the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[rowdy3]

Moto gp un Austin has been postponed til nov.

[singe89]

Coronavirus Lecture With Dr. Amesh Adalja, Johns Hopkins Senior Scholar, Tepper Alumnus

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZhYc...ature=youtu.be

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Brett, my friend, let me respectfully respond, agree and disagree with you.



Please clarify. Are you talking about (1) Wuhan style barricaded, (2) voluntary self quarantine for those who are sick or who have been exposed, or (3) travel restrictions imposed by countries such as the US.

As far as Wuhan style, my question question to you is what do you think would have happened in China if China had not locked Wuhan down? Same question on repatriations from Wuhan. Should they have been cleared through customs to take a taxi home? Same questions on the cruise ships, should they disembark and go to their family doctor for follow up without any screening?

As far as voluntary quarantines, my question is what do you think would happen if sick people went to work and carried on like normal. It is not uncommon for people to go to work with a cold or a sore throat. Should people who have CV but feel good enough to go to work just hop on the train and soldier on?

As far as travel restrictions imposed by the US, what do you think would have happened if we had not stopped people entering from Wuhan?

My opinion is that failing to even try to contain spread would lead to massive spread of a virus which we understand little and currently have no vaccine. And this would lead to three things.

First, the raw number (not percentage) of seriously sick people would exponentially increase.

Second, the health care system would be overrun. This would mean those persons who got very ill would not get the care they need not to become a mortality static. And this would drive mortality rates up. It would also mean that healthcare would not be available to those who need it for other reasons such as car accidents.

Third, the resulting panic and economic turmoil would make the current situation look like a walk in the park.



Agree and disagree.

1. Many less developed countries have only rudimentary healthcare. They are not prepared.

2. Here in the US I see several problems.

First, the testing fiasco. But now that private industry is stepping in and states are taking a leading role (per CDC) this looks to be improving.

Second, we do not have enough stocks of protective gear for medical professionals and since we outsourced production to other countries it is hard to remedy this.

Third, we do not have enough stocks for citizens of rudimentary cleaning supplies such as hand sanitizer. Where pray tell you buy a bottle? You can't.

Fourth, early on the protocols for testing were contradictory. Test if you were exposed? Or test if you become symptomatic. My own opinion is that this was based on the lack of kits. But who knows.

Fifth, the government gave a contradictory message: It's a serious health issue vs. it's not even as bad as the common cold. This contrary messaging does not instill confidence. And a lack of confidence leads to fear and panic.

These are not end of the world problems. But they would have been easy to remedy.

QUOTE=Patton250;10443748]
I’ve learned to not take the media seriously on any of that. Let me put it this way if NBC said the sun would rise this morning I’d be pretty scared that wasn’t gonna happen.

If you put all media regardless of political persuasion in this category. I agree with you. They exist by and large to turn a profit. No clicks. No profit. But some still try.




QUOTE=Patton250;10443748]
If world government and media are so determined to grind the economy to a halt [/QUOTE]

I agree that nothing sells a click like "DOW tanks." So, the blood in the water syndrome is self fulfilling. But I no not agree that there is a conspiracy to tank the economy by the media. Frankly, I do not think they are smart enough to coordinate ordering pizza, let alone form a functioning conspiracy.

And as far as "world government" I am at a loss to understand who or what body you are taking about. Further, I do not think any world leaders want to see their economy tank.

Personally, I till don't know what to make of this threat. But off to work I go (with my hand sanitizer I purchased in January). Be safe. [QUOTE=Patton250;10443748]

I think you and I are very close on our thoughts toward this. Definitely someone sick should not go to work but that includes a common cold or the flu. It’s just common sense as well as polite. I don’t know how to answer your questions on Quarantine. That’s why I was asking. I have no idea what would’ve happened in China have they not quarantined. I do know the whole planet has this now so it has to be all over China as well. Perhaps they delayed it some? I really don’t know my friend. Either way things are coming down as far as it’s spreading over there. Every news source is saying that so I doubt the Chinese are lying about it.

