the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[77T]

Deleted

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by 77T

Deleted

[77T]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

I had missed your point about steroid combo. Was only focusing on the NSAID alone.




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[GoingPlaces]

Originally Posted by Silvio_86

Small update from Italy.... up to now I am ok... my family too.... but.... people from bergamo and brescia (north east of Milan area) are suffering the most... all factories non related to food will be closed till 3rd of april... Ferrari closed too but we are smart working... here we have tested at least 300k people... don't know how it is going elsewhere in the world, but my opinion is that everyone in critical areas should be tested.

I noticed the numbers - both for new cases and deaths - for Italy declined over yesterday, hoping this is the beginning of a positive trend downward. Fingers crossed.

[Mosco]

OHIO just went to ‘shelter in place’ order

[superdog]

Has anyone been talking about the increase in tests being performed?

I ask because I might have missed it.

But I see the media in a panic that so many more people are testing positive. In my estimation that’s because there are so many more tests being performed.

But if we now have far more testing positive, doesn’t that mean it’s driving down the rate of fatalities?

Coupled with the fact that there appears to be agreement that many people are completely asymptomatic, there are likely significantly more people that have it, but don’t know.

Just food for thought. And maybe I’m behind on this topic, but I haven’t see this thought process yet.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by superdog

Has anyone been talking about the increase in tests being performed?

I ask because I might have missed it.

But I see the media in a panic that so many more people are testing positive. In my estimation that’s because there are so many more tests being performed.

But if we now have far more testing positive, doesn’t that mean it’s driving down the rate of fatalities?

Coupled with the fact that there appears to be agreement that many people are completely asymptomatic, there are likely significantly more people that have it, but don’t know.

Just food for thought. And maybe I’m behind on this topic, but I haven’t see this thought process yet.

All the testing has driven down the percentage of fatalities. However that’s not a very popular thing to talk about on most news stations. We are currently at a 1.2% death rate in the United States. I suspect that number will go down even more once more people get tested this week and next week.

[superdog]

One governor just stated that he thinks 40-80% of his states residents will contract the disease.

That’s a massive swing. A 100% difference. Seems like his estimations are likely a reaction, rather than based in science.

Doesn’t seem responsible to me. Yes, this is very serious. There is no denying that. But I’m still on the fence as to wether or not we need to destroy the entire worlds economic system while fighting this fight.

[dimag333]

Originally Posted by Art 1

That's good. The downer is that they are not a USA plant, hopefully we have learned a lesson in all this.

Originally Posted by superdog

One governor just stated that he thinks 40-80% of his states residents will contract the disease.

That’s a massive swing. A 100% difference. Seems like his estimations are likely a reaction, rather than based in science.

Doesn’t seem responsible to me. Yes, this is very serious. There is no denying that. But I’m still on the fence as to wether or not we need to destroy the entire worlds economic system while fighting this fight.

I’m with you & my sister in law works in the hospital at all of the fatalities down here happened in & my grandmother was also just moved from this hospital. So petty much as close as it gets.

steve

[mgsooner]

Transcripts of Fauci & Gottlieb on Face The Nation today. Calm, measured, no BS. Obviously a very dangerous situation but it’s not all doom & gloom.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcr...march-22-2020/

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcr...march-22-2020/

[Art 1]

Hope some of y’all can get out and relax.


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[superdog]

Originally Posted by Art 1

Hope some of y’all can get out and relax.


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Great pic!!!

We just got in from a long walk. It was wonderful.

[dimag333]

Originally Posted by mgsooner

Transcripts of Fauci & Gottlieb on Face The Nation today. Calm, measured, no BS. Obviously a very dangerous situation but it’s not all doom & gloom.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcr...march-22-2020/

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcr...march-22-2020/

Dude is on point, no bs exactly

steve

[JParm]

Originally Posted by Art 1

Hope some of y’all can get out and relax.


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We took the boys out on a bike ride.

We're practicing social distancing and staying away from others, but it doesn't mean you can't go out for a run by yourself in the morning or do things like this. Not taking the kids to the playground or anything like that, though.

[kieselguhr]

Originally Posted by Lomez

FRom what ive seen so far, we could benefit from having a stricter threshold for admission,

Our group has stopped all elective cases so no peripherals. Cardiac on a case by case basis. Clinic is telemedicine only. A colleague got chewed out by the intensivist because he fixed a left carotid outpatient and needed an ICU bed for Neuro assessment. Problem was the ICU is stacked with
R/O covids. But at that point what do you do? Not fix and hope he doesn’t stroke out?

[kieselguhr]

Originally Posted by superdog

But I see the media in a panic that so many more people are testing positive. In my estimation that’s because there are so many more tests being performed.

But if we now have far more testing positive, doesn’t that mean it’s driving down the rate of fatalities?

Coupled with the fact that there appears to be agreement that many people are completely asymptomatic, there are likely significantly more people that have it, but don’t know.

That’s an accurate observation and conclusion Seth. It’s pointless and a waste of resources to blanket test everybody and it really should be reserved for symptomatic patients requiring ventilation support and healthcare workers.

[djgallo]

Originally Posted by superdog

One governor just stated that he thinks 40-80% of his states residents will contract the disease.

That’s a massive swing. A 100% difference. Seems like his estimations are likely a reaction, rather than based in science.

It’s only a projection, and could be correct based on.....duration that the virus is active over time. It will be here with us until we get a vaccine....so yes I can see 80% or higher even....

Doesn’t seem responsible to me. Yes, this is very serious. There is no denying that. But I’m still on the fence as to wether or not we need to destroy the entire worlds economic system while fighting this fight.

Currently, slowing the rate of infection is the preferred course, I agree it is the best option right now, but time will tell.....

[Moggo]

What made SARS more containable than COVID-19?

