Now we can discuss the SS shortage with some more data.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by TimeToWatch

I just purchased a WG Oysteflex Daytona because I was tired of waiting for a 116500 and won't pay $18k. I know I'm not the only one who's done this. Also, how many situations have you heard of where ADs are requiring you purchase 2-3 watches before they'll sell you a Daytona, new GMT, etc... I think their strategy is definitely profiting them. While they don't profit off of the secondary market, their brand image does. As a luxury brand, that's what they care about most. This sets them up perfectly for a price increase.

Exactly

[BobDyl]

Originally Posted by TimeToWatch

I think it's a multitude of factors, however, primarily they're trying to cutout greys, boost their standing in the market place and weather the consolidation of the Swiss watch industry.



Greys

-Decreased supply and elimination of special orders of sports models means that greys will struggle to continue filling their pipelines. Rolex hates greys and will do everything they can to strangle them.



Boost standing in marketplace

-To the layman, a Rolex is the finest watch you can buy on earth. Regardless of whether this is true, Rolex is arguably the best marketed brand on Earth. With that being said, their price points are not commensurate with this reputation, being outpriced by many well known names. By decreasing supply, they increase demand and the prices will in turn rise. This will certainly bolster the perceived exclusivity of the brand and appease loyal customers who will be rewarded with these hard to attain pieces.



Weather consolidation of the Swiss watch industry

-Whether we like to admit it or not, the Swiss watch industry is facing an existential crisis. Fueled by technology, namely smartphones and smartwatches, the masses no longer have a need for a wristwatch. The market for luxury timepieces will remain, but will be much smaller. This will lead to a consolidation of brands, which only those who are prepared will survive. By decreasing supply and increasing the price points of their watches, Rolex can offset any declines in sales volume with increases in MSRP.

Well said. Bravo!


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[RHJ]

Originally Posted by Easy E

I discount myself here, but in talking to my AD last week, who claimed to have had their rep in the store, his story is simply the Asian growth. Rolex has a choice, hold the line with their current production capacity or add facilities. They believe (according to these guys) that the spike is temporary, in the grand scheme, and they dont want to drop a wad of cash into increased production, be it equipment, actual buildings, labor, materials, etc then to see the market normalize in a couple of year and be sitting on a bunch of expensive machinery and such. So far, to me, this make the most sense.

E-

this convinces me!

[cuibono]

Originally Posted by toto

At least they are not increasing prices like some believed here and there.

New GMT is $1000 more than old GMT in Canada. So new movement = price increase. So in other words, a justifiable price increase, not just a price increase across the board for no reason. Good on Rolex.

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[cuibono]

Originally Posted by karmatp

Supply will be right back to normal in time, be patient.

You :-)

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[toto]

That was what I meant.
No price increase over models that don't change.

300 € more for a SS pepsi than a BLNR in France. That's not bad for a new mouvment and a jubilee bracelet wich I assume costs more than Oyster.

[JacksonStone]

Originally Posted by toto

...jubilee bracelet wich I assume costs more than Oyster.

$100 US more, based on DJ prices.

[toto]

Thank's

[Rashid.bk]

Well I'm hoping that stock will normalize now. Though the models weren't updated, It does say "subtly redesigned" cases for the GMT2s and Subs. That cannot refer to the original change to the maxi case as that was not subtle.

So for me it means Rolex exhausted the "older case" stocks and now that Basel is here they can continue pumping out supply. This shortage didn't rear it's head until two factors: hype/rumors and limited stock. Well the low stock triggered speculation about stopping production which in turn made people suddenly run to buy. The LV case in point. Wasn't as popular in 2016 like 2017, particularly the end. Now all those selling LVCs for $11k are gonna take a dump because most will want the new new...plus the case is "improved" to better proportions.

I think by mid 2018, we will see more stock on the shelves finally, and a lot of rumors can die.

Albeit, now we can cue the machine again for next year.

[JacksonStone]

Originally Posted by Rashid.bk

It does say "subtly redesigned" cases for the GMT2s and Subs. That cannot refer to the original change to the maxi case as that was not subtle.

Where did you see a Sub case mod mentioned? Even among the GMTs, only the three new ones have a modded case. The existing models remain unchanged.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by JacksonStone

Where did you see a Sub case mod mentioned? Even among the GMTs, only the three new ones have a modded case. The existing models remain unchanged.

Yes, no real change.

This was always demand led, a year ago in the UK we postulated that a factory had blown up or a new range of cases were being made, but it soon became apparent that there were no real supply side changes happening and it was all just demand surging past supply.