I also agree with you on the media. I think it doesn’t matter what political persuasion they are they all need to sensationalize things to get more views or Internet clicks. They absolutely also don’t care what that does to the economy. That is my personal opinion on it.

I think I’ve made it clear on this thread what my main concern about all this is and that’s the economy. I realize that’s made some people angry with me because they feel like I’m not caring about the health of people but I promise you that’s just not the case. I believe from what I’ve read and seen this virus is nowhere near as dangerous to the health of the vast majority of people as the media is making it out to be. I believe we won’t even be talking about it a couple months from now. But I also know for a fact what a world wide recession or even worse depression will do to the average working person long term and that my friends will be devastating.

As far as the virus goes we will know if I’m wrong in the next month(s) or so. If I’m wrong then there should be hundreds of thousands if not millions of confirmed sick people in the United States with tens of thousands of deaths. If that comes true then the the damage we are doing to the economy today economy won’t matter and will be the least of our worries. Also I hope everyone knows I absolutely advocate using hand sanitizer, washing hands and staying away from non-sick people. These are common sense precautions that I believe everyone should take anyway to help stay healthy.

I’m glad we are able to discuss this here. Everyone’s been pretty reasonable and I appreciate that. I hope you guys feel I have been also.

[mgsooner]

Originally Posted by Moggo

Has this been posted?

Pretty harrowing.

Coronavirus: 'Stop saying it's a bad flu' - Doctor fighting Italy outbreak shares dramatic account http://news.sky.com/story/coronaviru...e-war-11954229

I think it's becoming increasingly clear that no matter your age, you don't want to get this. If you do there's a decent chance that at the very least you are gonna have a real bad time.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by mgsooner

I think it's becoming increasingly clear that no matter your age, you don't want to get this. If you do there's a decent chance that at the very least you are gonna have a real bad time.

My COO's wife has just been house quarantined.

Two kids in her school have tested positive. Her school is close for 2 weeks.

Two of my team are at the conference I mentioned last week. I am absolutely 100% certain that multiple people there have it.

If it goes down, it goes down.

My wife needs medication every 5 weeks to stay alive. It is a 5 hour infusion that must be done at a medical center.

I am not at all worried about the virus itself. I am very worried about the panic.

[pickettt]

Originally Posted by superdog

I am not at all worried about the virus itself. I am very worried about the panic.

I see we share more than investment strategies

[77T]

Originally Posted by superdog

I am not at all worried about the virus itself. I am very worried about the panic.

Seth
Best wishes to your staff, your wife and you to keep up your spirit of positive progress and hope you’re making it through each day in good spirits.


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[Patton250]

Originally Posted by superdog

I am not at all worried about the virus itself. I am very worried about the panic.

Exactly

[uscmatt99]

Originally Posted by Moggo

Has this been posted?

Pretty harrowing.

Coronavirus: 'Stop saying it's a bad flu' - Doctor fighting Italy outbreak shares dramatic account http://news.sky.com/story/coronaviru...e-war-11954229


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Here is a link to a more complete version of a physician's account from Bergamo. Truly frightening, especially the description of the calm before the storm and subsequent controlled chaos. Pretty incredible that they converted a modern hospital essentially into a field hospital on the fly.

https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/co...ergamo_in_the/

I commend the folks in the trenches. If it were to get to that point even in a few pockets of the US, it will be devastating. I'm confident providers and the communities will rise to the occasion if needed as we always do, but I'd prefer to avoid this altogether.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by pickettt

I see we share more than investment strategies

Originally Posted by 77T

Seth
Best wishes to your staff, your wife and you to keep up your spirit of positive progress and hope you’re making it through each day in good spirits.


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Originally Posted by Patton250

Exactly

thanks guys.

if nothing else, I am on fire. good and bad, but I am bundle of "get it done, make it happen". my team is a little nervous. but in a good way.

