Talking Stocks 2.0

[7sins]

Originally Posted by logo

I agree, I have June $400 calls which I am up ~100% on and plan to sell those probably next week or the week after before earnings. I’ll hope to take advantage of what should be a bit of an IV spike, and I think (just my guess) it’ll probably get to the 390-395 range pre-earnings. That seems to be where the next resistance level is. I suspect it’ll dip a bit afterwards to consolidate where I’ll likely re-enter with leaps.

That is exactly right, I remember us posting about it awhile back. Look at the IV chart below, IV30 day vs His Vol MA. Notice how much higher IV was earlier in the year, especially with heightened option vol. We saw IV move close to 40 and yet, even with a nice run over the last month, IV hasn't budged and resides in the low 20s. If the SP sustains, IV should stop capitulating and rise causing option value to rise. The SP surpassed $400 once in history, when it shortly spiked to $428 pre-covid. If it keeps moving towards $400, I agree that's probably the time to peel back and wait for a dip. Theta and time decay more of an issue since your calls are for June, your profits could start to dissipate even though the stock price goes sideways or slightly creeps up. ER is april 20th, I suspect IV for options should rise in anticipation, plan to trim some of my exposure on the run up into ER.

[logo]

Originally Posted by 7sins

That is exactly right, I remember us posting about it awhile back. Look at the IV chart below, IV30 day vs His Vol MA. Notice how much higher IV was earlier in the year, especially with heightened option vol. We saw IV move close to 40 and yet, even with a nice run over the last month, IV hasn't budged and resides in the low 20s. If the SP sustains, IV should stop capitulating and rise causing option value to rise. The SP surpassed $400 once in history, when it shortly spiked to $428 pre-covid. If it keeps moving towards $400, I agree that's probably the time to peel back and wait for a dip. Theta and time decay more of an issue since your calls are for June, your profits could start to dissipate even though the stock price goes sideways or slightly creeps up. ER is april 20th, I suspect IV for options should rise in anticipation, plan to trim some of my exposure on the run up into ER.

Yes exactly. Keeping a close eye on IV and basically trying to time that against time decay. Selling them all within 2 weeks is my aim.

[scarlet knight]

So Pfizer is one of two companies with a smooth rollout of a vaccine that can save humanity. And it’s stock is anchored in the mid 30s. Probably will have massive booster income. Perplexes me.

[logo]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

So Pfizer is one of two companies with a smooth rollout of a vaccine that can save humanity. And it’s stock is anchored in the mid 30s. Probably will have massive booster income. Perplexes me.

It is interesting. It has a large float, but not overly massive. MRNA added about 40B to its market cap through COVID, which I think is more in regards to their overall tech; however, even that perplexed me as their mRNA vaccines for other health conditions are still very early pre-clinical phase, apart from Cytomegalovirus which is phase II. Compare that to INO who is one of the only developers of DNA vaccines (which can be rapid prototyped like mRNA, but can be stored at room temperature), who is Phase III for cervical cancer, has a COVID vaccine in phase II, and several ongoing phase II studies for various other cancers all with a market cap of only 1.8 billion (and 28% of shares short).

I don’t understand well enough how pharma stocks are valued to see why this is the case. I imagine having an FDA-approved medicine is huge, and buyout potential also contributes. In my view though I’d think MRNA is slightly overvalued, INO is quite undervalued with potential to go vertical with that short interest, and PFE is just a big old slug with a large float that should probably be trading in the 40s.

I’ve been curious about INO for some time from a scientific/medical perspective, but would be very curious to hear what others on here think of it in the context of how early stage pharma stocks tend to play out.

[Dusko.Popov]

Yes it’s a blank check reverse merger situation but I think it’s worth some due diligence. Be interested to hear any technical thoughts from what you can glean from S1 and such.

Hopefully you give it a look.

I’m heavily invested. It’s my “Shopify” guess.

No one knows the future for certain but I think this is it:

Stem,Inc. (Stpk)

[Dusko.Popov]

Anyone invested in Perion Network?

