What does late summer and fall look like? - Predictions

[Oystersteel92]

I'm a news junkie. Can't help myself, and I have business ties to some folks in Seattle and so was following Covid 19 long before most people and the media. I started actively prepping in mid-February and encouraged my family to do the same. I've continued following this story from financial and political perspectives ever since, and I feel like we're starting to get a better picture of what the financial fall out is going to be, and it's not good. This article sourced from the Wall Street Journal today sums it up pretty well, I think.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...fe/ar-BB12Cfqa

This emergency is going to result in paradigm shift when it comes to working and doing business, and like most paradigm shifts there is going to be a lot of denial and folks that want things to go back to the way they were. Businesses that survive are going to do a lot of soul searching regarding their processes and labor requirements and it will take a long time, probably several years, for things to settle down and for people to adapt, especially as they're pushed out of legacy businesses and before new businesses ramp up to replace them.

If you've ever dealt with people who have been through serious emergencies, or disasters, for some time after they will be incredibly gun shy and unsettled. Things that they would have taken in stride before will disturb them greatly, and this will influence their financial decisions. People that keep their jobs, or have significant resources, will likely become very conservative as people and businesses they know don't bounce back financially.

My feeling is that by late summer, into fall, we'll see the following:

1. Rolex will resume production as soon as feasible. They may cut back some in overall volume, but they have a skilled work force they've spent time and money building, and will be reluctant to let them go. Keeping them in place means turning out product.

2. ADs will have significant stock, and it will make it into display cases with the exception of 1 or 2 models. Those models will stay in the safe, but be readily offered to customers that sales persons judge to be serious buyers. Wait lists will be very short or non-existent.

3. Discounting on PM watches, Datejusts, ladies models, YMII etc will come back significantly. ADs will be very reluctant to discount SS sports models, but will have a variety to choose from at MSRP. On occasion they might be willing to discount those at the end of a sales period or if they become very tight on operating capital.

4. Preowned models will be sold to raise cash in significant quantities. Rolexes largely appeal to a managerial/professional class, and as some of these jobs go away or don't come back, property will begin to be sold. The 80's Day-Date you inherited from your dad and that your wife won't let you wear because she thinks it's "gross" will be sold to a GM dealer for $4000 and be offered for $6 or $7k. Even serious enthusiasts, with multiple watches, are likely to consider thinning the herd if their cash flow is restricted severely.

This is just how I see it, but I'd love to hear any predictions my fellow Rolex enthusiasts would like to add.

[THC]

Nice post OP, but given the global current status, there is far more in the interim to worry about.

Deals can be had, I bet, if one has the means to buy right now.

[locutus49]

Many people will predict the future. And be wrong. I found it is safer to predict the past.

[Amochosto]

Originally Posted by locutus49

Many people will predict the future. And be wrong. I found it is safer to predict the past.

You hit the nail on the head!

[Nixshah]

Nobody can predict these things accurately. Too many variable to account for...my humble advice is focus on the health and well-being of your loved ones. Rolex and other watches will still be available when this is behind us. Maybe circumstances will dictate different prices, maybe they won’t. Much bigger issues at hand.

[dtwer]

In the long river of human history, what we have experienced is but a blip. There would unlikely be a paradigm shift; in a couple years this would all be a distant memory. The human race and the society as a whole have short memory.

[christosterone]

My wife is a level I trauma ER MD, FACEP

She and most of our friends(in north Texas) don’t know yet...
Only that it will be much less devastating than New York...’

Ironically, many of our ER friends are taking pay cuts or flat out losing their jobs...
The ers are at 55% capacity and can’t pay their doctors....especially free standing clinics..

The entire landscape of our wonderful medical system may or may not be the same...like;y smaller markets (think of clinics between Amarillo and Lubbock) will not survive...

And this is to say nothing of the lack of normal medical maintenance on people who would otherwise age well...many will now have a shortened life thanks to missing diagnosis out of fear of covid19...
It’s a valid fear but things may never return to as they were..

-chris