Strange happenings in Hong Kong - grey market dealers

[youthagainsttt]

As people on this forum may know I’m obsessed with watches, even when I’ve just bought one I’d still go out the next day to try on others just for the heck of it.

Been eyeing up some Daydates in the past few days and just asked the dealer how much I’d get if I part exchanged my gold 15500 which is new, even though I’ve got no intention of flipping it but just curious about the p-ex value. Well I was surprised when the 1st dealer said he wouldn’t take it in.

So I went to another dealer in a different area of HK, he also said the same thing. And this happened another 2 more times. Why could this be? Is it because the value of AP is quite volatile recently & they’ve been burnt? But then again all watches have gone down a bit recently. The 2nd shop also mentioned they only trade Rolex & have stopped trading any other brand.

Anyone have any ideas on this?

[dmash]

It’s the market. Some greys are refusing Subs and GMTs even at retail, as they’re already so saturated. This isn’t an opinion, there’s dealers who have posted videos saying such and other firsthand experiences such as yourself.

A bit of ‘writing on the wall’ if you will……kind of hard to turn a blind eye at this point. But this shouldn’t even matter to anybody who was truly into horology from the get go. I simply track pricing as a means of seeing how much longer I might have to wait for my allocations.

I believe in the coming months we’ll see who *truly* liked these watches. I have a feeling a lot of these new guys who were quote on quote 'obesessed with watches and here for the long term', will have a sudden change of heart if their money spent turns negative. A lot of people were disillusioned into loving something simply because it was an immediate profit maker, not for what is actually was. Time will tell!

[Watchwoody]

Originally Posted by dmash

It’s the market. Some greys are refusing Subs and GMTs even at retail, as they’re already so saturated. This isn’t an opinion, there’s dealers who have posted videos saying such and other firsthand experiences such as yourself.

A bit of ‘writing on the wall’ if you will……kind of hard to turn a blind eye at this point. But this shouldn’t even matter to anybody who was truly into horology from the get go. I simply track pricing as a means of seeing how much longer I might have to wait for my allocations.

I believe in the coming months we’ll see who *truly* liked these watches. I have a feeling a lot of these new guys who were quote on quote 'obesessed with watches and here for the long term', will have a sudden change of heart if their money spent turns negative. A lot of people were disillusioned into loving something simply because it was an immediate profit maker, not for what is actually was. Time will tell!

This is spot on.

[TunaTuna]

Originally Posted by youthagainsttt

As people on this forum may know I’m obsessed with watches, even when I’ve just bought one I’d still go out the next day to try on others just for the heck of it.

Been eyeing up some Daydates in the past few days and just asked the dealer how much I’d get if I part exchanged my gold 15500 which is new, even though I’ve got no intention of flipping it but just curious about the p-ex value. Well I was surprised when the 1st dealer said he wouldn’t take it in.

So I went to another dealer in a different area of HK, he also said the same thing. And this happened another 2 more times. Why could this be? Is it because the value of AP is quite volatile recently & they’ve been burnt? But then again all watches have gone down a bit recently. The 2nd shop also mentioned they only trade Rolex & have stopped trading any other brand.

Anyone have any ideas on this?

Better hope the HK boutique doesn't figure out who you are, or that will be your last AP to flip

[macrowatch]

Rolex is king like USD. You would think HKD or GBP or BTH should be fine in most of the world, but sometimes you need dollars.

Also, I think sometimes even if a piece is desirable, it’s just not liquid enough to know what it’s worth. Try to value a AP PQ for example, no data points. Even Platona changed hands often enough each week to mark the inventory.

[sfbatman007]

Originally Posted by dmash

It’s the market. Some greys are refusing Subs and GMTs even at retail, as they’re already so saturated. This isn’t an opinion, there’s dealers who have posted videos saying such and other firsthand experiences such as yourself.

A bit of ‘writing on the wall’ if you will……kind of hard to turn a blind eye at this point. But this shouldn’t even matter to anybody who was truly into horology from the get go. I simply track pricing as a means of seeing how much longer I might have to wait for my allocations.

I believe in the coming months we’ll see who *truly* liked these watches. I have a feeling a lot of these new guys who were quote on quote 'obesessed with watches and here for the long term', will have a sudden change of heart if their money spent turns negative. A lot of people were disillusioned into loving something simply because it was an immediate profit maker, not for what is actually was. Time will tell!