[7sins]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

So Pfizer is one of two companies with a smooth rollout of a vaccine that can save humanity. And it’s stock is anchored in the mid 30s. Probably will have massive booster income. Perplexes me.

PFE has over 5.5 BILLION shares outstanding (this is what is called a "float"). That is MASSIVE, one of the highest outstanding floats in existence, think of the amount of demand and shares that need to be moved for the stock price to move. Look at the historical chart, it traded in a very narrow channel for years because of this.

On top of that, as the price rises, there are often sellers which adds more shares at a certain stock price thus creating more resistance - supply and demand here. Also, remember PFE is one of, if not, the largest pharmaceutical company in the world - they essentially are the pharmaceutical market. They generate over $42B EACH year in revenue, the revenue from the vaccine, with a low margin, is just a drop in the bucket for PFE. Thus it really isn't that meaningful to shareholders, while still being an incredible milestone and accomplishment for the company/world.

This is very different than MRNA whose float was only 300M shares and had ZERO revenue before their vaccine was approved. Now this proves their technology, validates impressive pipeline and are now profitable. Thus you would expect the stock price to move significantly higher.

[scarlet knight]

Thank you for your take on Pfizer!

[bimmer nerd]

What are everyones thoughts on Coinbase IPO?

It is giving me similar vibes as DoorDash when it IPO'd. I do believe it will be a successful company long term, however at $100B out the door seems ridiculous to me with more companies entering the crypto exchange space every day.

I'll give it couple of weeks/months to see where it settles before I buy puts similar to Dash. Made very well on those.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by bimmer nerd

What are everyones thoughts on Coinbase IPO?

It is giving me similar vibes as DoorDash when it IPO'd. I do believe it will be a successful company long term, however at $100B out the door seems ridiculous to me with more companies entering the crypto exchange space every day.

I'll give it couple of weeks/months to see where it settles before I buy puts similar to Dash. Made very well on those.

have quite a bit of stocks currently that are tied to bitcoin so i'm gonna stay away from coinbase for now. i agree though that they are a solid company, at least for now with it being a bull market, but the price seems a bit too high like you said (for now). at least it's not as crowded of a business as food delivery, doordash has so many competitors that the valuation makes no sense

[RBradleigh]

Originally Posted by bimmer nerd

What are everyones thoughts on Coinbase IPO?

It is giving me similar vibes as DoorDash when it IPO'd. I do believe it will be a successful company long term, however at $100B out the door seems ridiculous to me with more companies entering the crypto exchange space every day.

I'll give it couple of weeks/months to see where it settles before I buy puts similar to Dash. Made very well on those.

I threw $1000 at it this morning, Ally only accepted a limit order so i got in at $340 instead of $250. And as coincidental as it may be it’s looking like the after hours are settling at just that, $340.

My justification for buying a few shares is i own a couple of btc and if/when i sell and coinbase gets their 1.5% commission I’m sort of paying myself by helping their revenue. Is that considered a hedge?

[huncho]

Originally Posted by RBradleigh

I threw $1000 at it this morning, Ally only accepted a limit order so i got in at $340 instead of $250. And as coincidental as it may be it’s looking like the after hours are settling at just that, $340.

My justification for buying a few shares is i own a couple of btc and if/when i sell and coinbase gets their 1.5% commission I’m sort of paying myself by helping their revenue. Is that considered a hedge?

340 isn't too bad, at least you didn't get in at 400+ lol. but today was a crazy day with anything related to coinbase and btc, i'm hoping things settle back down tomorrow. with btc hitting new ath's all week i really didn't expect such huge sell offs

[supernova]

Originally Posted by bimmer nerd

What are everyones thoughts on Coinbase IPO?

It is giving me similar vibes as DoorDash when it IPO'd. I do believe it will be a successful company long term, however at $100B out the door seems ridiculous to me with more companies entering the crypto exchange space every day.

I'll give it couple of weeks/months to see where it settles before I buy puts similar to Dash. Made very well on those.

