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Old 10 November 2023, 12:12 AM   #31
Calatrava r
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I also agree if you have to have this watch, just buy one wherever you can find one at the best possible price. If you are going to spend a lot of money on stuff from an AD, anyway, being on the list for this watch and getting it is just an added bonus. To deliberately spend a lot of money on things you do not really want just to get this watch at retail and wait however long, makes no sense.
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Old 10 November 2023, 03:12 AM   #32
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From experience, a genuine and good friendly relationship with the sales manager of the AD is very important and is what I believe gets you in line.

However, your spend history is what the AD owner likely needs to see to authorize the sales manager to release the watch to you when it finally arrives in the store. This is what happened with my Daytona earlier this year.

The sales manager went to bat for me for almost a whole week.
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Old 10 November 2023, 04:12 AM   #33
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All depends on the AD
True, and depends on your relationship with the AD. I think at least 6 figures spend for most people.
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Old 10 November 2023, 05:22 AM   #34
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I got a few Daytonas from the AD, including Panda, my advise to you would be if you don’t have a good relationship with management, buy grey
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Old 10 November 2023, 05:26 AM   #35
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Originally Posted by Linuxpenguins View Post
Coming soon: Average spend history for a SS Blue Sky Dweller.

Three of the most highly coveted pieces Rolex manufacture. You need a six figure plus spend history, unless you get extremely lucky.
Luckily the Sky Dweller is too big for my wrist, so it's off the table for me.
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Old 10 November 2023, 05:27 AM   #36
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Heyyyyy El Cerrito, CA resident here also

Spend history for my black dial daytona 116500 was $44500 at the Tourneau in San Francisco dating from 2016 to 2020. My sales associate tells me she wont allocate me a white dial at all based upon having a steel daytona in my purchase history; this is per their current management. She continues to tell me she was very lucky to allocate me my 116500 before the 2021 craze as she wouldn't be able to in this current market.
I can't get myself to go to that AD. It's too sketchy in that area. Now that it's closed/moved, maybe I'll hit them up, but it's too late in the game anyway.
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Old 10 November 2023, 05:39 AM   #37
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Originally Posted by 4reRlxGuy View Post
I'm at 23 months and $155K spent and nothing yet?
Just buy grey and save $110k
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Old 10 November 2023, 06:27 AM   #38
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It may be outdated, but there was an article (I believe BYT) that stated the general margin for ADs is 40%. So the ranges provided appear accurate.

The math also pencils to support the theory that ADs are willing to discount more on PM pieces.

100% agree on the opex comments - these ADs have expenses, which is why they benefit the most from hype as they can bundle desirable pieces with engagement rings and other jewelry at a 70-90% margin.
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Old 10 November 2023, 06:29 AM   #39
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My friend told me around 100k-150k usd and 2-3 years of waiting
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Old 10 November 2023, 07:18 AM   #40
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Just buy grey and save $110k
Yes! Why are people buying the equivalent of a very nicely-spec'd E-Class just for the hopes of buying a watch years in the future at retail? This, to me, is wildly insane. I'd rather pay a grey market upcharge now versus more over the years without certainty of delivery.
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My friend told me around 100k-150k usd and 2-3 years of waiting
LOLLLLL what this is insane, man.
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Old 10 November 2023, 08:13 AM   #41
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My friend told me around 100k-150k usd and 2-3 years of waiting
This was my experience as well. I only bought the watches that I wanted and the jewelry I was going to buy regardless. With that said, of course it’s very different depending on AD and geography so YMMV.
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Old 10 November 2023, 08:43 AM   #42
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Why spend $100,000+ from an AD when the watch is about $30,000 from a grey, tomorrow delivery?

What is so special about getting it from an AD?

The $70,000+ delta seems irrational, unless you really and truly wanted all that jewelry, were going to buy it anyway, and the watch is just a bonus.

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I've had an AD confirm $100-150k on jewelry spend for an allocation. No idea what watch history needs to be, but I expect multiple PM pieces at a minimum.

The comment above is IMO probably the most intelligent post on this topic, and I was thinking about starting a thread on this very position given there are likely a lot of folks on the fence regarding their grail.

I get it - NeVeR go gReY. And for what it's worth, you don't go "grey," you go "secondary." I thought that too when I bought my first piece from an AD who happened to have GMT IIs and Subs up to their eyeballs and Jomashop was selling them at 5% off MSRP.

