the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by 77T

Thanks Tim and Peter.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Yes. Thank you mods.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by Arcticsub

This virus is unreal.

2009 doesn't come close to it, because a vaccine was pretty much ready when that particular flu season started. I'm worried for Europe and worried for North America. It's paralysing parts of the world as we speak.

Originally Posted by 77T

Not a personal challenge but that is untrue. The H1N1 outbreak began in early 2009 and doses were available by November of that year.

Here’s what the WHO said in May of 2009 while people were just as concerned as they are now.

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/702258


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Serious question. This is from the family of coronavirus, which also includes the common cold. We still don't have a vaccine for the common cold or other coronavirus to my knowledge such as SARS and MERS. This particularly is SARS-Coronavirus2 and the disease is COVID-19. Others such as H1N1 are a type of Influenza virus, which allows for vaccines? I'm very surprised at the lack of commentary on this. I'm hopeful everyone remains safe and healthy.

[GoingPlaces]

I've been checking in and out of this thread, lots of content. Question I have is will the change in seasons make a difference? Spring is around the corner (at least for half the world), does warmer weather matter?

[EndlessEight]

Originally Posted by GoingPlaces

I've been checking in and out of this thread, lots of content. Question I have is will the change in seasons make a difference? Spring is around the corner (at least for half the world), does warmer weather matter?

Read an article on this.

It alleges spreading outdoors would be mitigated by humidity and UV light. Humidity causes the water droplets expelled (i.e. a sneeze) to fall to the ground instead of an outward projection. Abundance of UV light would kill virus upon exposure.


In climate controlled spaces transmission would not be positively impacted it seems.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by 904VT

Serious question. This is from the family of coronavirus, which also includes the common cold. We still don't have a vaccine for the common cold or other coronavirus to my knowledge such as SARS and MERS. This particularly is SARS-Coronavirus2 and the disease is COVID-19. Others such as H1N1 are a type of Influenza virus, which allows for vaccines? I'm very surprised at the lack of commentary on this. I'm hopeful everyone remains safe and healthy.

I believe you are correct as to a lack of safe vaccines for SARS and MERS. Here is the CDC link saying there is no MERS vaccine.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers...revention.html

Not sure what if anything this says about COVID-19.

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Yes. Thank you mods.

Here here!

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

Feel great. Going to the gym getting big. No mask. Been mingling in nightclubs. No mask. Been going to restaurants (in 3 different European cities 7-14 days ago). No mask. Been boarding airplanes and flying across the world (literally). No mask.

I have a different approach to life than you. I don't need to confine myself to my residence nor cancel my plans because there's a virus out there killing old people. As a matter of fact, I welcome it.

Imagine if we lived in fear of getting cancer... Guess the trip to MacD is cancelled (highly processed food => carcinogenic).

Are you serious?

[mountainjogger]

CDC just changed to stronger language encouraging older Americans and at risk persons to stock up on supplies and stay home.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...lications.html

[77T]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

I believe you are correct as to a lack of safe vaccines for SARS and MERS. Here is the CDC link saying there is no MERS vaccine.



https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers...revention.html



Not sure what if anything this says about COVID-19.

True - MERS emerged in 2012 and remains in circulation in camels to this day. Isolation aided its reduced threat level.

SARS literally disappeared without needing to vaccinate the global population. The disease disappeared in 2004, most likely (per researchers) due to isolation and quarantine containment measures, and no cases of SARS have been reported since.

To the question of COVID-19, the researchers may succeed with a vaccine but the “why is it so hard” part is due to mutations.

A good article on the very detailed origin of coronavirus and analysis is here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41579-018-0118-9.pdf

Written in 2018, it doesn’t cover our current novel coronavirus - but it goes into some detail on the difficulties.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

CDC just changed to stronger language encouraging older Americans and at risk persons to stock up on supplies and stay home.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...lications.html

Doesn’t seem like anything unreasonable to me. They should follow those things during flu season as well.

[77T]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

Are you serious?

He’s not able to answer...been banned.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[mgsooner]

NY Gov Cuomo, annoyed: "This is not ebola, this is not SARS, this is not some science fiction movie come to life. The hysteria here is way out of line with the actuality and the facts."

[77T]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

CDC just changed to stronger language encouraging older Americans and at risk persons to stock up on supplies and stay home.



https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...lications.html

It might be hard for the active ones who still work - those with good immune systems may only have mild infections upon exposure.

Immunocompromised people of all ages should be mindful though.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by mgsooner

NY Gov Cuomo, annoyed: "This is not ebola, this is not SARS, this is not some science fiction movie come to life. The hysteria here is way out of line with the actuality and the facts."

The medical officer of health in Canada Dr. Theresa Tam announced today that she advises Canadians against taking cruises due to the virus.

I’ll go with the good doctors advice, hysteria or not.

[77T]

Originally Posted by mgsooner

NY Gov Cuomo, annoyed: "This is not ebola, this is not SARS, this is not some science fiction movie come to life. The hysteria here is way out of line with the actuality and the facts."

He has been pretty aggressive about CDC and Federal agencies over past week. Now he wonders why his constituents are panicky...

This will become an interesting subject for sociologists who want a better understanding of behavioral trends in the face of hyper-communication and competition for resources.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[SearChart]

If only this virus would kill a$$h0les... Jeebus what a bunch of !#@# does this discussion attract.

Stay safe everyone.

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by SearChart

If only this virus would kill a$$h0les

Norovirus will do that

[mountainjogger]

Interesting dispute between the airlines and US gov regarding the government demand for imediate real time information for incoming travelers from outside the US.