If you want exposure to crypto then buy crypto, COIN is pretty much fully correlated to BTC and ETH, with the added risk of other large exchanges over taking them in the future.

Unless they diversify, there is zero reason to buy them over BTC/ETH.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[jaisonline]

I need to look at COIN in more detail about revenue. My main initial concern is what happens to coinbase rev when cryptocurrency commissions go lower or even free like most online brokerages.

[CastorKrieg]

Originally Posted by trippinjimmy

For those who can stomach it being a Chinese stock, and I've said this before, not only have I found BABA very attractive at these levels, Charlie Munger just initiated a large stake recently as well. It's a gamble for sure, but one with significant upside.

I have quite a bit in BABA ADRs, but holding this stock is incredibly frustrating given its market position. I hope with regulatory fine out of the way it can finally start to move up, my bank has 340 target in the next 12-months.

Originally Posted by 7sins

Would look into TME as well.

Probably a good play, should go up once Tencent gets a fine (lol) like with BABA and everyone will move on.

[Wcdhtwn]

Anyone following Coupang, CPNG? It IPO'ed couple of weeks ago, went from 35 to 65. Now it's just under 46, and has gotten below 42. I like the concept of what they do, and think it should be a good buy, but also thinking there is a price in the 30's that I should wait for. But that's a hunch, if anyone has a better idea or insight into it I'd love to hear it. Same for MP Materials and PLUG, these seem to have good long term outlooks but have been getting beaten up pretty badly recently.

[logo]

Originally Posted by kwr

What turned you off initially? They've derisked the story from clinical data, its part of the NCCN guidelines for skin cancer treatment, and reimbursement looks to be getting better. Obviously, the valuation and stock move reflects that and more. Curious on what kept you on the sidelines as it sounded like you had business model / profitability concerns?

Mostly from a medical perspective. For example, let’s say someone comes in to clinic with a concerning skin lesion. If the DMTK says it’s unlikely to be melanoma, will the physician really avoid doing a skin biopsy? I doubt it. If you were a patient, would you choose that over biopsy? Skin biopsy is a relatively harmless procedure in trade for diagnostic certainty and peace of mind that comes with review by a pathologist. Moreover, IF they use the DMTK technology and it’s wrong - then where does liability fall for the missed diagnosis? Melanoma can kill you very quickly, so it’s not a diagnosis to “wait and see.” Conversely, even if the DMTK tech is 100% right every time, that does not eliminate the need for biopsy. For instance, if it says “yes it’s melanoma” - well, you’re getting the scalpel one way or the other. If it says “no it’s not melanoma”, well then what is it? All that’s not melanoma isn’t automatically benign, and a biopsy may still be required if it was suspicious enough to warrant the question of melanoma in the first place. Lastly, dermatologists have very high visual detection capabilities, especially when augmented with dermoscopy. There is also recent progress on using AI and other imaging tech to non-invasively detect melanoma.

All said, while their technology is cool, I struggle to see how the DMTK technology would make a convincing story for why their tech has any role in changing practice. And if it doesn’t drastically change practice, but does add a layer of uncertainty/question to the patient or physician, then how will it sustain revenue? That’s the thinking that made me pass on it.

[logo]

Been contemplating lately, I’m a little concerned about May. May was really the start of the epic run we’ve had, and with the possibility of reopening this summer, vaccinations and such, I can imagine many will take profits in line with the sell in May and go away adage. DOW stocks like HD have been on a rip the past few weeks, some tech reaching new ATHs after that last sell down just a few weeks ago and small cap growth stocks getting absolutely destroyed - especially green energy it seems. Also seeing crypto going wild, which I wonder has something to do of outflow from stocks into crypto - not sure what to make of that yet.

Could potentially see the tech earnings coming up as a good opportunity for the market to start turning. As such, I’m reconsidering where I’m at currently, contemplating liquidating a bunch of stuff to go majority cash and just wait for the opportune entry points either for short term trades or long term positioning as I’m not convinced most current prices are ideal anymore. Might stay in some growth/small-mid cap, but I think the big boys might need a breather. Still need to ponder this more. Still think we end the year higher, however.

