5711 Price will avg 150k-200k and stay there.

[illiguy]

Originally Posted by NYG1121

Lets not over complicate things. Its always about supply/demand. One part of that equation is done. The second part is a moving target and currently being purely driven by speculation as above poster stated. That may or may not continue but 5711 will always have a place in history and command a premium. No one knows by how much

100% agree. This might be the most cogent response in this thread.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by shkure

How many of those non-serious watch buyers are buying a Nautilus to keep and wear like you describe? I would be shocked if its more than 1 in 10. The demographic you describe that likes to look cool and hip in Insta dont have 110k to drop on a steel Nautilus. These are being bought for speculation mostly, and they will get dumped just as quick, once those non-serious buyers realise that they actually overpaid for them.

The most similar event in the past is the Royal Oak Ofshore bubble of the early 2000s. People have short memory nowadays, but back then, those Ofshores were going for 3x retail and buyers were gobbling them up thinking they will never go down. That bubble deflated, and it deflated quick. The same gray dealers that were selling these at 3x retail, were all of the sudden bidding 20% below retail a few short months later. The Ofshore market has not recovered since, and its been over 10 years.

The 5711 has been a series production watch for a while, and they are actually quite a few out there. Patek know the risk, and is getting ahead of it but discontinuing the reference all together.



Strongly disagree. You must have a very short memory to think that the Nautilus is keeping Patek relevant. Let me remind you that the same nautilus was sitting in AD's cases just a short 5 years ago and was being routinely discounted 20%. Do not confuse a short term trend with Pateks 200+ years relevance as the pinnacle of the luxury watch business.

Five years ago, which would be 2016, the 5711a, even the white dial, was not being discounted 20% in any AD in New York City, nor, to my recollection, were they sitting in AD's cases. Perhaps you're thinking of the Aquanaut, ref 5167/1a, the bracelet version, which was rather widely available five years ago and was, indeed, being offered at a discount.
Additionally, I would argue that the $5 trillion in stimulus money that the U.S. Government has dropped on America combined with the $1 trillion in Bitcoin and the additional trillions of dollars of increased stock market value over the last year has enabled many people who would not have spent $100k on a watch a year ago, to do so, whether they're on Insta or not.

[enjoythemusic]

i heard it's going for Trillions in Zimbabwe currency. Not sure current pricing in the Turkish Lira. USD and Euro are catching up to those currencies, so it could be $250,000 in Federal Reserve Dollar / Euro currency before the end of 2023.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

i heard it's going for Trillions in Zimbabwe currency. Not sure current pricing in the Turkish Lira. USD and Euro are catching up to those currencies, so it could be $250,000 in Federal Reserve Dollar / Euro currency before the end of 2023.

Okay.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by shkure

How many of those non-serious watch buyers are buying a Nautilus to keep and wear like you describe? I would be shocked if its more than 1 in 10. The demographic you describe that likes to look cool and hip in Insta dont have 110k to drop on a steel Nautilus. These are being bought for speculation mostly, and they will get dumped just as quick, once those non-serious buyers realise that they actually overpaid for them.

The most similar event in the past is the Royal Oak Ofshore bubble of the early 2000s. People have short memory nowadays, but back then, those Ofshores were going for 3x retail and buyers were gobbling them up thinking they will never go down. That bubble deflated, and it deflated quick. The same gray dealers that were selling these at 3x retail, were all of the sudden bidding 20% below retail a few short months later. The Ofshore market has not recovered since, and its been over 10 years.

The 5711 has been a series production watch for a while, and they are actually quite a few out there. Patek know the risk, and is getting ahead of it but discontinuing the reference all together.



Strongly disagree. You must have a very short memory to think that the Nautilus is keeping Patek relevant. Let me remind you that the same nautilus was sitting in AD's cases just a short 5 years ago and was being routinely discounted 20%. Do not confuse a short term trend with Pateks 200+ years relevance as the pinnacle of the luxury watch business.

the nautilus isn't keeping patek relevant but it put the brand on the radar for a lot of people who don't care for what patek actually stood for in the past. it was never gonna be on the radar of the younger new money generations. they're not gonna be buying dress watches or grand complications on leather straps, just like they aren't buying them now either even though they are so exposed to patek. those lines are a very niche market whereas every young millionaire now wants to get a nautilus

do you think the newly drafted nba or nfl player at all knows or cares about a grand complications patek? no, but he does know what a nautilus is because of rap music and social media culture. so that's what he's getting (and probably sadly iced out). to those people patek is the nautilus

[HMHM]

I think in the long run, perhaps over the next 3 years, the price will stabilise between 70-80k range. Still a lot of money, but no where near the madness now. It's a 3 hander for god's sake! TS is a smart guy. He knows the 5711 market price is a bubble so to protect the owners of 5711, he had to discontinue it to ensure exclusivity and limit supply. Exit while its at the top!

