The market has peaked

[TheHulk]

Originally Posted by vh2k

You just woke up from a six-week nap?

My thoughts exactly....

[PeepingTime]

The reality is that Rolex has never been worth more than retail

[1665fan]

Originally Posted by PeepingTime

The reality is that Rolex has never been worth more than retail

Lol that’s funny…..why did a 350$ Daytona sell for 20 million??????

[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by rolex16

The reason true watch lovers care is because they cannot buy a mass produced product they like at MSRP because of greedy people taking advantage. It is infuriating to have to wait years for something at MSRP that used to be readily available while seeing the same watches marked up hundreds of percent and well stocked at greys, etc. I have wanted a BLNR for over a year and have been waiting. I could buy at more than 2x MSRP and have it tomorrow, but I would feel like I was fleeced and refuse. So for me, it's not about value/$/etc., but about availability to buy what I like without being gouged. It is the same game with sneakers, etc. I find it to be a major turnoff, and I refuse to participate. I also find it a turn off that so many on this forum defend this as capitalism, simple supply and demand, call people who complain about this entitled, etc. It is greed, plain and simple, that is causing artificial/manufactured shortages in supply, while the pump and dump youtubers/posters create FOMO demand. If you truly love watches, it is no longer fun.

I am waiting on two watches from my AD, one of which is my exit watch. I check in here to see if there seems to be any progress in inventory, etc. but will likely stop visiting watch forums and move on once I get these two pieces. I feel the joy has been totally sucked out of the hobby.

I absolutely agree with the points you make.
I used to love the days when the windows were full of Rolex watches.

Now you walk into an AD and it’s literally empty, employees almost laughing at walk in customers (if they even allow them in the door!)

However I don’t think massive changes will come. At best, some datejusts will appear in windows. I don’t ever see days where steel subs and GMT’s will reach windows, or be readily available at MRSP.

Rolex have worked hard on their exclusivity and they’ll not went to spoil that. However as a Rolex fan and watch lover, the current situation is extremely frustrating, with Rolex being treated more as currency.

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by rolex16

The reason true watch lovers care is because they cannot buy a mass produced product they like at MSRP because of greedy people taking advantage.

I understand the sentiment but I think this veers too close to another type of greed. People are fee to do what they want and if this impacts on my hobby, obsession, interest, or whatever you want to call it, then I adapt if I need to. Or I just do something else.

People who have something that I want haven't stolen it from me, no matter how much over MSRP they paid for it or how much money they gouged out of it.

[BillA]

Originally Posted by rolex16

I think I am entitled to buy a mass-produced product at MSRP in a reasonable timeframe without being price gouged. Clearly, you think it is OK to hoover up all supply and overcharge people while "influencing" with posts and videos.

Go ahead and keep posting that meme and belittling and gaslighting people.

this

[BillA]

So are greys still buying watches or are they sitting on the sidelines?

Someone posted that grey are using “consignment”, can anyone confirm this?

thanks.

[teck21]

Originally Posted by BillA

this

Why?

Why not $100m mansions as well?

I love them much more than many people living in them, and even more than the rest who are just speculating in them?

Perhaps vintage art too.

Imagine locking those up instead of hanging them up in the living room to admire them.


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[RXB]

Some greys have started moving to POA pricing on Instagram. I think this ponzi scheme might be finally over!

[BillA]

Originally Posted by teck21

Why?

Why not $100m mansions as well?

I love them much more than many people living in them, and even more than the rest who are just speculating in them?

Perhaps vintage art too.

Imagine locking those up instead of hanging them up in the living room to admire them.


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Huh? Can you please explain, I don’t get your point. I am sorry, I was born this way.

[47Fountain]

Originally Posted by ~JJ

I’m not a fan of value threads; however, I’m not sure why everyone is beating on the guys that bring up a little concern. It’s a process and you don’t go from triple retail to retail overnight. I’ve spoken with 3 grays and the guys at Chi VC (who sell used in the back), within the past 2-weeks, and prices are coming down faster than the usual spring slow down. One gray said he bought more Rolex in the last 30-days than the past 2 years, since there are deals to be made. Two others said they are not making offers on any Rolex. Who knows where the market will go, but to ignore what’s happening on the street, unless paying retail, is a little naive. Look at all collectible markets and you will see the same.

Best "on point" & concise post in this entire thread. Thank you.

[rmwill]

Heading to the dealer this morning! I have rights!!!!

Originally Posted by Kevin of Larchmont

You mean I have a right to that Porsche? I’ll tell the dealer Nick said so!

[GoBig]

Originally Posted by 47Fountain

Best "on point" & concise post in this entire thread. Thank you.

I agree as well! The home cash out refi machine is now closed because of higher interest rates. This is and will continue impacting the purchase of luxury goods.

[scurfa]

Originally Posted by rmwill

Heading to the dealer this morning! I have rights!!!!

You’ll find your name on another list!


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[brandrea]

Originally Posted by teck21

That is true.

Exclusivity comes from the fact that people can’t simply walk into an AD to get one, even if they can ‘afford’ it.

