the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[Andad]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Seth, that is the most romantic proposal I’ve ever heard. I wish you two nothing but happiness.

I had my suspicions but was never sure.....until now.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Seth, that is the most romantic proposal I’ve ever heard. I wish you two nothing but happiness.

Pictures or it didn't happen. Papers or it's not legal.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Seth, that is the most romantic proposal I’ve ever heard. I wish you two nothing but happiness.

Originally Posted by directioneng

I had my suspicions but was never sure.....until now.

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Pictures or it didn't happen. Papers or it's not legal.

You guys are the best!!!!

[Tavli3]

I spoke to a friend of mine who is in the midst of the battle going on in the country financially and he is also impacted by the virus. So here's two perspectives one medical and one financial.

His business partner was showing symptoms and is asthmatic so he went to his doctor for testing. The doctor told him they cannot do a test because they don't have testing equipment. He also said that we shouldn't waste time going for a test. He said I can write you a script for you to go to a testing facility where you'll wait on line for 6 hrs or more and then wait several days for the results. Or we can use our common sense and assume you have the virus based on your symptoms and take action now.

He decided to take action immediately, doc gave him scripts for Zpak and one of the malaria drugs, told him to go home, take as many supplements as you can/have, drink as much fluid as you can and stay in bed. 3 days later he is now recovering little by little.

I said this is the doctor I want to go to god forbid I or any family member becomes infected. I know many people with symptoms that have been refused the test because they don't meet the specific CDC criteria. Which means these people remained sick at home until they needed to be hospitalized.

a friend of mine from Germany emailed me and asked me why so many people dying in the US when in Germany the death rate is a much much lower. I explained to her that people cannot be tested and they linger with the virus far too long before being able to get treatment.

As soon as anyone shows symptoms they should be able to be tested, period. Otherwise this flattening of the curve is going to be a ways off.

Financially I asked my friend whats going on in the real world. First in his oil fracking business he has shutdown all his wells and since he has no debt he has basically put all his oil in storage. He said he is trying to buy more oil properties but the bidding has been intense and properties are going for unrealistic prices. The complete opposite of what I thought would be happening. Tells me the players in the field see a light at the end of the tunnel otherwise they would not be wanting to commit new capitol. Those in heavy debt will be bought out by those not in debt and the oil assets will be preserved for better times by stronger hands.

On the real estate side he has close to 700 tenants ranging from H&M and Swatch company to mom & pop stores. First everybody has stopped paying rent. So I said what are you doing. His response was its based on what the lender on each property is willing to do. He said some banks are being reasonable, most are being sort of reasonable completely unreasonable, in fact some are getting downright ugly. In the case of the H&M property for instance the bank is willing to wave principal payments for 2 months but he has to pay interest and he has the fixed coats of maintaining the property in addition to the interest payments. He offered the same deal to H&M and the other tenants and is waiting to hear back. At other properties where the banks are not willing to do anything he has no choice but to insist on the rents being paid. He knows that most will be unable to, the supermarkets, pharmacies and some others will have no problem but for most its simply not possible.

So I think this is going to be an unmitigated disaster for small business owners especially the ones in locations with banks unwilling to work with people. Big business will survive because they can do what they want and have the legal ability to fight. Mom & Pop don't have that luxury. And even though they will receive some relief from the CARE package I fear it will be too little too late.

So I said what happens if this thing goes on for two more months and he said he has no idea but it won't be pretty. People will be forced out of business with no coming back and this will be a true tragedy financially for small business owners and their employees.

This could have been mitigated if China wasn't China and had been more open and if we were able to do mass testing a month ago.

If you want to get a handle on the virus is progressing follow the death rate not new cases. It takes about 21 days from time of symptoms to time of death. So if you put whatever mortality rate on it that you want and work the number backwards you get to the real number of infected today. Even if you put a .5% mortality rate on it the numbers are still very scary and work out be where Dr Faucci said he thinks/hopes they will be. Oh by the way I'm sure there a lot of people like my friend's partner who are infected but will not be tested so they won't show up in the official numbers. Another reason the number of infections is a meaningless number. But if he died he would show up in the death tally making the mortality rate artificially higher than it is. But as I've said even with a rate as low as .5% the numbers are scary.

