seriously... the 15202 selling above $100K new now!!!

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by 7sins

The other thing that needs to be mentioned, is not all buyers of watches at these prices are buying just because they like the watch and are a true collector. You have a lot of speculators, that are not grey dealers, who purchase at these prices as they anticipate prices to further rise. That will cause prices to keep increasing, REGARDLESS if there is enough value for money in the watch.

This ^^

[dh1]

Originally Posted by 911AP

I think there is a lot of hate here for no reason. Everyone who has a 15202 right now is cheering. I know I am having just got one at retail a few months ago.

Well, of course you'd be cheering if AP is selling you $100 bills for ~$30.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by 911AP

I think there is a lot of hate here for no reason. Everyone who has a 15202 right now is cheering. I know I am having just got one at retail a few months ago.

Originally Posted by dh1

Well, of course you'd be cheering if AP is selling you $100 bills for ~$30.

Agreed.

I have one, and I am not cheering.

This isn't healthy for the watch industry long term (with respect to collectors).

I'd say the same thing about crypto, or any other market (opaque or transparent) that appears to be exhibiting bubble-like behavior. But, it's worse for watches, in my opinion, because watches are usually driven by passion, bitcoin is not.

[fsprow]

Personally, I think its great that these watches are considered very desirable and important - whether to wear, collect or hold for potential appreciation.

Makes me proud of the company - and pleased that I have some of their products. For me, the 15202 is my most comfortable watch, keeps great time (within 2spd) and makes me smile whenever I look at it. Few material goods have this effect.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by fsprow

Personally, I think its great that these watches are considered very desirable and important - whether to wear, collect or hold for potential appreciation.

Makes me proud of the company - and pleased that I have some of their products. For me, the 15202 is my most comfortable watch, keeps great time (within 2spd) and makes me smile whenever I look at it. Few material goods have this effect.

FSprow, are you indirectly saying the black panther watch doesn’t have that effect on you?

[fsprow]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

FSprow, are you indirectly saying the black panther watch doesn’t have that effect on you?

It indeed has an effect, but not that one !!

[HMHM]

Originally Posted by 911AP

I think there is a lot of hate here for no reason. Everyone who has a 15202 right now is cheering. I know I am having just got one at retail a few months ago. People are buying at these prices otherwise they wouldn't all be listed at them.

The average collector won't be able to play in the field anymore. Now it's going to be people who don't care to spend 100k on a 15202. They have the money. That is who they are targeting now.

Other brands should be cheering. If people can no longer afford AP, Patek, Rolex, they have no where else to go but other brands. As long as this BS continues where everyone wants the same 3 brands, every other brand is going to fail.

Yes those who have 15202 are cheering now..but try asking for the next piece from AP like a QP or a 15407ST and enjoy having a CODE being pushed down your throat before they start entertaining the request. The higher the price of a hot piece gets inflated, the more people are attracted to it for the purpose of investment. An average watch collector may not have the funds to compete with a grey market dealer who’s willing to buy 3 CODEs and a 15202. So the outcome is that a genuine collector gets priced out of collecting watches and the greys gets them to sell at 3x MSRP. I’m not sure if this is a healthy market or one that drives collectors away due to frustration.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by HMHM

Yes those who have 15202 are cheering now..but try asking for the next piece from AP like a QP or a 15407ST and enjoy having a CODE being pushed down your throat before they start entertaining the request. The higher the price of a hot piece gets inflated, the more people are attracted to it for the purpose of investment. An average watch collector may not have the funds to compete with a grey market dealer who’s willing to buy 3 CODEs and a 15202. So the outcome is that a genuine collector gets priced out of collecting watches and the greys gets them to sell at 3x MSRP. I’m not sure if this is a healthy market or one that drives collectors away due to frustration.

Thank you. Well said.

I'd even go as far as saying that not just your average collector is affected here, but some high spending VIPs too. We even have some of them here on TRF -- often we do encounter situations where we have to decide which hot piece to get (we're offered two, choose one, that sort of thing) simply because of the "market conditions" HMHM noted above.

[chiscott_29]

I think I’m with HMHM, GreenLantern, and a few others.

