the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[Bryant Park]

Originally Posted by 77T

That is a good graphic representation day by day.

One thing to take into account is how testing has ramped up to discover how many are actually infected. I wish they had plotted a line showing the testing numbers.

I believe those 3000 people had been infected over the past 2 weeks or so, but the reports are just now flooding in as test results are processed and returned from the labs.


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I tend to agree that testing and confirmed cases are just catching up to reality. Unfortunately I know several symptomatic people who have been disuaded from being tested given diagnosis for less severe symptoms doesn't have a treatment. Consequently these individuals are "unaccounted" carriers.

In our local communities it does feel per those at the tip of the proverbial spear that the toothpaste is out of the tube. Meaning growth rates similar to those on the graph but with actual numbers well under reported.

[Bryant Park]

Originally Posted by BBL

https://www.rolexforums.com/showpost...postcount=2935

John , and the nagging pit in my stomach is, until we ramp up on testing, that that illustrated graph only shows the 'tested' ones.


Today's email from my health care provider stated that even if I have symptoms, (I am in a risk category, albeit somewhat low) to stay home. Testing is not offered... at the moment, because they probably don't have the kit inventory. (Biggest Trauma hospital connected by number of clinics in my area.)


To wit:
"During this unprecedented time, we want to share with you what we are doing to keep our patients and community safe. We also want to give you the information you need to keep your friends and neighbors healthy.

_ _ _ _ Health has strong protocols in place to stop the spread of COVID-19 and we are following all guidelines set forth by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Weeks ago, we started limiting access to our facility and began screening all patients and visitors.

It’s important to remember that most people with COVID-19 will not need medical attention. You do not need to come to the ER if you are experiencing only mild symptoms. Most patients with mild symptoms who arrive at the ER are being told to return home and self-monitor with self-isolation (without getting a test). If you are worried but don’t have symptoms, please stay home, as we will not be testing everyone who asks.

If you are experiencing mild symptoms such as fever, cough, sore throat or congestion consistent with COVID-19, follow the steps below to help prevent the disease from spreading.

Stay home: People who are mildly ill with COVID-19 are able to isolate at home during their illness.
Avoid public areas: Do not go to work, school, or public areas.
Avoid public transportation: Avoid using public transportation, ride-sharing or taxis.
Cover: Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue when you cough or sneeze.
Dispose: Throw used tissues in a lined trash can.
Wash hands: Consistently wash your hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.
Do not share: You should not share dishes, drinking glasses, cups, eating utensils, towels or bedding with other people or pets in your home.

Call 911 if you have a medical emergency.

We value each and every one of our patients and are here every step of the way to ensure your health and safety.

Sorry our posts crossed but you more effectively displayed my concern. Be well!

[77T]

Originally Posted by Bryant Park

Unfortunately I know several symptomatic people who have been disuaded from being tested given diagnosis for less severe symptoms doesn't have a treatment. Consequently these individuals are "unaccounted" carriers.

That is a good point because the test screening guidelines are being separated by severity.

Therefore the denominator will be much lower in the fraction:
d/i=mr

Where d= deaths; i= infected; mr= mortality rate.
This will overstate the true mortality rate because deaths are by and large more accurately reported in US.




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[lovetherolex]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

Reinfection is possible and can occur with any infectious agent. Sometimes it’s caused by an inadequate immune response to the first infection. Other times, it’s cause by a rapid mutation of the infectious agent. It remains to be seen what the cause(s) of reinfection are associated with the Coronavirus. A high reinfection rate would obviously be bad for the overall course of the pandemic.

So the common line that, once you catch a given strain of any virus and then fight it off, that you then have antibodies built up from the war in your body that give you that immunity, that line is not strictly the case? In other words every given virus has a reinfection rate, but it's simply a matter of what that rate is to decide if it's a significant factor?

[Bryant Park]

Originally Posted by 77T

That is a good point because the test screening guidelines are being separated by severity.

Therefore the denominator will be much lower in the fraction:
d/ i = mr Where d= deaths; i= infected; r= mortality rate.
This will overstate the true mortality rate because deaths are by and large more accurately reported in US.




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Agreed in terms of the near term math. Unfortunately the experience of the Italian health scare system suggests mortality rate multiplies once scarce medical resources become unavailable. I am hardly expert to speculate if and at what point we run out of beds, non impacted health care workers, ventilators etc but this will unfortunately drag mortality higher. Consequently you will only get a true read retrospectively once contextualized. Stated differently first very sick person into an ER has a better chance of survival then a slightly less ill person that shows up after hundreds of others.

