Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by soicanbefree

All the boxes and extra gear being set aside and sold for $200 is bog standard at this point. Such a stupid practice but there really are piles of them at the AD and they are mostly interchangeable.

Card/no card is the heart of the issue.

Understood. Also see "card available august 8" for example. AD holding back? Time to print a new one overseas?

[soicanbefree]

Originally Posted by EEpro

Understood. Also see "card available august 8" for example. AD holding back? Time to print a new one overseas?

AD or other 3rd party holding back.

If you see the way some of these things are traded.

A guy gets a sales lead then gets quotes from 3-4 others (who knows if they even have the watch) and then wires bounce around and it finally ends up with the customer.

AD -> Out the backdoor to friend/flipper Num 1 -> Num 2 buys and holds. -> Num 3 gets an order and sources it from Num 2 -> Finally in a customers hands.

I would not be surprised if 3-4 parties including the AD touch an end users watch before it finally gets there sometimes. (not all the time). Which now you can see why they get moved around just pouch+watc+card. Takes up way less space and less shipping.

[28mm]

Originally Posted by EEpro

Totally suspect. I saw one guy ask a seller in there why no box and he said I bought it that way. I wonder how much of this stuff is not up and up.

It's totally wild..I can understand for older and or discontinued models but it's one after another, hot current models, non stop watches with "only 'missing two links'..

And it's not once in awhile it's 5-10 a day it seems... who doesn't have box and papers on a new Daytona?

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by soicanbefree

AD or other 3rd party holding back.

If you see the way some of these things are traded.

A guy gets a sales lead then gets quotes from 3-4 others (who knows if they even have the watch) and then wires bounce around and it finally ends up with the customer.

AD -> Out the backdoor to friend/flipper Num 1 -> Num 2 buys and holds. -> Num 3 gets an order and sources it from Num 2 -> Finally in a customers hands.

I would not be surprised if 3-4 parties including the AD touch an end users watch before it finally gets there sometimes. (not all the time). Which now you can see why they get moved around just pouch+watc+card. Takes up way less space and less shipping.

Makes sense

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by soicanbefree

One more thought I am now 100% convinced that to mark the bottom you will have to see a top Grey dealer get liquidated.

In that case, the biggest issue would be contamination. Buyers not trusting suppliers. Suppliers not trusting buyers.

Depending of the grey, if he does a lot of b2b, it could propagate to its "partners" losing money and break the trust between greys.

I am a little surprised how people blindly trust companies and consigning their watches.
In some countries, in case of bankruptcy, it is a nightmare and looong to prove that you own something which is seized in the bankruptcy process.

[Mifune]

Bottoms are marked by flushes... I haven't seen that as yet. If the financial markets continue with this upward or sideways trend, these Grey's are going to sneak by without incident. Seeing as there are nearly 800 BLROs on chrono and secondary market pricing seems to have stabilized, we will have to see which way these contrary patterns will take us. I am a buyer right now, but I am waiting to deploy any capital until I am sure.

[southtexas]

Originally Posted by VegasBaby

Most of the newer members, complaining about the crazy prices of the past two years and whining about how they can’t afford to buy Rolex are now not interested as prices are dropping. Truly, they had no interest in these watches other than for the potential profit they they missed out on by flipping. They’re not interested in buying a Daytona $50,000 nor at $25,000.

Count me in that last group. I’d want to buy one at about $14,500 or whatever is retail now.


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[bgmv]

Originally Posted by southtexas

Count me in that last group. I’d want to buy one at about $14,500 or whatever is retail now.


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$14,550

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[28mm]

Originally Posted by bgmv

$14,550

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plus or including tax?

[eijiboy]

New panda at 32k.

[2loaded]

Seems a lot of buyers coming out of a bad marriage (market) and willing to settle for the next best thing?
Retail or below. That's it.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by Mifune

Bottoms are marked by flushes... I haven't seen that as yet. If the financial markets continue with this upward or sideways trend, these Grey's are going to sneak by without incident. Seeing as there are nearly 800 BLROs on chrono and secondary market pricing seems to have stabilized, we will have to see which way these contrary patterns will take us. I am a buyer right now, but I am waiting to deploy any capital until I am sure.