This just is not healthy for the sustainability of the market or for the hobby. While I’ve always tried to be realistic and have operated in the secondary market both buying and selling, I can’t support what’s happened over the past few months. As a result, I’m truly trying to expand my horizons. For example, “Hello Hermès H08!!”, and “Applause to IWC and the new 41mm pilot watches!!”

I just don’t believe this is all “economics” or normal market behavior. I don’t know if there is manipulation going on, but I do know that normal/efficient markets do not operate like this. ADs selling into the secondary market, collusion between dealers on specific models, phony pricing that has lost it’s grip and no longer really reflects a healthy bid/ask spread. Add in a LOT of free capital and boredom from the pandemic, and boom.

Bubbles form in any speculative asset and watches are now in this phase. I have no idea what will happen. They could all quadruple in value in the next year. Or, they could all be halved in price. What I do know is that the world doesn’t need watches and it’s a hobby that relatively few people enjoy and is becoming a (very) wealthy person’s game to play. I don’t see how those are good things...

Somebody mentioned crypto...Things seem frothy there too but I genuinely believe we’re at the start of a new financial and transactional paradigm and I feel that’s somewhat based on something tangible.

A “crash” in crypto would be healthy for its long term foundation and I think the watch market needs the same thing right now or the fallout isn’t going to be pretty.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[HMHM]

I think I can say on behalf of everybody that we appreciate that the watches we have are maintaining/increasing in value BUT it has to be an honest, transparent process built on steady foundation. No market manipulation by the greys, no back door selling from ADs to greys and that the brands properly penalise buyers who flip their watches.
I'm fine if the brands want to reward their best clients as with Patek and their green 5711s, this is a business after all. However, deceit should not be tolerated, especially the ADs.

[911AP]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

I think I’m with HMHM, GreenLantern, and a few others.

This just is not healthy for the sustainability of the market or for the hobby. While I’ve always tried to be realistic and have operated in the secondary market both buying and selling, I can’t support what’s happened over the past few months. As a result, I’m truly trying to expand my horizons. For example, “Hello Hermès H08!!”, and “Applause to IWC and the new 41mm pilot watches!!”

I just don’t believe this is all “economics” or normal market behavior. I don’t know if there is manipulation going on, but I do know that normal/efficient markets do not operate like this. ADs selling into the secondary market, collusion between dealers on specific models, phony pricing that has lost it’s grip and no longer really reflects a healthy bid/ask spread. Add in a LOT of free capital and boredom from the pandemic, and boom.

Bubbles form in any speculative asset and watches are now in this phase. I have no idea what will happen. They could all quadruple in value in the next year. Or, they could all be halved in price. What I do know is that the world doesn’t need watches and it’s a hobby that relatively few people enjoy and is becoming a (very) wealthy person’s game to play. I don’t see how those are good things...

Somebody mentioned crypto...Things seem frothy there too but I genuinely believe we’re at the start of a new financial and transactional paradigm and I feel that’s somewhat based on something tangible.

A “crash” in crypto would be healthy for its long term foundation and I think the watch market needs the same thing right now or the fallout isn’t going to be pretty.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

You guys need to realize the market doesn't care about genuine collectors. Market only cares about supply and demand. If this was a "bubble" like before there would be watches sitting and not being sold. But if you actually talk to dealers and put your watches up for sale, you will see them being bought. People were saying even the 15500 shouldn't be selling for 30k+. I sold mine for 32k in less than 3 weeks. I've had multiple grey dealers I have worked with in the past offer 95k+ for my 15202 now (which I'm not selling).

The fact is people with a lot of disposable income now want watches. You add in hype, and now everyone with the money to play is fighting over a small supply of the same goods. This is why you see the prices sky rocketing. They will continue to go up as long as the hype is there.

Look what happened with GameStop. The entire stock market went nuts over hype. No fundamental or technical reasoning could explain it. It was purely hype. This will continue until AP, Patek, RM, and Rolex all die out. First come up for a reason the bubble could burst before you say there is a bubble.

I don't see this changing....This is watch collector darwinism. The best clients will get the best watches at retail. If they can't get it at retail and they can afford second hand, then so be it. If the rest of us can't get what we want, then oh well....that's life.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by 911AP

You guys need to realize the market doesn't care about genuine collectors. Market only cares about supply and demand. If this was a "bubble" like before there would be watches sitting and not being sold.

