Hodinkee seems to think the vintage watch market is 'softening'

[dexvd]

Was discussing in a thread a few weeks back about prices seeming to be fairly stagnant the last few years for some references... Others argued with examples that showed prices have continued to rise...

Hodinkee seems to think things are weakening https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/au...nal-exceptions

Maybe I'm just being hopeful because I like most vintage watches better than the majority of modern ones and don't view them as an investment or area to make profit one but while the best of the best seem to go for increasingly high values, from my perception the less than perfect, wearable condition watches are stabilizing in terms of price. I have a feeling there is a growing standard deviation but that the mode has not changed much...

Perhaps I should start attempting to track prices on a few references that interest me over time... Not really sure what the purpose would be though as I am just looking to buy, own and wear rather than flip them for a profit.

[Wesley Crusher]

You lost me at "Hodinkee"

[dexvd]

Originally Posted by Wesley Crusher

You lost me at "Hodinkee"

In my view, they seem to be one of the sources of blame for the market getting over heated in the first place... They buy and sell vintage watches to make money and get views off of articles about record breaking auction watch sales... So if they were trying to kick off false rumours, I can't see how it would be to their overall benefit.

[scarlet knight]

Is your Pepsi bought new by you or bought used and vintage? I'd love to buy a vintage Pepsi.

[AS1]

Thanks for posting.

I think any general comment about the market "softening" does not give due regard to what the article sort of gets into, which is that there is a separation taking place.

The market for very high quality vintage Rolex is not softening. Or, at least, I have yet to see any evidence for that. Talk to any of the top dealers and they will tell you that it is extremely difficult to get their hands on those real pristine pieces. Collectors are keeping them and don't need the money, so they're not selling.

Lesser quality pieces are probably suffering, true.

I think if one's hope is to see a material drop in price of pristine vintage Rolex (as opposed to certain other brands), then a real, deep economic crisis like 2008 would probably be the only way that happens in my humble view at least. If not... I think people are holding on to what is an increasingly very limited supply.

My comments apply to Rolex, not other brands.

[speedolex]

Originally Posted by AS1

Thanks for posting.

I think any general comment about the market "softening" does not give due regard to what the article sort of gets into, which is that there is a separation taking place.

The market for very high quality vintage Rolex is not softening. Or, at least, I have yet to see any evidence for that. Talk to any of the top dealers and they will tell you that it is extremely difficult to get their hands on those real pristine pieces. Collectors are keeping them and don't need the money, so they're not selling.

Lesser quality pieces are probably suffering, true.

I read the article as the opposite, that the six-figure market is softening as there are fewer people out there investing in $150,000 watches. My feeling is that the millennial hipster movement will ensure that a decent 60's Rolex will command it's typical $5,000 to $7,000, it's these museum-quality rarities that are softening.

[AS1]

Originally Posted by speedolex

I read the article as the opposite, that the six-figure market is softening as there are fewer people out there investing in $150,000 watches. My feeling is that the millennial hipster movement will ensure that a decent 60's Rolex will command it's typical $5,000 to $7,000, it's these museum-quality rarities that are softening.

Which museum quality Rolexes were discussed in that article?

A GMT sold for $347K in March.

http://www.businessinsider.com/35-mi...-record-2016-5

[speedolex]

Originally Posted by AS1

Which museum quality Rolexes were discussed in that article?

A GMT sold for $347K in March.

http://www.businessinsider.com/35-mi...-record-2016-5

From the article:

"Lange 1 in Steel With Black Dial Sells For $233,000 – Somehow Disappoints Onlookers

So you all know about the steel Lange 1 with black dial that Christie's consigned – I wrote about it way back here. This is a monstrously rare and special watch in the Lange community – and IMHO, one of the coolest watches you can own in the world of Lange. The watch belonged to a well known Lange collector in the U.S., with direct and crystal clear provenance from Pisa in Italy – it was as good as you could've asked for, really. Christie's put an estimate of $200,000 to $400,000 on the watch..."

Point being that the core of the vintage market aren't these six-figure rarities, there doesn't seem to be a softening where the bulk of the business is done- below $15,000.

[themaninblack]

Originally Posted by speedolex

I read the article as the opposite, that the six-figure market is softening as there are fewer people out there investing in $150,000 watches. My feeling is that the millennial hipster movement will ensure that a decent 60's Rolex will command it's typical $5,000 to $7,000, it's these museum-quality rarities that are softening.

I love the attribution of blame to "hipsters". How many of TRF members who are buying (and selling) Rolex vintage are "hipsters"? How many of the guys in the trade are? I go to bars, cafes camera shops, and record shops and come across plenty of "hipsters" at home and in my travels and am yet to meet any "digging" vintage Rolex but YMMV!

As to Hodinkee, they lost me a long time ago now.

[speedolex]

Originally Posted by themaninblack

I love the attribution of blame to "hipsters". How many of TRF members who are buying (and selling) Rolex vintage are "hipsters"? How many of the guys in the trade are? I go to bars, cafes camera shops, and record shops and come across plenty of "hipsters" at home and in my travels and am yet to meet any "digging" vintage Rolex but YMMV!

As to Hodinkee, they lost me a long time ago now.

[Michael M.]