[12Relojes]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Hear Hear!!!!! Thank you Joey, I expressed this opinion and was assaulted by a Doctor for having an uninformed and ridiculous view; it is a prayer and a hope that the hundreds of thousands that COULD die from this will not. Thank you for your opinion and hope, as an experienced Doctor.

PS, now go get to work on my room.

Assaulted?
With all due respect to Joey's gut, we should actually lean on the numbers. Dr. Birx said 11% of tests are coming back positive. Granted there's a lead time bias, but there's also inadequate testing. Hospitalization rates are running around 16% of those infected, with a 2% mortality rate. These numbers can only be described as catastrophic. For my community that represents more than 50 thousand hospitalizations, we have less than 100 ICU beds and 4000 beds in total. Only if prediction models are completely wrong (and initial data doesn't suggest they are), will the medical system not be overwhelmed.

According to a Presidential tweet, the Chinese were throwing up hospitals in days to meet needs. We have witnessed the harrowing Italian experience. And yet Governors are being told to secure their own ventilators, Army Corps of Engineers has not been called to the ready, we still don't have adequate testing, not enough PPE, and a mask shortage. I'm not exactly reassured by our readiness.

As far as your faith that as a nation we will adopt behaviors to stem this tide, our Florida beaches and hotels have been packed with kids that we will now scatter to the nation. Another member has posted current airline flight patterns that make one question if containment is a national goal at all.

Stay home. Avoid contact with others. If you feel sick assume you're shedding corona. Listen to numbers, that feeling in your gut is likely gas.

[lovetherolex]

Originally Posted by dimag333

This thread kept me ahead of the “curve” really helped me prepare my business for the shut down weeks before it was mentioned

Originally Posted by chappuy1750

Truth brother.

When I hear something like this is makes me ever so happy that we rectified this thread. Love to hear it. That's what people come here for

Originally Posted by Bryant Park

In NYC and the surrounding areas this is no longer a scare, a theoretical discussion, or a hassle. It is now a full blown life and death health crisis.

A 21 year old young man we know well from NJ is hospitalized, 2 NYC colleagues 1 confirmed the other waiting test results (2 others in their building but different employer confirmed). A friend in UK whose mom, dad and brother all have it (dad 82 in bad shape), former colleagues 46 year old husband in a London hospital waiting "official" notice but was told you wouldn't have been tested unless you have it.

All in the last 36 hours.

For the those who have been after the "But do you, personally, know anyone with the virus?"...this is so difficult to hear when it hasn't been taken seriously in so many places. It's dreadful to think of what's coming.

[77T]

Originally Posted by Bryant Park

Agreed in terms of the near term math. Unfortunately the experience of the Italian health scare system suggests mortality rate multiplies once scarce medical resources become unavailable. I am hardly expert to speculate if and at what point we run out of beds, non impacted health care workers, ventilators etc but this will unfortunately drag mortality higher.

Right - the near term math is only useful to know the base number from which the actual growth rate can be plotted. Then health planners can marshal resources where the greatest needs will be expected.


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[RyanO]

Originally Posted by 77T

That is a good graphic representation day by day.

One thing to take into account is how testing has ramped up to discover how many are actually infected. I wish they had plotted a line showing the testing numbers.

I believe those 3000 people had been infected over the past 2 weeks or so, but the reports are just now flooding in as test results are processed and returned from the labs.


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This is a very good point. As testing is finally talked up, cases are going to surge by default.


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[12Relojes]

Originally Posted by RyanO

This is a very good point. As testing is finally talked up, cases are going to surge by default.


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Absolutely correct. On the other hand, if we trust reporting from France, Spain and Italy more than China, then we can expect our mortality rate to climb to 4-5% like they're reporting. Deaths doubled in US in one day: 100 yesterday, >200 now.

[Seibei]

Given the current situation, how many hospitals are being built in the USA? Apparently the Chinese built 2 in 10 days so there is still time.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by Seibei

Given the current situation, how many hospitals are being built in the USA? Apparently the Chinese built 2 in 10 days so there is still time.

Other than setting up M.A.SH units in a field somewhere, there is 0.0% of the US "building" 2 hospitals in 10 days.

I would love to be wrong on that, but I just can't see that happening.

The decision of who would regulate the meeting regarding the administration of the environmental impact study would take a month for just one of them...

[CRM114]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

I suppose the point is, the wearing of masks is unlikely to make much difference to an individual or a population so it’s probably not worth worrying too much about.

No offense, but this is exactly the type of mindset that needs to change. A helmet doesn't necessarily make any difference to a soldier if a large enough explosive detonates under his vehicle, but the soldier still wears the helmet.