That said, if a watch is your grail - such as the 116500/126500, I don't see why you would risk building a purchase history (whether watches or jewelry) just to hear the AD got their license pulled, or the boutique manager left and the new one is coming from a competitor and bringing their book, i.e., the list gets "reset."

Keeping in mind what is needed to MAYBE get an allocation of these watches, and unless you have an inordinate amount of discretionary capital to spend on marked up jewelry and watches, buying your grail at 2x MSRP in the grand scheme of things is arguably a better deal.
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Old 10 November 2023, 10:23 AM   #43
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50k for me, but I think I was lucky. About 6 months.
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Old 10 November 2023, 10:21 PM   #44
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Okay this is the same as the [Average Spend For a Pepsi??] thread, but what about the Daytona Panda? I know my chances are low, but exactly how low. I had a great relationship with an SA who left. So basically I have 2 ADs now that I have a shallow relationship with. With my old AD, there's decent spend history. But my new AD, whom I actually prefer, I only have purchased a entry level Tudor and serviced my GMT with them. When the grey prices fall low enough there's maybe a point where I go grey or forget it altogether. I purchased my black SS daytona for $28k about a year ago now, but always wish I could also have the panda.

Oh and for my old AD, I was told that SS Daytona are controlled by the owner of the AD and only he can allocate to a customer, so no chance for me as I don't know the owner. Probably the same story in my new AD...
How much are you willing to spend in extra, non-needed stuff? Or are you willing?
How long are you willing to schmooze with AD, to maybe get the slim chance to be privileged enough to hand them your $$$…to get a new white dial Daytona?
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Old 10 November 2023, 11:34 PM   #45
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OP Stella x2 and a Pepsi and a 36mm DJ fluted in blue sunburst dial.
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Old 11 November 2023, 12:37 AM   #46
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I'd say it all depends on the AD, I wouldn't like to spend so much extra on a piece.
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Old 12 November 2023, 12:01 PM   #47
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Just go grey.

The Panda goes to people they like. If you are not “in” , it won’t happen!
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Old 12 November 2023, 12:05 PM   #48
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Just go grey.

The Panda goes to people they like. If you are not “in” , it either happen!
Like as in significantly contributes to the boutique's top line.
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Old 12 November 2023, 12:17 PM   #49
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Way more money than just going grey. My local grey had a 2023 white dial Daytona that was full set with bezel protector and card dated 3 months old for $30k. Looked nice but I’m not a Daytona fan so I passed. They have a 2022 black Daytona for $25k right now. If I really wanted one, I’d just go grey and skip the AD headache.
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Old 12 November 2023, 01:29 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by ROlesorusLEX View Post
Why spend $100,000+ from an AD when the watch is about $30,000 from a grey, tomorrow delivery?

What is so special about getting it from an AD?

The $70,000+ delta seems irrational, unless you really and truly wanted all that jewelry, were going to buy it anyway, and the watch is just a bonus.

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The panda does nothing for me..but for those that want one, I totally agree with this.
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Old 12 November 2023, 04:10 PM   #51
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$40K for engagement ring (first purchase), then invited the sales lady to my wedding (keep enemies close, but keep AD sales reps closer), had panda 2 weeks after wedding but she had to go to the AD owner and beg him. I do not know the owner, he is out of state. This was Summer of 2019 when things were easier.

My advice is to go grey for any SS rolex. When you work the numbers grey is cheaper than buying stuff you dont want. That is what I did for 116520s white and black. I will go to grey for platona since 1. I will never get the call and 2. its only $30K over msrp in grey market. Will I get platona by spending $30K at an AD? No, plus you still have to actually buy the watch once it comes in decades from now.

I moved to a different city in 2020. I went into the new AD to me and asked about Daytonas. The owner of the AD who is there daily told me to just buy it in grey. I read between the lines and the more I thought about it over the years, he isnt wrong.

I see in the sales section on this forum that Raiders (black C Daytona) printed a $25K sale. $10K over msrp for a SS Daytona? All day long.

There is a common theme with those who buy grey = "some can afford not to wait" but which is really cheaper in the long run? Consider the timing element as well.
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Old 12 November 2023, 04:44 PM   #52
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There is a lot of pain in this thread.