I've been telling my friends don't pay any attention to what you hear, look at what the government does. The fact that the restrictions have been extended by 30 days and not just another 2 weeks is very telling. Stay safe and the best to all!

[sgwatchguy]

Taiwan says WHO not sharing coronavirus information it provides, pressing complaints

https://in.reuters.com/article/healt...-idINKBN21H1BS

This is shameful. The WHO needs to be scrapped and rebuilt minus the political BS.

The Taiwanese have a grip and have controlled the outbreak. For the WHO to suppress information being shared by them, due to political influence of China, is not just shameful, it directly complicates contagion control and leads to more deaths.


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[GB-man]

Originally Posted by Tavli3

I spoke to a friend of mine who is in the midst of the battle going on in the country financially and he is also impacted by the virus. So here's two perspectives one medical and one financial.



His business partner was showing symptoms and is asthmatic so he went to his doctor for testing. The doctor told him they cannot do a test because they don't have testing equipment. He also said that we shouldn't waste time going for a test. He said I can write you a script for you to go to a testing facility where you'll wait on line for 6 hrs or more and then wait several days for the results. Or we can use our common sense and assume you have the virus based on your symptoms and take action now.



He decided to take action immediately, doc gave him scripts for Zpak and one of the malaria drugs, told him to go home, take as many supplements as you can/have, drink as much fluid as you can and stay in bed. 3 days later he is now recovering little by little.



I said this is the doctor I want to go to god forbid I or any family member becomes infected. I know many people with symptoms that have been refused the test because they don't meet the specific CDC criteria. Which means these people remained sick at home until they needed to be hospitalized.



a friend of mine from Germany emailed me and asked me why so many people dying in the US when in Germany the death rate is a much much lower. I explained to her that people cannot be tested and they linger with the virus far too long before being able to get treatment.



As soon as anyone shows symptoms they should be able to be tested, period. Otherwise this flattening of the curve is going to be a ways off.



Financially I asked my friend whats going on in the real world. First in his oil fracking business he has shutdown all his wells and since he has no debt he has basically put all his oil in storage. He said he is trying to buy more oil properties but the bidding has been intense and properties are going for unrealistic prices. The complete opposite of what I thought would be happening. Tells me the players in the field see a light at the end of the tunnel otherwise they would not be wanting to commit new capitol. Those in heavy debt will be bought out by those not in debt and the oil assets will be preserved for better times by stronger hands.



On the real estate side he has close to 700 tenants ranging from H&M and Swatch company to mom & pop stores. First everybody has stopped paying rent. So I said what are you doing. His response was its based on what the lender on each property is willing to do. He said some banks are being reasonable, most are being sort of reasonable completely unreasonable, in fact some are getting downright ugly. In the case of the H&M property for instance the bank is willing to wave principal payments for 2 months but he has to pay interest and he has the fixed coats of maintaining the property in addition to the interest payments. He offered the same deal to H&M and the other tenants and is waiting to hear back. At other properties where the banks are not willing to do anything he has no choice but to insist on the rents being paid. He knows that most will be unable to, the supermarkets, pharmacies and some others will have no problem but for most its simply not possible.



So I think this is going to be an unmitigated disaster for small business owners especially the ones in locations with banks unwilling to work with people. Big business will survive because they can do what they want and have the legal ability to fight. Mom & Pop don't have that luxury. And even though they will receive some relief from the CARE package I fear it will be too little too late.



So I said what happens if this thing goes on for two more months and he said he has no idea but it won't be pretty. People will be forced out of business with no coming back and this will be a true tragedy financially for small business owners and their employees.



This could have been mitigated if China wasn't China and had been more open and if we were able to do mass testing a month ago.



