Gray Market Prices

[justdate]

Note: I am not one of those heroes who would go around buying a watch with the intention of flipping as I feel too awkward as I see my AD often, however I truly have no issue with those who do, and I would feel extremely lucky to be given a watch at below market value and I would repay the favour by buying a watch at an RRP above market value (e.g a PM) from the AD in future.

[justdate]

Originally Posted by Russell996

I can only assume this is a joke?

Certainly somewhat tongue in cheek, but the underlying economics is true. If you don’t agree show me how it is wrong. Or alternatively advise if you believe in the communist market system, as that also would suffice as an explanation.

[GB-man]

The ironic bit is that 4 years ago when I would buy a watch and wear it for 6 months to a year before flipping it to buy another I was an ADs best friend.

The only thing that’s changed is that instead of losing 20-50% I now stand to gain 20-50%. Also, if I were to offer the watch back to the AD they would love me.

So really it’s all about the AD not wanting me as a customer to realize any economic benefit that they wish to capture themselves.

[tom2517]

Originally Posted by Russell996

Rolex AD's also care very much about flippers on hard to get pieces - can't comment whether it is the same in the States but in the UK it is a fact.

Just for the record I am defining a flipper as someone who buys a piece with no intention of wearing it and immediately on receipt advertises it for sale and unworn. There are many reasons for a quick and legitimate sale that wouldn't qualify as being a flip.

Sometimes I am not sure how strictly they (Rolex and Patek) are enforcing it in UK though. For instance in UK 5131s usually don’t sell to non-locals, and that Rhône keeps the paper for two years. But neither applied to my 5131P.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by GB-man

The ironic bit is that 4 years ago when I would buy a watch and wear it for 6 months to a year before flipping it to buy another I was an ADs best friend.

The only thing that’s changed is that instead of losing 20-50% I now stand to gain 20-50%. Also, if I were to offer the watch back to the AD they would love me.

So incredible well put.

Bravo.

[Sam Philip]

Originally Posted by tom2517

Sometimes I am not sure how strictly they (Rolex and Patek) are enforcing it in UK though. For instance in UK 5131s usually don’t sell to non-locals, and that Rhône keeps the paper for two years. But neither applied to my 5131P.

ADs such as WOS and Boodles have very well established large overseas clientele and Rhone will happily allocate a 5131 to any of their well established overseas clients.

[racer24]

I am in the camp of it's your money, you brought it then do whatever you want with it. If someone is able to obtain all the hot references from AD and flip them, make a living out of it, by all means

[1688]

Originally Posted by racer24

I am in the camp of it's your money, you brought it then do whatever you want with it. If someone is able to obtain all the hot references from AD and flip them, make a living out of it, by all means

I guess in your scenario it is the AD's fault that they are able to provide the flipper the income source...
I think the watch manufacturers should start instituting a blockchain type technology which tracks when and where the watches are being sold, similar technologies are used to track food items in case of ill-borne diseases so distributors can locate the source and recall items. I'm not saying watches need to be recalled but at least the manufacturers will know which AD is selling to flippers and which ones are being honest

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by tom2517

Sometimes I am not sure how strictly they (Rolex and Patek) are enforcing it in UK though. For instance in UK 5131s usually don’t sell to non-locals, and that Rhône keeps the paper for two years. But neither applied to my 5131P.

Well i’m sure there are exceptions to any rule - was it from the salon or an AD? (Salon seems to operate under different rules)

[ragsk]

Well its a joke right now. I went into PP in Bond street today. Even the ladies Nautilus gold models have a 2.5 year waitlist. The 5711 steel stands at 8 years lol. They were were very professional but yikes!

Only way to stop flippers is to make the warranty non transferable or have a registration process for the transfer involving proof of purchase, condition etc. Anyone who has sold a new watch then gets blacklisted for life from all PP sales globally.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by ragsk

Well its a joke right now. I went into PP in Bond street today. Even the ladies Nautilus gold models have a 2.5 year waitlist. The 5711 steel stands at 8 years lol. They were were very professional but yikes!

Only way to stop flippers is to make the warranty non transferable or have a registration process for the transfer involving proof of purchase, condition etc. Anyone who has sold a new watch then gets blacklisted for life from all PP sales globally.

Or increase production. Get more into the market. Everyone wins.

[racer24]

Originally Posted by ragsk

Well its a joke right now. I went into PP in Bond street today. Even the ladies Nautilus gold models have a 2.5 year waitlist. The 5711 steel stands at 8 years lol. They were were very professional but yikes!

Only way to stop flippers is to make the warranty non transferable or have a registration process for the transfer involving proof of purchase, condition etc. Anyone who has sold a new watch then gets blacklisted for life from all PP sales globally.

PP warranty is already non transferable.

[ragsk]

Originally Posted by racer24

PP warranty is already non transferable.

It is transferable as far as I am aware. You just need the certificate.

PP should make the new owner reregister it again for the warranty to still hold.

[martinr]

You know what’s funny. Patek doesn’t let AD give you a sealed watch any longer but if you send it in for warranty work you get it back sealed.

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by martinr

You know what’s funny. Patek doesn’t let AD give you a sealed watch any longer but if you send it in for warranty work you get it back sealed.

