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Old 28 February 2020, 05:45 AM   #391
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Your math is wrong. If odds of dying are 3.75%, how do you come up with 99%+ chances of surviving? That would be 96.25% wouldn't it?

How many people on the planet right now, 7.5Bn? Possible death toll: 281.25 million people. That's 86% of US population to give us an idea.

COVID-19 is not exactly innocuous. But other than the relatively small death rate compared to other viruses, I'm also worried about the logistics: cities quarantined, no public transport, limited supplies in hospitals, hospitals overwhelmed, limited transport of goods including food, etc. Could be a chaos.
Thatís my concern as well. This will throw a wrench in the cogs. Doesnít take much to disrupt the modern consumer lifestyle.
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Old 28 February 2020, 05:46 AM   #392
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Youíre wasting your time and energy. You wonít change his mind and thatís that.

Itís very clear. You either see the virus as a threat and will prepare for it or you donít care about it in any fashion and will do nothing. Thatís a personal decision guided by many factors including contrarianism. Good Luck Everybody!
Agreed! These arguments about low likelihood but potentially calamitous events always end up this way. I'm glad that there is information out there from reliable sources and we are fortunate to be free to do with it what we wish. Wash hands, prepare for possible (and likely) infection for you and family members, prepare for the way that those less prepared will react if the poop interacts with the fan blades.
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Old 28 February 2020, 05:50 AM   #393
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You’re wasting your time and energy. You won’t change his mind and that’s that.

It’s very clear. You either see the virus as a threat and will prepare for it or you don’t care about it in any fashion and will do nothing. That’s a personal decision guided by many factors including contrarianism. Good Luck Everybody!
It seems common for online discussions that are vaguely contentious to devolve into two polar opposite positions. What’s interesting is that this is not because everybody involved in the discussion has a view at one extreme or other (though some obviously do) but rather because it seems to be human nature to simplify and pigeon-hole other people’s opinions and ignore the nuance.

In this case I believe there are plenty of people on here whose views actually fall in between the two positions you list: that the virus is a potentially serious global threat that may require individuals to prepare for the worst in due course but that it may also be the subject of hyperbolic, catastrophising, worst-case-scenario reporting in some sections of the media (I’m not sure anybody has ever made much money selling good-news stories) and by commenters online.
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Old 28 February 2020, 05:54 AM   #394
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So, 80,000 ish cases have been reported, 2,600 ish people have perished, (I will pray for them and their families).

So, (according to my math anyone feel free to correct me) IF you are unfortunate to contact be infected with this virus, the odds are (roughy) .0375 that you will succumb and die. Or 99% + that you will survive.

MHO
Your math is off 10 fold. Right now the death rate is about 3,7%. Which is crazy high. 2.6K divided by 80K.

I really hope a lot more people have been affected, and our numbers are off!
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Old 28 February 2020, 05:57 AM   #395
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A hotel is quarantined on Tenerife, over 1000 people. Say they would all have been infected, at current mortality rate that would be 37 dead.
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Old 28 February 2020, 06:01 AM   #396
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So, 80,000 ish cases have been reported, 2,600 ish people have perished, (I will pray for them and their families).

So, (according to my math anyone feel free to correct me) IF you are unfortunate to contact be infected with this virus, the odds are (roughy) .0375 that you will succumb and die. Or 99% + that you will survive. Add to that, the world population of four + Billion, and 80,000 have contracted the disease, that means the odds are ... 8,944.91... or... 389.000 Well, thatís a lot of math, but you get the picture.

Compare that to the Influenza virus, Millions get it, and 50,000 plus die every year. I understand the death rate is much less then Corona as a percentage of those who are infected, but the chances of contracting Corona are much lower then flu.

Thatís why I still donít get the panic. It feels like preppers are spring loaded to the Zombie apocalypse and are fueling the mayhem. Just MHO
sorry paul your math is wrong. .0375 is 3.75% so realistically you have a 96.25% chance of survival based on the numbers above
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Old 28 February 2020, 06:19 AM   #397
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Old 28 February 2020, 06:35 AM   #398
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Well the first documented infection in my country (the Netherlands) is a thing. Might have to avoid public transport now
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Old 28 February 2020, 07:39 AM   #399
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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Donald Trumpís administration is considering invoking special powers through a law called the Defense Production Act to rapidly expand domestic manufacturing of protective masks and clothing to combat the coronavirus in the United States, two U.S. officials told Reuters.

Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Alex Azar told lawmakers this week that the United States needs a stockpile of about 300 million N95 face masks - respiratory protective devices - to combat the spread of the virus. The United States currently has only a fraction of that number available for immediate use, Azar testified.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKCN20L2S0
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Old 28 February 2020, 07:55 AM   #400
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Agreed! These arguments about low likelihood but potentially calamitous events always end up this way. I'm glad that there is information out there from reliable sources and we are fortunate to be free to do with it what we wish. Wash hands, prepare for possible (and likely) infection for you and family members, prepare for the way that those less prepared will react if the poop interacts with the fan blades.
I have enough supplies to last my family in isolatIon for about a year if we have a complete social and economic breakdown. Iíve been prepared for this for well over a decade. But that doesnít change the fact in my opinion the United States is way over reacting to this. Just like we do other things. It seems to get worse every year.
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Old 28 February 2020, 08:04 AM   #401
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Old 28 February 2020, 08:08 AM   #402
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Thats a good measure but this is very revealing on how dependent we are on China. If a full outbreak surfaces we will be on very short supply on the medicine, masks, and hazmat suit side. Right now while death rate is a concern, the bigger issue is how the virus can essentially cripple an economy and the health care system.

The Chinese government has power that is unprecedented in western countries. They can go to extremes to contain the virus that countries like the USA would be unlikely to use. They have pulled people off the streets for violating curfew and they're never heard from again. The CCP can essentially take whatever measures necessary and the citizens wouldn't be able to do anything about it. People have been arrested for just spitting on the ground. In the US we have been spoiled and taken many freedoms for granted. Also they can build a 1000 bed hospital in 10 days.... At least from my experience in NYC we'd be lucky to get a 1000 bed hospital in 6 months if we depends on the unions
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Old 28 February 2020, 08:14 AM   #403
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the Coronavirus outbreak thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy View Post
So, 80,000 ish cases have been reported, 2,600 ish people have perished, (I will pray for them and their families).

So, (according to my math anyone feel free to correct me) IF you are unfortunate to contact be infected with this virus, the odds are (roughy) .0375 that you will succumb and die. Or 99% + that you will survive. Add to that, the world population of four + Billion, and 80,000 have contracted the disease, that means the odds are ... 8,944.91... or... 389.000 Well, thatís a lot of math, but you get the picture.

Compare that to the Influenza virus, Millions get it, and 50,000 plus die every year. I understand the death rate is much less then Corona as a percentage of those who are infected, but the chances of contracting Corona are much lower then flu.

Thatís why I still donít get the panic. It feels like preppers are spring loaded to the Zombie apocalypse and are fueling the mayhem. Just MHO


Youíre math is probably directionally correct. Even if the denominator and numerator are off by 100% or more - the probability of surviving is high.

Where the fear comes in could be anybodyís guess. I think the last time I saw such panic was the info-gap in the week(s) after 9|11 - in that case, ďfear of fear itselfĒ.

COVID-19 is novel, it stays resident inside for 2 weeks then one becomes very ill. During that time dozens of casual contacts could be made. No health professional is better that 90% confident on transmission - airborne vs contact and of pathogen lifespan on surfaces.

In any large city, just going to the mall could put you in contact with someone, who met someone else, who was infected by a friend or family member, who came back to USA with COVID-19.

Itís like the 7 degrees of Kevin Bacon. I think that is unreasoned fear.

The one guy in California may have infected over 100 others by primary, secondary or tertiary contact when the virus remained undiscovered. Not in the hospital where they followed protocols even when the CDC declined testing him - but as he was becoming ill before going to the hospital.

I agree that panic is not reasoned based on the current state of this disease.


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Last edited by 77T; 28 February 2020 at 08:20 AM.. Reason: Fixed typos
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Old 28 February 2020, 08:19 AM   #404
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You should never tell anyone what you have at home. Theyíll remember when theyíre hungry.


ok...
...but I bet Brett would spot you a burger if you made it all the way to Tampa...


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Old 28 February 2020, 08:25 AM   #405
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ok...
...but I bet Brett would spot you a burger if you made it all the way to Tampa...


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Appreciate the correction. Just donít tell your neighbors.
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Old 28 February 2020, 08:29 AM   #406
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You should never tell anyone what you have at home. Theyíll remember when theyíre hungry.
You have to remember I live in a free state. Iím not really thinking someone would want to come to my house to try to take anything.

But you have a good point. Iím also not thinking that type of person frequents this forum.
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Old 28 February 2020, 08:29 AM   #407
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ok...
...but I bet Brett would spot you a burger if you made it all the way to Tampa...


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To be honest with you I absolutely would. With open arms.
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Old 28 February 2020, 08:49 AM   #408
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It all depends what news channel you watch, there is left and there is right.

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Old 28 February 2020, 10:30 AM   #409
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Old 28 February 2020, 10:30 AM   #410
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You have to remember I live in a free state. Iím not really thinking someone would want to come to my house to try to take anything.

But you have a good point. Iím also not thinking that type of person frequents this forum.


We are all family here.

And a burger sounds awesome!! Especially right now. What a day. Argh.
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Old 28 February 2020, 10:50 AM   #411
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Old 28 February 2020, 11:16 AM   #412
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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKCN20L2S0


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Old 28 February 2020, 11:38 AM   #413
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I think the death rates are calculated incorrectly. Yes, it is a highly contagious virus but the mortality rate isn't alarmingly high. First of all, 84K confirmed cases is just that. Confirmed. The number of people that are already carrying the virus is probably a lot higher, which means the mortality rate of this virus is far lower.