I can't wait for this moment. Tired of being treated like a peasant by these ADs.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

[conkers]

I think it is a balance sheet issue for most grey dealers. Putting 15k of cash into a sports Rolex is much easier and less risky than putting say 80k of balance sheet into a gold 15500 which might take a while to shift. Many grey dealers have far too much stock, a good portion of which may be underwater already and purchased on leverage. It is a very difficult time for these guys and many won’t make it.

[capjand1]

All grey dealers rather buy seven 15-20k SS Rolex watches than take on one 100k precious metal AP.

[thekman]

This has been ongoing for months now, OP. I had tried to sell a couple of what are considered to be "hot watches" to some of the bigger greys in the US. Most of them refused to even make a bid. Even though they were advertising the same watches for 2-3xMSRP on their websites. I ended up selling privately.

[MP777]

Good news for people buying to own and not to flip

[HMHM]

Most of the greys are so filled with stock that it’s not surprising they no longer want to buy. Even worse is that most of their stock are bought at the peak of the market. It’s hard to have any empathy for them during this sluggish period as they were not the most transparent/honest people in business. Recently a member posted here that he tried to trade a 50th anniversary 15550 for a 116500LN white dial and the highest offer he got was a straight trade with no cash top up. They reap what they sow if they crash and burn!

[cascavel]

Dealers either cannot get financing, they've maxed out their financing or interest rates are going up so much that they can't hang on to inventory due to increased financing costs.

[LUDA]

Originally Posted by dmash

It’s the market. Some greys are refusing Subs and GMTs even at retail, as they’re already so saturated. This isn’t an opinion, there’s dealers who have posted videos saying such and other firsthand experiences such as yourself.

A bit of ‘writing on the wall’ if you will……kind of hard to turn a blind eye at this point. But this shouldn’t even matter to anybody who was truly into horology from the get go. I simply track pricing as a means of seeing how much longer I might have to wait for my allocations.

I believe in the coming months we’ll see who *truly* liked these watches. I have a feeling a lot of these new guys who were quote on quote 'obesessed with watches and here for the long term', will have a sudden change of heart if their money spent turns negative. A lot of people were disillusioned into loving something simply because it was an immediate profit maker, not for what is actually was. Time will tell!

Exactly how I see it.

When I saw the 15500 go from 40 to 80K I got quite scared until I got mine, I was not sure how long I would have to wait seing there was even more demand... once I got it all good, it can drop to retail now, I am good.

[1William]

Interesting speculation on this thread and most is probably true to a certain extent. So many unknow factors. The market has shifted but trying to make since out of it is difficult.

[Champagnepapi]

Originally Posted by youthagainsttt

As people on this forum may know I’m obsessed with watches, even when I’ve just bought one I’d still go out the next day to try on others just for the heck of it.

Been eyeing up some Daydates in the past few days and just asked the dealer how much I’d get if I part exchanged my gold 15500 which is new, even though I’ve got no intention of flipping it but just curious about the p-ex value. Well I was surprised when the 1st dealer said he wouldn’t take it in.

So I went to another dealer in a different area of HK, he also said the same thing. And this happened another 2 more times. Why could this be? Is it because the value of AP is quite volatile recently & they’ve been burnt? But then again all watches have gone down a bit recently. The 2nd shop also mentioned they only trade Rolex & have stopped trading any other brand.

Anyone have any ideas on this?

So just clarify- you are obsessed with watches or with the market value?… you have no intentions of flipping what u have… and you tried the pieces you were interested in on. Yet just because he wouldn’t take yours in or give you an estimate on it you went to 3 other dealers to check if they would? Lol that sounds as believable as the small margins the greys claim they get

In regards to the subject: Currently Grey Dealers seem to prefer Consignment vs buying more stock they struggle to sell immediately. Even the dealers that were claiming a few months back they would never do consignments. Dealers will only do trade ins if they can slaughter you on the price ( ie you give them a 15500 and get a 116500 with no cash) so then they can sell the 15500 and make profit.

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[Vivalas]

Right now there’s global uncertainty in lots of areas, interest rates, inflation and energy prices for a start. So makes sense that there’s uncertainty in the grey watch market too. Grey prices dropping, sales dropping, excess stock levels, borrowing rates increasing. Loads of potential reasons why they aren’t buying.

