Are the days of seeing SS GMT, Daytona and Subs in AD display forever gone?

[replicator]

Been visiting AD’s for 10 years and have only ever seen one Daytona SS in stock on a walk-in, and it was in the backroom safe and not on display.

Safe to say Daytona will remain off the shelves for foreseeable future.

[Old Geezer]

In 2016 I purchased Sub LVc from the case. Regular date and no date subs were in the case too. I purchased BLNR from the case. A black GMTc, white and black EXP2 and multiple SS Subs sat there too. In 2017 I also purchased a Subc to gift a dear friend from the case. Since then, the AD's safe is the new case. You only get shown what they want to show you in the sport range. I've been shown coveted pieces from the safe simply held for big fish or as an incentive to close a deal on a PM.

[Weasel20]

My AD told me 6 years ago they were able to stock all of the stainless sports models, in fact he said they would keep a couple of each model in the safe. He doesn't think those days will return anytime in the foreseeable future. Certainly as long as the secondary market will demand over MSRP people will snatch up any sports model as there is no financial risk and only upside for most of these models.

[007_Omega]

Don't be fooled, an insane amount of hype, investment talk, and resellers are fueling the market. There will be a recession and this will correct the Rolex market. Rolex knows this themselves, hence they are not going to flood the market.

Will we see multiple SS GMTs in a case? I don't really remember going to store and ever seeing that. I mean sure, there may have been a couple of SS GMTs on display but it's not ever going to be like a datejust. Subs will become readily available or at least not too hard to get. They will sell for below retail on the used market (10-20%). Also, even if multiple SS models are available an AD will never put them all out for display. There will be 1 of each model on show and then replaced by a new one once sold. The ADs/Rolex themselves would never allow the Rolex brand to be tarnished by displaying too much product.

SS Daytonas will never be on display. This is the only watch that Rolex makes that I truly believe will never be sold under retail. Sure, if you are paying current market prices for it I believe you will be killed in the next couple of years but if you are buying retail your watch is safe.

We need to stop living in the moment. The more I talk to people with inside knowledge, not with Rolex but rather with greys/ADs, the more I know that this whole thing is a giant farce.

My advice, buy Rolex models that you actually want and do not pay a premium on any of them. Wait a couple of years for these hot models to settle. If there is an economic downturn and you can afford to pay for a $10k watch, ADs will treat with you a great deal of respect again when you walk through those doors. When the hype train comes back, you'll be a VIP.

Buy 5 digit models, with box/papers in great condition. That means either unpolished or properly polished. You'd be surprised at what a small percentage of 5-digit models are in that sort of condition.

6 digit models are extremely mass produced and most are in excellent shape.

[myporsche]

Originally Posted by 007_Omega

Don't be fooled, an insane amount of hype, investment talk, and resellers are fueling the market. There will be a recession and this will correct the Rolex market. Rolex knows this themselves, hence they are not going to flood the market.

Will we see multiple SS GMTs in a case? I don't really remember going to store and ever seeing that. I mean sure, there may have been a couple of SS GMTs on display but it's not ever going to be like a datejust. Subs will become readily available or at least not too hard to get. They will sell for below retail on the used market (10-20%). Also, even if multiple SS models are available an AD will never put them all out for display. There will be 1 of each model on show and then replaced by a new one once sold. The ADs/Rolex themselves would never allow the Rolex brand to be tarnished by displaying too much product.

SS Daytonas will never be on display. This is the only watch that Rolex makes that I truly believe will never be sold under retail. Sure, if you are paying current market prices for it I believe you will be killed in the next couple of years but if you are buying retail your watch is safe.

We need to stop living in the moment. The more I talk to people with inside knowledge, not with Rolex but rather with greys/ADs, the more I know that this whole thing is a giant farce.

My advice, buy Rolex models that you actually want and do not pay a premium on any of them. Wait a couple of years for these hot models to settle. If there is an economic downturn and you can afford to pay for a $10k watch, ADs will treat with you a great deal of respect again when you walk through those doors. When the hype train comes back, you'll be a VIP.

Buy 5 digit models, with box/papers in great condition. That means either unpolished or properly polished. You'd be surprised at what a small percentage of 5-digit models are in that sort of condition.

6 digit models are extremely mass produced and most are in excellent shape.

Great sound advice

[Texex]

Unless the Chinese stop buying Rolex than the demand won't drop. Rolex has not increased their production yet demand, mainly due to a growing middle class in in China, has sky rocketed. I bet Rolex sells more watches in China than Europe now second only to the US. Just my theory.

[bay-dweller]

Originally Posted by Rashid.bk

But a hard working middle-class normal person isn't going to just buy a car without seeing it or test driving it, or buy a $10k watch just because it's on youtube.
.

I don't know if that is right.

People lined up for the Tesla Model 3 without even being able to sit in the car.
People line up for the latest cell phones and sneakers.