What are other members thoughts on market as a whole currently?

[huncho]

Originally Posted by logo

Been contemplating lately, I’m a little concerned about May. May was really the start of the epic run we’ve had, and with the possibility of reopening this summer, vaccinations and such, I can imagine many will take profits in line with the sell in May and go away adage. DOW stocks like HD have been on a rip the past few weeks, some tech reaching new ATHs after that last sell down just a few weeks ago and small cap growth stocks getting absolutely destroyed - especially green energy it seems. Also seeing crypto going wild, which I wonder has something to do of outflow from stocks into crypto - not sure what to make of that yet.

Could potentially see the tech earnings coming up as a good opportunity for the market to start turning. As such, I’m reconsidering where I’m at currently, contemplating liquidating a bunch of stuff to go majority cash and just wait for the opportune entry points either for short term trades or long term positioning as I’m not convinced most current prices are ideal anymore. Might stay in some growth/small-mid cap, but I think the big boys might need a breather. Still need to ponder this more. Still think we end the year higher, however.

What are other members thoughts on market as a whole currently?

i feel like a lot of these reopening stocks are overpriced. airlines are back to pre covid levels basically, hotels are back to pre covid levels as well and i can't understand it with how much money airlines lost last year, and obviously have no idea why hotels have recovered. bought into mgm at ~13 and i'm slowly getting out of there (selling whatever % becomes long term cap gains). too much positivity revolving around reopening but it seems like we're still far from it...pfizer ceo today said the vaccine will likely require a third dose in 12 months so it seems like there's still a lot we don't know that could ruin reopenings. also fauci said even if you're vaccinated you should stay away from eating indoors or going to bars so that makes it seem grim (whether what he says is right or not is another story)

a lot of tech still seems to be having a rough time and i think the last month and a half has just been a huge grind with a lot of people still trying to recover from march. i'm hoping we have a few good months here but personally staying away from buying anything seriously for a while. just playing around with some short term options for now just to keep myself entertained lol, also have leaps on tech that i bought last month that i'm holding because like you said i think we end the year up. my only regret is not getting into nvidia while eyeing it at around 480, but bought too much of the dip last month so i held off

[strettyend]

Any clue what happened to PINS? Didn't see any news on the tape today

[7sins]

Originally Posted by logo

Been contemplating lately, I’m a little concerned about May. May was really the start of the epic run we’ve had, and with the possibility of reopening this summer, vaccinations and such, I can imagine many will take profits in line with the sell in May and go away adage. DOW stocks like HD have been on a rip the past few weeks, some tech reaching new ATHs after that last sell down just a few weeks ago and small cap growth stocks getting absolutely destroyed - especially green energy it seems. Also seeing crypto going wild, which I wonder has something to do of outflow from stocks into crypto - not sure what to make of that yet.

Could potentially see the tech earnings coming up as a good opportunity for the market to start turning. As such, I’m reconsidering where I’m at currently, contemplating liquidating a bunch of stuff to go majority cash and just wait for the opportune entry points either for short term trades or long term positioning as I’m not convinced most current prices are ideal anymore. Might stay in some growth/small-mid cap, but I think the big boys might need a breather. Still need to ponder this more. Still think we end the year higher, however.

What are other members thoughts on market as a whole currently?

Couldn't agree more, remember that small caps will more than likely be the most impacted by a hike in corporate taxes (a rise in individual tax rates will benefit municipal bonds the most). This is because large and megacap companies have floors of CPAs to make sure they manipulate the tax code and pay as little to nothing in taxes. Where as small cap companies, often pay the full corporate tax rate. As a caveat, small cap stocks, SCG in particular, are the best performing asset class over the last 50 years. They also tend to be less impacted by any foreign tensions as they are often not net exporters.