At the end of the day, if you could afford them and haven’t borrowed to buy them, enjoy them and wear them. . . . . . Something we all used to day anyway before all this recent hype.

[GarageBMW]

Originally Posted by dmash

It’s the market. Some greys are refusing Subs and GMTs even at retail, as they’re already so saturated. This isn’t an opinion, there’s dealers who have posted videos saying such and other firsthand experiences such as yourself.

A bit of ‘writing on the wall’ if you will……kind of hard to turn a blind eye at this point. But this shouldn’t even matter to anybody who was truly into horology from the get go. I simply track pricing as a means of seeing how much longer I might have to wait for my allocations.

I believe in the coming months we’ll see who *truly* liked these watches. I have a feeling a lot of these new guys who were quote on quote 'obesessed with watches and here for the long term', will have a sudden change of heart if their money spent turns negative. A lot of people were disillusioned into loving something simply because it was an immediate profit maker, not for what is actually was. Time will tell!

Absolutely spot on. Couldn't have said it better

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by Champagnepapi

So just clarify- you are obsessed with watches or with the market value?… you have no intentions of flipping what u have… and you tried the pieces you were interested in on. Yet just because he wouldn’t take yours in or give you an estimate on it you went to 3 other dealers to check if they would? Lol that sounds as believable as the small margins the greys claim they get

In regards to the subject: Currently Grey Dealers seem to prefer Consignment vs buying more stock they struggle to sell immediately. Even the dealers that were claiming a few months back they would never do consignments. Dealers will only do trade ins if they can slaughter you on the price ( ie you give them a 15500 and get a 116500 with no cash) so then they can sell the 15500 and make profit.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Can one not enjoy the beauty of a gold coin and it’s price action? I jest/just giving you a hard time.

It will be interesting to see what they decide to do with list prices with Jan 1 around the corner as they continue to navigate the brand up market. I’m getting nervous for them overshooting though!

[dchang81]

That'll be nice if they do a price drop like they did before.

[lmcgbaj]

Why would anyone wanna hold stock in a downwards buyers market unless they are getting a killer price. They probably don't want to insult the OP with the real offer.

Even than, how many dealers have non-leveraged, non-financed fresh cash to deploy? Folks have been buying the stock market and crypto dip for the last year. Even if they have cash why would they risk it? A lot of dealers with March inventory got burned badly. Really badly.

Losing money will teach you precaution. It's the era of consignment now, let the dealer shop for suckers willing to pay 3x on 15500s today. I want to meet those folks cos I have some collectable Beanie Babies.

[youthagainsttt]

Originally Posted by Champagnepapi

So just clarify- you are obsessed with watches or with the market value?… you have no intentions of flipping what u have… and you tried the pieces you were interested in on. Yet just because he wouldn’t take yours in or give you an estimate on it you went to 3 other dealers to check if they would? Lol that sounds as believable as the small margins the greys claim they get

In regards to the subject: Currently Grey Dealers seem to prefer Consignment vs buying more stock they struggle to sell immediately. Even the dealers that were claiming a few months back they would never do consignments. Dealers will only do trade ins if they can slaughter you on the price ( ie you give them a 15500 and get a 116500 with no cash) so then they can sell the 15500 and make profit.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I know it sounds kinda funny but 1 glance at my watch collection- I’ve got Piaget, Hublot & recently got a frederique constant world time. I spend probably too much time trying in watches at ADs & greys & as you can imagine, value may drop into the conversation but perhaps 1% is about that and the other 99% is about the watch etc

I got into AP around 8 years ago before all the hype as well

[psm11]

I think my favorite thing about grays right now is that they crush you on price if you are selling them a piece and they tell you the market has changed but refuse to drop the price of the 15500 they bought 4 months ago for 60k. You can’t have it both ways.

[dchang81]

Originally Posted by psm11

I think my favorite thing about grays right now is that they crush you on price if you are selling them a piece and they tell you the market has changed but refuse to drop the price of the 15500 they bought 4 months ago for 60k. You can’t have it both ways.