If you want to get a handle on the virus is progressing follow the death rate not new cases. It takes about 21 days from time of symptoms to time of death. So if you put whatever mortality rate on it that you want and work the number backwards you get to the real number of infected today. Even if you put a .5% mortality rate on it the numbers are still very scary and work out be where Dr Faucci said he thinks/hopes they will be. Oh by the way I'm sure there a lot of people like my friend's partner who are infected but will not be tested so they won't show up in the official numbers. Another reason the number of infections is a meaningless number. But if he died he would show up in the death tally making the mortality rate artificially higher than it is. But as I've said even with a rate as low as .5% the numbers are scary.



I've been telling my friends don't pay any attention to what you hear, look at what the government does. The fact that the restrictions have been extended by 30 days and not just another 2 weeks is very telling. Stay safe and the best to all!

Excellent post. My only comment is it was discussed here that Germany has a different system for classification of Covid deaths that results in its lower numbers. Not wrong but different.

[BigBlue1]

Originally Posted by Tavli3

I spoke to a friend of mine who is in the midst of the battle going on in the country financially and he is also impacted by the virus. So here's two perspectives one medical and one financial.

His business partner was showing symptoms and is asthmatic so he went to his doctor for testing. The doctor told him they cannot do a test because they don't have testing equipment. He also said that we shouldn't waste time going for a test. He said I can write you a script for you to go to a testing facility where you'll wait on line for 6 hrs or more and then wait several days for the results. Or we can use our common sense and assume you have the virus based on your symptoms and take action now.

He decided to take action immediately, doc gave him scripts for Zpak and one of the malaria drugs, told him to go home, take as many supplements as you can/have, drink as much fluid as you can and stay in bed. 3 days later he is now recovering little by little.

I said this is the doctor I want to go to god forbid I or any family member becomes infected. I know many people with symptoms that have been refused the test because they don't meet the specific CDC criteria. Which means these people remained sick at home until they needed to be hospitalized.

a friend of mine from Germany emailed me and asked me why so many people dying in the US when in Germany the death rate is a much much lower. I explained to her that people cannot be tested and they linger with the virus far too long before being able to get treatment.

As soon as anyone shows symptoms they should be able to be tested, period. Otherwise this flattening of the curve is going to be a ways off.

Financially I asked my friend whats going on in the real world. First in his oil fracking business he has shutdown all his wells and since he has no debt he has basically put all his oil in storage. He said he is trying to buy more oil properties but the bidding has been intense and properties are going for unrealistic prices. The complete opposite of what I thought would be happening. Tells me the players in the field see a light at the end of the tunnel otherwise they would not be wanting to commit new capitol. Those in heavy debt will be bought out by those not in debt and the oil assets will be preserved for better times by stronger hands.

On the real estate side he has close to 700 tenants ranging from H&M and Swatch company to mom & pop stores. First everybody has stopped paying rent. So I said what are you doing. His response was its based on what the lender on each property is willing to do. He said some banks are being reasonable, most are being sort of reasonable completely unreasonable, in fact some are getting downright ugly. In the case of the H&M property for instance the bank is willing to wave principal payments for 2 months but he has to pay interest and he has the fixed coats of maintaining the property in addition to the interest payments. He offered the same deal to H&M and the other tenants and is waiting to hear back. At other properties where the banks are not willing to do anything he has no choice but to insist on the rents being paid. He knows that most will be unable to, the supermarkets, pharmacies and some others will have no problem but for most its simply not possible.

So I think this is going to be an unmitigated disaster for small business owners especially the ones in locations with banks unwilling to work with people. Big business will survive because they can do what they want and have the legal ability to fight. Mom & Pop don't have that luxury. And even though they will receive some relief from the CARE package I fear it will be too little too late.

So I said what happens if this thing goes on for two more months and he said he has no idea but it won't be pretty. People will be forced out of business with no coming back and this will be a true tragedy financially for small business owners and their employees.

This could have been mitigated if China wasn't China and had been more open and if we were able to do mass testing a month ago.

