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Old 10 November 2022, 07:13 AM   #1651
Vince_76
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The fact is, it's as good as it's going to get now, and yes, low ball them.. I even got Watchbox to negotiate thousands off a potential purchase of a formerly hyped piece..

I expect we'll be treading bottom on these watch prices for a bit, with some minor dips and climbs.. but no spike in either direction anytime soon..

if by early '23 Fed pivots and equity market heats up... we see mild growth in watch demand, if we have negative economic news into late '23, then more down pressure... it's not that complicated at this point.
ďAs good as itís going to getĒÖ weíve heard that before. Itís going to get worse. No bottom has been tested.
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Old 10 November 2022, 07:22 AM   #1652
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ďAs good as itís going to getĒÖ weíve heard that before. Itís going to get worse. No bottom has been tested.
I agree, but the rate of descent has been arrested by a good bit.. has been for about 1 or more months. I think the bottom you predict (where we get 20% off MSRP at the AD) isn't. ever to return in our lifetime.
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Old 10 November 2022, 07:26 AM   #1653
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I agree, but the rate of descent has been arrested by a good bit.. has been for about 1 or more months. I think the bottom you predict (where we get 20% off MSRP at the AD) isn't. ever to return in our lifetime.
Pepsis (and GMTs in general) have been falling particularly fast, as have ROs.

Youíre assuming the bottom ďI predictĒ. I did not even refer to ADs or a 20% discount.
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Old 10 November 2022, 07:28 AM   #1654
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Pepsis (and GMTs in general) have been falling particularly fast, as have ROs.

Youíre assuming the bottom ďI predictĒ. I did not even refer to ADs or a 20% discount.
All I know is it makes me sad that this thread is absolutely on fire right now, and has been for months, meanwhile two threads I started today on horology and watches are barely getting any reads..
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Old 10 November 2022, 07:43 AM   #1655
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I think the bottom you predict (where we get 20% off MSRP at the AD) isn't. ever to return in our lifetime.
Genuine question - why do you think that?
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Old 10 November 2022, 07:46 AM   #1656
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Genuine question - why do you think that?
Gene is out of the bottle... in my time collecting, watches are just far more popular than ever (thank Instagram, celebrity hype, flex culture, whatever).. And the Swiss brands aren't going to flood the market and risk reputation loss, and a return to the dark days of SS Subs piled up at the AD... They will adjust supply before they allow that.. but they won't have to for the above mentioned reason.

When I wore my Rolex back in the early 90's ... nobody gave a $hit.. now it's impossible to go out with it and not get a comment or two.. and old case of supply=demand at work.
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Old 10 November 2022, 08:03 AM   #1657
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I agree, but the rate of descent has been arrested by a good bit.. has been for about 1 or more months. I think the bottom you predict (where we get 20% off MSRP at the AD) isn't. ever to return in our lifetime.
Sorry but this is grossly wrong

Itís going down weekly, thereís absolutely no floor and itís odd youíre claiming that
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Old 10 November 2022, 08:05 AM   #1658
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Gene is out of the bottle... in my time collecting, watches are just far more popular than ever (thank Instagram, celebrity hype, flex culture, whatever).. And the Swiss brands aren't going to flood the market and risk reputation loss, and a return to the dark days of SS Subs piled up at the AD... They will adjust supply before they allow that.. but they won't have to for the above mentioned reason.

When I wore my Rolex back in the early 90's ... nobody gave a $hit.. now it's impossible to go out with it and not get a comment or two.. and old case of supply=demand at work.
None of us have any idea what will happen. This could be a money grab and nobody cares about watches in 5 years. Ed Hardy was selling for multiples of retail at some point too, David Yurman was all the rave in jewelry at one point as well, stuff changes. Claiming this is forever is completely unrealistic in my opinion
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Old 10 November 2022, 08:06 AM   #1659
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Sorry but this is grossly wrong

Itís going down weekly, thereís absolutely no floor and itís odd youíre claiming that
Hey, if I'm wrong I'll be the first to head over to the various boutiques that are right NOW requiring applications, existing customer history, and multi-year waiting lists to pick up several watches from several brands.. But, I hope you're right.. I just don't see it.. I guess TIME will tell (pun intended).
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Old 10 November 2022, 08:08 AM   #1660
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Hey, if I'm wrong I'll be the first to head over to the various boutiques that are right NOW requiring applications, existing customer history, and multi-year waiting lists to pick up several watches from several brands.. But, I hope you're right.. I just don't see it.. I guess TIME will tell (pun intended).
I mean Iím not trying to prove you wrong or something odd, Iím just simply saying what youíre claiming isnít true at all. Prices are dropping weekly, consistently. No floor has been formed whatsoever. When it finally does maybe we can believe that stuff has stabilized a bit, but for now? Absolutely not

