The Rolex Forums   The Rolex Watch

ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX


Go Back   Rolex Forums - Rolex Watch Forum > Rolex & Tudor Watch Topics > Rolex General Discussion

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 19 June 2018, 02:07 AM   #1
prefontaine
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: Carmel-by-the-Sea
Posts: 28
PSA: The Daytona costs about $12,000

And, during the next recession, you will be able to buy a brand new one for about $10,000.

This has been a public service announcement from your friendly local TRF economist.
prefontaine is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19 June 2018, 02:08 AM   #2
gooter
"TRF" Member
 
gooter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Canada
Posts: 157
I should hire you to manage my portfolio!
gooter is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19 June 2018, 02:10 AM   #3
Quamby
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 307
Quote:
Originally Posted by prefontaine View Post
And, during the next recession, you will be able to buy a brand new one for about $10,000.

This has been a public service announcement from your friendly local TRF economist.
Mon ami,

When will the next recession be?
Quamby is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19 June 2018, 02:11 AM   #4
prefontaine
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: Carmel-by-the-Sea
Posts: 28
Ask ten economists, get fifteen different answers. ;-)

But probably within 5 years. Seems more likely to be a business cycle contraction than a serious recession.
prefontaine is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19 June 2018, 02:12 AM   #5
Chewbacca
Banned
 
Join Date: May 2012
Real Name: CJ
Location: Kashyyyk
Watch: Kessel Run Chrono
Posts: 21,113
Finally. Some good news.
Chewbacca is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19 June 2018, 02:15 AM   #6
SG56
2024 Pledge Member
 
SG56's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Tampa
Watch: SD4K
Posts: 2,674
Quote:
Originally Posted by prefontaine View Post
Ask ten economists, get fifteen different answers. ;-)

But probably within 5 years. Seems more likely to be a business cycle contraction than a serious recession.
Great post!

People don't realize that the economy has cycles.

I'm bad with economy, but if i remember one thing from the class, it's the cycles :)

Also worth noting, when it hits, will we all have jobs and have $10k to spare on a watch :D
__________________
Sea-Dweller 116600 - the manly one
GMT II 16710 - the manly one
Daytona 116500 - the manly-womanly one
Yacht-Master 268622 - the chick version
Speedy Mitsukoshi <3
Tag Heuer Aquaracer WAF141C.BA0824 - the chick version

Thank you logan5tx!!! Have to link it. Too long for the signature.
https://www.rolexforums.com/showpost...0&postcount=14
SG56 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19 June 2018, 02:24 AM   #7
Mik8yu
"TRF" Member
 
Mik8yu's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2017
Location: Hong kong
Posts: 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by SG56 View Post
Great post!

People don't realize that the economy has cycles.

I'm bad with economy, but if i remember one thing from the class, it's the cycles :)

Also worth noting, when it hits, will we all have jobs and have $10k to spare on a watch :D


Which is why it’s important to buy a watch that you like, at a price you deem fit and forget about the latter


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Mik8yu is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19 June 2018, 02:26 AM   #8
dmash
"TRF" Member
 
dmash's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: USA <> BKK
Posts: 5,912
Quote:
Originally Posted by SG56 View Post
Great post!

People don't realize that the economy has cycles.

I'm bad with economy, but if i remember one thing from the class, it's the cycles :)

Also worth noting, when it hits, will we all have jobs and have $10k to spare on a watch :D
Every single time the market is hot, without fail, an abundance of people will think in their head 'oh this time is different' and it's not coming back down for a long while. Hence the people buying $20k Daytonas right now. If they didn't buy that watch to keep long term, they're going to be crying in a few years.

Every. Single. Time.
dmash is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19 June 2018, 02:30 AM   #9
SG56
2024 Pledge Member
 
SG56's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Tampa
Watch: SD4K
Posts: 2,674
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mik8yu View Post
Which is why it’s important to buy a watch that you like, at a price you deem fit and forget about the latter


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I know, but i'm not paying for the Daytona over msrp. I can wait.

Rolex better up their shelf stock before the next recession hits.
__________________
Sea-Dweller 116600 - the manly one
GMT II 16710 - the manly one
Daytona 116500 - the manly-womanly one
Yacht-Master 268622 - the chick version
Speedy Mitsukoshi <3
Tag Heuer Aquaracer WAF141C.BA0824 - the chick version

Thank you logan5tx!!! Have to link it. Too long for the signature.
https://www.rolexforums.com/showpost...0&postcount=14
SG56 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19 June 2018, 02:31 AM   #10
SG56
2024 Pledge Member
 
SG56's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Tampa
Watch: SD4K
Posts: 2,674
Quote:
Originally Posted by dmash View Post
Every single time the market is hot, without fail, an abundance of people will think in their head 'oh this time is different' and it's not coming back down for a long while. Hence the people buying $20k Daytonas right now. If they didn't buy that watch to keep long term, they're going to be crying in a few years.

