Talking Stocks 2.0

[JParm]

Originally Posted by JWD531

TRBCX and FBGRX are good growth fund options.

I think if you’re 100% into a VFAIX, that’s too conservative for me as a late-30’s. But I think that getting started, getting it into anything stable is alright. At least until one learns about the other options.

But yes, I’d recommend a more aggressive portfolio for someone in their 20’s. Without knowing anything about their financial situation.


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Agree with this - I'm 36 and pretty aggressive; wish I was even more aggressive in my 20's.

That doesn't mean make dumb decisions, but it also doesn't mean you shouldn't be afraid of stock picking if you're going after blue chips like AMZN, GOOGL, etc. ETFs are even safer, so I would pick a more aggressive one at that age.

[JWD531]

Ya, I was way too conservative when I started, AND I spent too much of my money in my 20’s. But I am making up for it now! I plan to be aggressive for quite a while.


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[JParm]

Originally Posted by JWD531

Ya, I was way too conservative when I started, AND I spent too much of my money in my 20’s. But I am making up for it now! I plan to be aggressive for quite a while.


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Indeed.

[sokoloka]

Originally Posted by JWD531

Ya, I was way too conservative when I started, AND I spent too much of my money in my 20’s. But I am making up for it now! I plan to be aggressive for quite a while.

33 now - was inconsistent with investing and randomly TOO aggressive when I was younger; definitely let some dollars fly but now I'm sticking to one or two big speculative plays and taking any gains and folding them back into my automatic VFIAX buys.

Doing all of this taxable account as well so probably should look into tax advantaged stuff more but c'est la vie. Here's to trying to make your money work as hard as you do!

[trippinjimmy]

Originally Posted by austinp

Is VFAIX too conservative for a 20 to 30 year hold? Return looks to be way under the averages. Isn’t a more aggressive fund more appropriate for such a long term horizon?


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I don’t think there’s anything wrong with this approach (although I’d prefer voo), but I’d augment safety with growth preferably with names rather than funds. If you don’t want to pick stocks and funds are your game, spyg, voog, and fdn are options.

I think we’re going sideways to down 10% in the short term before we rally to 4000-4200 in next 18 months or so.

I’m investing small amounts weekly and saving for the next pullback when I’ll go in heavy.


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[-dustin]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...?siteid=yhoof2

articles like this really do a good job showing how much speculation is out there.

[yoast]

Originally Posted by sokoloka

I like VFIAX for the simplicity, lower net expense ratio and the slightly higher dividend yield compared to some of the others out there.

I invest a fixed amount into VFIAX on a weekly basis (every Tuesday) and then also roll any of my more speculative gains into it as well.

Originally Posted by kearez

My core holding is VOO, been looking to add QQQ/VGT. VFIAX is another great option.

Originally Posted by austinp

Is VFAIX too conservative for a 20 to 30 year hold? Return looks to be way under the averages. Isn’t a more aggressive fund more appropriate for such a long term horizon?


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Originally Posted by -dustin

Roughly 25% of my IRA is VFAIX. And I no longer contribute to it. Another 65% is VWILX and VIGAX. The rest is split into VSGAX and little sliver goes into pretty much a savings account. Advisor said at my age, there was no need to be conservative, and recommended VIGAX.

Originally Posted by mbalmz

all good options IMO. if you want to hedge some of the current tech-heaviness of VOO and VFIAX, RSP is an option as well.

Originally Posted by JWD531

TRBCX and FBGRX are good growth fund options.

I think if you’re 100% into a VFAIX, that’s too conservative for me as a late-30’s. But I think that getting started, getting it into anything stable is alright. At least until one learns about the other options.

But yes, I’d recommend a more aggressive portfolio for someone in their 20’s. Without knowing anything about their financial situation.


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Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Agree with this - I'm 36 and pretty aggressive; wish I was even more aggressive in my 20's.

That doesn't mean make dumb decisions, but it also doesn't mean you shouldn't be afraid of stock picking if you're going after blue chips like AMZN, GOOGL, etc. ETFs are even safer, so I would pick a more aggressive one at that age.

Originally Posted by trippinjimmy

I don’t think there’s anything wrong with this approach (although I’d prefer voo), but I’d augment safety with growth preferably with names rather than funds. If you don’t want to pick stocks and funds are your game, spyg, voog, and fdn are options.

I think we’re going sideways to down 10% in the short term before we rally to 4000-4200 in next 18 months or so.

I’m investing small amounts weekly and saving for the next pullback when I’ll go in heavy.


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Some really good info here, much appreciated! Will study everything mentioned and make a decision soon.

[beshannon]

Risk off this morning, Futures down -297

Reality setting in, the VIX is now at 30. This is likely to be a strange week with so many earnings coming up

Apple, Google, Dunkin' and Boeing - 5 Things You Must Know Monday

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/5-...-monday-102620

[JParm]

Huge earnings week - keeping an eye on many of these names.

Will be looking to deploy cash to companies that post excellent numbers but maybe the stock price doesn't immediately follow the way it should (e.g. price got ahead of earnings, etc.).

[beshannon]

Slight bounce at 10 failed, now rolling over down -534

I would not be surprised if this was the start of a larger down move, earnings might help individual stocks but the overall news is not good.

[JParm]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/26/reco...-punished.html

Interesting note on earnings beats / misses and the resulting stock price action this year.

[beshannon]

I will be looking to average down in some names when the selling exhausts itself.

