the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[42itus]

Originally Posted by BumbleB

Really? https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...break-11952487


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Silly me for believing one little blurb I saw on TV about how s was being handled well. Thanks for sharing.


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[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by Bryant Park

Seth not trying to be alarmist or dispassionate but think of the practical impact using your numbers. The U.K. Government has directed business to assume an infection rate of 20% with a mortality rate slightly north of those you quote. These projections were based on the National Health Services modeling so fairly apolitical.

A couple of clarifications:

Firstly the figure of 20% infection rate is not an expectation of what is most likely to happen. From the government's own action plan document from which that figure came about:https://assets.publishing.service.go...oss_the_UK.pdf

Planning draws on the idea of a "reasonable worst case" scenario. This is not a forecast of what is most likely to happen...

It makes sense that the government is planning for the worst, as they absolutely ought to be doing, however this does once again highlight the alarmist tendencies of the media, who have reported this story (un)clearly enough that it's being misrepresented across the pond.

Secondly, the Government explicitly does not expect the mortality rate of COVID-19 to exceed 1%. Prof Chris Whitty is the Chief Medical Adviser to the UK Government and he has said:

I am reasonably confident 1% is the upper rate of mortality. When the director general of the World Health Organization spoke of 3.4%, he was dividing the number of reported deaths by the number of reported cases. That isn’t the mortality rate.

Citation - https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ily-uk-updates

[MikeMike]

I know most media seemingly don’t want to report it, but there has been 80,928 cases in China. Of that, 60,178 people have recovered. There are 17,601 cases remaining; about 17,000 in Hubei. Two weeks ago there were about 50,000 people with the virus. The number of people with the virus is dropping by about 1500 per day.

Also, outside of Hubei, the mortality rate in China is less than 1%.

[andyxxx]

I'm not sure I believe anything China says but:

We will never ever know the true infection to death rate ratio. It will always be a guess.

There will be many thousands (I would imagine many millions) who have it now and also that have already recovered from it that will never be included in these statistics.

I know it is a world problem (and needless to say, my thoughts to people affected or infected) but I think this is and has been blown out of all proportion.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Well, the Chinese sealed off Hubei Province with methods that would never happen in the west (we hope at least). So I would think that’s probably why.

They essentially locked down 60,000,000 people to save over 1B. That’s some hard nosed $#*7, but it seems to be working.

Without a vaccine or natural immunity governments are going to institute quarantines of varying levels to stop the spread until summer hits and hopefully it gets toned down by heat, humidity and UV exposure.

So get ready to plop for awhile. Afterwards lots of businesses will change how they operate, so get ready to adapt to that too.

Do you think they’re going to get rid of tradeshows after all this is said and done? My industry is still doing tradeshows. They haven’t canceled even one of them yet. Now that doesn’t mean they won’t and they probably will but this very week three of my partners are attending shows that have more than 1000 people attending. Of course those are small but we did go to the biggest one in early February that had over 70,000 people from all over the world.

I wanted to address this lockdown/Quarantine. I still can’t understand how this will accomplish anything other then delaying the inevitable. Those providence is not under lockdown anymore. At least not completely anyway according to a few of my sources there. Are you saying they did it out of the gate to prevent it from spreading quickly at first? I apologize because I truly don’t understand.

Originally Posted by BumbleB

I have no idea about the USa as I don’t know what their containment strategy is. I live in Asia but travel frequently between EU, USA and Asia. My colleagues in the US didn’t take it serious at all and asked me to travel to Korea when it was accelerating there, until about one or two weeks ago as it was too far for them to understand the seriousness of the situation. When it broke in Italy they started to take notice and it all went downhill from there.

So far no country has let it ‘run free’ to see what happens and how fast it spirals out of control. I hope it stays that way and hope governments around the world are able to contain the spread.

As the virus progresses to less prepared countries we’ll probably unfortunately see what happens if not properly contained.

I believe it should also be a push to the scientific community to focus on research for vaccines for novel corona virus such as this one and not stop/slow down research for a solution when the threat subsides.


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Thank you for responding but you didn’t answer my questions (nobody has really) as to your belief about the devastation this virus will cause in the end.

