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Old 31 March 2020, 02:49 AM   #4471
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We are going to hear every story about the 28 year-old marathon runner or the 35 year-old power lifter who got this virus and became very ill. What we won't hear about are the 100 people under 50 with no underlying health conditions who got it and had flu-like symptoms before recovering. In general these stories about individual cases, whether the result was good or bad, are not helpful. They either generate a false sense of security or unwarranted fear/panic. What we need are a large set of statistics broken down by age range with specifics about the types of symptoms people have experienced. Even that data must be broken down by those without chronic health conditions vs those with chronic health conditions.


I think you are right about people driven by coverage of the unusually bad cases of seemingly healthy people being severely impacted.

For the analytic people, data driven reports make a lot of sense. How many are driven by logic is an unknown variable to me.

For the vast majority of the world who aren’t data driven, the anecdotal outlier stories can drive panicked behavior.

How we drive logical actions with that group is also unknown. So officials are often compelled to use tighter controls to contain their local slice of the pandemic.


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Old 31 March 2020, 03:45 AM   #4472
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We are going to hear every story about the 28 year-old marathon runner or the 35 year-old power lifter who got this virus and became very ill. What we won't hear about are the 100 people under 50 with no underlying health conditions who got it and had flu-like symptoms before recovering. In general these stories about individual cases, whether the result was good or bad, are not helpful. They either generate a false sense of security or unwarranted fear/panic. What we need are a large set of statistics broken down by age range with specifics about the types of symptoms people have experienced. Even that data must be broken down by those without chronic health conditions vs those with chronic health conditions.

It looks like the numbers are getting better in the US


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Old 31 March 2020, 03:55 AM   #4473
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It looks like the numbers are getting better in the US


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It sure does!!!
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Old 31 March 2020, 03:58 AM   #4474
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a friend of mine from Germany emailed me and asked me why so many people dying in the US when in Germany the death rate is a much much lower. I explained to her that people cannot be tested and they linger with the virus far too long before being able to get treatment.
May have been better to explain that Germany has a nearly identical death rate, not "much much lower".

Having four times as many people spread across 25 times as much land mass is a factor.

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Excellent post. My only comment is it was discussed here that Germany has a different system for classification of Covid deaths that results in its lower numbers. Not wrong but different.
Wow... they may actually have a higher true mortality rate, not just nearly the same. Interesting.
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Old 31 March 2020, 04:10 AM   #4475
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It looks like the numbers are getting better in the US


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How so? I check data every day at 4:30 CST. Yesterday marked 450 deaths for that period and 14,000 new cases. What numbers are looking better (seriously- I need some good news)
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Old 31 March 2020, 04:15 AM   #4476
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how so? I check data every day at 4:30 cst. Yesterday marked 450 deaths for that period and 14,000 new cases. What numbers are looking better (seriously- i need some good news)
+1
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Old 31 March 2020, 04:19 AM   #4477
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How so? I check data every day at 4:30 CST. Yesterday marked 450 deaths for that period and 14,000 new cases. What numbers are looking better (seriously- I need some good news)

I was looking at recoveries vs new cases,granted it’s a small number,but it’s getting a little larger everyday. Again only looking at US numbers


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Old 31 March 2020, 04:27 AM   #4478
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Those can mislead. Italy and Spain have good recoveries vs. new cases numbers, because they lack the ability to test those with mild symptoms. They just send them home to self quarantine and don’t count them.

The number I like to watch is tests given per day. The US was over 100k for a few days, but dipped to 95k yesterday. Hopefully we get that back up.

Right now, 1 out of every 200 NYC resident has the virus. At least. Given that S. Korea is the only nation to fight back an outbreak (I don’t trust China’s numbers), maybe they should try what the Koreans did. They could assign a few hotels as quarantine dormitories and ask positive tested people to go there for a couple of weeks.
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Old 31 March 2020, 04:37 AM   #4479
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Those can mislead. Italy and Spain have good recoveries vs. new cases numbers, because they lack the ability to test those with mild symptoms. They just send them home to self quarantine and don’t count them.

The number I like to watch is tests given per day. The US was over 100k for a few days, but dipped to 95k yesterday. Hopefully we get that back up.

