Christies Auction - 6239 Paul Newman

[michael23]

Hello everyone, I have just seen the prices of Christies Rare Watch auction and a 6239 Paul Newman white dial watch only was sold for 336.5K USD (if watch conditions are similar, black dials are usually even more expensive than white). What does everyone think about the trend of the PN watches. Personally I think the prices will continue to increase a lot more, especially for top condition pieces which are very difficult to find. Would love to own a PN one day, it really is the pinnacle of vintage watches IMO.

https://www.christies.com/lotfinder/...1-a654b333c4ae

[roh123]

I think we are seeing a clear market change where outstanding examples fetch super strong prices. Less than perfect ones are cheaper today compared to earlier. I’d expect this trend to continue. Not only for Newmans.

[theflywrist]

Originally Posted by roh123

I think we are seeing a clear market change where outstanding examples fetch super strong prices. Less than perfect ones are cheaper today compared to earlier. I’d expect this trend to continue. Not only for Newmans.

Undoubtably.
This is how I always think of it as well. I think the market has been correcting (rightfully) on all models at average conditions, Vintage Daytonas(PN and non), gilt subs/gmts etc. Exceptional quality will always fetch premiums IMO.
Simply because there are very few out there, let alone for sale.

[Sublovin]

the cream of the crop will settle down and hold value in my opinion, but most will begin a sharp decline. There is a very finite number of people with the desire and means to spend $300,000 on an old watch. Also, many of the lesser condition watches were made in such abundance that the prices are far outpacing supply.
Think about it....most of these watches that have gone crazy in value are readily available.

[1William]

I believe that watches that are unique and/or have providence will continue to hold or increase in value. I think most of this collecting is speculation and investment. I also think that the market will diminish over the next decade as people tire of items that are out of the price range of reasonable. If you reflect on the automobile market the same could be said. Look at what happen to the Corvette prices of the late 80's to early mid 90's. Some of this is generational but most of it is monetary and I already see people getting bored with the hype and prices.

[MorningTundra]

Originally Posted by roh123

I think we are seeing a clear market change where outstanding examples fetch super strong prices. Less than perfect ones are cheaper today compared to earlier. I’d expect this trend to continue. Not only for Newmans.

I agree. I thought it was just me but prices for average condition examples seem to be softening. Particularly pre-vintage subs and GMTs. Is this real or just my perception?


Sent from my cracked, broken hand wound phone. IG @morning_tundra

[roh123]

I think there are a lot more sellers than buyers for ”normal” pieces in this market. Expectations are crazy among many of the sellers and record prices are looked at as the new normal rather than just record prices. Many collectors are now semi-dealers and no one can even imagine losing money on a watch.

The real demand is mostly for top pieces and these often trade privately between collectors at high prices. The biggest problem here is that the people holding these rarely want to part with them.

I think the prices will differentiate between great and anything not great condition. Premiums for great pieces of great models will continue up but other than that prices may move down. I doubt we will see a crash of some sort unless we see a financial crisis but I believe the market will become sluggish until expectations catch up to the real demand. I feel for those that rushed into the market and bought average or only good examples at peak prices.

Of course just me speculating. I just don’t see many new collectors starting off with 30-40k half good pieces. Each to their own..

[michael23]

Originally Posted by 1William

I believe that watches that are unique and/or have providence will continue to hold or increase in value. I think most of this collecting is speculation and investment. I also think that the market will diminish over the next decade as people tire of items that are out of the price range of reasonable. If you reflect on the automobile market the same could be said. Look at what happen to the Corvette prices of the late 80's to early mid 90's. Some of this is generational but most of it is monetary and I already see people getting bored with the hype and prices.

In my opinion the comparison in market between vintage watches and cars are not quite the same. A vintage watch can tell the time pretty much just as well as any modern watches which is the main purpose of a watch. Vintage cars however have no where near the same functionalities and comfort that people want in modern cars. For example I love the looks of vintage cars but I will never buy one because I want all the things that modern cars offers that vintage ones just doesn't. A vintage watch however, for me, is much nicer than modern ones and also you are not sacrificing any functionalities compared to modern watches.

This is one of the reason why I think vintage watches will continue to increase in price and popularity.

[john30]

I agree with many posts that the top examples will continue to increase in price. I do not see any half good vintage pieces decline in value though. They will still go up in price just at slower rate than the top top examples.

[andy2518]

I always think that the auction houses always get the best prices for thier watches. If you look at the sales items on this forum there are examples of equal quality however demand a lower price tag. I also agree that the best examples of rare watches will always keep breaking records but hopefully the 10-30k band will soften meaning there are more for the genuine enthusiasts

[ksing]

Originally Posted by andy2518

I always think that the auction houses always get the best prices for thier watches. If you look at the sales items on this forum there are examples of equal quality however demand a lower price tag. I also agree that the best examples of rare watches will always keep breaking records but hopefully the 10-30k band will soften meaning there are more for the genuine enthusiasts

Auction house get the best prices but it also shows us what people are willing to pay. In this case, that people are already paying up to 336K for a good condition 6239 PN.