Originally Posted by themaninblack

I love the attribution of blame to "hipsters". How many of TRF members who are buying (and selling) Rolex vintage are "hipsters"? How many of the guys in the trade are? I go to bars, cafes camera shops, and record shops and come across plenty of "hipsters" at home and in my travels and am yet to meet any "digging" vintage Rolex but YMMV!

As to Hodinkee, they lost me a long time ago now.

Agreed. None of my watch collector friends or clients are hipsters

[Kingface66]

Originally Posted by speedolex

OK, let's be candid here. That is a MODEL. His name is Stanislav. A quick search will produce that.

But, blaming hipsters, (or, their "movement")...like, themaninblack stated earlier...with whom I cross paths quite often, I've yet to see one wearing a vintage Rolex. And to that end, I hope my mid-60s Sub is worth a little more than $5,000 to $7,000!

[watchgroupcorp]

I read that article earlier, today. Jack Forster brings out some interesting thoughts... Paying 6 figures for a watch that is deteriorating on the dial, could be problematic in the near future... That dial will likely keep deteriorating unless something is done to preserve the current look. Clear coating it would completely change the gilt effect with regards to the change of color when light hits it at different angles. Also, clear coating would increase the thickness of the dial slightly. The dial thickness issue could be corrected by turning the outer edge where the dial contacts the dial shelf to remove the added thickness of the clear coat, but it could also remove some of the ink/paint if not done precisely. Also, chucking a dial can easily bend it. A precision clear coat pad printing process that does not print any clear coat on the outer edge could work... But then the dial will no longer be original, and this reduces the value in the eyes of purists. So I believe that a 6 figure watch with a tropical dial or dial that has endured some other aging pattern should almost be hermetically sealed in a dark vault... but radioactive lume will still cause damage. That one article published today could significantly adversely affect results at future auctions. It will be interesting to see what happens.

[greekbum]

There's the real market and the fantasy market IMHO. The real market is liquid daily at today's current prices. The fantasy market is not and nobody ever realized anywhere near these prices in the real market. There's a few dealers (sellers) and a few funds that have raised funds to buy watches (buyers) and a handful of super rich buyers (buyers) competing in the fantasy market IMHO.

[threemonkeys]

<----- hipster

[AS1]

Originally Posted by speedolex

From the article:

"Lange 1 in Steel With Black Dial Sells For $233,000 – Somehow Disappoints Onlookers

So you all know about the steel Lange 1 with black dial that Christie's consigned – I wrote about it way back here. This is a monstrously rare and special watch in the Lange community – and IMHO, one of the coolest watches you can own in the world of Lange. The watch belonged to a well known Lange collector in the U.S., with direct and crystal clear provenance from Pisa in Italy – it was as good as you could've asked for, really. Christie's put an estimate of $200,000 to $400,000 on the watch..."

Point being that the core of the vintage market aren't these six-figure rarities, there doesn't seem to be a softening where the bulk of the business is done- below $15,000.

Lange 1 is a Rolex? in both my first and second post I refer specifically to Rolex and not other brands.

[speedolex]

Originally Posted by AS1

Lange 1 is a Rolex? in both my first and second post I refer specifically to Rolex and not other brands.

I misread your comments. The article was referring to many brands so I thought we were as well. A few posts above greekbum is saying what I'm saying, just more clearly I suppose.

[speedolex]

Originally Posted by threemonkeys

<----- hipster

Welcome. Please don't hurt us.

[jedly1]

It's a slightly bizarre article in regards to the impression it gives of vintage Rolex ... $37.5k for a b grade 6239 , is soft ? Not in most people's worlds it's not ... Maybe if you've been hugely overcharging in the first place ... There was a nicer watch on a forum two weeks ago from a well respected New York dealer previously , priced at $30k a much more market price .

So upshot of the article ... Modern are on their Arse , b grade vintage don't make as much as a grade vintage .... Christies auctions are a lot closer to real world prices in some ways than Phillips and very rarely does anywhere in the world see the same OTT results as the Geneva sales ...... Is any of this news to anyone ?

And on a side note , the absolute opposite was true for most of the vintage Rolex i saw at the Hong Kong sales ... Given many of the pieces were b or c grade a lot made A grade prices .

[AS1]

Originally Posted by speedolex

I misread your comments. The article was referring to many brands so I thought we were as well. A few posts above greekbum is saying what I'm saying, just more clearly I suppose.

no worries

[speedolex]

Originally Posted by AS1

no worries

As a Jets fan, I'm always worried.

[themaninblack]

Originally Posted by jedly1

And on a side note , the absolute opposite was true for most of the vintage Rolex i saw at the Hong Kong sales ... Given many of the pieces were b or c grade a lot made A grade prices .

Hong Kong Hipster factor!

[Vincent65]

Originally Posted by Wesley Crusher

You lost me at "Hodinkee"

[speedolex]

Originally Posted by themaninblack

Hong Kong Hipster factor!

They're everywhere!

[AS1]

Originally Posted by speedolex

As a Jets fan, I'm always worried.

As a fellow Jets fan/season ticket holder I definitely hear you on that!

[Mike1066]

Originally Posted by Wesley Crusher

You lost me at "Hodinkee"

Hahaha! +1