This virus is has asymptomatic transmission. A mask on 1 person acts as a barrier for droplets may expel onto another. A 2nd mask on another person creates a 2nd barrier. 2 barriers is better than 1, 1 barrier is better than none. No barriers and you're just trusting to luck or some debatable theory.

Everyone wearing masks creates multiple barriers. It also creates a barrier against your own fingers touching your own face. It's also a constant reminder not to do so, to remain vigilant.

Masks also create a general awareness of the situation, and helps develop the collective mindset that its important everyone is doing their part.

During this, would you rather be among a populace that is clearly vigilant and aware and taking every precaution, or would you rather be among those who look for reasons why NOT to do something?

[fmc000]

Originally Posted by Patton250

So the rest of the world is lying? I can understand if you believe China and Iran are lying but you think everyone else is also?

The post I quoted was specifically about China.

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[fmc000]

Originally Posted by Patton250

We don’t have to have any names listed. This is an unprecedented thing. I think leadership around the world is doing fine except for maybe China. And my only complaint about them is we’re fairly confident that they were lying initially about what was happening. There have been some detailed articles on that and if you were interested I will find them for you.



A population wouldn’t be normal if they didn’t complain about their leaders. One side always blames the other. It’s mostly political anyway. Are you going to complain about one particular leader? Why? That leader he or she has a legion of other people beneath them making decisions and doing the best they can. This isn’t like some head coach calling the wrong play with three seconds left of the game. This is an evolving thing. Extremely fluid. It changes day after day. The best people in the world are working on this. If it makes you feel better to blame an individual then go ahead. Chances are you probably didn’t like that individual long before this virus came along.

Excellent.

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[CRM114]

People want to complain about leaders and if they did this or that.

Meanwhile, they themselves are going to pubs, touching their faces, kissing and hugging their friends and family. Having extended family dinners. Taking unnecessary trips in public. Hitting the beach. Not wearing/Debating the use of face masks because it's not their "culture" to do so. Doing the minimum required, balancing the inconveniences against the lifestyle to determine whether they're worth doing or not.

Then they wonder why the virus hits fertile ground when it shows up instead of a barren field that could limit it's spread....why, why didn't the leaders do something.

It's the Information Age for the last 25+ years and this thing has been reported-on and discussed for months.

A week ago NYC had fewer cases than HK (7.5 million, which shares a border with China and far more congested living and commuting conditions than NYC, and had a 2-month head start on infections) and now has about 165 cases with 4 deaths. HK Restaurants and bars and shops are still open and I'll be venturing out for some shopping in awhile with vigilance but no fear because I'll be among a populace where everyone is highly aware how it can be spread and behaving accordingly.. in a way to minimize it all the time. Almost everyone will be wearing masks, using hand sanitizer, and I'll see masked-up, gloved workers sanitizing handrails, knobs, grocery cart handles etc etc. Almost nobody will be hugging or kissing or sneezing and coughing. If they were doing the latter, they won't be out.

There will be an additional 20,000 people not out there because that's the number currently home quarantined in HK, with electronic ankle bracelets and wristbands that will alert the authorities if they go outside their homes for 2 weeks after, even with no symptoms, being exposed to someone or arriving from anywhere else in the world besides Macau or Taiwan. Those don't include those in medical quarantine who definitely have contracted the virus or tried to enter with the virus.

7 days later, today, NYC is reporting 3,600 cases and a jump of 1,600 cases in 1 day.

There's really no debate as to what tactically works in order to create the mostly-barren ground for the strategy to be successful, but it requires almost everyone to get on the same page and change behavior, in particular hygiene and how and how much they interact with one another.

Dont change behavior as preventative measure, or change them too little, then the real problem does become how many ventilators can be manufactured, hospital ships activated, and ethical questions answered re triage etc.

[gmh1013]

Stop wearing rings and watches during outbreak....

https://www.insider.com/coronavirus-...mno2bLHTybVJB0

[daveathall]

Originally Posted by gmh1013

Stop wearing rings and watches during outbreak....

https://www.insider.com/coronavirus-...mno2bLHTybVJB0

I have stopped this, it is difficult to properly wash ones hands. Great point though.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Seibei

Given the current situation, how many hospitals are being built in the USA? Apparently the Chinese built 2 in 10 days so there is still time.

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Other than setting up M.A.SH units in a field somewhere, there is 0.0% of the US "building" 2 hospitals in 10 days.

I would love to be wrong on that, but I just can't see that happening.

The decision of who would regulate the meeting regarding the administration of the environmental impact study would take a month for just one of them...

At this point it’s time to commandeer some office buildings in each city.