I will keep you guys updated.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by superdog

My wife needs medication every 5 weeks to stay alive. It is a 5 hour infusion that must be done at a medical center.

I am not at all worried about the virus itself. I am very worried about the panic.

Best wishes for all of us

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Do you think they’re going to get rid of tradeshows after all this is said and done? My industry is still doing tradeshows. They haven’t canceled even one of them yet. Now that doesn’t mean they won’t and they probably will but this very week three of my partners are attending shows that have more than 1000 people attending. Of course those are small but we did go to the biggest one in early February that had over 70,000 people from all over the world.

I wanted to address this lockdown/Quarantine. I still can’t understand how this will accomplish anything other then delaying the inevitable. Those providence is not under lockdown anymore. At least not completely anyway according to a few of my sources there. Are you saying they did it out of the gate to prevent it from spreading quickly at first? I apologize because I truly don’t understand.

I think the trade associations will still try to keep the shows going, but companies and corporations will stop attending them...they just aren't worth it. Getting specific to your industry, I know plenty of people in the biz who went to AHR and they said it was a bust for what their companies spent. It's been like that for awhile, just like Basel is. The local ACCA tradeshows have been fading over the years...every year less and less vendor participation and turnout. So this might be the demise, especially as the younger generation becomes more involved...they are like "why are we doing this"? Same with Watch dealer shows...They are fading out too..just too much money and effort to attend with little ROI...

As for the quarantine, there is much fixation on the % of people dying from the virus...well it's just like warfare...the problem facing an army isn't their dead soldiers, it's the burden wounded soldiers cause on the everything. The sick people who need treatment will overwhelm the healthcare services who aren't set up to handle sick people in great numbers, so they have to slow down the assault of the virus to keep the healthcare system from busting. If people run around willy nilly spreading the virus, the hospitals will potentially get overrun...then nobody gets treatment and that is bad news.

So, unfortunately something will suffer. The virus is here. It is contagious. People will get sick, and the numbers that will be severely ill, that 10-15% is enough to break the axles...

So, either you lock everything down and strangle the economy or you let it go and bust the healthcare system. That's pretty much it.

[Knappo 1307]

Originally Posted by superdog

My wife needs medication every 5 weeks to stay alive. It is a 5 hour infusion that must be done at a medical center.

I am not at all worried about the virus itself. I am very worried about the panic.

Wish you and your wife the best brother. You're are totally right, the panic could be worse than the problem. Stay well.

[Bigblu10]

Apparently hospitals in the USA nationwide are already at capacity.

Not sure how all those who will need medical care will be accommodated?

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by Bigblu10

Apparently hospitals in the USA nationwide are already at capacity.

Not sure how all those who will need medical care will be accommodated?

This is really what it comes down to...there isn't enough medical capacity to handle the casualties unless you back off the assault of the virus by limiting exposure.

[BT1985]

The only thing there is to fear is fear itself......and Coronavirus.




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[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Bigblu10

Apparently hospitals in the USA nationwide are already at capacity.

Not sure how all those who will need medical care will be accommodated?

You’re saying that all the hospitals in the United States are currently filled with patients to their capacity at this moment? From what? It’s not coronavirus. Not yet anyway. Now I have to start making phone calls.

[Raypep]

Originally Posted by Bigblu10

Apparently hospitals in the USA nationwide are already at capacity.

Not sure how all those who will need medical care will be accommodated?

I'm 99% sure in my state that is not true. We however only have 3 confirmed cases.

[Star Ferry]

Originally Posted by Bigblu10

Apparently hospitals in the USA nationwide are already at capacity.

Not sure how all those who will need medical care will be accommodated?

Is this because people with common viruses are suspecting coronavirus and then showing up at emergency rooms? I don't get why they're full

[77T]

Originally Posted by Bigblu10

Apparently hospitals in the USA nationwide are already at capacity.