I've lived through many bubbles (and even contributed to some, shamefully). In all of them, there's never been a supply glut with inventory sitting around unsold.

[Timo_]

It is indeed quite interesting to see small manufacturers gain traction through the hype of the big 3 in the industry. Even though I truly admire some of the staple pieces from Rolex, AP and PP I sometimes can't grasp by how much the prices went up yet again.

Only a few months ago one could get his hands on a blue dial 5711 for half of what they seem to be going for now - same goes for the 15202. Imagine the jump in price once the 116500 gets discontinued... Mad times. But as you mentioned: There's an upside for the smaller businesses in the industry that thrive on the increasing interest in the market.

[HMHM]

Originally Posted by 911AP

You guys need to realize the market doesn't care about genuine collectors. Market only cares about supply and demand. If this was a "bubble" like before there would be watches sitting and not being sold. But if you actually talk to dealers and put your watches up for sale, you will see them being bought. People were saying even the 15500 shouldn't be selling for 30k+. I sold mine for 32k in less than 3 weeks. I've had multiple grey dealers I have worked with in the past offer 95k+ for my 15202 now (which I'm not selling).

The fact is people with a lot of disposable income now want watches. You add in hype, and now everyone with the money to play is fighting over a small supply of the same goods. This is why you see the prices sky rocketing. They will continue to go up as long as the hype is there.

Look what happened with GameStop. The entire stock market went nuts over hype. No fundamental or technical reasoning could explain it. It was purely hype. This will continue until AP, Patek, RM, and Rolex all die out. First come up for a reason the bubble could burst before you say there is a bubble.

I don't see this changing....This is watch collector darwinism. The best clients will get the best watches at retail. If they can't get it at retail and they can afford second hand, then so be it. If the rest of us can't get what we want, then oh well....that's life.

AP makes 40k watches a year. How many Austen Chu (Horoloupe), Kevin Hart or John Mayer are out there to buy all the 40k watches? People like London Watch Collector only bought 3 - 15400, 15202 and 15407. What other watches will he want to buy if you look at his collection?
You mentioned watch darwinism - meaning only the fittest (richest) will survive. Can AP survive with just a handful of people throwing money at them?

[texasmade]

I'm a big AP fan with my one 15400. I would love to get a 15202 in SS and eventually a gold 15202 but I know I'm effectively priced out of the brand now. Kind of disappointing but nothing I can do about it and move on. It's not like I need this to live and there are plenty of other things I can spend my money on.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by HMHM

AP makes 40k watches a year. How many Austen Chu (Horoloupe), Kevin Hart or John Mayer are out there to buy all the 40k watches? People like London Watch Collector only bought 3 - 15400, 15202 and 15407. What other watches will he want to buy if you look at his collection?

You mentioned watch darwinism - meaning only the fittest (richest) will survive. Can AP survive with just a handful of people throwing money at them?

I could not have said it better myself.

Also, what about intake of new customers/collectors?

Everyone I know that I've introduced to AP, I've had to give a horribly long and depressing disclaimer informing them that everything they see me wearing, they cannot get. I can only imagine how horrible the initial sales experience must be (for both new customer and salesperson).

[911AP]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

I've lived through many bubbles (and even contributed to some, shamefully). In all of them, there's never been a supply glut with inventory sitting around unsold.

I don't know about that. I remember watching something by Roman from luxury bazaar saying during the last big bubble there was a lot of supply sitting around with high prices. I don't see how a bubble by definition could ever burst if the demand meets the supply. These aren't being paid by debt. It's all by cash.

Originally Posted by HMHM

AP makes 40k watches a year. How many Austen Chu (Horoloupe), Kevin Hart or John Mayer are out there to buy all the 40k watches? People like London Watch Collector only bought 3 - 15400, 15202 and 15407. What other watches will he want to buy if you look at his collection?
You mentioned watch darwinism - meaning only the fittest (richest) will survive. Can AP survive with just a handful of people throwing money at them?