And with recent market and Bitcoin action, would make zero sense why it will not drop further
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Old 10 November 2022, 08:09 AM   #1661
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None of us have any idea what will happen. This could be a money grab and nobody cares about watches in 5 years. Ed Hardy was selling for multiples of retail at some point too, David Yurman was all the rave in jewelry at one point as well, stuff changes. Claiming this is forever is completely unrealistic in my opinion
right.. the watch "Fad" could end, and Apple gets their wish.. we all wear their "watch".. My gut is that might hurt the Tudor's, Breitlings, and Tissot's of the world a lot more than AP, VC and PP.. not to mention Rolex.
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Old 10 November 2022, 08:12 AM   #1662
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right.. the watch "Fad" could end, and Apple gets their wish.. we all wear their "watch".. My gut is that might hurt the Tudor's, Breitlings, and Tissot's of the world a lot more than AP, VC and PP.. not to mention Rolex.
I *do* believe AP/PP are pivoting to where they’re fairly insulated on the hotter models. Rolex is a different beast though, despite being the most well known their circulating supply is MASSIVE. It’s actually pretty kind blogging how many Subs and GMTs are in circulation around the world, and I’m just talking recent ceramic ones. If this turns out to be a fad, these will drop hard.
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Old 10 November 2022, 08:12 AM   #1663
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I mean Iím not trying to prove you wrong or something odd, Iím just simply saying what youíre claiming isnít true at all. Prices are dropping weekly, consistently. No floor has been formed whatsoever. When it finally does maybe we can believe that stuff has stabilized a bit, but for now? Absolutely not

And with recent market and Bitcoin action, would make zero sense why it will not drop further
not saying there aren't drops.. just the rate of the drop is slowing. I think the mathematical term is that it's logarithmic..
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Old 10 November 2022, 08:16 AM   #1664
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I *do* believe AP/PP are pivoting to where they’re fairly insulated on the hotter models. Rolex is a different beast though, despite being the most well known their circulating supply is MASSIVE. It’s actually pretty kind blogging how many Subs and GMTs are in circulation around the world, and I’m just talking recent ceramic ones. If this turns out to be a fad, these will drop hard.
good points but we have to ask ourselves.. just because there are 200-400 BNIB Subs out there circulating between several gray dealers, the fact that even now in this massively depressed economic state, you STILL can't walk in and buy one at the AD and a "bargain" on one at the Gray market is still 20% above MSRP, that says something about the demand... Forget 1 year ago, that was pure hype and spectators thinking watches are the next bitcoin, now it's pure watch buyers.. and you and I aren't the typical buyer.. he doesn't sit on a forum chatting. watches, he's clueless as to what Moda is asking.. he researches his watch prices on google (Chrono24, Watchbox, etc)..
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Old 10 November 2022, 08:16 AM   #1665
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I agree, but the rate of descent has been arrested by a good bit.. has been for about 1 or more months. I think the bottom you predict (where we get 20% off MSRP at the AD) isn't. ever to return in our lifetime.

This hasnít been my observation. And it wasnít all that long ago (last 5-10 years) where ADs were discounting pretty big time. Thatís definitely coming again in the coming years.


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Old 10 November 2022, 08:17 AM   #1666
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This hasnít been my observation. And it wasnít all that long ago (last 5-10 years) where ADs were discounting pretty big time. Thatís definitely coming again in the coming years.


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Maybe .. Maybe .. So if you want a watch NOW.. you gonna wait 5-10 years? or get it now?
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Old 10 November 2022, 08:20 AM   #1667
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good points but we have to ask ourselves.. just because there are 200-400 BNIB Subs out there circulating between several gray dealers, the fact that even now in this massively depressed economic state, you STILL can't walk in and buy one at the AD and a "bargain" on one at the Gray market is still 20% above MSRP, that says something about the demand... Forget 1 year ago, that was pure hype and spectators thinking watches are the next bitcoin, now it's pure watch buyers.. and you and I aren't the typical buyer.. he doesn't sit on a forum chatting. watches, he's clueless as to what Moda is asking.. he researches his watch prices on google (Chrono24, Watchbox, etc)..
You’re completely disregarding the reality of this dropping further and lots of current owners who *werent* watch people, getting out before they lose money. There’s a huge population (my opinion) of these guys who are sweating right now. You’re basing the entire market future on nobody else ever selling another watch, and AD/current grey market is the finite supply.

I firmly believe we’ve still not seen anything yet. For all markets.
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Old 10 November 2022, 08:32 AM   #1668
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Maybe .. Maybe .. So if you want a watch NOW.. you gonna wait 5-10 years? or get it now?
Man what are you even saying? Thatís now what GGGMT is saying at all. Please donít create straw man arguments - itís one of the reasons you got banned last time. Put your pride to the side.
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Old 10 November 2022, 08:33 AM   #1669
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Youíre completely disregarding the reality of this dropping further and lots of current owners who *werent* watch people, getting out before they lose money. Thereís a huge population (my opinion) of these guys who are sweating right now. Youíre basing the entire market future on nobody else ever selling another watch, and AD/current grey market is the finite supply.

I firmly believe weíve still not seen anything yet. For all markets.

Agree with you... Still can't pick up the wanted models at AD (yet), but with the gravy train stopping and 1) people who bought watches who weren't really interested and now may be "underwater" (aka normal markets) and 2) people not being able to make obscene profits this will go further down.

