Will Pateks keep dropping?

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by edhahn44

Looking at the prices reached at the ongoing NY auction, it seems the correction for the hyped sport models and the less popular dress and vintage watches is rather steep. Not only when looking at PP though.


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Prices still seem pretty strong to me.
5711 $168k
5740 $312k

[edhahn44]

Originally Posted by Russell996

Prices still seem pretty strong to me.
5711 $168k
5740 $312k

5712 for USD 138k
5140 for USD 37k
5711r for USD 200k
15202 for USD 88k
Lange Referenzuhr USD 44k

You can of course argue that these are still strong price levels (especially vs retail) but definitely a steep correction vs prices fetched not too long ago.


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[Mattt]

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

There’s a 5168G sitting in Moda at $98k.

That seems like a bargain. What year / condition?

I've seen some "baits" also being thrown by some dealers, offering "deals" but the watches are badly polished, in bad conditions, etc. I see them selling really fast when offering this sort of things.

Beware of the "deals", I always window shop vintage pieces and I've noticed this trend lately.

[AbeFroman]

Originally Posted by Mattt

That seems like a bargain. What year / condition?

I've seen some "baits" also being thrown by some dealers, offering "deals" but the watches are badly polished, in bad conditions, etc. I see them selling really fast when offering this sort of things.

Screenshot from this morning.




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[Mattt]

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

Screenshot from this morning.




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That's super cheap compared to the other listings. It seems like Moda is offering wholesale prices. I just saw some guy comment on another thread stating he sold and now will buy a 5712 on that group. Call me old fashion but wiring hundred thousand of dollars over FB deals is something I'll never do.

[AbeFroman]

Originally Posted by Mattt

That's super cheap compared to the other listings. It seems like Moda is offering wholesale prices. I just saw some guy comment on another thread stating he sold and now will buy a 5712 on that group. Call me old fashion but wiring hundred thousand of dollars over FB deals is something I'll never do.

Moda is technically wholesale. It’s just dealers selling to each other.

I personally wouldn’t buy anything in there either. I’m too meticulous and don’t like my watches going through many hands prior to purchase, but I can see the appeal of the group for others.

[Patek_collector]

Originally Posted by edhahn44

5712 for USD 138k
5140 for USD 37k
5711r for USD 200k
15202 for USD 88k
Lange Referenzuhr USD 44k

You can of course argue that these are still strong price levels (especially vs retail) but definitely a steep correction vs prices fetched not too long ago.


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huge drop for the 15202... did not expect that.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Patek_collector

huge drop for the 15202... did not expect that.

what is that like a 60ish % drop? i think it was one of the most overpriced but still definitely unexpected given what other premiums are still at and with it just being impossible to get anyway

[DonLee]

Originally Posted by huncho

what is that like a 60ish % drop? i think it was one of the most overpriced but still definitely unexpected given what other premiums are still at and with it just being impossible to get anyway

60% drop? that would imply prices were 220+k.

but are there buyers fee on top?

[Moondoggy]

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

Moda is technically wholesale. It’s just dealers selling to each other.

I personally wouldn’t buy anything in there either. I’m too meticulous and don’t like my watches going through many hands prior to purchase, but I can see the appeal of the group for others.

the way those dealers handle the watches is appalling, like they are sorting potatoes.

[AbeFroman]

Originally Posted by moondoggy

the way those dealers handle the watches is appalling, like they are sorting potatoes.

100%!

[Nicof]

Originally Posted by huncho

what is that like a 60ish % drop? i think it was one of the most overpriced but still definitely unexpected given what other premiums are still at and with it just being impossible to get anyway

Isn’t it more like a 20 maybe 25% drop? Haven’t been following the prices that closely though so could be wrong.


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[321Forever]

There was an interview in The NY Times with an economist last week, who talked about the “everything” bubble. Said all assets are in a bubble now v the past where it was tied to a particular sector. She blamed low interest rates as a factor with a lot of cash going into the economy, but that the added cash wasn’t invested well. So she predicts a big dip across the board…in housing, and by implication things like luxury goods.

I agree that the low supply of PP watches helps them retain value, but with a recession, there will be people who need to get cash out of their assets, including their watches. So, it may be that the supply increases enough to push prices back down to a more normal predicted growth rate.

I like my PP watches (5167/1A and 5227G white dial) too much to part with them, but I do realize that I will not get as much cash out of them for quite some time. …and for the 5227, I’m still underwater.