There are a lot more people and money than you think. It surprised me even. The world is not that small. Again it's all hype driven. Blame social media.

[Kilometerman]

Let’s be clear. It’s a very different world today. When I bought my first nice watch over twenty years ago, I bought it because I loved it. In the back of my head, I rationalized some of the expense by telling myself that it probably wouldn’t lose too much value, and that if ever the need arose, I could probably sell it for something slightly less than what I paid.

Today, the last couple watches I’ve acquired, I also bought them because I loved them, but in the front of my mind, I know that I’m getting something at MSRP that is instantly worth 2x or more.

I thought long and hard about that first purchase. I had to be sure about it! Nowadays, I don’t have to think at all. Heck, it’s an instant profit. If I change my mind and don’t end up loving it, there’s seemingly no risk at all.

For a variety of reasons, the watches we all lust after have become Veblen goods - the more the aftermarket prices go up, the greater the demand for the watch. So yes, it is about supply and demand - it always is. But this demand curve is now upward sloping!

So there’s demand from the flippers, there’s demand driven by IG and all the “hype”, there’s a ton of liquidity in the system, cash is trash, and so on and so forth, but there’s incremental demand from WIS and collectors too. I imagine we are all victims of the hot-hand fallacy, and incrementally justifying that next watch at least in part on the basis of its resale value.

I have no idea what the catalyst will be. Covid-recession surely wasn’t it. But at some point, this trend will change, and that upward sloping demand curve will work in reverse...such that when prices fall, demand will deteriorate. It would be foolish to put a time frame on that happening, but it’s even more foolish to think that it will never happen.

[illiguy]

Originally Posted by HMHM

I think I can say on behalf of everybody that we appreciate that the watches we have are maintaining/increasing in value BUT it has to be an honest, transparent process built on steady foundation. No market manipulation by the greys, no back door selling from ADs to greys and that the brands properly penalise buyers who flip their watches.
I'm fine if the brands want to reward their best clients as with Patek and their green 5711s, this is a business after all. However, deceit should not be tolerated, especially the ADs.

Originally Posted by HMHM

AP makes 40k watches a year. How many Austen Chu (Horoloupe), Kevin Hart or John Mayer are out there to buy all the 40k watches? People like London Watch Collector only bought 3 - 15400, 15202 and 15407. What other watches will he want to buy if you look at his collection?
You mentioned watch darwinism - meaning only the fittest (richest) will survive. Can AP survive with just a handful of people throwing money at them?

I don’t understand this at all. By making the 15202ST very difficult to get, it’s driven several others to other AP models, including the CODE 11.59, AP Divers, etc.

AP has also masterfully leveraged the Royal Oak to sell out those variants.

When people can’t get a SS Daytona, they go grey or they buy a Datejust. Rolex wins.

AP wins when the 15202ST or 15202OR are unobtainable. This, in turn, logically drives up the market price of the Jumbo given outsized demand and limited supply.

Hell, even the Black Panther is sold-out.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by 911AP

I don't know about that. I remember watching something by Roman from luxury bazaar saying during the last big bubble there was a lot of supply sitting around with high prices. I don't see how a bubble by definition could ever burst if the demand meets the supply. These aren't being paid by debt. It's all by cash.

I'm talking about *bubbles, not watch bubbles.

I don't recall the last watch bubble. Was there really ever one?

I'm talking stock bubble. Real estate bubble. Tulip bubble.

No bubble results in inventory laying around. I'd wager it's impossible? But someone who's more learned in economics can school me on this.

Originally Posted by 911AP

There are a lot more people and money than you think. It surprised me even. The world is not that small. Again it's all hype driven. Blame social media.

Not really. Not quite at the level needed to sustain 40k watch sales/year in the vain that HMHM noted.

There's a lot of money out there, most of it isn't buying watches, I assure you.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by illiguy

When people can’t get a SS Daytona, they go grey or they buy a Datejust. Rolex wins.

How? When the margins on a DJ41 are lower than a Daytona?

Also, Rolex doesn't win when they lose a potential customer to a grey market dealer. That person might leave Rolex with a bitter taste in their mouth, and choose to never buy from a Rolex AD in the future.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by illiguy

Hell, even the Black Panther is sold-out.