I feel like consumer-mainia is on the rise.
People want what is not obtainable because it's not obtainable.
Hamilton tickets, Pappy Van Winkle, the Birkin bag, reservations at the hottest restaurant in your city, etc.

I expect Jaeger, Vacheron, and other premium brands without hype will suffer badly in the next recession. I expect Rolex, PP, and AP will never see low demand. There's an army of celebrities telling us to buy them and an army of media outlets telling us how cool they are.

[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by ArtNouveau

You saw a SS BLRO in the case six months before it was announced? Great stock!

Exactly....didn’t happen (maybe WG)

[Macnavara]

Originally Posted by Frank McKay

I’m curious. Do you guys see this as a temporary thing? Or gone for good are the days of walking into an AD and seeing multiple SS BLRO, Subs, Daytona’s sitting in the display windows readily available for sale.

I walked into shop in 2000 and had a choice of gmts from the window....walked out with a blro.
Ive been in and out of the trade for 30 years and never saw a ss daytona full stop.

[grimps]

Originally Posted by Tavli3

To all those that were buying Rolex back in 2008-9 what happened during the Great Recession?? Was there more supply? That will be our guide going forward. There will be another down turn at some point.

My guess is yes they will be available in the case at some point. Can't have empty cases forever! But to what extent and which models they become available is anyone's guess.

I went to my local AD in 2009 to buy a GMT , I had no previous history with them , they never had the GMT in stock that day but he told me they had a Daytona out the back i could look at if I'd like to see it and he asked me which colour dial id like . they had both the black and white dial in stock.
That was my first ever Rolex .
I also Saw a black dial Daytona in Amsterdam airport around 2010 but as I owned one already I never picked it up.

In 2014 I bough the Hulk in Dubai airport , the sales lady boxed it up for me then pulled another one out and put it back on display.
I also got a 500 pound discount when I bought the Batman again from my local dealer .

Up until around 4-5 years ago anything was available , I'm pleased I built up a good relationship with my local dealer around that time when nobody was buying for investment purposes , Now i get pretty much anything I want and have had 1st options on new releases over the last 2 years

[vicsdca]

Yes, if mechanical watches fall out of mainstream fashion like it happened for many accessories before, like hats and gloves for example. Quartz watches did not kill mechanical watches, but smart watches might. I think there will soon be very little reasons to put up with a mechanical watch.

[In-Cog-Neeto]

Originally Posted by vicsdca

Yes, if mechanical watches fall out of mainstream fashion like it happened for many accessories before, like hats and gloves for example. Quartz watches did not kill mechanical watches, but smart watches might. I think there will soon be very little reasons to put up with a mechanical watch.

There is no reason today to just ‘put up with a mechanical watch’ other than the simple fact you enjoy them

Which I think is why we are all still here

[Wrist King]

There will be an almighty crash as there always is. Grey dealers holding many examples of still in production watches that they paid RRP for will be unable to sell them at 2x list price, and will begin to undercut each other. This will feed a vicious cycle and soon enough they will be begging us to take them off them.

Patience grasshopper.

Sent from my SM-G9730 using Tapatalk

[Boaters]

Time will tell hopefully..

[10klakes]

Originally Posted by vicsdca

Yes, if mechanical watches fall out of mainstream fashion like it happened for many accessories before, like hats and gloves for example. Quartz watches did not kill mechanical watches, but smart watches might. I think there will soon be very little reasons to put up with a mechanical watch.

I had a discussion with a 20 year old recently about watches, luxury brands to be specific. What he told me is that many of his friends are very interested and some wear AP, PP, and Rolex- among others. None of them are into the watch making, history, or even using them to tell time. It’s jewelry and status.

The human desire to wear things to gain attention or display wealth/status isn’t going anywhere.

The up and comers are more aware of the brands and have more interest than my generation (I’m 39). so I think this new wave is going to carry over for many years to come.

[Old Geezer]

Originally Posted by In-Cog-Neeto

There is no reason today to just ‘put up with a mechanical watch’ other than the simple fact you enjoy them

Which I think is why we are all still here

This.

[wilzi]

I don't think I have seen a sub before, probably even less likely to see one in the future given the trend

_____
IG: watchradar_official

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by Frank McKay

I’m curious. Do you guys see this as a temporary thing? Or gone for good are the days of walking into an AD and seeing multiple SS BLRO, Subs, Daytona’s sitting in the display windows readily available for sale.

even if they were available, its probably smart to act like they are not.


If you ask about a sub, and they pull it out from the back you are far more likely to buy it vs seeing it sitting in a case as you will assume it will be there next week and the week after. Display case reduces urgency

[007_Omega]

Originally Posted by 10klakes

I had a discussion with a 20 year old recently about watches, luxury brands to be specific. What he told me is that many of his friends are very interested and some wear AP, PP, and Rolex- among others. None of them are into the watch making, history, or even using them to tell time. It’s jewelry and status.