[Car32]

Originally Posted by TimeToWatch

I think it's a multitude of factors, however, primarily they're trying to cutout greys, boost their standing in the market place and weather the consolidation of the Swiss watch industry.

Greys
-Decreased supply and elimination of special orders of sports models means that greys will struggle to continue filling their pipelines. Rolex hates greys and will do everything they can to strangle them.

Boost standing in marketplace
-To the layman, a Rolex is the finest watch you can buy on earth. Regardless of whether this is true, Rolex is arguably the best marketed brand on Earth. With that being said, their price points are not commensurate with this reputation, being outpriced by many well known names. By decreasing supply, they increase demand and the prices will in turn rise. This will certainly bolster the perceived exclusivity of the brand and appease loyal customers who will be rewarded with these hard to attain pieces.

Weather consolidation of the Swiss watch industry
-Whether we like to admit it or not, the Swiss watch industry is facing an existential crisis. Fueled by technology, namely smartphones and smartwatches, the masses no longer have a need for a wristwatch. The market for luxury timepieces will remain, but will be much smaller. This will lead to a consolidation of brands, which only those who are prepared will survive. By decreasing supply and increasing the price points of their watches, Rolex can offset any declines in sales volume with increases in MSRP.

As it relates to the Greys, Im wondering how effective it is and even if its having the opposite effect. I see grey dealers on instagram holding literally fistfuls of steel Daytonas, BLNRs, etc. Many greys seem to continue to get pieces. Why? My guess is ADs would rather sell their limited stock to a grey to a) move their slow movers cause greys will buy those too and b) they're probably selling to the greys at a premium. Thus Rolex could be helping to feed the grey market rather than strangle it.

Just a thought

[d4v3]

Originally Posted by JacksonStone

Where did you see a Sub case mod mentioned? Even among the GMTs, only the three new ones have a modded case. The existing models remain unchanged.

That is the text on the Rolex site but apparently it's old text from when they changed it previously.

[JacksonStone]

Originally Posted by d4v3

That is the text on the Rolex site but apparently it's old text from when they changed it previously.

Can you quote or link to the text you're talking about? I saw them specifically mention the case mods for the new GMTs, but didn't see references to the Subs or older GMTs.

[d4v3]

Originally Posted by JacksonStone

Can you quote or link to the text you're talking about? I saw them specifically mention the case mods for the new GMTs, but didn't see references to the Subs or older GMTs.

Look at the rolex site on the submariner page, the text is under the picure of the sub.

[grimps]

Originally Posted by Easy E

Of course, and for sure I have no idea what a grey pays for a piece. If they are not getting supplied through ADs then where do you imagine they are coming from?

Its bad enough that ADs are feeding the cat, so to speak, but they have ways to do that, like not really assign a name to the transaction, just activate the serial number and off it goes. Rolex can't really audit end user purchases, but they can for sure audit AD sales. If an AD, in the US is caught selling at over MSRP, it's lights out. The AD can set up a straw buyer of sorts, sell it to the grey at full tilt and have an back door arrangement to either split secondary sales, or just move on and accept their full bore MSRP sale and keep their pipeline open. Which is most likely the case.

I don't really care how the greys get them. For that matter I just bought 2 grey DJ41s and couldn't be happier about it. I'm just saying this whole Sport Model thing stinks and I'm not buying the "cut the greys theory." Yes, I believe if Rolex could hang 'em high on the courthouse steps they would. But, that's not the reason for the shortage. In my personal opinion.

E-

Rolex could cut the grey dealers tomorrow if they increased supply

[JacksonStone]

Originally Posted by d4v3

Look at the rolex site on the submariner page, the text is under the picure of the sub.

Thanks. I agree - I think that is old. The line appears completely unchanged: no new movements, no new or (as yet) discontinued models, and no mention of any Subs in the Basel 18 section. Sub pics appear no different, either. I confess I never paid much attention to the marketing spiel, so I never noticed the "redesign" reference before.

[toto]

Me neither.
Just like you said for quite some time now, I think we will see subtle changes to the cases with the implementation of the new 32xx movement.
It was true with SD43, DSSD, SS Pepsi...

[rudegar]

Originally Posted by karmatp

Supply will be right back to normal in time, be patient.

This

[Rashid.bk]

Originally Posted by JacksonStone

Where did you see a Sub case mod mentioned? Even among the GMTs, only the three new ones have a modded case. The existing models remain unchanged.