Not sure how all those who will need medical care will be accommodated?

Are you saying all 6146 U.S. Hospitals have every one of their 792,417 beds occupied?

I’m not saying it’s impossible, just unlikely. Please share your source.


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[904VT]

Originally Posted by superdog

904VT.

What you say has perfect validity. Thank you for speaking so clearly.

I agree with your sentiment. And if there were no preparation it would be a different story. I think what frustrates me, and some like me, is the level of panic this has been taken to.

Yes, it is very important to prepare. Way back in this thread I stated where I stocked up. I have food and TP and everything else to last me months. I kid you not...I am very much prepared. Everything is in plastic bins ready to go.

The level of where we are is ridiculous. Shutting down a country is ridiculous.

Why are they doing it? Cancel culture is why. People are so terrified that the peanut gallery will come in after the fact and cancel them because they did not do enough.

So, instead they are doing too much. Our news media in the US is a classic example of this. They love it because it gives them product. With no product they have no viewers. With no viewers they have no advertising and no revenue.

This is a dream for them. And IMHO yes, they created this culture. It is easy to second guess someone after the fact. It is easy to make the right decisions once the situation has unfolded.

By far, the panic is doing more damage than the virus. Again, I agree we need to be prepared. We need to be vigilant and we need to be alert to more potential risk.

But we also need to be level headed and calm. Calm helps every situation develop into a better situation. Panic does the exact opposite.

Stay safe Seth and good luck to you and your colleagues.

I agree, there are some that seemed to have capitalized on this tragic outbreak for their own self-interests, which is a shame.

[Letsgodiving]

I don't know anything about the capacity of the US hospital system at present but I have heard it mentioned that the authorities are trying to delay the spread of C-19 as long as possible because the regular flu as been pretty bad this year and they are trying to get past the worst of that in order to have more capacity to handle the coronavirus.

[BigBlue1]

State of Emergency Declared here in Mass.

[Moggo]

Originally Posted by BigBlue1

State of Emergency Declared here in Mass.

What does a state of emergency entail? I’m in the UK so excuse my lack of understanding.


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[904VT]

Originally Posted by Moggo

What does a state of emergency entail? I’m in the UK so excuse my lack of understanding.


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It varies state to state according to their laws, but essentially gives the State government power to mobilize their national guard units among other things.

[Megalobyte]

Originally Posted by Moggo

What does a state of emergency entail? I’m in the UK so excuse my lack of understanding.


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Any state will declare this if possible in order to get help in place from the federal govt. if needed.

[Silvio_86]

The point is that if you get it... 20% is the chance you need to stay in hospital.... 5% you need automated breathing system and oxygen.... this is the drama.... health system here in italy, as worldwide, has a limited number of beds with such instruments... so hundredths of people every day adding is not good... and then you need the machinery for at least 1 month. That's the point... Anyway still alive here in Maranello ... no virus and no fever :)

[Fredrik]

Originally Posted by mgsooner

I think it's becoming increasingly clear that no matter your age, you don't want to get this. If you do there's a decent chance that at the very least you are gonna have a real bad time.

That is not the picture I have. So far in Italy all dead were older than 65 with most of them older than 85. The younger you are, the more likely you will have mild to no symptoms, so far no one under the age of 10 has died. If you have severe health issues or smoke, then you need to be careful.

This is the opposite of the Spanish flu which mostly killed the young. It will most likely not have a large impact other than causing unneeded panic everywhere including the markets in my opinion.

Let's just ride it out until spring, the warmer weather will help a lot since winter is optimal for spreading of this type of virus. Just make sure your older relatives stay reasonably isolated if possible.

[Tommyk]

State of emergency is just another way states get to make certain decisions independently and also open the door for federal aid. California did it last week after 1 person died

[Moggo]

Thanks for the state of emergency explanations, sounds more dramatic than it needs to be.

We’ve just had 9 new cases in Wales, not many but we are a very small country.


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