There’s no exclusivity buying from the secondary market, because all it takes is … money.

And a fixed sum at that. That excludes only the people who don’t have that particular sum of money.


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Yep, well said

[zagazar]

Originally Posted by BillA

So are greys still buying watches or are they sitting on the sidelines?

Someone posted that grey are using “consignment”, can anyone confirm this?

thanks.

watch latest episode of CRM Jewelry and you can see, that Grey's are not buying Rolex anymore. People trying to offload their Rolex are turned back.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by zagazar

watch latest episode of CRM Jewelry and you can see, that Grey's are not buying Rolex anymore. People trying to offload their Rolex are turned back.

And in that same episode, you see people calling who have not even received the watch from the AD yet and already looking to flip it. Maybe some of those will pass when they get the call...

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by brandrea

Yep, well said

Are you and teck21 suggesting that a pre-2016 purchase was not an exclusive item? A YG DD36 was not exclusive in 2014 for example?

And also suggesting those not buying at market prices can't afford?

I hope I misunderstood...

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by rmwill

Heading to the dealer this morning! I have rights!!!!

You forgot to post your go-to witty meme that takes up half a page...

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by rolex16

Are you and teck21 suggesting that a pre-2016 purchase was not an exclusive item? A YG DD36 was not exclusive in 2014 for example?

And also suggesting those not buying at market prices can't afford?

I hope I misunderstood...

The way I read his post is that the makings of something exclusive has nothing to do with money. It’s about availability and perceived rarity

[rmwill]

Ok Veruca!

I have RIGHTS!!!!

Originally Posted by rolex16

You forgot to post your go-to witty meme that takes up half a page...

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by brandrea

The way I read his post is that the makings of something exclusive has nothing to do with money. It’s about availability and perceived rarity

OK. I disagree somewhat, I think as you go higher in cost, things become naturally exclusive and you don't have to create this artificial aura. A platinum DD was always exclusive because it was expensive. I don't think it needed to become unavailable to be exclusive. That's my opinion anyway.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by teck21

Why?

Why not $100m mansions as well?

I love them much more than many people living in them, and even more than the rest who are just speculating in them?

Perhaps vintage art too.

Imagine locking those up instead of hanging them up in the living room to admire them.


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Actually, not $100M mansions per se, but in FL there are corporations and investor groups buying up residential properties in chunks (entire neighborhoods) and driving up prices so locals can no longer afford real estate. That is plain wrong too, and will ultimately upset the local economies. Same concept.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by rolex16

OK. I disagree somewhat, I think as you go higher in cost, things become naturally exclusive and you don't have to create this artificial aura. A platinum DD was always exclusive because it was expensive. I don't think it needed to become unavailable to be exclusive. That's my opinion anyway.

There’s certainly an element to price, but IMO that only rules out a certain number of folks.

Ferrari is probably the best example.

Anyone who has that kind of money and can afford to buy one can’t just go out and close a deal. Ferrari makes it more exclusive by waitlisting for years, taking into account previous ownership etc, etc … this all plays into making the brand exclusive. They don’t just sell to folks who can drop that kind of money.

[S``]

Originally Posted by rolex16

And in that same episode, you see people calling who have not even received the watch from the AD yet and already looking to flip it. Maybe some of those will pass when they get the call...

Originally Posted by zagazar

watch latest episode of CRM Jewelry and you can see, that Grey's are not buying Rolex anymore. People trying to offload their Rolex are turned back.

why don't you guys tell the full story from the video about what CRM was buying based on that 45 mins montage? Right, because that would cloud the judgement that per you guys nothing was moving...

Let me start with how 1 month ago, CRM was purchasing mostly Pateks (including Nautilus) during the IWJG Miami show... They also traded a RM for a complications AP RO in PM. I didn't really keep track of all the purchases but I believe a couple of 5980/1r was bought at around the 300k mark... That must have taken a good chunk out of the capital... The title says they spent $2m purchasing watches from that show... I didn't verify... I don't want to spend my time watching show on dealers lol

Ok... Now we move on to the current video... Started off with someone calling in to FLIP their offered SD43 red direct from the AD. Was rejected

Next offer was a PM Daydate, walk in guy was looking for 49k, rejected (not sure the exact config)

Then, one of the CRM ladies brought in a TT Sub Bluesy for inspection and listings of defect (it looks like they bought this model)... Within minutes, it looks like someone walked in into the office to offer a Rolex (not sure what model) and was rejected. He mentioned that 15 people had walked in up to that point to sell Rolexes (assumed all modern 6 digits)...

What followed next is a call to a client who wants to trade in a 5712G - priced at 80k(in the dealer's chat it was mentioned a few was at 86,84 and 82) for a 5980/1a, no papers at 165k... Client asked about extract and CRM confirmed it's over 10 years old and requesting one would not be a problem... A complete set would cost him 180-195k.

Next, we see a FPJ CB that was brought in by a client. It looks like they bought it (price wasn't mentioned).