[ts3]

Originally Posted by HMHM

I think in the long run, perhaps over the next 3 years, the price will stabilise between 70-80k range. Still a lot of money, but no where near the madness now. It's a 3 hander for god's sake! TS is a smart guy. He knows the 5711 market price is a bubble so to protect the owners of 5711, he had to discontinue it to ensure exclusivity and limit supply. Exit while its at the top!

No doubt it may be a good time to exit if you bought it for investment purposes. No reason to exit though if you got it because you like it and enjoy wearing it.

[illiguy]

Originally Posted by HMHM

I think in the long run, perhaps over the next 3 years, the price will stabilise between 70-80k range. Still a lot of money, but no where near the madness now. It's a 3 hander for god's sake! TS is a smart guy. He knows the 5711 market price is a bubble so to protect the owners of 5711, he had to discontinue it to ensure exclusivity and limit supply. Exit while its at the top!

Originally Posted by ts3

No doubt it may be a good time to exit if you bought it for investment purposes. No reason to exit though if you got it because you like it and enjoy wearing it.

Will bet you lunch that we’ll be at the $150k-200k instead of the $70-80k I think with inflation and continued excess demand that will only be further fueled by inability to acquire / discontinuation, you have escape velocity on prices.

Do I think the 5711 is a six figure watch? No. But the market is the market.

[ts3]

Originally Posted by shkure

Strongly disagree. You must have a very short memory to think that the Nautilus is keeping Patek relevant. Let me remind you that the same nautilus was sitting in AD's cases just a short 5 years ago and was being routinely discounted 20%. Do not confuse a short term trend with Pateks 200+ years relevance as the pinnacle of the luxury watch business.

Can you share which Nautilus were sitting in AD's cases in 2016 and where you routinely saw 20% discounts at the time? You said earlier that you were not fortunate enough to ever get a 5711 at retail, and yet it was supposedly straightforward just 5 years ago and at a 20% discount no less?

My experience has been different. I don't remember any SS Nautilus sitting in AD display cases. When I decided to get a 5711 blue in 2015 it wasn't easy to get on any wait list and involved a projected 2-3 year wait. None were sitting in display cases far and near. Wempe in Munich pretty much told me to move on. Another one of their outlets was a little less discouraging but they have lost their Patek representation since.

Now there is always the odd lucky guy who manages to obtain one surprisingly quickly, but that hasn't been the norm for many, many years.

[llngoc]

Originally Posted by illiguy

Will bet you lunch that we’ll be at the $150k-200k instead of the $70-80k I think with inflation and continued excess demand that will only be further fueled by inability to acquire / discontinuation, you have escape velocity on prices.

Do I think the 5711 is a six figure watch? No. But the market is the market.

I have heard conspiracy theory on how grey dealers are colluding to drive the price up. It will be really interesting to find out how many 5711 are bought at this price level by real users and not dealer-dealer trade or "investors".

I am excited to see the price of the 5711 going up as I can point it out to some of my judgmental acquittances that watch is a good "investment" but I have zero interest in selling it.

[HMHM]

Originally Posted by illiguy

Will bet you lunch that we’ll be at the $150k-200k instead of the $70-80k I think with inflation and continued excess demand that will only be further fueled by inability to acquire / discontinuation, you have escape velocity on prices.

Do I think the 5711 is a six figure watch? No. But the market is the market.

I think a lot depends on the replacement of the 5711 though... if the replacement is in PM (excluding the final farewell version of the 5711), then the price of the 5711 will go up to unprecedented heights. But if the replacement is in SS, then I don’t think it will command that high a price.

[shkure]

Originally Posted by illiguy

Will bet you lunch that we’ll be at the $150k-200k instead of the $70-80k I think with inflation and continued excess demand that will only be further fueled by inability to acquire / discontinuation, you have escape velocity on prices.

Do I think the 5711 is a six figure watch? No. But the market is the market.

This is typical bubble market talk. Excess demand... prices will skyrocket... prices cant go down...

Being an equities trader I’ve seen this one too many times. It will end badly despite Patek’s best intention to stop the bubble popping by discontinuing the reference. When you have uneducated buyers chasing an asset on speculation alone, it always ends badly. I see all the signs here unfort.


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[illiguy]

Originally Posted by shkure

This is typical bubble market talk. Excess demand... prices will skyrocket... prices cant go down...

Being an equities trader I’ve seen this one too many times. It will end badly despite Patek’s best intention to stop the bubble popping by discontinuing the reference. When you have uneducated buyers chasing an asset on speculation alone, it always ends badly. I see all the signs here unfort.