That's what I don't get, are they all still holding out hope that another bubble will start forming? I would think they would try to start moving excess inventory but it's more of a gentle trickle. I figured it was bad a few months ago when a well known grey said no to even an offer for a steel Rolex sports model, but their pricing still hasn't budged. I would think some of these over leveraged folks would start undercutting each other but they've done a good job cooperating I guess.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by dchang81

That's what I don't get, are they all still holding out hope that another bubble will start forming? I would think they would try to start moving excess inventory but it's more of a gentle trickle. I figured it was bad a few months ago when a well known grey said no to even an offer for a steel Rolex sports model, but their pricing still hasn't budged. I would think some of these over leveraged folks would start undercutting each other but they've done a good job cooperating I guess.

Agreed! The amount of 26331s I see listed for 80-90k is absurd. Those prices aren’t happening again (I refuse to believe end users were buying them at the price). At some point they are going to have to accept they made a mistake and take the loss

[dmash]

Originally Posted by psm11

Agreed! The amount of 26331s I see listed for 80-90k is absurd. Those prices aren’t happening again (I refuse to believe end users were buying them at the price). At some point they are going to have to accept they made a mistake and take the loss

26240’s have been sitting for months unsold at this point. I’m tracking them extensively as it’s the model I want. I mean not a SINGLE one has moved. It’s funny watching some of these guys trying to deceive the market and pulling a listing for $50k, relisting at $55k, dropping after a couple weeks,etc etc. I can’t believe they really think buyers are that dense.

Which brings me to my next point that it’s insane that on Chrono24 there’s over 100 alone. Whilst being a 50th model. AP usually does a pretty good job interviewing candidates, so I think the majority of these went as ‘tokens’ to long time clients. Who didn’t even want them and flipped immediately. Sad. It’s just nonsensical there’s that many for sale in the mere months they’ve been released. Which in my opinion (no offense to any whales) why it’s kind of a sticky situation when a lot of guys feel they’re entitled to new releases with previous history. It can unfortunately denature the brand as well if they’re just flipped away.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by dmash

26240’s have been sitting for months unsold at this point. I’m tracking them extensively as it’s the model I want. I mean not a SINGLE one has moved. It’s funny watching some of these guys trying to deceive the market and pulling a listing for $50k, relisting at $55k, dropping after a couple weeks,etc etc. I can’t believe they really think buyers are that dense.

Which brings me to my next point that it’s insane that on Chrono24 there’s over 100 alone. Whilst being a 50th model. AP usually does a pretty good job interviewing candidates, so I think the majority of these went as ‘tokens’ to long time clients. Who didn’t even want them and flipped immediately. Sad. It’s just nonsensical there’s that many for sale in the mere months they’ve been released. Which in my opinion (no offense to any whales) why it’s kind of a sticky situation when a lot of guys feel they’re entitled to new releases with previous history. It can unfortunately denature the brand as well if they’re just flipped away.

Well said. SAs refuse to own up to this when I bring it up. AP still very much has a problem with flippers.

[macrowatch]

Sorry in advance to all our fellow esteemed Brits in the forum (WTF is happening?!?) Maybe the best explanation would seem like though maybe all the inventory is getting cleaned out of the UK leaving little dribs of business for the US and HK grays.

Wow, just wow, I'm floored by the exchange rate right now.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

Sorry in advance to all our fellow esteemed Brits in the forum (WTF is happening?!?) Maybe the best explanation would seem like though maybe all the inventory is getting cleaned out of the UK leaving little dribs of business for the US and HK grays.

Wow, just wow, I'm floored by the exchange rate right now.

I remember traveling for the first time to the UK some 15 years ago and it was almost a 2:1 rate with the USD. Absolutely insane.

[Vivalas]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

Sorry in advance to all our fellow esteemed Brits in the forum (WTF is happening?!?) Maybe the best explanation would seem like though maybe all the inventory is getting cleaned out of the UK leaving little dribs of business for the US and HK grays.

Wow, just wow, I'm floored by the exchange rate right now.

Yes the exchange rate is truly awful now. I normally go to the US every year and going forward it’s looking very expensive. Fortunately I went in March and the rate wasn’t too bad.

The new Prime Minister has announced a very radical mini budget which has caused this drip over the last few days. Time will tell how it will play out. In the meantime we could see more price increases maybe!

[Old Expat Beast]

I remember back in the early 90s here in Hong Kong, one pound sterling got you very close to HK$16. Today it's almost down to HK$8 (US$ and HK$ are linked). Might be a good time to call it a day and move back home.