If you want to get a handle on the virus is progressing follow the death rate not new cases. It takes about 21 days from time of symptoms to time of death. So if you put whatever mortality rate on it that you want and work the number backwards you get to the real number of infected today. Even if you put a .5% mortality rate on it the numbers are still very scary and work out be where Dr Faucci said he thinks/hopes they will be. Oh by the way I'm sure there a lot of people like my friend's partner who are infected but will not be tested so they won't show up in the official numbers. Another reason the number of infections is a meaningless number. But if he died he would show up in the death tally making the mortality rate artificially higher than it is. But as I've said even with a rate as low as .5% the numbers are scary.

I've been telling my friends don't pay any attention to what you hear, look at what the government does. The fact that the restrictions have been extended by 30 days and not just another 2 weeks is very telling. Stay safe and the best to all!

[Star Ferry]

Originally Posted by sgwatchguy

Taiwan says WHO not sharing coronavirus information it provides, pressing complaints

https://in.reuters.com/article/healt...-idINKBN21H1BS

This is shameful. The WHO needs to be scrapped and rebuilt minus the political BS.

The Taiwanese have a grip and have controlled the outbreak. For the WHO to suppress information being shared by them, due to political influence of China, is not just shameful, it directly complicates contagion control and leads to more deaths.

Lots of questions about them. In January they posted "Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China"

Despite a name that sounds important, their credibility is gone. It's a slush fund that pays for their own salaries and perks. They're not helping the US either. Let's all join in ignoring them

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Excellent post. My only comment is it was discussed here that Germany has a different system for classification of Covid deaths that results in its lower numbers. Not wrong but different.

Thank you for pointing that out. You are correct. Germany counts the dead in a much different way than we do and a completely different than the way Italy does. I would also point out that this his comments on testing just like many others in our country thinks that when something like a new virus happens somebody somewhere in Washington or somewhere else in the world can push a magic button and Wala 360 million perfectly made test kits are available instantly distributed throughout 3,700,000 mi.² of the United States. I wish that’s how that would work.

[77T]

Originally Posted by Tavli3

He decided to take action immediately, doc gave him scripts for Zpak and one of the malaria drugs, told him to go home, take as many supplements as you can/have, drink as much fluid as you can and stay in bed. 3 days later he is now recovering little by little.

Sorry that your friend’s partner is potentially Covid-19 victim. Beside the z-pak was the other Rx for chloroquine and/or hydroxychloroquine?




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[Brew]

[deleted]

[Tavli3]

Originally Posted by 77T

Sorry that your friend’s partner is potentially Covid-19 victim. Beside the z-pak was the other Rx for chloroquine and/or hydroxychloroquine?




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

I believe it was in fact the Hydroxychloroquine.
And just want to clarify that I'm not faulting anybody for the lack of tests as no one could have foreseen this but I am questioning the overly strict criteria that is preventing many many people with clear symptoms from getting tested.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Tavli3

I believe it was in fact the Hydroxychloroquine.
And just want to clarify that I'm not faulting anybody for the lack of tests as no one could have foreseen this but I am questioning the overly strict criteria that is preventing many many people with clear symptoms from getting tested.

They don’t have enough tests yet not nationally I mean. However you can bet in the next 2 to 3 weeks they’ll have enough tests that you could be tested four times on your way to the grocery store if you want to.

[Watch This]

Having followed this thread, there is some good information and far more really bad information. All I can say is this... if you have had to apologize for your comments more than once, you likely are not being helpful.

[77T]

Originally Posted by Tavli3

I believe it was in fact the Hydroxychloroquine.

And just want to clarify that I'm not faulting anybody for the lack of tests as no one could have foreseen this but I am questioning the overly strict criteria that is preventing many many people with clear symptoms from getting tested.

Thanks for the answer.

On the testing, I do realize it is troubling. We are accustomed to getting tested for other things swiftly if a doc desires.

I do trust the diagnosticians who write Rx for the z-pak & malarial meds + monitor remotely. For those without morbidity pre-existing conditions that is all they can do methinks.

