AD today: "They're coming"

[HiBoost]

Originally Posted by liberalclown

Rolex competes with other watch brands to capture older demographic, but they compete with phones, wearables and other watch brands to capture the younger demographic.

Coolness of wearing one was associated with Connery, Mcqueen, Newman, Hillary, and Che Guevara and that same coolness brought many to the brand but now it became "Elite"s toy in the minds of many and there is a heavy stigma. Unless Rolex repositions itself and finds a way of fulfilling the younger demographic's demand, then they indeed risk of losing a generation of new customers.

I think there are two categories of "lost customer risk"... the one you are mentioning, which associates the brand with instagram hype and flashiness, and the one Ariel was talking about which is the "Rolex dealer doesn't have an f-ing thing in stock and I'm not going to play games paying $20k for a $10k watch, so screw it, I'll just go buy another brand". I'm harping on this second angle a bit because the common wisdom on TRF seems to be "Rolex loves everything being sold out, just makes the brand seem more exclusive". I personally give some real weight to a guy who knows people at Rolex well enough to be invited in for a private tour. His experience and insight is certainly worth something and he says Rolex was slow to recognize this as a problem, but now do, and know they have to do something about it.

[SubMillennial]

Originally Posted by liberalclown

Rolex competes with other watch brands to capture older demographic, but they compete with phones, wearables and other watch brands to capture the younger demographic.

Coolness of wearing one was associated with Connery, Mcqueen, Newman, Hillary, and Che Guevara and that same coolness brought many to the brand but now it became "Elite"s toy in the minds of many and there is a heavy stigma. Unless Rolex repositions itself and finds a way of fulfilling the younger demographic's demand, then they indeed risk of losing a generation of new customers.

I am 30 so think count as that younger generation. The truth is right now probably 5% or less of us are even lucky enough to be in positions to afford one. But among my social and professional circle, which is admittedly skewed towards a more affluent socioeconomic strata, the above just isn't true. Phones, wearables; while branding is still big, it's still a lot more of a utilitarian consideration than about brand signaling. Apple is king and yet a top end iphone is still a whole heck of a lot closer to $0 than even an entry level OP. And not, in my opinion, perceived as a luxury good and is in no way compared with Rolex at all.

We might not be wearing Rolex watches en masse but in my experience the brand still has a great amount of salience, miles more than any other, and I predict as millennials begin to accrue more wealth and become the predominant spending cohort, Rolex will be in just as much demand as ever. It won't matter at all which public figures from half a century ago wore the brand. And it's not like there's a shortage of modern super celebs like Drake who sport Rolex timepieces.

Just look at cars. We're still buying Audi, BMW, Lexus, and none of those brands have nearly the intraindustry dominance Rolex SA does.

[nyc10ken]

Does rolex really care if a generation is lost, even two generations? They're a private charitable trust and in if for the long haul.

[Jackie Daytona]

We will not. Luxury is exclusivity. When supply is under demand it provides them with the luxury/exclusivity that preserves the brand as a whole as much as it pains us all. I don’t think we will ever truly be like the olden days again in this smart watch era.

[fskywalker]

Originally Posted by HiBoost

don't worry, "they're coming"".

yeah right.......






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[superspectral]

Originally Posted by nyc10ken

Does rolex really care if a generation is lost, even two generations? They're a private charitable trust and in if for the long haul.

Rolex has spent a lot of money advertising over the years cultivating interest in customers in their 30's who can then buy a Rolex when they have more disposable income in their 50's. Opinions may vary, but I'm pretty irritated how difficult it is to buy a watch today when I'm able to afford it when I know they were easy to buy a decade ago when I was only window shopping.

I currently have a DJ on special order with deposit for two months (which is over due - any day now but be prepared for 6 more weeks). Okay, I will wait it out. And I'll probably get on the waiting list for a sports model. But if I wait 3 years for Rolex I may have spent $30K on other non Rolex watches by then. So yeah, I think eventually it will catch up to them because chronic Rolex shortages simply teaches people like me to research and find out all the other wonderful watches I can buy (and not just Tudor).