About countries being prepared I’m sure most were ready for something like this because we’ve known this could happen for a long time. We have to adjust this particular virus but all countries are working on that as well as helping each other. Most criticism I’ve seen in my own country is either purely emotional or 99% political anyway and I’ve learned to not take the media seriously on any of that. Let me put it this way if NBC said the sun would rise this morning I’d be pretty scared that wasn’t gonna happen.

I guess I just wonder if the world is significantly over reacting to this. The damage economically this is causing is undeniable. In the end if the British statistics above that was cited are correct it doesn’t really matter. But if this virus causes flulike situations and we do end up calming down from all this in a couple months the economic damage caused by it will be long lasting and hurt many millions of more people than this virus ever thought of hurting. I don’t mean to sound harsh but most of us here buy luxury watches and some could probably live out the rest of our lives comfortably without another dime of income coming in so perhaps we don’t give much concern to this. Perhaps some of you do. But massive recessions and depressions completely destroy the lower middle class and the poor. If you quarantine a group of people that live paycheck to paycheck we are going to see a huge impact. I’ve use this example before but it works in the same way however it’s isolated. When the media scares the living crap out of the entire Southeast US over a hurricane they practically bring new business sales to a halt. At the end of the day that hurricane is only going to hit a small area if it does make landfall but the media whips the entire region into a frenzy and that stops people from spending money. I guess I just wish facts and science would drive peoples decisions and not the 24 hour news cycle. Every doom and gloom scenario I have heard so far came from media and not from government or scientific sources. Yet here we are shutting down every economic activity on the globe for the foreseeable future.

If world government and media are so determined to grind the economy to a halt they better come up with some plan to put a moratorium on bill paying for certain income levels otherwise we are going to see massive car repossessions, evictions and malnourished citizens. I wonder if those people would stand for that and what their reactions might be.

[MikeMike]

It is easy to say not to believe the Chinese government etc, but if there were tens of thousands (or more) dying the news would easily get out. Just remember at the start of the crisis, anything negative happening in Wuhan (crowded hospitals etc) was all over the Western media.

Also, if the Chinese government was lying about the number of infections and deaths, all that would do is greatly piss off its citizens who are being told that things are a lot better and can easily access the official figures. People in Hubei are expecting the lockdown to end soon because of the official figures. If things are actually so much worse and the lockdown continues for the foreseeable future that will lead to major social unrest. Thus in this instance I am inclined to believe the official figures are largely correct.

[Bryant Park]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

A couple of clarifications:

Firstly the figure of 20% infection rate is not an expectation of what is most likely to happen. From the government's own action plan document from which that figure came about:https://assets.publishing.service.go...oss_the_UK.pdf



It makes sense that the government is planning for the worst, as they absolutely ought to be doing, however this does once again highlight the alarmist tendencies of the media, who have reported this story (un)clearly enough that it's being misrepresented across the pond.

Secondly, the Government explicitly does not expect the mortality rate of COVID-19 to exceed 1%. Prof Chris Whitty is the Chief Medical Adviser to the UK Government and he has said:

(Citation - https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ily-uk-updates)

I don't think we are disagreeing. I was responding to Seth's question as to why people or markets are responding to such an extreme. I was trying to offer context to the numbers deliberately avoiding the suggestion that it was a likely outcome. The "reasonable" or plausible scenario however that mortality rates rise by 20+% and the knock on shock to the healthcare system is what is behind the market and societal response. No suggestion by me (I am not qualified) as to the likelihood of this outcome.

However, as you point out the U.K. Preparedness plan is a "Reasonable worst case scenario". The PRA and other regulatory bodies have told the institutions they govern to implement plans assuming a scenario as I described. I don't think peoples reaction is an expectation of the reasonable worst case scenario being fulfilled but the realization that it is reasonable in the eyes of those most informed.

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by Bryant Park

I don't think we are disagreeing. I was responding to Seth's question as to why people or markets are responding to such an extreme. I was trying to offer context to the numbers deliberately avoiding the suggestion that it was a likely outcome. The "reasonable" or plausible scenario however that mortality rates rise by 20+% and the knock on shock to the healthcare system is what is behind the market and societal response. No suggestion by me (I am not qualified) as to the likelihood of this outcome.

However, as you point out the U.K. Preparedness plan is a "Reasonable worst case scenario". The PRA and other regulatory bodies have told the institutions they govern to implement plans assuming a scenario as I described.