Since the vast majority of healthy people with immunocompetence will recover, and if there is no contraindication for for the combo mix, then the remote treatment is sound judgement.

If and when a patient presents with the Covid-19 symptoms in serious condition, the ICU is going to max intervention and getting tests done pronto.

The lack of widespread testing does block statisticians plotting the graphs, but one would need to perform the test every week to catch early exposures. That is because one can get infected the day after testing negative for coronavirus.


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[77T]

Originally Posted by Watch This

Having followed this thread, there is some good information and far more really bad information. All I can say is this... if you have had to apologize for your comments more than once, you likely are not being helpful.

I think that has also been true even for officials who issue orders or make forecasts.

In a fast breaking response, the early going is fraught with unknowns and SWAG’s. Anyone pushing rumors or flogging political positions are definitely unhelpful.

As long as people stick to the reliable sources, and don’t try wazoo extrapolations into uncharted territory, they are helpful. Even if that source later modified their data (which has happened).


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[superdog]

This is long. But very much worth the listen.

From a doctor right on the front lines.





weird, I cant appear to post the link.

[SMD]

Originally Posted by Tavli3

I believe it was in fact the Hydroxychloroquine.
And just want to clarify that I'm not faulting anybody for the lack of tests as no one could have foreseen this but I am questioning the overly strict criteria that is preventing many many people with clear symptoms from getting tested.

I think the point about the strict criteria is that they don't want every person who have a fever and a cough coming to the hospital or wherever getting a test when the end result is going to be the same -- go home, self isolate and if you start to have trouble breathing then and only then seek out medical attention. First, if you did not have the virus when you came to the hospital you probably do now -- meaning you are just exposing yourself to a much higher risk going to get tested than if you just stayed home. Two, you are consuming resources that are already over stretched as it is -- taking time of a dr or nurse or whomever that could otherwise be used treating patients that are in critical condition. And third, you come in, you test positive and then you are told to go home and self isolate, so why not just stay home in the first place?

Once they have quicker tests or tests you can take at home they will be dispersed nationwide in an attempt to slowly start opening things up again but right now its triage and testing everyone with a fever and a cough is not a priority.

[Tavli3]

Originally Posted by Patton250

They don’t have enough tests yet not nationally I mean. However you can bet in the next 2 to 3 weeks they’ll have enough tests that you could be tested four times on your way to the grocery store if you want to.

Hope that will be the case! Thats the best way to bend the curve. Find out whose infected and get them isolated as fast as possible. It's the people who show no symptoms that are the scariest, they spread the virus unknowingly.

[Moggo]

Imperial College here in the U.K. have said that early signs are COVID-19 spread appears to be slowing.

Taken from data of hospital admissions not deaths as they lag behind due to incubation period. Not sure what to make of it but some brighter news if true.


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[scarlet knight]

Good posts, Tavli3. Thank you for the information.

[Carry The Interest]

Originally Posted by superdog

This is long. But very much worth the listen.

From a doctor right on the front lines.





weird, I cant appear to post the link.

Thanks for resharing this here. I re-posted it in this thread almost a week ago but I am guessing a lot of people missed it given how quickly this thread gets additions. I’ve been sending this around to relatives and friends the past week as I found it very helpful.

My one concern with his account is his remarks about patients who ultimately require a ventilator. He makes it sound like the usual course is patients that need it are on it for 7ish days then usually recover and go home (barring any serious complications). Some physicians in this thread have shared data/thoughts that don’t paint as rosy of a picture (e.g., survival rates on ventilator patients being in the single digits?)


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[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Watch This

Having followed this thread, there is some good information and far more really bad information. All I can say is this... if you have had to apologize for your comments more than once, you likely are not being helpful.

Well I appreciate you not calling me out personally. I guess I’ll make this my last post on this thread. Take care and be safe.


Glad you’re helpful.