Every. Single. Time.
Yep, couldn't have said it better!
__________________
Sea-Dweller 116600 - the manly one
GMT II 16710 - the manly one
Daytona 116500 - the manly-womanly one
Yacht-Master 268622 - the chick version
Speedy Mitsukoshi <3
Tag Heuer Aquaracer WAF141C.BA0824 - the chick version

Thank you logan5tx!!! Have to link it. Too long for the signature.
https://www.rolexforums.com/showpost...0&postcount=14
SG56 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19 June 2018, 02:55 AM   #11
rolexpatek363
"TRF" Member
 
rolexpatek363's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: up a hill
Posts: 1,610
Quote:
Originally Posted by dmash View Post
Every single time the market is hot, without fail, an abundance of people will think in their head 'oh this time is different' and it's not coming back down for a long while. Hence the people buying $20k Daytonas right now. If they didn't buy that watch to keep long term, they're going to be crying in a few years.

Every. Single. Time.
Remember the 16600 Seadweller craze, and the green glass Milgauss craze....?
rolexpatek363 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19 June 2018, 02:58 AM   #12
101031-28
"TRF" Member
 
101031-28's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: USA
Watch: 1665
Posts: 4,736
Quote:
Originally Posted by prefontaine View Post
And, during the next recession, you will be able to buy a brand new one for about $10,000.

This has been a public service announcement from your friendly local TRF economist.
That is why I never buy above retail. Never have, never will.
__________________
He could not just wear a watch. It had to be a Rolex.

Ian Fleming
101031-28 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19 June 2018, 03:01 AM   #13
Chadridv
2024 Pledge Member
 
Chadridv's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Real Name: Chadri
Location: LI, NY
Watch: 116610LV
Posts: 11,322
Quote:
Originally Posted by dmash View Post
Every single time the market is hot, without fail, an abundance of people will think in their head 'oh this time is different' and it's not coming back down for a long while. Hence the people buying $20k Daytonas right now. If they didn't buy that watch to keep long term, they're going to be crying in a few years.

Every. Single. Time.
I'll be keeping my watch long term... and crying
Chadridv is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19 June 2018, 03:04 AM   #14
Ballzzz
2024 Pledge Member
 
Ballzzz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: NY
Posts: 2,467
I love 12k daytona's, you know a place? lOl

All jokes aside I agree with the OP and many here forget this.
__________________
Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius and a lot of courage to move in the opposite direction. - Albert Einstein
Ballzzz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19 June 2018, 03:05 AM   #15
gccmd
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Arizona
Posts: 441
Quote:
Originally Posted by 101031-28 View Post
That is why I never buy above retail. Never have, never will.
I’m exactly the same
gccmd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19 June 2018, 03:08 AM   #16
m j b
"TRF" Member
 
m j b's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Real Name: Michael
Location: RTP, NC, USA
Watch: ♕& Ω
Posts: 5,070
The investment gurus that I follow seem to agree that a recession in the USA is going to be here in two years. Maybe sooner (my take) if the trade wars escalate.

That said; most of the folks who buy new Rolexes are not the type who get laid off in a recession. Sure, our investments may decline and for some, income may drop, but we'll still be employed. So I don't see the sale of new luxury items being affected. Secondary markets, sure.
__________________
Enjoy life - it has an expiration date.


Disclaimer: Please note that the avatar is not an accurate representation of how I look. The camera adds 10 pounds...
m j b is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19 June 2018, 03:10 AM   #17
dmash
"TRF" Member
 
dmash's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: USA <> BKK
Posts: 5,912
Quote:
Originally Posted by m j b View Post
The investment gurus that I follow seem to agree that a recession in the USA is going to be here in two years. Maybe sooner (my take) if the trade wars escalate.

That said; most of the folks who buy new Rolexes are not the type who get laid off in a recession. Sure, our investments may decline and for some, income may drop, but we'll still be employed. So I don't see the sale of new luxury items being affected. Secondary markets, sure.
You’re hanging out too much on a forum and not looking at the real world

Luxury items like watches, handbags, sunglasses etc etc etc are wholly bought by the middle class to exude a sense of wealth. A LOT of Rolex buyers have only one, and save up for a long time to get it.



However yes, been chirping on here for months that the pullback is coming within 2-3 years.
dmash is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19 June 2018, 03:18 AM   #18
79280_116520
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: Costa
Posts: 255
are you the same guy wasting time going around to million dollar open houses in the SF Bay Area offering $100K in cash telling the realtors that the recession "is coming"?
79280_116520 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19 June 2018, 03:20 AM   #19
Lordofrolex
"TRF" Member
 
Lordofrolex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Real Name: Brandon
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Watch: Yes Please!
Posts: 6,690
I you have cash on hand a recession is a good thing. Get ready to buy an income property.
__________________
Rolex GMT Master II 116710LN
Panerai PAM 359
Audemars Piguet RO 15300OR


Follow me on Instagram: @b_jakobovich
Lordofrolex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19 June 2018, 03:21 AM   #20
sensui
2024 Pledge Member
 
sensui's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Location: San Diego, CA
Posts: 12,344
Quote:
Originally Posted by dmash View Post
Every single time the market is hot, without fail, an abundance of people will think in their head 'oh this time is different' and it's not coming back down for a long while. Hence the people buying $20k Daytonas right now. If they didn't buy that watch to keep long term, they're going to be crying in a few years.