I agree we're not disagreeing

[Bryant Park]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

I agree we're not disagreeing

Oddly I agree that we agree, but feel like we have broken an unwritten TRF rule as a result

[BumbleB]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Do you think they’re going to get rid of tradeshows after all this is said and done? My industry is still doing tradeshows. They haven’t canceled even one of them yet. Now that doesn’t mean they won’t and they probably will but this very week three of my partners are attending shows that have more than 1000 people attending. Of course those are small but we did go to the biggest one in early February that had over 70,000 people from all over the world.



I wanted to address this lockdown/Quarantine. I still can’t understand how this will accomplish anything other then delaying the inevitable. Those providence is not under lockdown anymore. At least not completely anyway according to a few of my sources there. Are you saying they did it out of the gate to prevent it from spreading quickly at first? I apologize because I truly don’t understand.







Thank you for responding but you didn’t answer my questions (nobody has really) as to your belief about the devastation this virus will cause in the end.



About countries being prepared I’m sure most were ready for something like this because we’ve known this could happen for a long time. We have to adjust this particular virus but all countries are working on that as well as helping each other. Most criticism I’ve seen in my own country is either purely emotional or 99% political anyway and I’ve learned to not take the media seriously on any of that. Let me put it this way if NBC said the sun would rise this morning I’d be pretty scared that wasn’t gonna happen.



I guess I just wonder if the world is significantly over reacting to this. The damage economically this is causing is undeniable. In the end if the British statistics above that was cited are correct it doesn’t really matter. But if this virus causes flulike situations and we do end up calming down from all this in a couple months the economic damage caused by it will be long lasting and hurt many millions of more people than this virus ever thought of hurting. I don’t mean to sound harsh but most of us here buy luxury watches and some could probably live out the rest of our lives comfortably without another dime of income coming in so perhaps we don’t give much concern to this. Perhaps some of you do. But massive recessions and depressions completely destroy the lower middle class and the poor. If you quarantine a group of people that live paycheck to paycheck we are going to see a huge impact. I’ve use this example before but it works in the same way however it’s isolated. When the media scares the living crap out of the entire Southeast US over a hurricane they practically bring new business sales to a halt. At the end of the day that hurricane is only going to hit a small area if it does make landfall but the media whips the entire region into a frenzy and that stops people from spending money. I guess I just wish facts and science would drive peoples decisions and not the 24 hour news cycle. Every doom and gloom scenario I have heard so far came from media and not from government or scientific sources. Yet here we are shutting down every economic activity on the globe for the foreseeable future.



If world government and media are so determined to grind the economy to a halt they better come up with some plan to put a moratorium on bill paying for certain income levels otherwise we are going to see massive car repossessions, evictions and malnourished citizens. I wonder if those people would stand for that and what their reactions might be.

Not sure why you’re so hung up on the media. Everything in Asia is driven by information from the governments and WHO. The media just report what they hear from those sources.

People are not stupid, they should be perfectly capable of weighing news from different sources and make up their own minds what makes sense or not.

I think you’re overestimating the influence of media. It’s an insult to the intelligence of people, to think they just blindly follow media messages.

Anyway, i joined TRF for my Rolex hobby and will go back to doing that rather than getting involved in dispelling conspiracy theories by people that seem hell-bent on believing the media wants to bring the world down... Adios.


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[Patton250]

Originally Posted by BumbleB

Not sure why you’re so hung up on the media. Everything in Asia is driven by information from the governments and WHO. The media just report what they hear from those sources.

People are not stupid, they should be perfectly capable of weighing news from different sources and make up their own minds what makes sense or not.

I think you’re overestimating the influence of media. It’s an insult to the intelligence of people, to think they just blindly follow media messages.

Anyway, i joined TRF for my Rolex hobby and will go back to doing that rather than getting involved in dispelling conspiracy theories by people that seem hell-bent on believing the media wants to bring the world down... Adios.


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I thought we were having a discussion. I seem to bring the worst out in people sometimes. I regret that.

A person is smart. People are stupid. IMHO. Apparently you’ve never been in a Home Depot in Tampa Florida when there’s a hurricane 1800 miles east in the Atlantic ocean.