Here is a summary from CNN.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/09/polit...ons/index.html

And here is the Federal Register link to the new rule posted in February.

https://www.federalregister.gov/docu...ign-quarantine

As indicated in the Federal Register, the government is utilizing a provision which allows for implementation of a rule without a comment and revision period during a emergency.

I understand both sides of this argument, the Arlines say there are already over burdened and the government says it cannot trace without immediate access to this information.

What is interesting is the background description of what the government describes as an emergency justifying suspension of the comment grace period.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by 77T

It might be hard for the active ones who still work - those with good immune systems may only have mild infections upon exposure.

Immunocompromised people of all ages should be mindful though.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Yup. One of the ones who still work here. And trying to be mindful without stressing out unnecessarily.

Have a community meeting over a land use issue tomorrow night at a local church. Cannot realistically reschedule. And there will be some seriously old people there. So, I think I will spring for the hand wipes and practice fist bumping.

[mountainjogger]

Israel has just announced a 14 day quarantine period for all arrivals. Has any other country done this?

[gmh1013]

In looking at the data from Johns Hopkins website what is I dont understand is why South Korea has such a low death rate compared to Italy...
Some areas seem to fair much better than others.....unless the data is wrong.
S.K. infected 7478 died 53
Italy infected 9172 died 463
France 1209 infected died 19

[alphadweller]

Madrid, Spain. Schools and universities closing for 2 weeks as of Wednesday 11th, got 2 young kids. Luckily I can work from home. I hope they don't quarantine us unless absolutely necessary.

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by gmh1013

In looking at the data from Johns Hopkins website what is I dont understand is why South Korea has such a low death rate compared to Italy...
Some areas seem to fair much better than others.....unless the data is wrong.
S.K. infected 7478 died 53
Italy infected 9172 died 463
France 1209 infected died 19

The logical explanation is that South Korea is picking up a higher proportion of those infected than Italy. The numbers can only ever reflect people who’ve been tested. Those who haven’t are statistically invisible.

[gtnator]

COVID-19 outbreak and Microsoft does the decent thing (now this is progress)

https://www-zdnet-com.cdn.ampproject...s-is-progress/


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[nda]

Originally Posted by GoingPlaces

I've been checking in and out of this thread, lots of content. Question I have is will the change in seasons make a difference? Spring is around the corner (at least for half the world), does warmer weather matter?

Apparently it does - the warmer weather will reduce transmission.

Here in the UK the plan is to try to delay the outbreak by self isolation at any sign of any flu-like symptoms in the hope that the expected major outbreak can be delayed until the summer. That's the very latest government view from today.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by gmh1013

In looking at the data from Johns Hopkins website what is I dont understand is why South Korea has such a low death rate compared to Italy...
Some areas seem to fair much better than others.....unless the data is wrong.
S.K. infected 7478 died 53
Italy infected 9172 died 463
France 1209 infected died 19

It's quite possible the statistics are skewed to some degree. Those that have passed, are more likely to be counted in that figure in all places, while those infected without symptoms may not be reflected in the denominator if not tested, thus potentially artificially inflating mortality. SK has been testing at a very high frequency which increases the denominator. Northern Italy is a tourism hot spot with lots of international travel and industry (including Italian fashion industry). It's quite possible that many were already spreading unknowingly and earlier, thus increasing the numerator without the denominator being accounted for fully. Another factor to consider is cigarette smoking, which seems to influence. Smoking is very common in Chinese and Italian cultures still to this day. Not that isn't elsewhere, but especially prevalent in both of those countries. The lack of transparency in the statistics quoted many places can all cause undue panic imo. Hoping everyone stays safe.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Yup. One of the ones who still work here. And trying to be mindful without stressing out unnecessarily.

Have a community meeting over a land use issue tomorrow night at a local church. Cannot realistically reschedule. And there will be some seriously old people there. So, I think I will spring for the hand wipes and practice fist bumping.

Stay safe

[77T]

I realize we have been focused on the immediate health threats and mitigation. But the flowdowns into other aspects of our life are inevitable.

There is a good chance that jobs and business itself will be different after this current virus situation is resolved. Both business in China and elsewhere - plus our buying behavior may also change.

New, more efficient operations, and perhaps better work practices will be introduced. It will hit certain parts of the economy hard as some enterprises must change or die. But less wasted effort could be an improvement.

Travel expenses could fall. Once we realize you can survive with fewer face-to-face interactions, travel budgets will be permanently trimmed. Remember when video conferencing was first introduced? The promise was enterprises would see travel savings.

The use of automation will be accelerated in the workforce. To augment travel cuts, knowledge workers will be “virtually present” for any meeting/conference/query via integrated calendaring and geo-tagged availability. One advantage is your phone won’t ring when you’re in the bathroom.

Commercial real estate values will fall and WeWork-type firms could fail. Once remote @home business presence becomes the norm, the need for large corporate complexes and on-demand rentals diminishes. This move toward virtual commercial real estate has been underway for a while. But this crisis may yield a tipping point.

HR practices will change. Fewer humans in one confined space means less harassment claims, other human resource issues and investigations. Some HR departments could be trimmed by half or outsourced entirely.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Yes. Teaching critical thinking and quality debate (and music) seems to be undesired in the USA for grades 12 and below.

Love it!

[SMD]

Originally Posted by gmh1013

In looking at the data from Johns Hopkins website what is I dont understand is why South Korea has such a low death rate compared to Italy...
Some areas seem to fair much better than others.....unless the data is wrong.
S.K. infected 7478 died 53
Italy infected 9172 died 463
France 1209 infected died 19

https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/why-ar...-rates-so-low/