[MichaelFlash]

I think what is happening also is that the news is giving us total numbers of deaths and then highlighting the relatively small percentage of otherwise healthy younger people who have died thereby creating the impression that this virus is killing both young and old and healthy and unhealthy at the same rate. My own experience (anecdotal I know) is as follows: client 68, lupus, history of gout, etc. and recently recovered from pneumonia (about 2 months ago) dies from Covid. 82+ year old attorney from passed away from Covid. 3 people who work in medical field (physical therapy offices) in 30s and 40s tested positive and all three are recovering to almost normal. The latest was sick for 8 days, bad headache, says he is 95% now. So, it seems that younger, healthy = recovery, older, underlying illness = big risk. Pretty much what medical officials have been saying. Meanwhile, read the news and you can see what is being portrayed by many outlets.

Finally, my 13 year old had a fever off and on for 2 days with a headache (though not severe) I wonder if he had the virus? Wife had same symptoms for one day afterwards and now fine as well.

[mgsooner]

We are going to hear every story about the 28 year-old marathon runner or the 35 year-old power lifter who got this virus and became very ill. What we won't hear about are the 100 people under 50 with no underlying health conditions who got it and had flu-like symptoms before recovering. In general these stories about individual cases, whether the result was good or bad, are not helpful. They either generate a false sense of security or unwarranted fear/panic. What we need are a large set of statistics broken down by age range with specifics about the types of symptoms people have experienced. Even that data must be broken down by those without chronic health conditions vs those with chronic health conditions.

[MichaelFlash]

Originally Posted by mgsooner

We are going to hear every story about the 28 year-old marathon runner or the 35 year-old power lifter who got this virus and became very ill. What we won't hear about are the 100 people under 50 with no underlying health conditions who got it and had flu-like symptoms before recovering. In general these stories about individual cases, whether the result was good or bad, are not helpful. They either generate a false sense of security or unwarranted fear/panic. What we need are a large set of statistics broken down by age range with specifics about the types of symptoms people have experienced. Even that data must be broken down by those without chronic health conditions vs those with chronic health conditions.

Agree!

[superdog]

Originally Posted by MichaelFlash

Agree!

me too.

[_speedmaster_]

Originally Posted by mgsooner

We are going to hear every story about the 28 year-old marathon runner or the 35 year-old power lifter who got this virus and became very ill. What we won't hear about are the 100 people under 50 with no underlying health conditions who got it and had flu-like symptoms before recovering. In general these stories about individual cases, whether the result was good or bad, are not helpful. They either generate a false sense of security or unwarranted fear/panic. What we need are a large set of statistics broken down by age range with specifics about the types of symptoms people have experienced. Even that data must be broken down by those without chronic health conditions vs those with chronic health conditions.

+1. Well said.

[DJ39]

Originally Posted by mgsooner

We are going to hear every story about the 28 year-old marathon runner or the 35 year-old power lifter who got this virus and became very ill. What we won't hear about are the 100 people under 50 with no underlying health conditions who got it and had flu-like symptoms before recovering. In general these stories about individual cases, whether the result was good or bad, are not helpful. They either generate a false sense of security or unwarranted fear/panic. What we need are a large set of statistics broken down by age range with specifics about the types of symptoms people have experienced. Even that data must be broken down by those without chronic health conditions vs those with chronic health conditions.

The other cases are the cases of those younger than 50 that where saved by the medical care system doing its job to protect human lives. How many lives will be saved by brave nurses and doctors and go unnoticed because they lived. Remember that


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[mgsooner]

Originally Posted by DJ39

The other cases are the cases of those younger than 50 that where saved by the medical care system doing its job to protect human lives. How many lives will be saved by brave nurses and doctors and go unnoticed because they lived. Remember that

Certainly our wonderful medical professionals are true heroes and I cannot even fathom the sacrifice they're making on a daily basis. However by the end of this there are going to be many, many people infected with this virus who will have limited or no interaction with a healthcare system. The stories about what an ICU doctor or nurse are witnessing right now are horrifying and I think they do have value as they get people to take this seriously, but in the end they will not be representative of what the majority of those infected will experience. The doctor or nurse can only convey what they have witnessed, and it is inherent that they will witness the worst of the worst.