My opinions on US media are based off of 40 years of observation. They are wrong about 99% of the time. They rarely if ever report an actual statistics from the government. They mostly just criticize and sensationalize.

[andyxxx]

Originally Posted by BumbleB

Not sure why you’re so hung up on the media. Everything in Asia is driven by information from the governments and WHO. The media just report what they hear from those sources.

People are not stupid, they should be perfectly capable of weighing news from different sources and make up their own minds what makes sense or not.

I think you’re overestimating the influence of media. It’s an insult to the intelligence of people, to think they just blindly follow media messages.

Anyway, i joined TRF for my Rolex hobby and will go back to doing that rather than getting involved in dispelling conspiracy theories by people that seem hell-bent on believing the media wants to bring the world down... Adios.


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Do you really believe people (as in the bulk of the population) are not stupid?

I do not think the bulk of the population are capable of weighing news/disinformation from different sources to make up their minds.

Most people on TRF seem intelligent enough to be able to debate sensibly, but still have very different opinions.

I don’t agree with everything Patton250 says – but have to agree with him that the media have a lot to answer for in the reporting of this virus.

[daveathall]

Originally Posted by Patton250

My opinions on US media are based off of 40 years of observation. They are wrong about 99% of the time. They rarely if ever report an actual statistics from the government. They mostly just criticize and sensationalize.

I dont often agree with Brett, on this occasion though, I have to agree, however, my experience is with the British media, (BBC definitely included) and it seems to mirror the US media as recounted by Brett.

I think we all have very different views on the board, all are valid, some say "what will be will be, dont worry, carry on" others "we're all going to die" and others take the middle road, my view? If you are in good health and 60 or below you are alright, if you are 60 and above, it gets a little more scary, if you are 60 and above and have underlying health issues, it's very scary.

I am in the last category but comfort myself that I cant remember the last time I had Flu, if I ever had. I get vaccinated each year now but, hardly ever hear of anyone who got the Flu. I will take extra precautions, but the fear of this new virus will not make me become a hermit.

[brandrea]

On a related side note: Pearl Jam has cancelled the first leg of their tour due to the virus:

https://www.jambase.com/article/pear...irus-postponed

[Knappo 1307]

Originally Posted by BumbleB

Not sure why you’re so hung up on the media. Everything in Asia is driven by information from the governments and WHO. The media just report what they hear from those sources.

People are not stupid, they should be perfectly capable of weighing news from different sources and make up their own minds what makes sense or not.

I think you’re overestimating the influence of media. It’s an insult to the intelligence of people, to think they just blindly follow media messages.

Anyway, i joined TRF for my Rolex hobby and will go back to doing that rather than getting involved in dispelling conspiracy theories by people that seem hell-bent on believing the media wants to bring the world down... Adios.


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Quite the opposite, most ads on TV are geared exactly towards this demographic. I'm not getting into the "P" word, but every candidate running is preying on stupid and misinformed people, same with medical ads on TV. So yes, many many people are stupid, if they weren't why would they run these ads? Of course this is just my stupid opinion only...

[superdog]

Sorry that I absolutely have to agree with this sentiment.

People as a whole most definitely are stupid. Everyday I’m surprised. Everyday this theory is further reinforced.

People, for the most, part are shockingly stupid.

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by BumbleB

Not sure why you’re so hung up on the media. Everything in Asia is driven by information from the governments and WHO. The media just report what they hear from those sources.

People are not stupid, they should be perfectly capable of weighing news from different sources and make up their own minds what makes sense or not.

I think you’re overestimating the influence of media. It’s an insult to the intelligence of people, to think they just blindly follow media messages.

Anyway, i joined TRF for my Rolex hobby and will go back to doing that rather than getting involved in dispelling conspiracy theories by people that seem hell-bent on believing the media wants to bring the world down... Adios.


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This Exactly. Well said.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by superdog

Sorry that I absolutely have to agree with this sentiment.

People as a whole must definitely are stupid. Everyday I’m surprised. Everyday this theory is further reinforced.

People, for the most, part are shockingly stupid.

Very sad and very, very true

[Moggo]

Has this been posted?

Pretty harrowing.

Coronavirus: 'Stop saying it's a bad flu' - Doctor fighting Italy outbreak shares dramatic account http://news.sky.com/story/coronaviru...e-war-11954229


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[mountainjogger]

Brett, my friend, let me respectfully respond, agree and disagree with you.