Every. Single. Time.
I don't claim to have a crystal ball....But have collected many things in my life...This stuff happens but I think the other spectrum happens just as often...the "I wish I could have bought it back then....." or "I thought it was ridiculous when.....I should've etc."

Not saying this is one of those things, just saying nothing is for certain.
sensui is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19 June 2018, 03:29 AM   #21
prefontaine
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: Carmel-by-the-Sea
Posts: 28
http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions_faq.html
prefontaine is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19 June 2018, 03:56 AM   #22
Fat_ninja
Banned
 
Join Date: May 2018
Real Name: Jonathan
Location: USA
Watch: P-01
Posts: 11,772
Quote:
Originally Posted by gooter View Post
I should hire you to manage my portfolio!
Before or after?
Fat_ninja is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19 June 2018, 04:03 AM   #23
RobearH
Banned
 
Join Date: May 2013
Real Name: Robear
Location: Come and Take It!
Watch: 126710 BLRO
Posts: 1,632
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ballzzz View Post
I love 12k daytona's, you know a place? lOl

All jokes aside I agree with the OP and many here forget this.
I read of an AD in Florida that had one...but sadly now its for sale on TRF for $18995!!!

Sorry I missed the all jokes aside part.
RobearH is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19 June 2018, 04:13 AM   #24
MonsterSS
2024 Pledge Member
 
MonsterSS's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Real Name: Denny
Location: Texas
Watch: 126613LB
Posts: 1,191
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chewbacca View Post
Finally. Some good news.
MonsterSS is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19 June 2018, 04:16 AM   #25
jb335
2024 Pledge Member
 
jb335's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: The States
Watch: Cosmograph Daytona
Posts: 6,649
Can you make a PSA on when the CA-1 will open up past Gorda?

Thanks
jb335 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19 June 2018, 04:20 AM   #26
SoCal_Batman
"TRF" Member
 
SoCal_Batman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
Real Name: C.R.
Location: Los Angeles
Watch: ♛ BLNR | AK
Posts: 1,029
We’re long overdue for a correction.
__________________
"The more I see, the less I know for sure." - John Lennon
SoCal_Batman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19 June 2018, 04:23 AM   #27
Ballzzz
2024 Pledge Member
 
Ballzzz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: NY
Posts: 2,467
Quote:
Originally Posted by RobearH View Post
I read of an AD in Florida that had one...but sadly now its for sale on TRF for $18995!!!

Sorry I missed the all jokes aside part.
__________________
Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius and a lot of courage to move in the opposite direction. - Albert Einstein
Ballzzz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19 June 2018, 04:34 AM   #28
OgSnowflake
Banned
 
Join Date: May 2016
Real Name: Steve
Location: Massachusetts
Posts: 506
I’d bet a grey market ceramic Daytona doesn’t exchange hands for less than 15k bucks for as long as all of us are alive with the exception of like a Vegas pawn shop/owing Leslie chow 80k bucks situation.
OgSnowflake is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19 June 2018, 04:34 AM   #29
SG56
2024 Pledge Member
 
SG56's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Tampa
Watch: SD4K
Posts: 2,674
Quote:
Originally Posted by RobearH View Post
I read of an AD in Florida that had one...but sadly now its for sale on TRF for $18995!!!

Sorry I missed the all jokes aside part.
Hahahahaha!

That thread makes me wanna puke. for real.
__________________
Sea-Dweller 116600 - the manly one
GMT II 16710 - the manly one
Daytona 116500 - the manly-womanly one
Yacht-Master 268622 - the chick version
Speedy Mitsukoshi <3
Tag Heuer Aquaracer WAF141C.BA0824 - the chick version

Thank you logan5tx!!! Have to link it. Too long for the signature.
https://www.rolexforums.com/showpost...0&postcount=14
SG56 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19 June 2018, 04:40 AM   #30
climblaw25
"TRF" Member
 
climblaw25's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: location location
Watch: too much Netflix
Posts: 429
Quote:
Originally Posted by 101031-28 View Post
That is why I never buy above retail. Never have, never will.


Agreed!!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
climblaw25 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Takuya Watches

Bobs Watches

My Watch LLC

OCWatches

DavidSW Watches

Coronet


*Banners Of The Month*
This space is provided to horological resources.





Copyright ©2004-2024, The Rolex Forums. All Rights Reserved.

ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX

Rolex is a registered trademark of ROLEX USA. The Rolex Forums is not affiliated with ROLEX USA in any way.