But with a sticker on the back saying it’s been serviced.

[martinr]

Originally Posted by Russell996

But with a sticker on the back saying it’s been serviced.

That is correct. I know from experience. Three watches. 5980 sent in for warranty due to defect after three months. Search my past posts for explanation. 5905 sent in after six months because chrono pusher was falling off and had to go to Geneva because it was a new reference at the time. Came back with tool marks on the case back and I sent it to LA Watchworks and paid for the fix myself. And a 5170 which I was so annoyed about I sold it rather than send in. So that one I didn’t get back sealed with a sticker on the back. Maybe whoever bought it did if the warranty was honored even though their name wasn’t on the certificate. A grey area depending on who you talk to.

[tom2517]

Originally Posted by Russell996

Well i’m sure there are exceptions to any rule - was it from the salon or an AD? (Salon seems to operate under different rules)

Its from an AD, the paper mailed by Rhone.

[Passionata]

Originally Posted by ragsk

Well its a joke right now. I went into PP in Bond street today. Even the ladies Nautilus gold models have a 2.5 year waitlist. The 5711 steel stands at 8 years lol. They were were very professional but yikes!

Only way to stop flippers is to make the warranty non transferable or have a registration process for the transfer involving proof of purchase, condition etc. Anyone who has sold a new watch then gets blacklisted for life from all PP sales globally.

106pcs in SS on C24 bnib.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Passionata

106pcs in SS on C24 bnib.

Lmao.

Maybe the price will come down. But then all the grays will get burnt and take a big loss.

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by racer24

I am in the camp of it's your money, you brought it then do whatever you want with it. If someone is able to obtain all the hot references from AD and flip them, make a living out of it, by all means

Agreed. Nobody cares when you lose 50 percent or more on your purchase, which happens all too often in the new watch world.

[AAP8]

Originally Posted by superdog

Lmao.

Maybe the price will come down. But then all the grays will get burnt and take a big loss.

IMO thats whats pushing prices higher - since the grey's are likely buying at higher and higher prices.

[1688]

https://www.watchpricetrend.com/Pate..._month-14.html

5711/1A prices trending higher to $60k usd

[superdog]

^^^

Okay.

So back to the OP.

We all don’t think this is a bubble?

[AAP8]

Originally Posted by superdog

^^^

Okay.

So back to the OP.

We all don’t think this is a bubble?

Its a bubble - but its just far from popping - because these are luxury goods and Patek is controlling supply, the bubble can last a lot longer than it should. The only way this pops soon is another global recession - which will take the low end of the market out of the list which could curb demand as likely the top end of the market has their watches already.

[Passionata]

Originally Posted by 1688

https://www.watchpricetrend.com/Pate..._month-14.html



5711/1A prices trending higher to $60k usd

Insteresting why/how the 5167 price dropped from 30=>26,actually noticed this trend on C24 too

[Patek Philippe]

Please tell me where I can get 5167 at $26000 I want one

[RussW]

Originally Posted by 1688

https://www.watchpricetrend.com/Pate..._month-14.html

5711/1A prices trending higher to $60k usd

Interesting site, but I wonder how reliable it is. The current spike in the 5990 price looks way off.

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by RussW

Interesting site, but I wonder how reliable it is. The current spike in the 5990 price looks way off.

Very limited I would suggest.
You can track prices with Chrono24 and WatchBox, I believe Chrono24 is simply based on asking prices but WatchBox feeds it’s sale prices into the figures I understand.

[Chadridv]

Originally Posted by Passionata

Insteresting why/how the 5167 price dropped from 30=>26,actually noticed this trend on C24 too

I was just looking at chrono24, I think there’s only one in the $26k range and it’s a used example with no box or paperwork. Almost all of them are $30k+

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by superdog

^^^

Okay.

So back to the OP.

We all don’t think this is a bubble?

Could be but question is what makes it pop. I spend a lot of time analyzing cycles and bubbles... and actually my specialty in what I do. its not apparent to me what makes this pop. And the FOMO just started... think bout the shape of a S-curve... we just inflected up late last year and now the price and sentiment is accellersting, you can see demand accellerating anecdotally from even the post here.


Bubbles always last longer...the hard thing is tobe greedy and let it play out because everyone has been taught what the value of something is... the value of something is what other people are willing to pay for it (watches stocks houses bonds etc). There is underlying replacement value. But thenprice above it is usually premium for availability/near term demand. For example gold replacement value is 700-900/oz. copper is 1.25, houses are around $90/sft. Etc. the oil and commodity curves are this. Front end is usually higher because of demand and speculators of that demand. The back endnof a curve is s/d and less influenced by speculators


Jim cramer says bulls make money, bears make money but pigs get slaughtered. Ive made all my money in life knowing when to be a pig. The hard thing to to do is be gredy. I always tell people to let things play out. Collectively the market will be right because it has everyones view amalgamated. Sell discipline for me is usually when the trend breaks supported by fundamentals.


Prices will continue to climb. The fomo has just started and to be honest. The group of Rolex SS buyers are ur breeding geound for new demand into Patek nautilus and aquanaut.


Im on a treadmill at the moment so... sorry reaponse is long. Im bored