Originally Posted by Patton250

I wanted to address this lockdown/Quarantine. I still can’t understand how this will accomplish anything other then delaying the inevitable.

Please clarify. Are you talking about (1) Wuhan style barricaded, (2) voluntary self quarantine for those who are sick or who have been exposed, or (3) travel restrictions imposed by countries such as the US.

As far as Wuhan style, my question question to you is what do you think would have happened in China if China had not locked Wuhan down? Same question on repatriations from Wuhan. Should they have been cleared through customs to take a taxi home? Same questions on the cruise ships, should they disembark and go to their family doctor for follow up without any screening?

As far as voluntary quarantines, my question is what do you think would happen if sick people went to work and carried on like normal. It is not uncommon for people to go to work with a cold or a sore throat. Should people who have CV but feel good enough to go to work just hop on the train and soldier on?

As far as travel restrictions imposed by the US, what do you think would have happened if we had not stopped people entering from Wuhan?

My opinion is that failing to even try to contain spread would lead to massive spread of a virus which we understand little and currently have no vaccine. And this would lead to three things.

First, the raw number (not percentage) of seriously sick people would exponentially increase.

Second, the health care system would be overrun. This would mean those persons who got very ill would not get the care they need not to become a mortality static. And this would drive mortality rates up. It would also mean that healthcare would not be available to those who need it for other reasons such as car accidents.

Third, the resulting panic and economic turmoil would make the current situation look like a walk in the park.

Originally Posted by Patton250

About countries being prepared I’m sure most were ready for something like this because we’ve known this could happen for a long time.

Agree and disagree.

1. Many less developed countries have only rudimentary healthcare. They are not prepared.

2. Here in the US I see several problems.

First, the testing fiasco. But now that private industry is stepping in and states are taking a leading role (per CDC) this looks to be improving.

Second, we do not have enough stocks of protective gear for medical professionals and since we outsourced production to other countries it is hard to remedy this.

Third, we do not have enough stocks for citizens of rudimentary cleaning supplies such as hand sanitizer. Where pray tell you buy a bottle? You can't.

Fourth, early on the protocols for testing were contradictory. Test if you were exposed? Or test if you become symptomatic. My own opinion is that this was based on the lack of kits. But who knows.

Fifth, the government gave a contradictory message: It's a serious health issue vs. it's not even as bad as the common cold. This contrary messaging does not instill confidence. And a lack of confidence leads to fear and panic.

These are not end of the world problems. But they would have been easy to remedy.

QUOTE=Patton250;10443748]
I’ve learned to not take the media seriously on any of that. Let me put it this way if NBC said the sun would rise this morning I’d be pretty scared that wasn’t gonna happen. [/QUOTE]

If you put all media regardless of political persuasion in this category. I agree with you. They exist by and large to turn a profit. No clicks. No profit. But some still try.




QUOTE=Patton250;10443748]
If world government and media are so determined to grind the economy to a halt [/QUOTE]

I agree that nothing sells a click like "DOW tanks." So, the blood in the water syndrome is self fulfilling. But I no not agree that there is a conspiracy to tank the economy by the media. Frankly, I do not think they are smart enough to coordinate ordering pizza, let alone form a functioning conspiracy.

And as far as "world government" I am at a loss to understand who or what body you are taking about. Further, I do not think any world leaders want to see their economy tank.

Personally, I till don't know what to make of this threat. But off to work I go (with my hand sanitizer I purchased in January). Be safe.

[pickettt]

Originally Posted by BumbleB

People are not stupid, they should be perfectly capable of weighing news from different sources and make up their own minds what makes sense or not.

I think you’re overestimating the influence of media. It’s an insult to the intelligence of people, to think they just blindly follow media messages.

The world is full of sheep that think what they’re told to think, and the media is an ill intentioned shepherd.

[GoingPlaces]

Originally Posted by superdog

Sorry that I absolutely have to agree with this sentiment.

People as a whole most definitely are stupid. Everyday I’m surprised. Everyday this theory is further reinforced.

People, for the most, part are shockingly stupid.

Unfortunate but true. People today seem to consume the first bit of news without qualifying or critically processing. This is scary.