[007timer]

Originally Posted by Oystersteel92

Damn. I've seen 114 Rolexes all in one place before, but it's been a decade.

What really sucks is that out of all the watches that came, none got allocated to me. Tells me that I’ll be waiting for a while to get what I want.

[texasmade]

Originally Posted by nyc10ken

Does rolex really care if a generation is lost, even two generations? They're a private charitable trust and in if for the long haul.

Yes they do. The charitable trust still has bills and employees to pay. They're not going to pay vendors and employees in Rolex watches. Rolex needs to remain a going concern.

[S1mplee]

My dealer told me the same thing. They didn’t release too many models this year because they want to focus on their current lineup and push out more product.

[Spartan1]

Have the feeling that the only thing Rolex will be ‘ramping’ up will be the number us who remain on lengthy, often nonexistent, waiting lists for next to impossible to obtain watches.

[kizerman]

My AD just had Rolex make them refurbish their mostly empty Rolex display cases last month. That tells me that they are at least planning on getting AD's more inventory. Why else would they do this??

[garyk]

Very happy with what I have, I don’t really expect to receive any of the watches I’ve indicated to the AD that I would like to have. Sad and I don’t see any changes coming any time soon..

[Crazy Lugs]

Originally Posted by kizerman

My AD just had Rolex make them refurbish their mostly empty Rolex display cases last month. That tells me that they are at least planning on getting AD's more inventory. Why else would they do this??

I hesitate to say the word “guarantee,” but under the current Rolex CEO, desirable pieces will simply not hit the display case. That’s just the way it is and will be under their current strategy.

What will ultimately hit the display case are the shitters, to put it bluntly. Any current desirable piece will not be sold from the case, period.

[101031-28]

I don’t think Rolex “strategy” of the past 3+ years will change, even with a ramping back up of production post Covid lockdown, demand will still be way higher than supply.

[nyc10ken]

Originally Posted by texasmade

Yes they do. The charitable trust still has bills and employees to pay. They're not going to pay vendors and employees in Rolex watches. Rolex needs to remain a going concern.

Ever speak with folks that worked at Rolex? Pay there sucks and the only real benefit is the watches.

[snyde]

Originally Posted by Dontknow

We will not. Luxury is exclusivity. When supply is under demand it provides them with the luxury/exclusivity that preserves the brand as a whole as much as it pains us all. I don’t think we will ever truly be like the olden days again in this smart watch era.

Not enough of us watch nerds out there.


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[Freespeach]

Personally I like the fact that Rolexes are hard to get from an AD. Makes the ones I have feel more special and I enjoy the hunt for new ones. What is the point of having an Omega? Nothing really special or exclusive. All you have to do is walk in the store and take your pick.

And if money is no object...there are always the greys.

[Francist]

You know the brand f-it all up for the “general” public when u can’t even get a decent men’s size watch from the AD. Meanwhile u go online and see all these grey dealers selling even OP41 for almost twice msrp. Those are not even submariner-level kinda watch.
The situation really sickens me, i’m lucky enough to have bought 2 SS daytona, batgirl & bluesy before the recent price rocket. But i’m not buying anything else. I can’t bring myself to pay almost twice msrp to all these flippers.

Not only that, you see people flipping less popular models for merely $500. FFS. It’s gone full retard at this stage. There goes me ranting again.

[shaunylw]

Originally Posted by Crazy Lugs

I hesitate to say the word “guarantee,” but under the current Rolex CEO, desirable pieces will simply not hit the display case. That’s just the way it is and will be under their current strategy.

What will ultimately hit the display case are the shitters, to put it bluntly. Any current desirable piece will not be sold from the case, period.

Oyster perpetuals used to be the stuff nobody wanted in the case . Now people want to pay 2x retail for those . At this point, unless they have a lot of airkings, i think they cases are going to look like they do now for quite a while.


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[shaunylw]

Originally Posted by Freespeach

Personally I like the fact that Rolexes are hard to get from an AD. Makes the ones I have feel more special and I enjoy the hunt for new ones. What is the point of having an Omega? Nothing really special or exclusive. All you have to do is walk in the store and take your pick.