I don’t really remember much about SARS, where it originated etc

Was it less contagious?

Excuse my ignorance.


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[Michigan_State]

I believe that I read that SARS was more infectious but symptoms were pretty much visible right away while you can carry Corona around for up to 21 days without knowing or showing signs of it

[MichaelFlash]

My 13 year old doing a social distance yoga class.

[77T]

Originally Posted by Moggo

What made SARS more containable than COVID-19?

I don’t really remember much about SARS, where it originated etc

Was it less contagious?

Excuse my ignorance.


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The LA Times did a fairly understandable SARS explanation last month.

The upshot for me as it relates to coronavirus was this:
“The SARS outbreak, which reached 29 countries, was ultimately contained using traditional public health measures, such as testing, isolating patients and screening people at airports and other places where they might spread the virus, Gostin said. The strategy is simple: If sick people can be stopped from infecting healthy people, the disease will eventually die off.”


https://www.latimes.com/california/s...china-epidemic


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[statsman]

As far as destroying the world’s economy- I look at it like this: this is like a war, a war none of us picked. This virus wants to kill a whole lot of us. We want to kill it.

Losing a shooting war is the worst thing that can happen to your economy, so bad that nations will do whatever is possible to win, no matter how extreme. In WWII, the US instituted a mandatory draft and exploded the budget with defense spending.

This is not a shooting war, but we can make the case for sacrifices as if it were. Forget the budget this year. Try to bear the workforce disruptions. Let the government do what it has to to keep people reasonably whole. If we do it right, it will cost less than the post 911 venture.

By the way, this website if for enthusiasts of a product from Switzerland. Currently, 8 out of 10,000 Swiss have tested positive, the most in the world (I suspect Italy and Iran may be worse, but not as thorough in testing).

[Moggo]

Originally Posted by 77T

The LA Times did a fairly understandable SARS explanation last month.

The upshot for me as it relates to coronavirus was this:
“The SARS outbreak, which reached 29 countries, was ultimately contained using traditional public health measures, such as testing, isolating patients and screening people at airports and other places where they might spread the virus, Gostin said. The strategy is simple: If sick people can be stopped from infecting healthy people, the disease will eventually die off.”


https://www.latimes.com/california/s...china-epidemic


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Interesting reading, many thanks for the link


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[sillo]

Originally Posted by Moggo

What made SARS more containable than COVID-19?

I believe one of the main reasons it was more containable was because it was much more deadly. The virus couldn't infect people faster than it was killing people once the proper measures were implemented so it eventually just died out.

COVID-19 is less severe in most cases so it's also much easier to spread. Asymptomatic people can go around spreading it like crazy without even realizing.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by statsman

As far as destroying the world’s economy- I look at it like this: this is like a war, a war none of us picked. This virus wants to kill a whole lot of us. We want to kill it.

Losing a shooting war is the worst thing that can happen to your economy, so bad that nations will do whatever is possible to win, no matter how extreme. In WWII, the US instituted a mandatory draft and exploded the budget with defense spending.

This is not a shooting war, but we can make the case for sacrifices as if it were. Forget the budget this year. Try to bear the workforce disruptions. Let the government do what it has to to keep people reasonably whole. If we do it right, it will cost less than the post 911 venture.

By the way, this website if for enthusiasts of a product from Switzerland. Currently, 8 out of 10,000 Swiss have tested positive, the most in the world (I suspect Italy and Iran may be worse, but not as thorough in testing).

Thoughtful post.

Stay safe.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Thoughtful post.

Stay safe.

Sigh. Sigh. Sigh....

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by statsman

As far as destroying the world’s economy- I look at it like this: this is like a war, a war none of us picked. This virus wants to kill a whole lot of us. We want to kill it.

Losing a shooting war is the worst thing that can happen to your economy, so bad that nations will do whatever is possible to win, no matter how extreme. In WWII, the US instituted a mandatory draft and exploded the budget with defense spending.

This is not a shooting war, but we can make the case for sacrifices as if it were. Forget the budget this year. Try to bear the workforce disruptions. Let the government do what it has to to keep people reasonably whole. If we do it right, it will cost less than the post 911 venture.

By the way, this website if for enthusiasts of a product from Switzerland. Currently, 8 out of 10,000 Swiss have tested positive, the most in the world (I suspect Italy and Iran may be worse, but not as thorough in testing).

Interesting that you call the estimated 25% to 30% coming unemployment “workforce disruptions”.

I would personally call it a 100 year economic catastrophe but that’s just me.

[Burlington]

Originally Posted by sillo

I believe one of the main reasons it was more containable was because it was much more deadly. The virus couldn't infect people faster than it was killing people once the proper measures were implemented so it eventually just died out.

COVID-19 is less severe in most cases so it's also much easier to spread. Asymptomatic people can go around spreading it like crazy without even realizing.

This is also my understanding from what I’ve read.

The virus seems to fit quite a number of Goldilocks criteria. Easily spread by those whom are asymptomatic or yet to display symptoms, impairs a huge percent of the population with hospitalisation. Deadly in quite high numbers (made worse by the hospitals being overwhelmed by the walking & recoverable sick) but not so deadly it doesn’t have chance to pass host-to-host.

I have a horrible feeling this coming week is going to be bad for the UK & US. Even if the increasingly stringent social isolation of last week stopped 100% of new transmissions (which it hasn’t) there are still two weeks worth of people walking round with it totally unaware of what’s to come.

[gnuyork]

My wife just shared with me these pics from her uncle in a Walmart in Pensacola. This is ALARMING:

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by gnuyork

My wife just shared with me these pics from her uncle in a Walmart in Pensacola. This is ALARMING:

Well...... 24/7 negative news and boom empty stores. Works 100% of the time it’s done.