What indication do you have that secondary markets have stabilized? I am seeing recent lows on popular references by the week, even by the day in many cases

[Bstewart]

Watching the "view edit history" on the prices in Moda is fascinating.

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

The most important quote to remember is when he speaks about dealer groups.

https://youtu.be/iPPYoIS3qkA?t=44

And finally *the* reality check: https://youtu.be/iPPYoIS3qkA?t=171

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by QuelleHeureEstIl

The most important quote to remember is when he speaks about dealer groups.

https://youtu.be/iPPYoIS3qkA?t=44

And finally: https://youtu.be/iPPYoIS3qkA?t=171

And what is that? You’d be saving us some time!

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

And what is that? You’d be saving us some time!

No time to do a transcript. And if I quote, some will fire and say I do not understand and push rumors.

To save time: I put links which starts directly at the interesting part to watch and it lasts 1 min.

[soicanbefree]

Originally Posted by QuelleHeureEstIl

No time to do a transcript. And if I quote, some will fire and say I do not understand and push rumors.

To save time: I put links directly to the part to watch and it lasts 1 min.

He is talking about how we don't want to let what's happening in the market out of the bag.

Can't have the retail schmucks figuring out that things have mega tanked.

(in so many words)

Second takeaway is he thinks he can sell that Plat Daytona for 140?

Seems tough. I also remember when they were 50K.

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by soicanbefree

He is talking about how we don't want to let what's happening in the market out of the bag.

Can't have the retail schmucks figuring out that things have mega tanked.

(in so many words)

Second takeaway is he thinks he can sell that Plat Daytona for 140?

Seems tough. I also remember when they were 50K.

Also:
- dealer group prices are the prices that the market will push in the future...
- take a lose now, because end of the year may not be rosy as expected by some
- covid era was an anomaly in the watch industry
- do not expect crazy times again in a loooong time

[HAL330]

The sell, cut your loss, is what's fueling this spike down... it will stabilize at market prices soon... and market prices ARE NOT going to be AD prices on "hot items" sadly for all of us.

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by HAL330

The sell, cut your loss, is what's fueling this spike down...

You are right.

There is an influx of items on the market. There is also a drop of demand.

I think that "sell and cut your loss" is the consequence of something else not the cause.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_whys

Real questions to ask would be: why are people selling? Why are people not buying? Why buyers shrunk massively?

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by QuelleHeureEstIl

Real questions to ask would be: why are people selling? Why are people not buying? Why buyers shrunk massively?

why are people selling?
A) Because they bought to make money, and maximising profits

Why are people not buying?
A) Because values are not going up; and/or
Recession is coming and people have other priorities

Why buyers shrunk massively?
A) see above; and/or
Super-trendy people getting bored and looking for something new / novel

[eijiboy]

Nib rg olive dial 55k


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[28mm]

Originally Posted by eijiboy

Nib rg olive dial 55k


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Have you sold any of your blessed collection>?

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by eijiboy

Nib rg olive dial 55k

I had not checked C24 for a long time. Gosh... 724 DD40 in Rose Gold with prices totally soo Februarish... Half in the US... It will hurt a lot of people... :(

[eijiboy]

Originally Posted by 28mm

Have you sold any of your blessed collection>?

Only a handful but that was last march or april

[eijiboy]

Originally Posted by QuelleHeureEstIl

I had not checked C24 for a long time. Gosh... 724 DD40 in Rose Gold with prices totally soo Februarish... Half in the US... It will hurt a lot of people... :(

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[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by eijiboy

Meanwhile... 1USD = 0.95CHF

[HAL330]

Originally Posted by QuelleHeureEstIl

I had not checked C24 for a long time. Gosh... 724 DD40 in Rose Gold with prices totally soo Februarish... Half in the US... It will hurt a lot of people... :(

I feel like a lot of dealers are listing watches that they don't possess but can get... so I wonder how many actual watches are out there.

[bgmv]

Originally Posted by 28mm

plus or including tax?

$14,550 + tax

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[eijiboy]

Originally Posted by HAL330

I feel like a lot of dealers are listing watches that they don't possess but can get... so I wonder how many actual watches are out there.

I heard this a lot happening on chrono.