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24 March 2021, 10:54 PM | #61 | |
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24 March 2021, 11:16 PM | #62 | |
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Additionally, I would argue that the $5 trillion in stimulus money that the U.S. Government has dropped on America combined with the $1 trillion in Bitcoin and the additional trillions of dollars of increased stock market value over the last year has enabled many people who would not have spent $100k on a watch a year ago, to do so, whether they're on Insta or not. |
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24 March 2021, 11:40 PM | #63 |
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i heard it's going for Trillions in Zimbabwe currency. Not sure current pricing in the Turkish Lira. USD and Euro are catching up to those currencies, so it could be $250,000 in Federal Reserve Dollar / Euro currency before the end of 2023.
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25 March 2021, 01:03 AM | #64 |
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25 March 2021, 01:16 AM | #65 | |
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do you think the newly drafted nba or nfl player at all knows or cares about a grand complications patek? no, but he does know what a nautilus is because of rap music and social media culture. so that's what he's getting (and probably sadly iced out). to those people patek is the nautilus |
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25 March 2021, 02:16 AM | #66 |
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I think in the long run, perhaps over the next 3 years, the price will stabilise between 70-80k range. Still a lot of money, but no where near the madness now. It's a 3 hander for god's sake! TS is a smart guy. He knows the 5711 market price is a bubble so to protect the owners of 5711, he had to discontinue it to ensure exclusivity and limit supply. Exit while its at the top!
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25 March 2021, 06:05 AM | #67 | |
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25 March 2021, 06:24 AM | #68 | ||
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Do I think the 5711 is a six figure watch? No. But the market is the market. |
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25 March 2021, 06:25 AM | #69 | |
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My experience has been different. I don't remember any SS Nautilus sitting in AD display cases. When I decided to get a 5711 blue in 2015 it wasn't easy to get on any wait list and involved a projected 2-3 year wait. None were sitting in display cases far and near. Wempe in Munich pretty much told me to move on. Another one of their outlets was a little less discouraging but they have lost their Patek representation since. Now there is always the odd lucky guy who manages to obtain one surprisingly quickly, but that hasn't been the norm for many, many years. |
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25 March 2021, 06:30 AM | #70 | |
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I am excited to see the price of the 5711 going up as I can point it out to some of my judgmental acquittances that watch is a good "investment" but I have zero interest in selling it. |
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25 March 2021, 06:33 AM | #71 | |
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25 March 2021, 07:00 AM | #72 | |
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This is typical bubble market talk. Excess demand... prices will skyrocket... prices cant go down... Being an equities trader I’ve seen this one too many times. It will end badly despite Patek’s best intention to stop the bubble popping by discontinuing the reference. When you have uneducated buyers chasing an asset on speculation alone, it always ends badly. I see all the signs here unfort. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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25 March 2021, 07:07 AM | #73 | |
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It doesn’t matter where the demand is driven from, the market is the market. |
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25 March 2021, 07:08 AM | #74 | |
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This is exactly it. I am afraid that most buyers at these prices are speculators who bought it as an “investment” just based purely on hype and speculation. They are not educated enough about how the watch market works. It’s completely unregulated. Gray dealers can pull the bid at any point and they are not know for their ethics. Again, read or ask about the limited edition RO Offshore market of early 2000s. And no, the FED will not step in to save you in the watch market. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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25 March 2021, 07:09 AM | #75 | |
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25 March 2021, 07:13 AM | #76 | |
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Absolutely it matters where the demand is driven from. There was unlimited demand for tech stocks in 1999 and early 2000. Uneducated buyers chasing everything with a “.com” at the end. We all know how that ended. There are too many similarities here. You can argue its even worse as the watch market is unregulated. If it all pops, there wont be a bid. Gray market is a cartel, they all speak to each other and set the market. Cant stress this enough, learn about the RO Offshore market of early 2000s. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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25 March 2021, 07:17 AM | #77 | |
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I agree, its about the only thing TS could do. It takes a lot of courage to discontinue your best selling reference. A decision of that magnitude is only taken in extraordinary circumstances for a brand/company. I applaud him for getting in front of the situation and acting instead of reacting. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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25 March 2021, 08:25 AM | #78 | |
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25 March 2021, 08:30 AM | #79 | |
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25 March 2021, 08:56 AM | #80 |
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If you could buy LEAPS puts on the 5711 I’d load the boat.
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25 March 2021, 08:57 AM | #81 | |
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Extract from recent Hodinkee article on 5711 future (Ben Clymer comment reflecting on year 2016) Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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25 March 2021, 09:28 AM | #82 |
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Well... He said he knows several people who bought them new, from ADs at a discount. Fair enough. But by no means did he say they bought those in 2016. I am sorry, but some of you guys seem to be reading sth into it that just isn't there. Moreover, the watch people Ben Clymer knows are probably not exactly representative for the typical guy trying to buy a 5711.
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25 March 2021, 10:40 AM | #83 |
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My first Nautilus was sitting in the display case and I did get a small discount, but that was late 2015 so I've solved nothing with my anecdotal story.
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25 March 2021, 10:53 AM | #84 | |
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I agree with you on the financial prudence message and watches are not meant as an investment. That said, what do you reckon is a sensible price for a discontinued blue 5711? I checked the pricing of the obvious competitors like the 15202 and Odysseus and they are priced at 70k and 85k respectively. The 15202 reference has been around since 2000 and the Odysseus was only released in 2020; both are not discontinued. Historically the blue 5711 has always traded higher than the 15202, and the Odysseus does not have a history/legacy like the Nautilus. The US dealers are currently pricing the discontinued blue 5711 at 100k, which I felt is not far off from the current prices of 15202, Odysseus and the discontinued white 5711. I personally think the blue is priced fairly and given its popularity, will rise further in the future. Or do you meant the SS sport watch market as a whole is inflated? I do see that in Rolex but not for the likes of Omega, et al., except for certain models. I was expecting to see a correction for the SS watch market in early 2020 due to the pandemic but these watch prices seem to head in the opposite direction today. |
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25 March 2021, 10:56 AM | #85 |
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White 5711? I have seen a few white 5711 in the display case but never the blue. I still remember that incredulous facial expression on my AD when I told him I want a blue 5711 in 2015
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25 March 2021, 10:57 AM | #86 | |
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Same here. 5711 white paid 23000 out the door. 5167 paid 18k the year prior. I actually sold my 5711 in 2016-7 for a loss because I was anticipating getting the new one with a proper bracelet for the 40th anniversary. I felt the watch was due for all new the way the 5 digit Rolex were around 2005 lol
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25 March 2021, 11:00 AM | #87 |
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I like Hodinkee a lot but it gets to me when the founder reference the Nautilus as "5711A". There is no such reference. I would be fine if he calls it the 5711 or just Nautilus.
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25 March 2021, 11:31 AM | #88 |
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25 March 2021, 11:36 AM | #89 |
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25 March 2021, 01:48 PM | #90 |
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While you’re at it don’t forget to short Tesla. We all know how well that’s worked out for everyone.
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