Like others have said, just go grey.

This video proves a lot of the $100K+ spend numbers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CeS3wdW1UOU
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Old 13 November 2023, 02:53 AM   #53
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20k 5 years and still waiting. Refuses to pay over retail.
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Old 13 November 2023, 03:08 AM   #54
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$40K for engagement ring (first purchase), then invited the sales lady to my wedding (keep enemies close, but keep AD sales reps closer), had panda 2 weeks after wedding but she had to go to the AD owner and beg him. I do not know the owner, he is out of state. This was Summer of 2019 when things were easier.

My advice is to go grey for any SS rolex. When you work the numbers grey is cheaper than buying stuff you dont want. That is what I did for 116520s white and black. I will go to grey for platona since 1. I will never get the call and 2. its only $30K over msrp in grey market. Will I get platona by spending $30K at an AD? No, plus you still have to actually buy the watch once it comes in decades from now.

I moved to a different city in 2020. I went into the new AD to me and asked about Daytonas. The owner of the AD who is there daily told me to just buy it in grey. I read between the lines and the more I thought about it over the years, he isnt wrong.

I see in the sales section on this forum that Raiders (black C Daytona) printed a $25K sale. $10K over msrp for a SS Daytona? All day long.

There is a common theme with those who buy grey = "some can afford not to wait" but which is really cheaper in the long run? Consider the timing element as well.

Well said.


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Old 13 November 2023, 12:56 PM   #55
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$40K for engagement ring (first purchase), then invited the sales lady to my wedding (keep enemies close, but keep AD sales reps closer), had panda 2 weeks after wedding but she had to go to the AD owner and beg him. I do not know the owner, he is out of state. This was Summer of 2019 when things were easier.

My advice is to go grey for any SS rolex. When you work the numbers grey is cheaper than buying stuff you dont want. That is what I did for 116520s white and black. I will go to grey for platona since 1. I will never get the call and 2. its only $30K over msrp in grey market. Will I get platona by spending $30K at an AD? No, plus you still have to actually buy the watch once it comes in decades from now.

I moved to a different city in 2020. I went into the new AD to me and asked about Daytonas. The owner of the AD who is there daily told me to just buy it in grey. I read between the lines and the more I thought about it over the years, he isnt wrong.

I see in the sales section on this forum that Raiders (black C Daytona) printed a $25K sale. $10K over msrp for a SS Daytona? All day long.

There is a common theme with those who buy grey = "some can afford not to wait" but which is really cheaper in the long run? Consider the timing element as well.
Kudos for tweaking and pulling off the textbook "engagement ring bundle play." Nice extra touch, and happy the strategy payed off!

To your point about going secondary (which is really what we're talking about if being technical since 'grey' usually means no active warranty) - ALL. DAY. LONG.

I regularly mention on similar threads that if a certain watch like the 116500 or platona is someone's grail and they don't plan on spending a ton on jewelry or watches they don't love, going secondary usually makes sense as the reality is that the MSRP isn't the "real" price, and the premium to go secondary is most likely a deal when taking into consideration the spend requirement.
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Old 13 November 2023, 02:11 PM   #56
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There is a lot of pain in this thread.

Like others have said, just go grey.

This video proves a lot of the $100K+ spend numbers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CeS3wdW1UOU
Ranking seems pretty accurate, but 1mil+ spend to get a Daytona or Celebration OP? No way
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Old 13 November 2023, 02:23 PM   #57
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Coming soon: Average spend history for a SS Blue Sky Dweller.

Three of the most highly coveted pieces Rolex manufacture. You need a six figure plus spend history, unless you get extremely lucky.

What are the top 3?
Panda, blue sky and Pepsi?


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Old 13 November 2023, 02:56 PM   #58
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can you picture an outsider reading this thread? I'm sure their thoughts would be something like this: "wait...so you're not only saying the watch costs $15,000, but that i'd have to spend over $100,000 for the opportunity to possibly purchase it?"

It's pure comedy how we in the developed world are irrational. Perhaps we truly need and deserve the recession that everyone has been talking about.
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Old 13 November 2023, 03:48 PM   #59
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Last SA I asked about a Pepsi at retail told me:
Day Dates (plural) with Diamonds

This was pre Covid...

Cant imagine a Panda would be easier/cheaper
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