And if money is no object...there are always the greys.

There really isn’t much exclusive about a Rolex. Unless you have a PM Daytona, or something in limited production, they make an absolute ton of everything and long life cycles. Hard to get for some doesn’t make it rare or exclusive.


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[Dhiren]

Interesting article ... now you realize what’s going on
https://r.tapatalk.com/shareLink/top...ink_source=app


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[Boaters]

We will see...

[Frank McKay]

The bills are coming too.

[HiBoost]

Originally Posted by Freespeach

Personally I like the fact that Rolexes are hard to get from an AD. Makes the ones I have feel more special and I enjoy the hunt for new ones. What is the point of having an Omega? Nothing really special or exclusive. All you have to do is walk in the store and take your pick.



And if money is no object...there are always the greys.

You comment makes it sound like you have no appreciation for horology at all, you simply want to have a widget that others can't get. That's fine, everybody is motivated by different things, but that certainly isn't the WIS perspective.

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[watchwatcher]

Originally Posted by HiBoost

"Rolex staff are aware of the issues, really do not like the situation, and realize they are at risk of losing a generation of new customers", it does make me wonder if there may actually be some kind of break in the logjam later this year.

Hmm, well, first of all, thank you for sharing your conversation.

However, I think if you really break that statement down, you'll see that Rolex is already aware of the issues, (or more accurately, has been for some time), and finds its situation one being they are on top of the world right now.

Let's turn it around on ourselves. If our business practice is succeeding past our wildest dreams, do we go scrambling to try to "fix" it? Losing a generation of new customers? Please. When they went to this unobtanium business model, they didn't do so out of fear of losing customers, but to attract customers, you know, the ones that want what they can't have? And you know what? It worked. Man, did it ever.

The only thing that needs "fixing" is placating the crybabies who can't get one. And that's easily accomplished by a universal canned statement, much like the one above. Who knows? If they keep saying that, maybe people will start to actually believe it. And isn't that what's really important these days? Not the actual truth, but the perception of the truth.

Remember the days of trying on watches at the AD and then buying them from trusted sellers for a big discount? Yeah, me too. That's the situation Rolex really doesn't like. And those days are not coming back. IMO, anyway.

[Wrist Watcher]

Originally Posted by brucethemanlee

believe it when i see it

problem is even if Rolex ramps up supply they're NEVER going to meet demand and NEVER will want to meet demand.

And if Rolex increases production by 10% its going to be 10% of everything. not all focussed on SS, which is what people want.

As for SS Daytona, they were a scarcity before the 2016 and will remain a scarcity even with increase in production. Personally, you'll see more Exp, Exp 2, AK, Milgaus, some OPs, Subs, and BLNRs. BLROs, Daytonas, Kermit, SkyD-blue will always be harder to come by

Agree with this, especially the last part about the Daytona, Pepsi, Kermit, etc. always being difficult to come by.

[HiBoost]

Originally Posted by watchwatcher

Hmm, well, first of all, thank you for sharing your conversation.

However, I think if you really break that statement down, you'll see that Rolex is already aware of the issues, (or more accurately, has been for some time), and finds its situation one being they are on top of the world right now.

Let's turn it around on ourselves. If our business practice is succeeding past our wildest dreams, do we go scrambling to try to "fix" it? Losing a generation of new customers? Please. When they went to this unobtanium business model, they didn't do so out of fear of losing customers, but to attract customers, you know, the ones that want what they can't have? And you know what? It worked. Man, did it ever.

The only thing that needs "fixing" is placating the crybabies who can't get one. And that's easily accomplished by a universal canned statement, much like the one above. Who knows? If they keep saying that, maybe people will start to actually believe it. And isn't that what's really important these days? Not the actual truth, but the perception of the truth.

Remember the days of trying on watches at the AD and then buying them from trusted sellers for a big discount? Yeah, me too. That's the situation Rolex really doesn't like. And those days are not coming back. IMO, anyway.