Not according to the info I'm getting. But perhaps I'm relying on old (though quite reliable) information -- it's 22 hours old right now.

[illiguy]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

How? When the margins on a DJ41 are lower than a Daytona?

Also, Rolex doesn't win when they lose a potential customer to a grey market dealer. That person might leave Rolex with a bitter taste in their mouth, and choose to never buy from a Rolex AD in the future.

To quote Sergio Marchionne, former CEO and Chairman of Ferrari: “[Ferrari] was founded on one simple principle, you only produce one car less than the demand for the vehicle ... [to meet demand] would destroy the exclusivity of the brand.”

We’re not talking about Big Macs. We’re talking about Swiss luxury watches here.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by illiguy

To quote Sergio Marchionne, former CEO and Chairman of Ferrari: “[Ferrari] was founded on one simple principle, you only produce one car less than the demand for the vehicle ... [to meet demand] would destroy the exclusivity of the brand.”

We’re not talking about Big Macs. We’re talking about Swiss luxury watches here.

I've heard that quote used over and over. As a Ferrari collector myself, I assure you they don't actually do that. Though, yes, they come pretty close.

Rolex makes 1 million watches per year. Ferrari makes about 8,000 per year.

You can't compare the two.

Also, it's easier for more people to own more than one Rolex (or AP) than a Ferrari. Space to store isn't as much of an issue. Price point is dramatically different.

No one thinks Rolex is exclusive.

Even AP is barely exclusive at 40k a year.

If you want exclusive, go with FP Journe at 1,000/year.

The reason why greys love Rolex so much is precisely because it's not a Ferrari. Rolex is as good as gold. As good as cash.

Ferraris are not. Neither is Richard Mille.

[GreenLantern]

Honestly, even if the Ferrari quote applied here, one less than demand would make sense (N minus 1).

What we're looking at here is 10x less than demand. It's the only way the grey market can sustain these multiples.

A lot of money being left on the table by Rolex, AP, Patek, others.

FP Journe can't increase their production capacity dramatically. Rolex, AP, Patek, can more readily shift capacity from less popular (or even lower margin) references to higher margin / more popular ones.

They are not. It's that simple.

[911AP]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

I'm talking about *bubbles, not watch bubbles.

I don't recall the last watch bubble. Was there really ever one?

I'm talking stock bubble. Real estate bubble. Tulip bubble.

No bubble results in inventory laying around. I'd wager it's impossible? But someone who's more learned in economics can school me on this.



Not really. Not quite at the level needed to sustain 40k watch sales/year in the vain that HMHM noted.

There's a lot of money out there, most of it isn't buying watches, I assure you.

If we are talking a general bubble, right before it burst there is lots of inventory laying around. Suddenly demand dies when the bubble pops. This results in supply not being able to be off loaded quickly. People don't want to sell so much lower today than they had to yesterday. So there is then always inventory sitting around not doing anything. People also don't want to buy in the process. No one wants to try to catch a falling knife. This makes the decline that much worse till it finally hits the bottom. Then that inventory gets bought up again and so forth.

I actually think a lot of the money is buying watches. Along with cars.....art....etc.... People want to go away from the stock market. Especially the dumb money out there. A lot of newly rich people with zero financial education to understand the stock market. But the watch market is super easy to understand. Buy a 15202 at retail and you just made 3-4x your investment instantly. What other investment can guarantee that with such simplicity?

I'll keep saying it......it's all hype. When the hype dies the market will correct. Until then who knows how high it'll go. Everyone is going to ride the wave till the hype dies.

[HMHM]

Originally Posted by illiguy

I don’t understand this at all. By making the 15202ST very difficult to get, it’s driven several others to other AP models, including the CODE 11.59, AP Divers, etc.

AP has also masterfully leveraged the Royal Oak to sell out those variants.

When people can’t get a SS Daytona, they go grey or they buy a Datejust. Rolex wins.

AP wins when the 15202ST or 15202OR are unobtainable. This, in turn, logically drives up the market price of the Jumbo given outsized demand and limited supply.

Hell, even the Black Panther is sold-out.