Here's a screen shot. I find it hard to believe that this is referring to the redesigned case from 2010. That wasn't a subtle redesign, it was a whole new watch. Why would they only hightlight the case so much when at that time, the whole watch changed, dial, bracelet and case. But this only says, "subtle redesign". I really do not call the transition from the 16610 to 116610 subtle.
Or if someone could confirm whether that description existed before today.

Even in the pictures of the GMT and the new D Blue it is a bit difficult to actually see a difference. We will see when live images start showing up. We'll see though. I was wrong about the PepC, but just trying to use common sense here.

[JacksonStone]

Originally Posted by Rashid.bk

Here's a screen shot. I find it hard to believe that this is referring to the redesigned case from 2010. That wasn't a subtle redesign, it was a whole new watch.

Rolex are pretty liberal with how they use words. Oystersteel isn't even really a thing, but that isn't stopping them from inventing the term and suddenly applying it to the same stainless steel they have been using for decades. You're seizing on one questionable phrase from their website as a basis for claiming the Sub case has been modified, when there is no other evidence it has been. This is particularly ironic given that you repeatedly criticized people here for spreading "misinformation" about the black-dial WG BLRO discontinuation when they had considerably more solid information than you do now. Where is the common sense in that?

[JacksonStone]

"With their subtly redesigned Oyster case, distinctive dial with large luminescent hour markers, graduated rotatable Ceracrhom bezel and solid link Oyster bracelet, the latest generation Submariner and Submariner Date are firmly in line with the original model launched in 1953."

As I read it, it sounds like they're comparing the current super-case design (in place since 2008) to the original 1953 design. I don't see that they're saying the Sub line has been redesigned this year, notwithstanding their use of the word "subtle," which is a completely subjective term anyway. Let's also consider that the redesigned GMT and DSSD cases also include upgraded movements. Why would Rolex redesign the entire Sub line, but not include new movements, and not mention one word of it in their Basel release information? Again...not seeing the common sense here.

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by JacksonStone

"With their subtly redesigned Oyster case, distinctive dial with large luminescent hour markers, graduated rotatable Ceracrhom bezel and solid link Oyster bracelet, the latest generation Submariner and Submariner Date are firmly in line with the original model launched in 1953."

As I read it, it sounds like they're comparing the current super-case design (in place since 2008) to the original 1953 design. I don't see that they're saying the Sub line has been redesigned this year, notwithstanding their use of the word "subtle," which is a completely subjective term anyway. Let's also consider that the redesigned GMT and DSSD cases also include upgraded movements. Why would Rolex redesign the entire Sub line, but not include new movements, and not mention one word of it in their Basel release information? Again...not seeing the common sense here.

^^Absolutely. Rolex would have announced even a micro change to the Sub line if any had occurred. There is nothing cryptic in their Submariner description.

[stainlesssteve]

It's concerning to me that the shortage turns out not to be related to model upgrades at this years Basel. It would have made a lot of sense if we saw model changes. It seems that the shortage may very well be related to demand outpacing production and supply. And if so, they still can't produce enough watches to fill dealer cases after what 6 or more months now of dealers being out?

[peacocknation]

I really don’t think this shortage is an issue of Rolex not wanting to meet the demand. Rolex is a luxury brand and luxury brands don’t want to follow the same supply/demand curves a “Normal” product will. It’s a pretty cool business model that companies like Rolex, Chanel, Cartier, etc. follow to drive insane demand and build their brand - which enables them to make money for years and years...and years.

If you go back to economics class and the supply/demand curve, the intersection of those two lines is the price at which the product sells. If Rolex increased production to meet demand, they would not be able to continue commanding such a high price for their product and would be unable to raise prices in the future (ignore inflation exists, they still would want to raise their price). That’s not to say that increasing production would be easy, but if they wanted to do it they could and they would want to do it because it would make them more money....but they don’t increase production....why?

Because Rolex, like all luxury brands, are in the business of influencing demand. Make a desirable Rolex hard to get and people are still going to want one. It drives the brand’s value up and enables price increases beyond the increase for inflation. And I wouldn’t be surprised if they sell to the AD/Gray dealers at a higher price on certain models that have super high demand.

They’re controlling supply to influence demand and maintain their position as the world’s most recognizeable luxury watch brand. It provides strength across their entire watch portfolio and ensures the company’s long term success.

[Mystro]

One thing for sure, prices are not going to go down at the AD or grey market sellers. They may stabilize at the end of the year to a new higher market set normal. In two decades of Rolex ownership, this is something I have not seen before. I remember you could wait for Basel releases to sell high at first and then they would lower to when you would purchase them. That’s the advise we would say in the “Should I buy it now?” threads from the past. Now it’s “Buy it when ever you can” for any SS model.