Create hospitals that way.

Then ask for volunteers to help staff them. Yes, we would mostly be uneducated. But with leadership and guidance running the uneducated like myself, it would be better than nothing.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by lovetherolex

You're kidding right. That's not only actually antagonistic towards a country (assume you've looked that up by now) while in the depths their struggle, but also factually incorrect if you cared to look. And haven't walked that back either. Self awareness isn't exactly present in spades here.



That's not factual about the NYT. If you want to know about the mindset of the person who told you that, ask him about the news sources he values. See if you even receive an answer. That will give you the context for his statement. But don't take it at face value without that context lest you be misled



So it's fine then? I wonder if you would be saying the same thing if you were in that latter group. How about looking beyond economic factors? It's humans we're dealing with here, it's that kind of bean counter thinking that leads to not fixing defects in vehicles because it will cost less to defend the lawsuits. Very simple to make calls like that when you remove the human element but utterly misdirected. There are people, including members here, in that first group whose value is far greater than what they do for the economy. The suggestion that human life is expendable has no place in the conversation.





Another twilight zone comment...don't know how what he's pointing out is possibly "offensive". I'm going to start gifting dictionaries Truly surprised that you don't think what he's referring to is what's actually offensive.

Hard to believe some of the things I'm seeing here. Including the inconsistencies displayed by the loudest voices, usually with the least to say. Talk about not helpful. Somehow it's the same guys who are oversensitive that are constantly going against the grain and actually offending people. It's one thing to be what you are, it's another thing to pretend you're not. I can't take many of you guys seriously anymore, too much doesn't add up.



It sounds so ridiculous I can't take it seriously. As shocked as you are with the callousness of the comments you are referring to. A few of the members here have tunnel and/or selective vision.

Oh no. Your not antagonistic.

Instead of having a discussion and maybe disputing something, you are actually picking and choosing comments and discussions to specifically inflame. And you are extremely condescending while you do it.

You talk about getting the thread back on track, but if anything you are exacerbating the exact problem you are railing against.

Clearly you have an ax to grind. That’s too bad. It’s a serious topic.

For me, I’m actually learning a lot here. And have admitted at points where I have been wrong. I wonder if you can do the same.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by lovetherolex

You're kidding right. That's not only actually antagonistic towards a country (assume you've looked that up by now) while in the depths their struggle, but also factually incorrect if you cared to look. And haven't walked that back either. Self awareness isn't exactly present in spades here.



That's not factual about the NYT. If you want to know about the mindset of the person who told you that, ask him about the news sources he values. See if you even receive an answer. That will give you the context for his statement. But don't take it at face value without that context lest you be misled



So it's fine then? I wonder if you would be saying the same thing if you were in that latter group. How about looking beyond economic factors? It's humans we're dealing with here, it's that kind of bean counter thinking that leads to not fixing defects in vehicles because it will cost less to defend the lawsuits. Very simple to make calls like that when you remove the human element but utterly misdirected. There are people, including members here, in that first group whose value is far greater than what they do for the economy. The suggestion that human life is expendable has no place in the conversation.





Another twilight zone comment...don't know how what he's pointing out is possibly "offensive". I'm going to start gifting dictionaries Truly surprised that you don't think what he's referring to is what's actually offensive.

Hard to believe some of the things I'm seeing here. Including the inconsistencies displayed by the loudest voices, usually with the least to say. Talk about not helpful. Somehow it's the same guys who are oversensitive that are constantly going against the grain and actually offending people. It's one thing to be what you are, it's another thing to pretend you're not. I can't take many of you guys seriously anymore, too much doesn't add up.



It sounds so ridiculous I can't take it seriously. As shocked as you are with the callousness of the comments you are referring to. A few of the members here have tunnel and/or selective vision.

I’m confused why the moderators continue to let you insult and put people down that don’t have the same political views you have. Elitist snobby remarks don’t make a person right they just make them not very nice.

[Art 1]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I’m confused why the moderators continue to let you insult and put people down that don’t have the same political views you have. Elitist snobby remarks don’t make a person right they just make them not very nice.

I’ve wondered the same.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by CRM114

There's really no debate as to what tactically works in order to create the mostly-barren ground for the strategy to be successful, but it requires almost everyone to get on the same page and change behavior, in particular hygiene and how and how much they interact with one another.

In my humble opinion this is the crux of the matter. Only way to flatten the curve.

Stay safe.

[JParm]

Edited - wrong thread.