Right now, 1 out of every 200 NYC resident has the virus. At least. Given that S. Korea is the only nation to fight back an outbreak (I don’t trust China’s numbers), maybe they should try what the Koreans did. They could assign a few hotels as quarantine dormitories and ask positive tested people to go there for a couple of weeks.
Cuomo says it is doubling every 6 days now, instead of every 2 days. That has gone up over the last week consistently.
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Old 31 March 2020, 05:22 AM   #4480
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The US extension of guidelines through April followed two studies that reached the same numbers regarding US timeline and numbers for infections, mortality and impact on heath system, one by the White House CV Taskforce and one by Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. Here is the link to the article.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ge%2Fstory-ans

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Old 31 March 2020, 06:21 AM   #4481
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Those can mislead. Italy and Spain have good recoveries vs. new cases numbers, because they lack the ability to test those with mild symptoms. They just send them home to self quarantine and don’t count them.

The number I like to watch is tests given per day. The US was over 100k for a few days, but dipped to 95k yesterday. Hopefully we get that back up.

Right now, 1 out of every 200 NYC resident has the virus. At least. Given that S. Korea is the only nation to fight back an outbreak (I don’t trust China’s numbers), maybe they should try what the Koreans did. They could assign a few hotels as quarantine dormitories and ask positive tested people to go there for a couple of weeks.
Plus Masks.

Masks are coming to the general public in a complete reversal of the phony and terrible advice from the WHO (stop listening to them at once) and others.

Widespread use of Masks are an absolute must.

https://www.aei.org/research-product...-to-reopening/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2w9M6K9vSUM

I had a phone conference today with my doctor about unrelated stuff, but of course this came up and she told me get masks (already did) as soon as you can.

It is vital due to asymptomatic viral shedding and how much #$%$ comes out of our filthy mouths just by speaking. That doesn't just drop to the floor, it floats around and ends up in lodged in your throat and then the invasion of your body begins.
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Old 31 March 2020, 06:30 AM   #4482
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Plus Masks.

Masks are coming to the general public in a complete reversal of the phony and terrible advice from the WHO (stop listening to them at once) and others.

Widespread use of Masks are an absolute must.

https://www.aei.org/research-product...-to-reopening/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2w9M6K9vSUM

I had a phone conference today with my doctor about unrelated stuff, but of course this came up and she told me get masks (already did) as soon as you can.

It is vital due to asymptomatic viral shedding and how much #$%$ comes out of our filthy mouths just by speaking. That doesn't just drop to the floor, it floats around and ends up in lodged in your throat and then the invasion of your body begins.
Where would you propose we pickup a mask from that wouldn't hinder the shipments getting to the medical professionals and those that need it with a higher priority? Not trying to come off rude but I sincerely would like to know.
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Old 31 March 2020, 06:35 AM   #4483
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Covid-19 is a serious topic. However, sometimes a little humor helps. So....

Here is a lint to a story about a scientist who was trying to invent a magnetic necklace to stop people from touching their face. He wound up going to the ER to get a magnet out of his nose....

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-52094804

Stay safe.
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Old 31 March 2020, 06:40 AM   #4484
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Where would you propose we pickup a mask from that wouldn't hinder the shipments getting to the medical professionals and those that need it with a higher priority? Not trying to come off rude but I sincerely would like to know.
Yes. Supply is a problem. But I have read that a bandana may be better than nothing.

If you google it, you will several articles. Here is the quote from the CDC website.

I]HCP use of homemade masks:
In settings where facemasks are not available, HCP might use homemade masks (e.g., bandana, scarf) for care of patients with COVID-19 as a last resort. However, homemade masks are not considered PPE, since their capability to protect HCP is unknown. Caution should be exercised when considering this option. Homemade masks should ideally be used in combination with a face shield that covers the entire front (that extends to the chin or below) and sides of the face.[/I]

Stay safe.
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Old 31 March 2020, 06:42 AM   #4485
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Yes. Supply is a problem. But I have read that a bandana may be better than nothing.

If you google it, you will several articles. Here is the quote from the CDC website.