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Time will tell. TS discontinuing the 5711 simply created a “floor” for its value. His act was a protective measure for existing owners. There’s simply an excess demand relative to supply. Surely, as an equities trader, you understand what that means for price, right?

It doesn’t matter where the demand is driven from, the market is the market.

[shkure]

Originally Posted by ts3

No doubt it may be a good time to exit if you bought it for investment purposes. No reason to exit though if you got it because you like it and enjoy wearing it.

This is exactly it. I am afraid that most buyers at these prices are speculators who bought it as an “investment” just based purely on hype and speculation. They are not educated enough about how the watch market works. It’s completely unregulated. Gray dealers can pull the bid at any point and they are not know for their ethics. Again, read or ask about the limited edition RO Offshore market of early 2000s.

And no, the FED will not step in to save you in the watch market.


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[HMHM]

Originally Posted by shkure

This is typical bubble market talk. Excess demand... prices will skyrocket... prices cant go down...

Being an equities trader I’ve seen this one too many times. It will end badly despite Patek’s best intention to stop the bubble popping by discontinuing the reference. When you have uneducated buyers chasing an asset on speculation alone, it always ends badly. I see all the signs here unfort.


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I agree it’s a bubble, but I think TS is just about doing all he can to minimise the risk of the bubble bursting. The rest is out of his control to be fair. The one thing Patek needs to avoid is the fate of Hublot/Franck Muller of being a super hype up brand and crash and burn a few years later. In the 2000s it was all FM and in the early 2010s it was all Hublot. Now look at the prices of those watches.

[shkure]

Originally Posted by illiguy

Time will tell. TS discontinuing the 5711 simply created a “floor” for its value. His act was a protective measure for existing owners. There’s simply an excess demand relative to supply. Surely, as an equities trader, you understand what that means for price, right?

It doesn’t matter where the demand is driven from, the market is the market.

Absolutely it matters where the demand is driven from. There was unlimited demand for tech stocks in 1999 and early 2000. Uneducated buyers chasing everything with a “.com” at the end. We all know how that ended.

There are too many similarities here. You can argue its even worse as the watch market is unregulated. If it all pops, there wont be a bid. Gray market is a cartel, they all speak to each other and set the market. Cant stress this enough, learn about the RO Offshore market of early 2000s.


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[shkure]

Originally Posted by HMHM

I agree it’s a bubble, but I think TS is just about doing all he can to minimise the risk of the bubble bursting. The rest is out of his control to be fair. The one thing Patek needs to avoid is the fate of Hublot/Franck Muller of being a super hype up brand and crash and burn a few years later. In the 2000s it was all FM and in the early 2010s it was all Hublot. Now look at the prices of those watches.

I agree, its about the only thing TS could do. It takes a lot of courage to discontinue your best selling reference. A decision of that magnitude is only taken in extraordinary circumstances for a brand/company. I applaud him for getting in front of the situation and acting instead of reacting.


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[cascavel]

Originally Posted by ts3

Can you share which Nautilus were sitting in AD's cases in 2016 and where you routinely saw 20% discounts at the time? You said earlier that you were not fortunate enough to ever get a 5711 at retail, and yet it was supposedly straightforward just 5 years ago and at a 20% discount no less?

My experience has been different. I don't remember any SS Nautilus sitting in AD display cases. When I decided to get a 5711 blue in 2015 it wasn't easy to get on any wait list and involved a projected 2-3 year wait. None were sitting in display cases far and near. Wempe in Munich pretty much told me to move on. Another one of their outlets was a little less discouraging but they have lost their Patek representation since.

Now there is always the odd lucky guy who manages to obtain one surprisingly quickly, but that hasn't been the norm for many, many years.

I guess your memory is as faulty as mine because that's exactly how I remember it. Even after I bought a 5167a from the Wempe on 5th Ave. they wouldn't add me to their waiting list for a 5711 with blue dial, and that was in 2014. About a year later they did come up with a white dial 5711 but, sadly, no discount.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by shkure

This is exactly it. I am afraid that most buyers at these prices are speculators who bought it as an “investment” just based purely on hype and speculation. They are not educated enough about how the watch market works. It’s completely unregulated. Gray dealers can pull the bid at any point and they are not know for their ethics. Again, read or ask about the limited edition RO Offshore market of early 2000s.

And no, the FED will not step in to save you in the watch market.


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It's a good thing that there is no facility for shorting this market because a lot of people would have been hurt when it blew through $50K, 60K, 70K, 80K, 90K and now 100K.

[GB-man]

If you could buy LEAPS puts on the 5711 I’d load the boat.

