it on my wrist.

The 41mm ROs can wear quite large so I understand why you many prefer the smaller size. I hadn't noticed all the other differences. I now understand better the pro views for the 15202.

Will I go for one? No - but thats what preferences are all about.

[DGB]

The 15202 is iconic, a grail watch for many collectors. A unique history combining design, style, luxury and steel watch.
Although in the category of sport watch , due to its thickness (below 9mm) it can be worn with a smoking suit or a T-shirt and jeans equally.
The dial with the petite tapisserie reflects light like no other AP, depending on the light and the angle the dial goes from deep blue to grey and all the shades in between.
It is very comfortable on the wrist and the 39 mm wears much bigger than other brands.

The lack of second hand give a much nicer balance to the watch and is a perfect remedy for accuracy geeks like me as I don’t have to check every time how many seconds it deviated from the atomic watch.

I did compare both 15202 & 15400 and my choice went directly to the Jumbo. No hesitation.


And the choice was



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[Bearxj86]

I own 4 Pateks and am a frequent poster on the Patek forums here so you will tell my bias immediately. I have tried them all on (including the 15202) and owned a 15300 and 15400 black and blue - the nautilus wins it for me (regardless of price). In general the royal oak finishing and design is aggressive and attracts attention. The Patek is more subdued and "refined". This is a preference thing.

1) Wearability - while one will argue that the 5711 is prone to scratches on the bezel...I've never seen a brush finish so easily prone to scratches as the royal oaks. I wear my watches with considerable wrist awareness and after a year, the royal oak shows much more in terms of scratches. I would argue its like the PCLs on the Rolex GMT and Daytonas and it WILL scratch, its not a matter of whether but when. The mewling screams of 100000 kittens went off in my head when my first scratch happened on the 15400 blue and then later on the 15300. It was perhaps like 10 kittens when I scratched my nautilus since it is not as noticeable.

2) The 15202 is really more of a dress watch than a sports watch. For me, the Nautilus at 120m water resistance, amagnetic silicone hairspring, and the 324 movement is more hardy. Said another way, you wouldn't wear both to play rugby but the 5711 will take the impacts and water better.

3) The royal oak crowns are also notoriously fragile and so many stories of it popping out. No real complaints on the Pateks. It would seriously horrify me to have the crown and stem pop out (even on a $10k watch, much less a $30k or $50k watch). The crown really feels fragile. https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=610977

4) Movement finishing - JLC does a nice job but most people viewing both would give the edge to Patek. I do like that the rotor is skeletonized though.

5) Seconds hand - If AP were to offer a 15202 with a seconds hand, who would buy it? I certainty would. Again a reason why the 15202 is a dress watch first and sports watch second.

If you acknowledge that the 15202 is a dress/sports watch, then you need to compare against the 5711-R. The 15202OR versus 5711R battle is also out there. In this case, the 15202OR retails for more and sells for much less. In that case perhaps you have something a bit closer. My 2 cents and a contrarian's opinion here.