[321Forever]

There was an interview in The NY Times with an economist last week, who talked about the “everything” bubble. Said all assets are in a bubble now v the past where it was tied to a particular sector. She blamed low interest rates as a factor with a lot of cash going into the economy, but that the added cash wasn’t invested well. So she predicts a big dip across the board…in housing, and by implication things like luxury goods.

I agree that the low supply of PP watches helps them retain value, but with a recession, there will be people who need to get cash out of their assets, including their watches. So, it may be that the supply increases enough to push prices back down to a more normal predicted growth rate.

I like my PP watches (5167/1A and 5227G white dial) too much to part with them, but I do realize that I will not get as much cash out of them for quite some time. …and for the 5227, I’m still underwater.

[DK7]

Originally Posted by jakemeister

There was an interview in The NY Times with an economist last week, who talked about the “everything” bubble. Said all assets are in a bubble now v the past where it was tied to a particular sector. She blamed low interest rates as a factor with a lot of cash going into the economy, but that the added cash wasn’t invested well. So she predicts a big dip across the board…in housing, and by implication things like luxury goods.

I agree that the low supply of PP watches helps them retain value, but with a recession, there will be people who need to get cash out of their assets, including their watches. So, it may be that the supply increases enough to push prices back down to a more normal predicted growth rate.

I like my PP watches (5167/1A and 5227G white dial) too much to part with them, but I do realize that I will not get as much cash out of them for quite some time. …and for the 5227, I’m still underwater.

wishful thinking from some people who would like to buy cheaper whether it actually happens is rather questionable

[multimedia]

Originally Posted by DK7

wishful thinking from some people who would like to buy cheaper whether it actually happens is rather questionable

So you're saying it's not already happening? Look at (when it comes to these silly watches of ours) how the prices of watches being sold from greys have already come down (for some models more than 50% and more, from the top). I'm guessing no one belives that the actual MRSP price will come down, and that's not the case when talking about "keep dropping". It's the grey market/flippers, that's where we have already seen a pretty big difference. Are prices still high, yes. Will they keep dropping, yes, IMHO they will. But again, prices at AD will obviously not be affected.

When it comes to other things mentioned, housing etc we have already seen indications that those are dropping as well. As they should when interest rates are raised, inflation is soaring and some countries are technically already in a recession (depends on how you calculate).

IMO, we haven't seen half of what is coming. As mentioned in other threads, people will unfortunately get squeezed out there. And that’s much, much more concerning when compared to our (again) silly watches.

Cheers,
Joe

[Nicof]

Originally Posted by multimedia

So you're saying it's not already happening? Look at (when it comes to these silly watches of ours) how the prices of watches being sold from greys have already come down (for some models more than 50% and more, from the top). I'm guessing no one belives that the actual MRSP price will come down, and that's not the case when talking about "keep dropping". It's the grey market/flippers, that's where we have already seen a pretty big difference. Are prices still high, yes. Will they keep dropping, yes, IMHO they will. But again, prices at AD will obviously not be affected.

When it comes to other things mentioned, housing etc we have already seen indications that those are dropping as well. As they should when interest rates are raised, inflation is soaring and some countries are technically already in a recession (depends on how you calculate).

IMO, we haven't seen half of what is coming. As mentioned in other threads, people will unfortunately get squeezed out there. And that’s much, much more concerning when compared to our (again) silly watches.

Cheers,
Joe

I’d agree with this.

Out of curiosity I’ve been testing the waters with my 15202st and I’ve had exactly Zero interest in it. At any price. Nobody even wants to stock it.

So yeah prices are coming down and this is just the beginning probably.


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[IBDOC]

Originally Posted by DK7

wishful thinking from some people who would like to buy cheaper whether it actually happens is rather questionable

I wonder who’s actually doing the wishful thinking here. Actual price points where transactions are happening are clearly and widely down from the top.

Blue VCOS 4500V gone from $70k+ to less than $35K, Rolex WG Smurf gone under retail, 15202 from 100k+ to less than 70, 5711/5712 from $150K to no takers at 110-120, etc. No stop in sight and dealers who are reluctant to take in anything but selling on commission.

I agree with the general sentiment here, prices are coming down and that’s a good thing for real watch enthusiasts.

[HMHM]

Originally Posted by IBDOC

I wonder who’s actually doing the wishful thinking here. Actual price points where transactions are happening are clearly and widely down from the top.

Blue VCOS 4500V gone from $70k+ to less than $35K, Rolex WG Smurf gone under retail, 15202 from 100k+ to less than 70, 5711/5712 from $150K to no takers at 110-120, etc. No stop in sight and dealers who are reluctant to take in anything but selling on commission.

I agree with the general sentiment here, prices are coming down and that’s a good thing for real watch enthusiasts.