This is the highest cash allocation I have had in my portfolio in the last 18 months. As I mentioned on here, I over allocated a few weeks back in names like TSM and NVDA when they hit were down 10%+. Now I think they have overun and have been trimming a good portion of my gains to cash for the next dip. When we see markets reach all time highs and lower volatility, I am looking to add my own hedges with LEAP puts on stocks I think are over priced and buying calls on the VIX as I am sure there will be some spike in vol which has been very subdued at sub 17 VIX. I can then take these LEAP puts, use those gains when the market pulls back and roll them into stocks/calls at more attractive prices.

The common misconception as an investor is that when the market reaches all time highs, they chase returns and put their cash to work as they fear missing out on a rally. That is often the worst time to allocate new monies. I still think there are good selective opportunities, i've been pounding the table here on COTY since it was $6.50 and at $9 today I still think it is undervalued, same with SABR sub $15. I also am looking to add to my BP and RDS-B leaps as they are still well below pre-covid levels and there will be much more upside in these European oil plays as their recovery, hopefully, shows positive progress. Especially BP which just announced they are ahead of paying down their debt schedule. Will add to TSM, AMAT and ASML on pullback as I mentioned many times here too. In this environment I think being selective and have patience is imperative, there will always be buying opportunities.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by strettyend

Any clue what happened to PINS? Didn't see any news on the tape today

Below is what hit my screen today on PINS, I have no exposure and do not know the company well enough to comment. Looks like this Cleveland Research report and a recent run up caused it to correct/consolidate today.

Pinterest (NYSE:PINS) is 7.3% lower in the stock's worst one-day decline in weeks, alongside some inklings that the quarter may have fizzed at bit toward the end.
Cleveland Research says Q1 looks like it ended softer than mid-quarter expectations would indicate, and some agencies/partners noting a deceleration from Q4 levels.
And some omni-channel retailers are seeing Pinterest spending decelerating. That come amid chatter that Pinterest is not as good at campaign optimization as Snap, or growing as fast as Snap (SNAP -2.9%).
But agencies are still optimistic on long-term Pinterest prospects, and expect the company could benefit from the ongoing shifts around privacy and device IDs.
Recently, Evercore ISI praised Pinterest as a likely winner of a permanent pull-forward of ad budgets online, calling it "one of the best social commerce plays

[gabrielnovar]

Microstrategy/MSTR IMO could be one of the most explosive moves in the market. If bitcoin supply dries up and it 10x's. The move will come fast/hard we are talking 6 figure moves to find sellers.

MSTR effectively has 100% of the float short(80% is owned by institutions). and the float is barely 7-9 million shares. They won't be able to cover. Now is that sustainable long term...

but I think we see a 5-10k price of MSTR before we get a crypto/stock winter


Someone save this post for when the supply run hits due to Bitcoin ETF. lmao

[logo]

Sold the rest of my June LMT $400 calls at ~100% profit today. Was hoping to squeeze out another 30-50% with a push to 395 today, but I guess it wasn't in the cards. Long term I think this company is still undervalued, but after running up 15% over the past 4 weeks, it's probably going to take a breather even with stellar earnings (like LULU recently), or at minimum drop slightly in IV. I'll buy LEAPS on the next dip.

Now to deal with my FDX June calls...

[Frank McKay]

I can’t imagine this bull run continues much further. the S&P 500 has a P/E of 35.7. It has been that lofty only once in history—prior to the tech collapse in 2000. The surge were now seeing will come to an abrupt end in the not so distant future. What do you guys think? is it good time to ride this run or wait for a correction.

[logo]

You should see the talking stocks 2.0 thread for more on this.

[seand442]

At this point, is there anything that isn’t overvalued? Stocks, real estate, watches, crypto, GPUs.....

[peacocknation]

Anyone else here hoping oil and the oil majors rips in the next month or two?

[Frank McKay]

Originally Posted by logo

You should see the talking stocks 2.0 thread for more on this.

Will review. Thanks!

[Frank McKay]

Originally Posted by seand442

At this point, is there anything that isn’t overvalued? Stocks, real estate, watches, crypto, GPUs.....

Agreed. It’s out of control. How to benefit?