I think it's more nuanced than the two extremes we always throw out (either all ADs are empty or all ADs have a white dial Daytona). If Rolex fully embraces the tulipization of their brand, they are at risk of being left with a real disaster post bubble pop (and thus far, no bubble in the history of civilization has ever not popped). We're living in the day of $20k OPs, but someday the world will wake up and say "you know, paying $20k for a $5k watch is not a symbol of status, it's a symbol of cognitive disability." If you want to show the world you are such a baller that you can afford to wear a $20k watch, how about wearing one that's actually worth $20k? Rolex was always a brand that wanted to be your aspirational/milestone goal. But if you can't get a Daytona for your 50th bday, even with 2 years of pre-planning, maybe you'll just buy a new Vette instead. Or an AP.

Again, Ariel does not work for Rolex. He does not sell them nor profit off of their sales. I see no angle where it makes sense for him to tow the company line if he doesn't believe it. And I think having those behind the scenes relationships, and the late night dinner and drinks conversations, gives a far better view into what the thinking is inside the crown than any of us have. So when he makes the statement that "it took them a while, but they have finally recognized the problem" I do not immediately dismiss that as a nonsense fluff comment. You and everyone else are, of course, free to do so. I'm just passing along the info.

[Master_Grogu]

The problem is easily solved.

Flood the market with only the most desired references. Make them ready to buy in 1-2 months for anybody. Once the answer to « do you have a BLRO » is « I can get it for you next week sir. », then nobody will be paying above MSRP, thus no wise guy will try to buy them simply to flip them, and thus we have ended this virtuous upward circle.

You then have all the genuine fans who get their desired piece, no flipper interest since it doesn’t make sense to spend 10k to earn 0$, and thus we can resume a standard cycle of growth.

[mattmc1973]

Originally Posted by superspectral

Rolex has spent a lot of money advertising over the years cultivating interest in customers in their 30's who can then buy a Rolex when they have more disposable income in their 50's. Opinions may vary, but I'm pretty irritated how difficult it is to buy a watch today when I'm able to afford it when I know they were easy to buy a decade ago when I was only window shopping.

I currently have a DJ on special order with deposit for two months (which is over due - any day now but be prepared for 6 more weeks). Okay, I will wait it out. And I'll probably get on the waiting list for a sports model. But if I wait 3 years for Rolex I may have spent $30K on other non Rolex watches by then. So yeah, I think eventually it will catch up to them because chronic Rolex shortages simply teaches people like me to research and find out all the other wonderful watches I can buy (and not just Tudor).

We're in the same boat. I've wanted a Rolex for a long time, but now at 48 I finally have enough money that I want to buy one. And I can't get what I want. I've made the decision to buy a product. I have the money to buy said product. But apparently I have to shmooze and make myself worthy enough to sell to. "Please please let me give you money!" I too have an order for a DJ that will come in whenever. I wanted a Submariner but have been told by everyone that's a no go, a DJ is what you can order. So I'll do the same as you. Buy the DJ, use it as purchase history to eventually get a Submariner.

[Freespeach]

Originally Posted by HiBoost

You comment makes it sound like you have no appreciation for horology at all, you simply want to have a widget that others can't get. That's fine, everybody is motivated by different things, but that certainly isn't the WIS perspective.

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You may be missing the point.

Part of collecting is the fact that others can not obtain.
Be it stamps, watches, or baseball cards.
If everyone could easily get a Babe Ruth rookie card...what would the point of collecting be?
Rolex by limiting access creates perceived scarcity.

From a horology perspective...outside the SkyDweller...Rolex does not create a super complication.
Beyond its history and continued reminder of such in its marketing...Rolex horological value is a thing of the past.
All my watches I own, I wear. They are not in display cases.

If folks wanted something to just tell time, be waterproof, and be a quality watch...Rolex should not be the first choice, while good, not the best nor worth the price.

Rolex value comes with the name and the fact that not everyone can either afford nor obtain one.

If you could get any Rolex whenever you wanted they would be sold down at the WallyMart.

Bottomline: Thank you Rolex, keep up the good work. Feel free to limit supply even more.