Overall there’s always a silver lining for everything in life. I’m sure most of us here still have watches we want. If prices go down further and the investment bros leave the market, hopefully there are opportunities for people to buy and own something they want.

[Incroyable12]

Do you think the vintage Patek market will be affected as well?

[SoylentGreenChi]

Originally Posted by jakemeister

I like my PP watches (5167/1A and 5227G white dial) too much to part with them, but I do realize that I will not get as much cash out of them for quite some time. …and for the 5227, I’m still underwater.

That’s such a perfect combination, the 5167a and the 5227. With that duo, you’re set for life, everything else is gravy. I love the 5227 so much I just asked my AD to get me a white dial (I have the black). The case and lugs on the 5227 are exquisite.

Also, at my large AD on Saturday, zero items in the case except for a handful of ladies watches with diamonds. That’s still much worse from even 8 months ago, so still I wait for the return to even the craziness of last summer.

[mongrelnomoad]

Originally Posted by jakemeister

There was an interview in The NY Times with an economist last week, who talked about the “everything” bubble. Said all assets are in a bubble now v the past where it was tied to a particular sector. She blamed low interest rates as a factor with a lot of cash going into the economy, but that the added cash wasn’t invested well. So she predicts a big dip across the board…in housing, and by implication things like luxury goods.

Yeah. Many of us have been calling this dynamic for nearly two decades now.

Irony is they're jacking up rates when much of the inflationary pressures are supply-side, not when the liquidity sloshing around, and the search for yield, was pumping up everything that wasn't counted in the CPI.

If you're not leveraged, not a big deal. If you are... good luck to you.

[joa]

Originally Posted by jakemeister

but that the added cash wasn’t invested well.

Stanley Druckenmiller mentioned this in the past few years as well. Malinvestment everywhere you look.

However, of the various things one can own, the value preservation of a Patek Philippe watch is probably "kind of" ok over time..

[321Forever]

Originally Posted by SoylentGreenChi

That’s such a perfect combination, the 5167a and the 5227. With that duo, you’re set for life, everything else is gravy. I love the 5227 so much I just asked my AD to get me a white dial (I have the black). The case and lugs on the 5227 are exquisite.

Thanks! I got lucky.

It wasn’t that long ago when in a prior softening that PP lowered prices. It’s not an impossibility.

I’t would be nice to see dealers having inventory on the floor again. When I got my 5167 in Singapore, one dealer had the 5167, a 5711 white dial, and both white and black dial SS Daytonas for the taking (pre-ceramic) and all had discounts on them. I’m sure many of your remember this era as the norm and not the exception.

[Coolcamden]

One thing though… is no matter how diversified your portfolio is, your investments and disposable fun fund is also downwardly affected, which shrinks your target line accordingly.

[321Forever]

As someone who constantly bitches about the "Incoming..." threads being a sign of general boasting, etc., I look forward to seeing them mention getting great discounts, too. "Snagged this NIB 5711 at 15% off MSRP!"

[pav333hp]

Well... Interesting thread... Also, this just popped up on watchbox: https://www.thewatchbox.com/shop/4692919.html

5711 olive green dial with diamond bezel for $1M

[Incroyable12]

Originally Posted by joa

Stanley Druckenmiller mentioned this in the past few years as well. Malinvestment everywhere you look.

However, of the various things one can own, the value preservation of a Patek Philippe watch is probably "kind of" ok over time..

Druckenmiller's wife is actually a highly esteemed vintage jewelry/watch dealer in NYC:

https://fd-gallery.com/

[llngoc]

Originally Posted by IBDOC

I wonder who’s actually doing the wishful thinking here. Actual price points where transactions are happening are clearly and widely down from the top.

Blue VCOS 4500V gone from $70k+ to less than $35K, Rolex WG Smurf gone under retail, 15202 from 100k+ to less than 70, 5711/5712 from $150K to no takers at 110-120, etc. No stop in sight and dealers who are reluctant to take in anything but selling on commission.

I agree with the general sentiment here, prices are coming down and that’s a good thing for real watch enthusiasts.

Is the price depicted here a prediction or is the dealer selling a NOS 15202 for under $70k and a new VCOS for under $35k?

If it is true, I would be interested in a blue dial Jumbo. PM?

[321Forever]

Originally Posted by llngoc

Is the price depicted here a prediction or is the dealer selling a NOS 15202 for under $70k and a new VCOS for under $35k?

If it is true, I would be interested in a blue dial Jumbo. PM?

No pain, no gain. The sellers need to be in a ton of pain due to sustained devaluation before you have your gain.