[joeychitwood]

I think this bears repeating. From Infectious Disease 101 in med school. A pandemic ends when it runs out of victims. Infectious diseases like the Coronavirus spread exponentially as more and more people are infected and become contagious. As people develop immunity after surviving infection, receive effective antivirals, receive a vaccine, or avoid infection through distancing, isolation or quarantine, the number of possible victims decreases until the pandemic can no longer sustain itself. That’s it. No other options.

[77T]

Sometimes a topic on TRF becomes a magnet for unbalanced or antisocial members to vent. Blaming, shaming or targeting other members is a modus operandi. I get it, they are troll-like.

But this may be the only outlet for their pent-up stress and they act out in tantrum like posts. If that’s therapeutic, so be it. TRF standards are not going to control them. Especially if they are under the influence of alcohol or their meds are becoming ineffective due to the stress.

The Mods are already busy with the regular traffic of scammers, spammers and unacceptable behavior on the forum. This is why some threads are closed due to an inordinate volume of controversy in a single topic.

I do believe this topic has served the members well. But I see it is becoming increasingly high maintenance for the Mods and more difficult than the value it offers.

I’m not pointing at anyone so please don’t take it personally. It is a group dynamic that oftentimes makes the juice not worth the squeeze.

I wouldn’t be surprised if it is closed soon.


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[superdog]

Originally Posted by 77T

Sometimes a topic on TRF becomes a magnet for unbalanced or antisocial members to vent. Blaming, shaming or targeting other members is a modus operandi. I get it, they are troll-like.

But this may the only outlet for their pent-up stress and they act out in tantrum like posts. If that’s therapeutic, so be it. TRF standards are not going to control them. Especially if they are under the influence of alcohol or their meds are becoming ineffective due to the stress.

The Mods are already busy with the regular traffic of scammers, spammers and unacceptable behavior on the forum. This is why some threads are closed due to an inordinate volume of controversy in a single topic.

I do believe this topic has served the members well. But I see it is becoming increasingly high maintenance for the Mods and more difficult than the value it offers.

I’m not pointing at anyone so please don’t take it personally. It is a group dynamic that oftentimes makes the juice not worth the squeeze.

I wouldn’t be surprised if it is closed soon.


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I hope not.

Nothing wrong with discussion.

No reason to attack people with dissenting viewpoints.

I hope we can all learn from this and simply move on.

[Moggo]

This thread has become no better than the public fighting over toilet paper at the supermarkets.

So much bickering it’s unbelievable.


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[Patton250]

Originally Posted by 77T

Sometimes a topic on TRF becomes a magnet for unbalanced or antisocial members to vent. Blaming, shaming or targeting other members is a modus operandi. I get it, they are troll-like.

But this may the only outlet for their pent-up stress and they act out in tantrum like posts. If that’s therapeutic, so be it. TRF standards are not going to control them. Especially if they are under the influence of alcohol or their meds are becoming ineffective due to the stress.

The Mods are already busy with the regular traffic of scammers, spammers and unacceptable behavior on the forum. This is why some threads are closed due to an inordinate volume of controversy in a single topic.

I do believe this topic has served the members well. But I see it is becoming increasingly high maintenance for the Mods and more difficult than the value it offers.

I’m not pointing at anyone so please don’t take it personally. It is a group dynamic that oftentimes makes the juice not worth the squeeze.

I wouldn’t be surprised if it is closed soon.


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Originally Posted by superdog

I hope not.

Nothing wrong with discussion.

No reason to attack people with dissenting viewpoints.

I hope we can all learn from this and simply move on.

I completely agree Seth. There’s no need to close the thread Paul. It seems only a couple people are continuously being antagonistic towards others that have a different point of view. I don’t see how alcohol is an excuse but I suppose stress could be a temporary acceptable reason for it. Either way most people’s posts have been fine and there are quite a few very helpful posts. I hope the thread stays open.

[12Relojes]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I’m confused why the moderators continue to let you insult and put people down that don’t have the same political views you have. Elitist snobby remarks don’t make a person right they just make them not very nice.

My advice for all of us.

1. How about no political views?
2. Keep in mind, there's such a thing as right and wrong. There are no reasons to be unkind, but this is a time when misinformation is harmful. Misinformation needs to be corrected. This is not a time when we can afford ignorance to be defended with "well that's my opinion", "my gut", "it's a hoax", "we have it under control".
3. Being civil to each other is how we survive this. All this anxiety we're carrying needs to vent and if we're not careful we can burn that energy in fits of meanness. That in turn takes focus and when we lose focus people get sick and die.
4. It's critical not be stupid. If someone believes your gut, non-factual opinion, or flat-out misinformation, people get sick and die. Don't turn a blunt correction into a referendum on etiquette.