The human desire to wear things to gain attention or display wealth/status isn’t going anywhere.

The up and comers are more aware of the brands and have more interest than my generation (I’m 39). so I think this new wave is going to carry over for many years to come.

This. The majority of the mechanical watch making world will die in my lifetime but companies like Rolex will survive as a symbol of status, luxury, artistry, and jewelry.

Trying to convince a kid that your $10k watch is a tool isn’t going to go too well.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[TswaneNguni]

In 20 years of collecting I have not seen many ss sports in AD display cases .Period.

[APPRF]

A mechanical watch is not just for telling time. I'ts jewelry and like jewelry there are sought after brands that will always be in fashion. Rolex will always be a brand people aspire to buy, wear, collect, and some invest in, and keep in a bank safe. In a recession some sought after models may be less desirable, but there will be several models that will keep their status. A recession will not stop wealthy people from buying luxury stuff, and Rolex can always restrict supply further.

[teck21]

Originally Posted by APPRF

A recession will not stop wealthy people from buying luxury stuff, and Rolex can always restrict supply further.

While I agree with the rest of your points, why do so many of you persist in spreading the myth that Rolex can increase or decrease supply as easily and effectively without real cost the way we increase or decrease the flow of our taps?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by teck21

While I agree with the rest of your points, why do so many of you persist in spreading the myth that Rolex can increase or decrease supply as easily and effectively without real cost the way we increase or decrease the flow of our taps?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

exactly i think production is pretty fixed. Plus they wholesale watches. In a recession they get paid immediately just like before, and its the AD holding the stock that is moving more slowly. Rolex keeps their margins and keeps dumping watches on AD's and their margin will be the one that suffers. For that reason i think they are less dependent on the economy then you might think as far as production numbers since they are not selling to end consumers. The AD is the one who has to weather the storm if they want to stay an AD when the economy recovers... not Rolex.

[teck21]

Originally Posted by APPRF

A recession will not stop wealthy people from buying luxury stuff.

And again I challenge you to name me a single brand that is immune to an economic downturn.

Rolex caters to a far greater audience than that
which can continue spending in any way it likes regardless of economic conditions. I

The number of families / concentrated wealth that can afford to spend like money is absolutely no object regardless of anything that’s happening in the world is smaller than you think.

Certainly not enough to absorb the number of watches Rolex produces each year.

How many Daytona’s do you think these multi billionaires want?




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[APPRF]

Originally Posted by teck21

While I agree with the rest of your points, why do so many of you persist in spreading the myth that Rolex can increase or decrease supply as easily and effectively without real cost the way we increase or decrease the flow of our taps?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

There will be cost of course, but Rolex is more concerned in maintaining the brand image and status. Don't forget Rolex is a charity not a conventional company that has increasing profit as only objective, and the board don't have shareholders breathing down their neck.

[Clasper]

I think they are definitely gone.

At one time I would have argued they should have dummy models in their display cases, but in reality what's the point? they don't need them to drive sales of those particular models and you can't get them anyway except on the tail end of a long list

[APPRF]

Originally Posted by teck21

And again I challenge you to name me a single brand that is immune to an economic downturn.

Rolex caters to a far greater audience than that
which can continue spending in any way it likes regardless of economic conditions. I

The number of families / concentrated wealth that can afford to spend like money is absolutely no object regardless of anything that’s happening in the world is smaller than you think.

Certainly not enough to absorb the number of watches Rolex produces each year.

How many Daytona’s do you think these multi billionaires want?






Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Some models will always be sought after, and not only billionaires buy Rolex. Every person who can spare $7000 or more can buy a Rolex even in a recession. We have proof in previous recessions that people still buy PPs, Rolex, Mercedes, Porsches, etc. For sure they will not buy at silly prices from flippers like now, but they will still buy luxury goods from ADs. After recessions prices climb up again and people start going crazy and buy again. It's a cycle. Instagram and youtube has made a lot of people aware of brands more than before too.

[replicator]

Originally Posted by APPRF

There will be cost of course, but Rolex is more concerned in maintaining the brand image and status. Don't forget Rolex is a charity not a conventional company that has increasing profit as only objective, and the board don't have shareholders breathing down their neck.

This is the reason why Rolex is playing on a different level. No earnings numbers to meet, no shareholders who need to cash out. Clearly their goal isn’t to expand the Rolex brand to the masses, but instead maintain and enhance their prestige/legacy while creating the most durable and accurate mechanical watch. They won’t ever flood the market or make drastic changes to their model line up, so collectors gave continuity and a stable market.

[lamnyc]

Only if you have access to your AD's safe. Otherwise, you won't be seeing them at the front counter.

[Flyfisher]

Forever is a long time.

The younger generation generally are moving away from watches.

Demand will lessen.