But the CODE prices are even higher than Royal Oaks. Heck, even the ROO cost more than the 15500. Who is going to buy the CODE/ROO, which isn't what they want in the first place just to wait for the call for the may/may not happened 15500... Don't even talk about the 15202.

So if customers figure out the journey to the 15202 is a CODE, a ROO, a 15500 THEN only a 15202.... can I ask who's going to invest in developing a relationship with AP? sure the wealthy few can! But how many wealthy people out there are willing to embrace that journey of uncertainty? Which wealthy people wants to be treated like moron at the AD when asking for a 15202?

I'm sorry I'm too poor to understand the logic.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by 911AP

If we are talking a general bubble, right before it burst there is lots of inventory laying around.

Forgive me, but I was initially under the impression you were refuting that this is a bubble simply because there's no inventory lying around.

I do agree that right at the instant of the bubble popping, inventory does something very weird.

We aren't at the point of the bubble popping, so there's no inventory lying around. The lack of inventory doesn't imply there's no bubble though.

Originally Posted by 911AP

I'll keep saying it......it's all hype. When the hype dies the market will correct. Until then who knows how high it'll go. Everyone is going to ride the wave till the hype dies.

Agreed. The cat's out of the bag. No way to put it back in at the moment.

I can imagine some strange evil scheme-y ways to do it, but it's clear none of the big brands have the stomach for it (and to regain control of the market in the process).

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by HMHM

But the CODE prices are even higher than Royal Oaks. Heck, even the ROO cost more than the 15500. Who is going to buy the CODE/ROO, which isn't what they want in the first place just to wait for the call for the may/may not happened 15500... Don't even talk about the 15202.

So if customers figure out the journey to the 15202 is a CODE, a ROO, a 15500 THEN only a 15202.... can I ask who's going to invest in developing a relationship with AP? sure the wealthy few can! But how many wealthy people out there are willing to embrace that journey of uncertainty? Which wealthy people wants to be treated like moron at the AD when asking for a 15202?

I'm sorry I'm too poor to understand the logic.

I'm not. And I still don't believe this logic is the correct way of doing long term business and ensuring that there's a good flow of new customers to supplement the repeat business from pre-existing customers.

If AP stopped attracting new customers to their retail network directly (we need to stop saying grey market sales help the brand, they don't in the long term), and only catered to their existing clientele, AP will eventually face declining sales over the long term.

Most of my friends (many of whom are more financially capable than I am) find it a bit bitter when they ask me about a Jumbo only to get an explanation that "you have to buy all these watches you don't want first, and then maybe perhaps possibly you'll get the one you want, or maybe it'll get discontinued before your name comes up" OR "your other option is to pay 4x retail at a grey market dealer for a watch that might not be registered in your name with AP, and won't give you any clout with AP for future purchases if they release something limited that you like."

Those people just go elsewhere.

(And yes, some do go the grey route as others have pointed out here repeatedly.)

[illiguy]

Love the healthy discussion, and love more that people are deprecating ideas, but not attacking one another personally. Great reason to love TRF and fellow WIS.

At the end of the day, we can agree to disagree (amicably) on some points, and certainly agree on many others.

1) In a vacuum, do I think the 15202ST or 5711 or 16500LN are “worth” as a pure timepiece the price being paid?

No. Certainly not six figures for the former two, and certainly not $40k USD for the latter.

2) Do I think it’s “good” for certain brands to make their flagship watch unobtainable to most

Yes.

3) Do I think there’s a positive externality for both brands and enthusiasts that certain watches are currently unobtainable?

Yes. For brands, potential clients may endeavor into other lines by the manufacture. For enthusiasts, interests may endeavor into other brands, altogether, like interesting independents. With all the “hype”, think about how much more we discuss independents these days outside of the well-known entities like FP Journe (which, ironically, benefitted from the “hype”). I love reading forum posts about Czapek, Moser, etc.

4) Do I think hype plays a huge part in all this?

Absolutely. Some seem to welcome it, and others try their best to mitigate it (TS and Patek). It is what it is.

5) If truly a bubble that bursts, then ... bad for those who bought at current prices (especially speculators) ... and great for all those here who genuinely love the 5711, 15202ST and can now purchase at a more feasible price.