PSA: The Daytona costs about $12,000

[TheDude]

The real opportunities are in vintage. Serious downturn for a few months in 2009. Bought one, should have bought ten. I’ll know next time...


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[dmash]

Originally Posted by OgSnowflake

I’d bet a grey market ceramic Daytona doesn’t exchange hands for less than 15k bucks for as long as all of us are alive with the exception of like a Vegas pawn shop/owing Leslie chow 80k bucks situation.

ya, ok

[American Jedi]

Originally Posted by dmash

Every single time the market is hot, without fail, an abundance of people will think in their head 'oh this time is different' and it's not coming back down for a long while. Hence the people buying $20k Daytonas right now. If they didn't buy that watch to keep long term, they're going to be crying in a few years.

Every. Single. Time.

Agreed.


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[American Jedi]

I wish. In 09 I bought some nice Rolex pieces for less than half of what they run today. Mostly from luxury home builders. Some great car deals too.

[TickTopia]

Originally Posted by prefontaine

And, during the next recession, you will be able to buy a brand new one for about $10,000.

This has been a public service announcement from your friendly local TRF economist.

...

[Sandpit]

It’ll be the $18k BLRO guys crying hardest. The ones that just had to have the newest model first.

[Bigblu10]

For folks wishing for economic recession so they can have the chance at buying a watch (which none of us really NEED) be careful what you wish for. It might be your job and career on the line. Then, a watch will be the furthest thing from your priority.

[doubleinfive]

Are watches the first things to go when people are cash-strapped?

[904VT]

Originally Posted by prefontaine

Ask ten economists, get fifteen different answers. ;-)

But probably within 5 years. Seems more likely to be a business cycle contraction than a serious recession.

Perhaps, also, when the market realizes the issues with ETFs and the ripple effect becomes this decade's equivalent of the CDS crisis. In that scenario, market makers are in the same position as insurers 07/08. Let's hope not, but LIBOR increases may have already triggered this and we just aren't fully aware yet

[dmash]

Originally Posted by doubleinfive

Are watches the first things to go when people are cash-strapped?

of course this isn't a definitive fact......but excess, luxury purchases are certainly sold at (heavy) discounts during this time. These people are honestly living in cuckoo land who think that in a true recession, the 'hot' watches are still going to be pulling crazy premiums over MSRP lol. They'll be lucky to be anything over MSRP, and stuff like the basic Sub will go back to *under* MSRP.

[watchmework]

Most optimistic post of the month, I like it! Still think it’d be pretty dang difficult to obtain though.

[Drake3287]

Exactly right. I remember when I got the waiting list for my BLNR, the ad said a year or so earlier he couldn't give them away. How quickly things change.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by dmash

of course this isn't a definitive fact......but excess, luxury purchases are certainly sold at (heavy) discounts during this time. These people are honestly living in cuckoo land who think that in a true recession, the 'hot' watches are still going to be pulling crazy premiums over MSRP lol. They'll be lucky to be anything over MSRP, and stuff like the basic Sub will go back to *under* MSRP.

You're right, they're still discretionary and discretionary suffers in recessions. We'll be back to 10% discounts on SS and Daytonas in SS at MSRP at ADs. Credit card charge offs are already at 2012 levels. I have a feeling Rolex would've already raised prices if they thought the economy would continue in growth. The fact that they're limiting supplies right now, I think is very telling.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by 904VT

You're right, they're still discretionary and discretionary suffers in recessions. We'll be back to 10% discounts on SS and Daytonas in SS at MSRP at ADs. Credit card charge offs are already at 2012 levels. I have a feeling Rolex would've already raised prices if they thought the economy would continue in growth. The fact that they're limiting supplies right now, I think is very telling.

It's like everybody wants to play economist on TRF but they want to ignore things that are so obviously in their face

[kultschar]

Cant see this happening to be honest. Times have changed

[dmash]

Originally Posted by dmash

Every single time the market is hot, without fail, an abundance of people will think in their head 'oh this time is different' and it's not coming back down for a long while. Hence the people buying $20k Daytonas right now. If they didn't buy that watch to keep long term, they're going to be crying in a few years.