Case in point there's a mint 226570 Explorer (does this count as a sports model?) on this forum for 9,800 not moving and looking for best offers. At an AD it's 9,500 plus tax, so in my location 10,260... So it's already under MSRP as well
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Old 10 November 2022, 08:34 AM   #1670
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Man what are you even saying? Thatís now what GGGMT is saying at all. Please donít create straw man arguments - itís one of the reasons you got banned last time. Put your pride to the side.
That was because I lost my temper, they donít moderate opinions here, at least not that I know of. Anyways, time will tell.
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Old 10 November 2022, 08:35 AM   #1671
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What’s most odd to me, is as I’ve said in AP forum

If you’re truly into collecting/horology, why would you NOT want the market to go back to normalcy…..you can get more watches, will still maintain around MSRP, flippers are gone. It’s a win win everywhere.

No offense to anyone but I feel like the only ones who are bent in this not going down more, wanting prices to stay higher, thinking we’re stabilizing……paid grey or flip themselves. As it doesn’t make any sense to me otherwise
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Old 10 November 2022, 09:18 AM   #1672
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Bitcoin has breached 17k

This is just the beginning of whatís to come in my opinion.
15k now.
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Old 10 November 2022, 09:19 AM   #1673
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That was because I lost my temper, they donít moderate opinions here, at least not that I know of. Anyways, time will tell.
Aren't you the guy that called a bottom 2 months ago?

Weren't you crying about the Ed White as well?
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Old 10 November 2022, 09:39 AM   #1674
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15k now.
Iím sure none of the new watch crowd were also crypto bros

Iím sure this affects nothing

Iím sure stock market is fine

Iím sure real estate market is fine
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Old 10 November 2022, 11:06 AM   #1675
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It is good to be back from the dead (was banned). Ahaha

So I had time to spend in the city and visit the exhib of Sotheby and Antiquorum.

Hard to discribe what I felt, but it was quiet.... Not a lot of real buyers.

There was also a 4 day event "reluxury" in the city center (second hand watches to sell). Ponti (which I often check on their website) was there... God... They only sold a few watches... (When the whole watch world, buyers and collectors are in town?!)

Honestly, we have not reached the bottom.... So I refrein to pull the trigger on anything and will wait.

PS: BTW, best watch I saw was a GMT Bachelite that will be auctionned this Dec in NYC by Sotheby's. She made me forget everything else... I had never seen one like this.
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Old 10 November 2022, 11:14 AM   #1676
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The next price reduction is already on the way. Takes some time for the asking prices to reflect it. Some people just don’t see it. No point arguing or quarreling.
Just ask dealers how much are they willing to pay for your watch. They may not even want to make an offer. More and more pieces have already fallen below MSRP. Good luck to all flippers who are against all odds now
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Old 10 November 2022, 11:40 AM   #1677
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It is good to be back from the dead (was banned). Ahaha

So I had time to spend in the city and visit the exhib of Sotheby and Antiquorum.

Hard to discribe what I felt, but it was quiet.... Not a lot of real buyers.

There was also a 4 day event "reluxury" in the city center (second hand watches to sell). Ponti (which I often check on their website) was there... God... They only sold a few watches... (When the whole watch world, buyers and collectors are in town?!)

Honestly, we have not reached the bottom.... So I refrein to pull the trigger on anything and will wait.

PS: BTW, best watch I saw was a GMT Bachelite that will be auctionned this Dec in NYC by Sotheby's. She made me forget everything else... I had never seen one like this.
Some very unique things at Antiquorum sold quite well.

For example the Portuguese presentation Patek pocket watch.
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Old 10 November 2022, 11:55 AM   #1678
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Some very unique things at Antiquorum sold quite well.

For example the Portuguese presentation Patek pocket watch.
100%

Also like the serie of basic color OP went for a price that smelled "proxy corruption". Some prices were way higher than what you can find on chrono.

During the pandemic lots of nice lots were x2.5 the max estimate (!). Now it is rare.

But then there were a lot of nice watches which went for a cheap price or were passed. (Some houses remove the unsold watches but you can still verify with the PDF catalog)

Like this one which I saw and was perfect but went below retail and waaay below c24 of course: https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auct...inum?locale=en How could buyers miss that if it is that cheap? Or the lot 144 did not sell at all for 45k (without hammer) if I recall... In the mean time: https://k2luxury.ch/watches/brand/pa...olden-ellipse/

Actually, I meant "quiet in the exib rooms". ;)

My feeling was that buyers are now only buying if they have a customer for the piece but not for stock (minus exceptions of course) because they do not trust the market (like us) and wait.
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Old 10 November 2022, 11:57 AM   #1679
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Aren't you the guy that called a bottom 2 months ago?

Weren't you crying about the Ed White as well?
I'm done with this place.. I asked them to delete my account.
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Old 10 November 2022, 12:05 PM   #1680
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I'm done with this place.. I asked them to delete my account.
Best wishes Hal, have a good day
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