Then discussion about today's market and the doomsday Nostradamus found on forum... Not going to get into details as it doesn't involve sales numbers or figures. It includes a prelude where the CRM guys admitted that they are derisking and strengthening their cash flow position by selectively selling off some pieces that they have an invested interest in

Next, someone from Toronto Canada wants to sell them their AP Millenary... Straight rejection.

Finally, we get to what I quoted above, the 116508 or the JM Green Daytona. The seller is picking it up from his AD next week (not sure how delayed is the call)... And is asking for a quote for an unworn watch.... CRM quoted the range of 95k-100k... CRM told the client to call him back when he has the watch... Then he went on to whine about how many calls he had received where seller does not have the watch in hand yet (30/day or something was quoted) and he had to do some legwork to quote a price, but couldn't close on the transaction... From this, yes he is interested in the JM Daytona...

Finally, a client called in looking for a TT DJ, a chocolate dial or possibly a Wimbledon? Not going to get much into detail but he was quoted 17-17.5k.

Obviously I left out a lot of details 1.) Swiss couple who visited them and tried on a 5167r, not sure if any transaction was completed. 2.) A collector who came in to talk about watches and purchase (????) I skipped this part via transcript because I wasn't really interested. 3.)Free food from a previous client 4.) Another call to a client to complete a transaction (price/model wasn't revealed, so wasn't really interested)

If there's any learning out of this short montage is that market is slowing down, however, dealers are still buying pieces that they view as a "great deal" and a "can't lose"... In another previous video they call these examples like the RO, Nautilus, Aquanaut, etc...

For you guys to claim that they are NOT buying at all is clearly pushing an agenda...

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by brandrea

There’s certainly an element to price, but IMO that only rules out a certain number of folks.

Ferrari is probably the best example.

Anyone who has that kind of money and can afford to buy one can’t just go out and close a deal. Ferrari makes it more exclusive by waitlisting for years, taking into account previous ownership etc, etc … this all plays into making the brand exclusive. They don’t just sell to folks who can drop that kind of money.

I get it, but Ferrari is a relatively low volume manufacturer in its market, while Rolex is a high volume manufacturer in its market. Ferrari's availability exclusivity seems natural because of this, while Rolex's seems contrived.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by S``

If there's any learning out of this short montage is that market is slowing down, however, dealers are still buying pieces that they view as a "great deal" and a "can't lose"... In another previous video they call these examples like the RO, Nautilus, Aquanaut, etc...

So not Rolex.

[4rnold]

Originally Posted by rolex16

I think I am entitled to buy a mass-produced product at MSRP in a reasonable timeframe without being price gouged. Clearly, you think it is OK to hoover up all supply and overcharge people while "influencing" with posts and videos.

Go ahead and keep posting that meme and belittling and gaslighting people.

I think 'entitled' is not the good word at all. But I get your point.

I see that people are making fun of your post but I quite understand you.

I think that the feeling is more that its normal to think that you are able to buy a mass produced product that is being presented as for sale.

I think it's kinda weird that you walk into a Rolex AD and you say:
Okay I want to buy this watch (read: mass produced object) that you are advertising for. And the salesperson says that you can't buy it. (okay, in a way, they phrase it otherwise, I know).

But then why is there a boutique??? why advertising? Why say that its for sale??

[S``]

Originally Posted by rolex16

So not Rolex.

Unless you think the 116508 is a Patek? Isn't it a Rolex as well?

[amh]

I could be wrong, but based on various TRF posts I break down Rolex shopper like this:

1) The very wealthy. They probably don't wear Rolex and certainly don't care what's going on in the Rolex market.
2) Whales. They're in this just for fun. The buying/flipping is entertaining but they'll likely quit when it becomes boring or difficult. Normal market conditions are boring, the current speculative period is exciting!
3) Greys. They overlap with Whales except this is their business. They buy from ADs and individual Flippers. They're in for the long haul and can make money under all market conditions.
4) Flippers. People who can afford to play and are granted supply by the AD but quit when the tide turns. They're merely opportunistic.
5) Collectors and Enthusiasts. They buy intentionally and flipping is just part of the process, a means to an end. They're not in this to make money.
6) The Unwashed Masses. Regular people who in normal times would buy a Rolex at retail. Watches are kept for a long time or they are purchased as gifts. Flipping seldom occurs.

On TRF I'd say we are mostly from group [5] - otherwise why even bother registering on a forum and discussing this stuff? The Greys are not the problem, it's groups [2] and [4]. When prices begin to tumble the Whales will stop because flipping becomes an inconvenience and the Flippers will stop because now they might now make money.

This is when the music stops:
R = Retail cost of piece
T = Tax (eg. 8%)
C = Transaction cost imposed by Grey (eg. 20%)
P = Profit remaining to Flipper

Imagine a long rectangle, this is how the pieces fit:
[ R ][T][ P ][ C ]

Retail cost and Tax are fixed. Transaction cost from Grey depends on market price but is likely a percentage under any conditions. When the profit seen by the Flipper approaches zero we will see stock return. Today one must sell the Flipped piece for about 30% profit just to break even because Greys aren't handing out free money. (Try it for yourself when selling a watch.)