I]HCP use of homemade masks:
In settings where facemasks are not available, HCP might use homemade masks (e.g., bandana, scarf) for care of patients with COVID-19 as a last resort. However, homemade masks are not considered PPE, since their capability to protect HCP is unknown. Caution should be exercised when considering this option. Homemade masks should ideally be used in combination with a face shield that covers the entire front (that extends to the chin or below) and sides of the face.[/I]

Stay safe.
I'll do some more digging, thanks H!
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Old 31 March 2020, 06:46 AM   #4486
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Where would you propose we pickup a mask from that wouldn't hinder the shipments getting to the medical professionals and those that need it with a higher priority? Not trying to come off rude but I sincerely would like to know.
At this point you will probably need to make your own.

https://www.wired.com/story/its-time...ca-masks-work/

In due time, there will be more basic surgical masks coming online than the more involved N-95, but they will help with the spread...even if it's just a reduction of innoculum instead of a total blockage, it's better than nothing it appears.

It's a shame the west didn't get it together and crank up the masks in Jan. We see the Asian countries on the TV with most people going about their day in a pandemic with masks on...and rather than say...yes, they are on the right track...we go...NOPE...Don't need those....now we are an even bigger pickle...that is my biggest frustration with this. Solutions were paraded in front of our eyes everyday in the beginning of this...and they are dismissed or ignored completely.

When was the last time you saw a disinfection crew in NYC fogging the streets? i have read the MTA is doing nice work on the subways...but I haven't seen stuff

Like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWqCUpKTUa8

They have drones doing it in Dubai:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eP40sS5EcLU

If I'm wrong, I'd love to be.
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Old 31 March 2020, 06:46 AM   #4487
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I'll do some more digging, thanks H!
Face shields apparently may help also, like for welding or chainsawing.

Stay safe.
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Old 31 March 2020, 06:51 AM   #4488
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Face shields apparently may help also, like for welding or chainsawing.

Stay safe.
The thought of wearing my welding mask to the grocery store did cross my mind...though I have to think that would cause some legitimate concern amongst the other shoppers
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Old 31 March 2020, 06:58 AM   #4489
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Face shields apparently may help also, like for welding or chainsawing.

Stay safe.
Just ordered...I assumed the Chubacca one would be less hygienic?
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Old 31 March 2020, 07:03 AM   #4490
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The thought of wearing my welding mask to the grocery store did cross my mind...though I have to think that would cause some legitimate concern amongst the other shoppers
I know you were being humorous, but this is a legitimate problem in the US - there is currently a stigma associated with wearing a mask. I have some N95 masks in storage that I bought several years ago but I've not worn them when out at the store. Why? Because I am a young(ish), healthy(ish) looking adult and I am concerned that it could literally cause others to become agitated if I were to be seen wearing a mask. It is the exact opposite in a number of the Asian countries - if you are seen without a mask in public you are being discourteous to others.

It is going to be tough to reverse this sentiment in the US after weeks and weeks of telling the public masks are not "recommended."
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Old 31 March 2020, 07:11 AM   #4491
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I know you were being humorous, but this is a legitimate problem in the US - there is currently a stigma associated with wearing a mask. I have some N95 masks in storage that I bought several years ago but I've not worn them when out at the store. Why? Because I am a young(ish), healthy(ish) looking adult and I am concerned that it could literally cause others to become agitated if I were to be seen wearing a mask. It is the exact opposite in a number of the Asian countries - if you are seen without a mask in public you are being discourteous to others.

It is going to be tough to reverse this sentiment in the US after weeks and weeks of telling the public masks are not "recommended."
Just my 2 cents, regardless of if there is a stigma or not...if you have the N95, I would certainly wear it. If it causes people to stay further away from you as a result, even more the better!

Wearing a welding mask or balaclava on the other hand, I think that would instill a different level of paranoia with the people around you.
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Old 31 March 2020, 07:13 AM   #4492
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I know you were being humorous, but this is a legitimate problem in the US - there is currently a stigma associated with wearing a mask. I have some N95 masks in storage that I bought several years ago but I've not worn them when out at the store. Why? Because I am a young(ish), healthy(ish) looking adult and I am concerned that it could literally cause others to become agitated if I were to be seen wearing a mask. It is the exact opposite in a number of the Asian countries - if you are seen without a mask in public you are being discourteous to others.

It is going to be tough to reverse this sentiment in the US after weeks and weeks of telling the public masks are not "recommended."
I completely agree. This is a complete #$%#$%#.

I don't know how they are going to spin this, but they will have to.