[joeychitwood]

Originally Posted by superdog

If anything, maybe just buy into healthcare stocks because they will be busy.

Originally Posted by 037

Keep in mind that being busy might not equate to being profitable.

Haha! We lost money on about 80% of the patients we saw in the ER, but we made up for it with volume.

[uscmatt99]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I wanted to address this lockdown/Quarantine. I still can’t understand how this will accomplish anything other then delaying the inevitable.

Thank you for responding but you didn’t answer my questions (nobody has really) as to your belief about the devastation this virus will cause in the end.

About countries being prepared I’m sure most were ready for something like this because we’ve known this could happen for a long time.

Brett I snipped the salient parts of your post to respond to. Let's leave opinions of the media out of this for now.

At this point professionals agree that the cow is out of the barn. Short of measures that can be taken in authoritarian regimes, there is no feasible way to stop the spread geographically across entire countries that allow citizens freedom of movement.

The rationale for self-quarantine for potentially exposed individuals is as follows in the US:

1. Slow the spread from person to person. Eventually most Americans will be exposed. It is better to have less people at any given time infected, but over a longer period of time. This is because...
2. Our healthcare system is NOT equipped to deal with a significant uptick in sick patients requiring hospitalization, let alone ICU care. If we can spread the cases out over time, we can absorb the patients more gradually, get them through the worst, and make room for the next patient. At some point you run out of ventilators.
3. Decrease the risk posed to providers. Once a provider is unknowingly exposed, or even a whole ER is contaminated, that space must be sterilized and all providers placed on quarantine to avoid spread to all the patients who are there for every other disease besides Covid-19. People will continue to have heart attacks, strokes, complications of cancer, motor vehicle crashes...

Health care resources, in terms of equipment and people, are managed in a way similar to other supply chains. We employ just enough people with just enough stuff, and a little extra for surges, to provide services. When there is enough work for 3.5 doctors to do, we make do with 3.0. It's been that way for a long time. There is no mechanism to increase care capacity dramatically. We are all going to have to work together on this, see through the noise, and protect the most vulnerable as best we can.

[77T]

Some very thoughtful discussion going on - and without any personal rancor.

Each of us might agree that, by and large, we are a unique subset of the world population. Outside of the troll or two who slink into our forum, most here came to TRF for discussion of watches that 98% of the world wouldn’t (or couldn’t) fork over the money to own.

We tend to be reasonable people with measured reactions to life’s normal challenges - AD empty cases, swirlies, chipped crystals, and the odd encounters with pedestrians asking to see our Rolex...

So it is not unexpected that we have fairly high expectations of our governments, public health, commercial and financial institutions. For now we are going to be routinely pushed outside our comfort zones.

But this might be the greatest large-scale challenge we’ve seen. It could be the first time that awareness (or fear) has forced a new generation of leadership and citizenry to thwart a pandemic. I have faith in their core ability to fight this to control it for the next month or two.

We must get over the hump and see our way to a warmer time when the coronavirus might fold up like a cheap lawn chair.

I’m headed to back-to-back race weekends with about 300 drivers, 1000 crew and 100+ workers at each event. No spectators expected, but the social distancing logistics should be interesting...

Be safe and kind to your neighbors - like we did on 9|12 and the early days afterward. As it was then, we are just in the early days of this challenge.


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[gmh1013]

Originally Posted by Knappo 1307

Quite the opposite, most ads on TV are geared exactly towards this demographic. I'm not getting into the "P" word, but every candidate running is preying on stupid and misinformed people, same with medical ads on TV. So yes, many many people are stupid, if they weren't why would they run these ads? Of course this is just my stupid opinion only...

My momma always said....not to sound like Forrest Gump..."The Lord must love stupid people cause he made so many of them"

[JasoninDenver]

Originally Posted by uscmatt99

Health care resources, in terms of equipment and people, are managed in a way similar to other supply chains. We employ just enough people with just enough stuff, and a little extra for surges, to provide services. When there is enough work for 3.5 doctors to do, we make do with 3.0. It's been that way for a long time. There is no mechanism to increase care capacity dramatically. We are all going to have to work together on this, see through the noise, and protect the most vulnerable as best we can.