Additionally, the mortality rate high in special groups, i.e. elderly, already sick, people with chronic diseases. If you are healthy and strong, the chances of this becoming lethal is much lower.

However tragic any and all loss of human life is, the real impact of this pandemic (just let's call it for what it is at this point) goes beyond people getting sick - it is that it may also cause a global economic downturn, and it may happen faster than any of us can expect. If major events keep getting canceled (Mobile World Congress with 100K visitors to Barcelona was recently canceled, Summer Olympics in Tokyo is already at risk, etc) it will affect employment in service sectors like hotels, restaurants, shopping malls, etc. That means less delivery of food/material to the transportation sector, airlines, which affect price of energy, which affects... People lose their jobs, tax revenues decline, countries default on debt, yada, yada, yada.

I'm trying to panic anyone, but everything is interlinked. Global economies and supply chains. It is kind of mindblowing that what started off with a few businessmen in a Chinese province insisting on eating wild animals like bats, snakes and rats has now created a new virus strand which directly or indirectly affects hundreds of millions of people around the entire world.

Now is not the time to panic but to be smart, prepared, well informed and compassionate for fellow human beings. This too shall pass.
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Old 28 February 2020, 01:17 PM   #414
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I have enough supplies to last my family in isolatIon for about a year if we have a complete social and economic breakdown. Iíve been prepared for this for well over a decade. But that doesnít change the fact in my opinion the United States is way over reacting to this. Just like we do other things. It seems to get worse every year.

Cant imagine that happening. In reading Washington, Adams, Hamilton Bios, etc... epidemics were part of life here in the US in the 1700's and in the entire world for hundreds of years in fact. Sure people would clear out of the cities from time to time, but society did indeed go on. It was disruptive to be sure, but business, politics, farming ,etc...went on as it always has. Each day, 3287 people die in auto accidents every day, and 1 million die from Mosquitoes every year. We as humans have an interesting tendency to fear the wrong things.
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Old 28 February 2020, 03:27 PM   #415
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Cant imagine that happening. In reading Washington, Adams, Hamilton Bios, etc... epidemics were part of life here in the US in the 1700's and in the entire world for hundreds of years in fact. Sure people would clear out of the cities from time to time, but society did indeed go on. It was disruptive to be sure, but business, politics, farming ,etc...went on as it always has. Each day, 3287 people die in auto accidents every day, and 1 million die from Mosquitoes every year. We as humans have an interesting tendency to fear the wrong things.


Itís hard to compare then and now. Back then you couldnít travel so easily across cities let alone across the globe.



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Old 28 February 2020, 03:48 PM   #416
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The market is focused on earnings, and how this will impact those earnings, nothing more.

To paraphrase something I am sure you are familiar with -- the market does not care about your feelings on the media.
You are 100% correct.

The rest is just noise. Anybody that thinks any different clearly has zero understanding of how the markets work.

The stock market doesn't watch the news
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Old 28 February 2020, 04:22 PM   #417
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You are 100% correct.

The rest is just noise. Anybody that thinks any different clearly has zero understanding of how the markets work.

The stock market doesn't watch the news

This recent drop is panic driven by fear... not some massive revaluation to an 18 P/E ratio from 20.

Remember there are always the same number of shares bought and shares sold each day... this will blow over.
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Old 28 February 2020, 08:13 PM   #418
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You are 100% correct.

The rest is just noise. Anybody that thinks any different clearly has zero understanding of how the markets work.

The stock market doesn't watch the news
Do you realize what you just said? I really want you to reflect on your statement.

This entire selloff has been because of the news. Read the investment threads on this very forum and youíll see quite a few self-proclaimed stock market geniuses (I have no problem with that by the way) dumping all their stocks because of this coronavirus. Now they either heard about it on the news and watched other people panic selling so they did the same or theyíre all psychics and it came to them in a dream.
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Old 28 February 2020, 08:15 PM   #419
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This recent drop is panic driven by fear... not some massive revaluation to an 18 P/E ratio from 20.

Remember there are always the same number of shares bought and shares sold each day... this will blow over.
Exactly. I guess sometime during the day today a whole bunch of people will come in and say you donít know anything about the stock market.
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Old 28 February 2020, 08:32 PM   #420
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The market is a reflection of how people think or feel about the future. An investor buys because he believes a stock will be worth more in the future.

To wave off panic and overreaction as noise is to misunderstand the market. Stock prices are of course influenced by technical valuation calculations but not bound to them.

You can insist it is just noise all you want and smugly insist the answer is always "do nothing, ignore volatility" but I'd rather be the guy that accepts that panic happens, pulled money out days ago and can get back in at a 10% discount.

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