I would go ahead and wear the masks you have, if somebody doesn't like it, too bad.
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Old 31 March 2020, 07:14 AM   #4493
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The thought of wearing my welding mask to the grocery store did cross my mind...though I have to think that would cause some legitimate concern amongst the other shoppers
Welding mask would be
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Old 31 March 2020, 07:14 AM   #4494
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Passed the Howell testing location today, there was like no one there and it was open?

https://myinstadochowell.com/coronavirus-testing/

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Old 31 March 2020, 07:14 AM   #4495
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Just my 2 cents, regardless of if there is a stigma or not...if you have the N95, I would certainly wear it. If it causes people to stay further away from you as a result, even more the better!

Wearing a welding mask or balaclava on the other hand, I think that would instill a different level of paranoia with the people around you.
I tend to agree. Even here in the central US we are just about at the point where I am going to start wearing them, others' opinions be damned.

I think if the rumors are true and the CDC is about to reverse course on masks we will see people wearing all sorts of "creative" things in public.
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Old 31 March 2020, 07:47 AM   #4496
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You know that the mask, or not mask, question is going to be difficult for people to stomach.

There are 2 reasons for masking up.
1) protect yourself from others.
2) protect others from you.

The N95 would do both but is very difficult to buy now.

A simple old-fashioned surgical mask will accomplish #2 by blocking sneezes and coughs. But it isn’t very effective at #1. Like some have said, better than nothing.

A bandana or fishing neck gaiter works well enough on #2 also. The advantage of either is they block sunlight so you don’t get burned.

I’ve got a couple of these in different colors.



Just wash them after use.


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Old 31 March 2020, 07:55 AM   #4497
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You know that the mask, or not mask, question is going to be difficult for people to stomach.

There are 2 reasons for masking up.
1) protect yourself from others.
2) protect others from you.

The N95 would do both but is very difficult to buy now.

A simple old-fashioned surgical mask will accomplish #2 by blocking sneezes and coughs. But it isn’t very effective at #1. Like some have said, better than nothing.

A bandana or fishing neck gaiter works well enough on #2 also. The advantage of either is they block sunlight so you don’t get burned.

I’ve got a couple of these in different colors.



Just wash them after use.


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Great suggestion.

i really suggest getting ahead of this and secure what you can before the CDC pulls the rug out from everyone and changes their tune on the masks officially.
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Old 31 March 2020, 08:12 AM   #4498
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Welding mask made by miller to control welding fumes and noxious gases. These are P100 masks and filter out 98.9% of particles. There annoying to breath in all day, but good for a store trip. Helps keep others away from me, without actually having to say something. There about $30 on ebay I just happened to have bought 3 about a year ago, but dont seem any harder to get than a bandana. Stay safe all!

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Old 31 March 2020, 08:18 AM   #4499
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Certainly our wonderful medical professionals are true heroes and I cannot even fathom the sacrifice they're making on a daily basis. However by the end of this there are going to be many, many people infected with this virus who will have limited or no interaction with a healthcare system. The stories about what an ICU doctor or nurse are witnessing right now are horrifying and I think they do have value as they get people to take this seriously, but in the end they will not be representative of what the majority of those infected will experience. The doctor or nurse can only convey what they have witnessed, and it is inherent that they will witness the worst of the worst.
I agree with you on every point. It does seem that until people started seeing the horrific images and numbers from the hospitals, many didn't take the pandemic seriously.

Regarding the age distribution of victims who die from Covid-19, I rarely, if ever, took any solace when telling a family in the ER that their older loved one had died in comparison to their younger loved one. I learned that love was love. Loss was loss. From a public health standpoint, age at death distributions and percentages can produce economic and productivity statistics. But from an individual standpoint, deep loss is immeasurable regardless of age or prior health.
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Old 31 March 2020, 08:22 AM   #4500
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I agree with you on every point. It does seem that until people started seeing the horrific images and numbers from the hospitals, many didn't take the pandemic seriously.

Regarding the age distribution of victims who die from Covid-19, I rarely, if ever, took any solace when telling a family in the ER that their older loved one had died in comparison to their younger loved one. I learned that love was love. Loss was loss. From a public health standpoint, age at death distributions and percentages can produce economic and productivity statistics. But from an individual standpoint, deep loss is immeasurable regardless of age or prior health.
You are a fabulous man.
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