Down 900 now

[Screwly]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Huge earnings week - keeping an eye on many of these names.

Will be looking to deploy cash to companies that post excellent numbers but maybe the stock price doesn't immediately follow the way it should (e.g. price got ahead of earnings, etc.).

You think fsly is a good buy before earnings report?

[JParm]

Originally Posted by Screwly

You think fsly is a good buy before earnings report?

To be honest, I don't know if anything is a good buy before earnings at this point.

Case in point - TWLO and TSLA - good numbers for both, yet the stocks have not moved in the way you would expect, which I think is largely due to the fact that this has been priced in / we are at the top of the 3200-3450 trading range. Online adverts (SNAP, PINS, FB) are kind of an outlier right now though with the earnings action after SNAP's numbers last week.

Long-term I think you're fine, but I'm waiting on pullbacks on everything and not jumping in before earnings. Just my strategy, mind you.

[Screwly]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

To be honest, I don't know if anything is a good buy before earnings at this point.

Case in point - TWLO and TSLA - good numbers for both, yet the stocks have not moved in the way you would expect, which I think is largely due to the fact that this has been priced in / we are at the top of the 3200-3450 trading range.

Long-term I think you're fine, but I'm waiting on pullbacks on everything and not jumping in before earnings. Just my strategy, mind you.

Gotcha and thanks for your input. Yea everything is not looking good right about now

[JWD531]

We’ll see how tomorrow plays out, but for most of the year when we have a bad Monday (2% loss or so), there’s usually a positive bounce Tuesday (not huge, but a bounce nonetheless). We’ll see how it plays out tomorrow.

Over 80% of the earnings have been positive news yet we are still selling off, so be careful.


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[cornerstore]

It used to be called Manic Monday’s - Turnaround Tuesday’s. Some believe the phenomenon is related to the Zoloft and other antidepressants traders take . There were charts that tracked efficacy times to market movements and algorithms to play it. More people, investors and trades, recently are using those types of medications so the market has not been as volatile. Crash of 87’ coincided at the height of social usage during the frantic cocaine era.

[vipereaper30]

QUOTE=cornerstore;11023198] Crash of 87’ coincided at the height of social usage during the frantic cocaine era.[/QUOTE]

I wasn't nearly old enough to be a trader back then but its interesting to compare market valuations from '87 to now. If we're on some other upper/downer binge maybe expect larger movements today?

Here's the CAPE historically:

[vipereaper30]

Tapatalk is broke, for some reason I can't upload the chart. The CAPE was at about 18 during black Monday. It's over 31 today!

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[Slimpee]

I’m jumping into this thread to learn. In college, I was involved with investing but got away I’ve the past 15 years.

I just received a chunk of money and am considering my options. I bet I can learn a lot from y’all!

[bimmer nerd]

Originally Posted by Screwly

You think fsly is a good buy before earnings report?

FYI, FSLY pre-released their earnings.

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/18043851...evenue-results

[beshannon]

Earnings rolling in, futures slightly higher

MMM beat, AMD is buying XLNX, CAT beat, PFE, LLY were mixed.

I am long PFE, MMM

[JParm]

Originally Posted by bimmer nerd

FYI, FSLY pre-released their earnings.

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/18043851...evenue-results

Yes - this was the catalyst for the drop from the 120's to where we are now - much discussed on this thread a few pages back for reference.

I'm long FSLY, having gotten into it in the low 40's and will continue to remain long, but that doesn't mean I havent reduced position size and spread the funds to more stocks (as I mentioned) to take on a bit less risk.

At one point, it was nearly 20% of my holdings, which was a bit much.

At the end of the day, I can't complain about 70%+ returns on the stock for me, even considering where we were just a couple weeks back. Long-term hold.

[kearez]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Earnings rolling in, futures slightly higher

MMM beat, AMD is buying XLNX, CAT beat, PFE, LLY were mixed.

I am long PFE, MMM

Brian what are your thoughts on PFE vs ABBV?

I see ABBV as stronger growth opportunity with a solid dividend. Whilst PFE is solid dividend returns.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by kearez

Brian what are your thoughts on PFE vs ABBV?

I see ABBV as stronger growth opportunity with a solid dividend. Whilst PFE is solid dividend returns.

I am long both PFE and ABBV

I went long PFE back at the start of the COVID pandemic. I am a long term holder of ABBV for the dividend and because of my cost basis. the dividends are nice on both, PFE has not performed like I would want but I am not ready to sell it yet.

[glenn_herwig]

Long TMF into the election. I know rates are low but I think bonds will catch a bid. I still remain bullish via SPY. Going back to the mutual fund topic. Why no love for SWPPX? You get automatic investing at .02% expense ratio. That’s half the cost of Vanguard. I do like vanguard but for their etfs. That’s just me though.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by glenn_herwig

Why no love for SWPPX?

Because my goal is to beat the S&P

[bimmer nerd]

How do you guys think MSFT will do after earnings?

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by bimmer nerd

How do you guys think MSFT will do after earnings?

I think MSFT will beat and the stock will be down tomorrow

[JParm]

Nice close for tech - not so much the rest of the market.

MSFT beats on revenue and EPS, but little change on the price as of now. This seems to be the standard for most tech companies Q3 - strong beats with little price action, as earnings seem to be priced in. Only true outlier has been SNAP thus far, which again caused the subsequent rise in PINS, FB, GOOGL in the last week.

PINS reports tomorrow, with FB and GOOGL (as well as AMZN) on Thursday.