[Uros]

Originally Posted by cascavel

I guess your memory is as faulty as mine because that's exactly how I remember it. Even after I bought a 5167a from the Wempe on 5th Ave. they wouldn't add me to their waiting list for a 5711 with blue dial, and that was in 2014. About a year later they did come up with a white dial 5711 but, sadly, no discount.

Extract from recent Hodinkee article on 5711 future (Ben Clymer comment reflecting on year 2016)




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[ts3]

Originally Posted by Uros

Extract from recent Hodinkee article on 5711 future (Ben Clymer comment reflecting on year 2016)
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Well... He said he knows several people who bought them new, from ADs at a discount. Fair enough. But by no means did he say they bought those in 2016. I am sorry, but some of you guys seem to be reading sth into it that just isn't there. Moreover, the watch people Ben Clymer knows are probably not exactly representative for the typical guy trying to buy a 5711.

[CamSLC]

My first Nautilus was sitting in the display case and I did get a small discount, but that was late 2015 so I've solved nothing with my anecdotal story.

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by Russell996

I personally think your numbers are low, but even if they were double, the numbers are still small given the current demand. I believe the ongoing issue for the market price of the 5711/2/26 etc will be around the demographic paying or thinking of paying these highly inflated prices, I simply don't believe the majority of pieces selling at these exorbitant prices (if they are selling) are being bought to wear, they are being bought as investments and as such will instantly be sold once the lack of potential growth becomes obvious. Watches are not investments, contrary to most messages in this thread I would urge anyone who bought their 5711 as a store of money at an inflated price and doesn't wear it to sell now and avoid the obvious market correction that will come. The Nautilus is King, agreed, but it is currently not priced sensibly on the secondary market and at some point this will change.

The watch market is probably going through the biggest change in it's history with the ability to buy and sell at a whim, much the same as with cars, virtually every other person is a watch dealer and some of the larger players are doing a great job of bringing more people into this amazing hobby of ours. There is now a ground swell of interest in watches and the amazing products that are available from many manufacturers, personally I see a great future for inventive independents and main stream players. The more buyers are educated in the watch market the more their interests and buying choices will diversify, that is all to the good but will hit the hyped and overinflated models, which to be honest is good for everyone, Patek included.

I live on a small island with 10 ADs near me and all but 1 store told me they receive only 1 to 2 blue 5711 each year. That last store receives 2 to 3. That's how I derive the "1.5" in my back-of-envelope calculation. Is this number consistent with what your/other AD(s) told you?

I agree with you on the financial prudence message and watches are not meant as an investment. That said, what do you reckon is a sensible price for a discontinued blue 5711?

I checked the pricing of the obvious competitors like the 15202 and Odysseus and they are priced at 70k and 85k respectively. The 15202 reference has been around since 2000 and the Odysseus was only released in 2020; both are not discontinued. Historically the blue 5711 has always traded higher than the 15202, and the Odysseus does not have a history/legacy like the Nautilus. The US dealers are currently pricing the discontinued blue 5711 at 100k, which I felt is not far off from the current prices of 15202, Odysseus and the discontinued white 5711. I personally think the blue is priced fairly and given its popularity, will rise further in the future.

Or do you meant the SS sport watch market as a whole is inflated? I do see that in Rolex but not for the likes of Omega, et al., except for certain models. I was expecting to see a correction for the SS watch market in early 2020 due to the pandemic but these watch prices seem to head in the opposite direction today.

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by CamSLC

My first Nautilus was sitting in the display case and I did get a small discount, but that was late 2015 so I've solved nothing with my anecdotal story.

White 5711? I have seen a few white 5711 in the display case but never the blue. I still remember that incredulous facial expression on my AD when I told him I want a blue 5711 in 2015

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by CamSLC

My first Nautilus was sitting in the display case and I did get a small discount, but that was late 2015 so I've solved nothing with my anecdotal story.

Same here. 5711 white paid 23000 out the door.

5167 paid 18k the year prior.

I actually sold my 5711 in 2016-7 for a loss because I was anticipating getting the new one with a proper bracelet for the 40th anniversary. I felt the watch was due for all new the way the 5 digit Rolex were around 2005 lol

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by Uros

Extract from recent Hodinkee article on 5711 future (Ben Clymer comment reflecting on year 2016)

I like Hodinkee a lot but it gets to me when the founder reference the Nautilus as "5711A". There is no such reference. I would be fine if he calls it the 5711 or just Nautilus.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by GB-man

If you could buy LEAPS puts on the 5711 I’d load the boat.

imagine lol

[Pw92676]

Originally Posted by alika

150-200K for a SS watch?
No thanks.

My thoughts exactly.

[mwireless]

Originally Posted by GB-man

If you could buy LEAPS puts on the 5711 I’d load the boat.

While you’re at it don’t forget to short Tesla. We all know how well that’s worked out for everyone.