My wife’s physician group has prohibited all domestic and international travel as well as all large group meetings such as their weekly department conference. Although the virus is not prevalent here yet in Colorado, they are pre-emptively taking measures to preclude a nightmare scenario where one member exposes the others, thereby reducing the number of physicians able to attend to their patients.

Think about this.... one doctor exposed. Who have they had contact with since exposure? What if one doctor exposes all other doctors and nurses?
Do you allow sick doctors and nurses to treat patients if no other doctors are available?

This is a large part of the reasoning for trying to get ahead of this. Any highly contagious disease has this dangerous impact.

[Knappo 1307]

Originally Posted by gmh1013

My momma always said....not to sound like Forrest Gump..."The Lord must love stupid people cause he made so many of them"

[904VT]

Originally Posted by pickettt

The world is full of sheep that think what they’re told to think, and the media is an ill intentioned shepherd.

Originally Posted by GoingPlaces

Unfortunate but true. People today seem to consume the first bit of news without qualifying or critically processing. This is scary.

I have to say I've been shocked when warning those close to prepare in case there was an outbreak with many responses blowing it off saying if it was so bad why isn't it on the news. Seriously.

What's difficult here is the level most want to go to in order to ignore the issue. The actual name of the virus is SARS-Coronavirus-2. It's always been this, but then we had the entire fiasco of COVID-19 being the name of the virus. Then it was the name of the resulting disease. In reality it is a lot less scarier sounding as COVID-19 than SARS-Coronavirus-2 huh?

Lastly the lack of transparency regarding a vaccine. We don't have vaccines for the common cold, MERS, or SARS all from the coronavirus family. The likelihood of getting a vaccine seems slim. With Influenza vaccines a patient is given a vaccine for what is expected to be the most common strain of influenza for that season. If for some reason another strain becomes prevalent then your body will produce the wrong anti-bodies to fight that strain because it is basing on its memory of the vaccinated strain. In some cases this makes those more sick. Now the weighted benefit of the flu shot is to help elderly and those at high-risk and it seems to work well when predictive modeling predicts the correct strain of influenza for the season. The only thing really in common between SARS-COV-2 and Influenza is that they are both RNA viruses.

Lastly,

So what this means is we can't ignore the situation and make it go away, but we also can't non-stop worry since most is out of our control. The thing most don't realize when comparing SARS-COV-2 to Influenza (which is not a smart comparison) is that individually they are both significant in making many sick. But collectively in a combined infection it magnifies sickness potentially. About the only thing in common with Influenza in this respect is that they both spread person to person in the same way.

Now the reason you don't want an outbreak (even if many get mild symptoms) is because it takes capacity away from treatment of other illnesses and emergencies. So those may not be able to get the care they are used to. For those reasons we should all be as responsible as we can. Wash your hands, don't touch your face or body openings when hands are not clean, don't eat without washing your hands first (this drives me crazy when people do this) and most important of all if you are sick (with anything) don't travel, don't go to public events/gathering, don't go to your office and get everyone sick. Take a few days and get well for everyone's benefit. We have for way too long took the perspective as a whole that you should fight thru any sickness and go about your normal days. Some preventive measures along with intelligence goes a long way.

[superdog]

904VT.

What you say has perfect validity. Thank you for speaking so clearly.

I agree with your sentiment. And if there were no preparation it would be a different story. I think what frustrates me, and some like me, is the level of panic this has been taken to.

Yes, it is very important to prepare. Way back in this thread I stated where I stocked up. I have food and TP and everything else to last me months. I kid you not...I am very much prepared. Everything is in plastic bins ready to go.

The level of where we are is ridiculous. Shutting down a country is ridiculous.

Why are they doing it? Cancel culture is why. People are so terrified that the peanut gallery will come in after the fact and cancel them because they did not do enough.

So, instead they are doing too much. Our news media in the US is a classic example of this. They love it because it gives them product. With no product they have no viewers. With no viewers they have no advertising and no revenue.

This is a dream for them. And IMHO yes, they created this culture. It is easy to second guess someone after the fact. It is easy to make the right decisions once the situation has unfolded.

By far, the panic is doing more damage than the virus. Again, I agree we need to be prepared. We need to be vigilant and we need to be alert to more potential risk.

But we also need to be level headed and calm. Calm helps every situation develop into a better situation. Panic does the exact opposite.