Every. Single. Time.

Originally Posted by kultschar

Cant see this happening to be honest. Times have changed

[kultschar]

No chance 10k USD.

Happy to put a wager on it!

[lecorsaire]

Originally Posted by OgSnowflake

I’d bet a grey market ceramic Daytona doesn’t exchange hands for less than 15k bucks for as long as all of us are alive with the exception of like a Vegas pawn shop/owing Leslie chow 80k bucks situation.

They did exchange hands for less $15k than that since lots of grey dealers were selling black ones for $16k a year ago. I don't think they were paying more than 14 for them.

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by prefontaine

And, during the next recession, you will be able to buy a brand new one for about $10,000.

This has been a public service announcement from your friendly local TRF economist.

This is what I expect more of here at TRF. Way to offset the latest "Guess how much this Rolex will sell for in 1, 2, 5 years?" threads!

[dmash]

Originally Posted by kultschar

No chance 10k USD.

Happy to put a wager on it!

At least you have the balls to back it up

[RJRJRJ]

The Daytona will never trade for less than $12,400.

EDIT: I'm referring to the ceramic Daytona.

[Boaters]

Correction - Correction thought it would have happened already

[prefontaine]

Originally Posted by kultschar

No chance 10k USD.

Happy to put a wager on it!

Where are you located? I would consider a bet.

[Plai]

I would never ever pay a premium for anything.

Got my 116520 in 2013 with a 10% discount. The tides will turn again!

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Plai

I would never ever pay a premium for anything.

Got my 116520 in 2013 with a 10% discount. The tides will turn again!

All trends are cyclical or 1 and done, never constant.....EVER. This is because stuff isn't 'cool' when normal people start to have it. and despite purists not wanting to admit it.....SS Rolex, and especially Daytona, is not only a trendy watch, it's a trendy fashion accessory.

It's as if a lot of people can't comprehend.....what's cool to IG right now? That is not cool to IG in 3 years, AT ALL. and these people purchasing the Daytonas, aren't watch people, and keeping them for years. They will be flipped, even at a loss, once it's not hot. and when they start churning, it's going to go downhill reallll quick as they competitively try to sale under one another. They'll learn.

and what's crazier, is this will inevitably happen in the ABSENCE of an economic recession. If that comes too? RIP secondary market

[prefontaine]

Anyone want to take a wager?

Stakes: Bottle of wine valued between $200 and $300 shipped anywhere in the U.S. the winner specifies. Wine to be selected, purchased, and shipped by loser.

Wager: There will be a documented NIB Rolex Daytona Ceramic transaction between June 18, 2018 and June 18, 2023, for $11,000 net. (To allow that a qualifying deal might be taxed.) The watch must be NIB but need not be from an AD.

[lecorsaire]

Originally Posted by RJRJRJ

The Daytona will never trade for less than $12,400.

They did when the ceramic was announced. While retail is usually the floor it all depends of the state of the economy in the future. A lot of people buying these things will have to let these go when things go south and I will be waiting to scoop some up!

[RJRJRJ]

Originally Posted by lecorsaire

They did when the ceramic was announced. While retail is usually the floor it all depends of the state of the economy in the future. A lot of people buying these things will have to let these go when things go south and I will be waiting to scoop some up!

I should have specified I was referring to the ceramic Daytona.

[lecorsaire]

Originally Posted by RJRJRJ

I should have specified I was referring to the ceramic Daytona.

I know, but steel Daytona is steel Daytona. The generation doesn't matter since each one is valuable. One day the ceramic will be discontinued as well.

[RJRJRJ]

Originally Posted by lecorsaire

I know, but steel Daytona is steel Daytona. The generation doesn't matter since each one is valuable. One day the ceramic will be discontinued as well.

It certainly may, but I doubt it will be before at least one price hike.