[Rashid.bk]

Originally Posted by JacksonStone

Rolex are pretty liberal with how they use words. Oystersteel isn't even really a thing, but that isn't stopping them from inventing the term and suddenly applying it to the same stainless steel they have been using for decades. You're seizing on one questionable phrase from their website as a basis for claiming the Sub case has been modified, when there is no other evidence it has been. This is particularly ironic given that you repeatedly criticized people here for spreading "misinformation" about the black-dial WG BLRO discontinuation when they had considerably more solid information than you do now. Where is the common sense in that?

If you read my post it is clear that I'm just making a case for the possibility. I didn't say that with 100% certainty there is an update. I even stated that I was wrong regarding the PepC prediction. I don't really care either way....I think you should relax. People are so uptight. When predictions without info and the repeated my AD said xyz without facts, that's ok....when I post what Rolex say themselves, I'm passing misinformation.

Again, reread my post and perhaps you can understand that I am just passing along info in hopes that we can put our heads together to get clarification since I don't know and I'm also curious to know. But it seems it's just marketing mumbo jumbo. I personally don't see a difference in the PepC case from the existing models either, but it's supposed to be new.

[masyv6]

Originally Posted by TimeToWatch

You don't know what greys are purchasing these watches for. You realize their cost of acquisition, if not directly through an AD, is going to be higher as well, right?

Exactly. If they aren't going through ADs, then it would be logical that the cost of flying to Switzerland and robbing the Rolex factory would be an expensive way to do things

[JacksonStone]

Originally Posted by Rashid.bk

Again, reread my post and perhaps you can understand that I am just passing along info in hopes that we can put our heads together to get clarification since I don't know and I'm also curious to know.

Fair enough. I'll put my head into the circle and reiterate what I already said: I believe if the Sub had been updated this year, it would have been shown as part of the new Basel lineup, not left to be discovered by people exploring the general model page. The whole point of Basel is to advertise the new models, so it makes no sense Rolex would omit a redesign of the entire line of one of their most iconic models. I believe the marketing blurb about a "subtle redesign" is merely trying to put the current Sub line into some historical context, especially when you consider that it actually does reference not only the case, but the maxi-dial, the ceramic bezel, the SEL bracelet, and the clasp - all the things that were hallmarks of the six-digit Subs when they first came out. Perhaps most importantly, when viewing the existing line, there is nothing new about any of the models...at all. Pics are the same; models are the same; movements are the same; reference numbers are the same. In short, I see nothing new about the Sub line this year and think speculation to the contrary just serves to stoke the rumor mill and muddy the waters.

Back to the point of the thread, it would seem resources were not heavily dedicated to a complete revamp of all the SS sports models, so it is reasonable to presume there must be some other reason for the supply shortage. Given that, it's anyone's guess as to whether supply will increase once we're through Basel and into a new release season. Either that, or we really are expected to believe Oystersteel is some newfangled steel alloy. Anybody who does believe that would be well advised to contact me about a bridge I have for sale in Brooklyn.

[stainlesssteve]

Originally Posted by peacocknation

I really don’t think this shortage is an issue of Rolex not wanting to meet the demand. Rolex is a luxury brand and luxury brands don’t want to follow the same supply/demand curves a “Normal” product will. It’s a pretty cool business model that companies like Rolex, Chanel, Cartier, etc. follow to drive insane demand and build their brand - which enables them to make money for years and years...and years.

If you go back to economics class and the supply/demand curve, the intersection of those two lines is the price at which the product sells. If Rolex increased production to meet demand, they would not be able to continue commanding such a high price for their product and would be unable to raise prices in the future (ignore inflation exists, they still would want to raise their price). That’s not to say that increasing production would be easy, but if they wanted to do it they could and they would want to do it because it would make them more money....but they don’t increase production....why?

Because Rolex, like all luxury brands, are in the business of influencing demand. Make a desirable Rolex hard to get and people are still going to want one. It drives the brand’s value up and enables price increases beyond the increase for inflation. And I wouldn’t be surprised if they sell to the AD/Gray dealers at a higher price on certain models that have super high demand.

They’re controlling supply to influence demand and maintain their position as the world’s most recognizeable luxury watch brand. It provides strength across their entire watch portfolio and ensures the company’s long term success.

If exclusivity is the goal, then why have dealers in practically every mall in America?