Interesting Hodinkee interview with Stern

[PPcollector]

You mean something like this Salmon dial AP?

[scurfa]

I was expecting another Nautilus not long after the green one and was told quite sternly on this forum to stop spreading false rumours! Imagine rumours and speculation on the Rolex forum!

[de66]

Originally Posted by Russell996

They have always done this, it is not new. A number of pieces each year go to new clients.



I'm afraid I don't understand what you are suggesting, Patek strive to support valued clients and get them a Nautilus after a reasonable wait and there is a policy to sell a certain number of these pieces annually to new clients.
What is your strategy suggestion?

I am not aware of this policy to give a number of such pieces to new clients. Does not mean that it does not exist, but I have never heard of it.

My suggestion would be: stop advertising the nautilus and aquanaut, remove them from the catalog (like with the 1st 5711P) and issue a statement or directive to dealers what it takes for a client to qualify for one. "A reasonable wait" is a very arbitrary concept...

Fact of the matter is that, in terms of pricing, the 5711 and the 5167 were positioned at the lower end of the Patek price range which is where most new Patek clients tend to start.

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by de66

I am not aware of this policy to give a number of such pieces to new clients. Does not mean that it does not exist, but I have never heard of it.

My suggestion would be: stop advertising the nautilus and aquanaut, remove them from the catalog (like with the 1st 5711P) and issue a statement or directive to dealers what it takes for a client to qualify for one. "A reasonable wait" is a very arbitrary concept...

Fact of the matter is that, in terms of pricing, the 5711 and the 5167 were positioned at the lower end of the Patek price range which is where most new Patek clients tend to start.

So your solution to control excessive demand and all the problems that presents is for them to pretend they no longer make the pieces.

The 1st 5711P was produced over a number of years with probably less than 100 produced and was reserved for top clients, the number of Aquanauts and Nautilus produced per year is probably more than 1/3 of Patek's production and is the bread and butter of AD's but you want them somehow hidden. Sounds like a plan.

[Mini2]

Originally Posted by PPcollector

You mean something like this Salmon dial AP?

Images I've seen look like this
Its the farewell to the olive green

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by Mini2

Images I've seen look like this
Its the farewell to the olive green

You have seen images?

[Mini2]

Originally Posted by Russell996

You have seen images?

Ive said too much already....

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by Mini2

Ive said too much already....

Don't worry, I've looked back at your previous posts - no further questions.

[Mini2]

Originally Posted by Russell996

Don't worry, I've looked back at your previous posts - no further questions.

Sorry Russell
I'm just being silly
Mad thing about these forums and the internet - anybody can read into anything i.e what Mr stern has said in his interview.
As we can all agree, The only time we know something new is out is when we see it on the website in majority of cases.
PS You have some incredible pieces

[de66]

Originally Posted by Russell996

So your solution to control excessive demand and all the problems that presents is for them to pretend they no longer make the pieces.

The 1st 5711P was produced over a number of years with probably less than 100 produced and was reserved for top clients, the number of Aquanauts and Nautilus produced per year is probably more than 1/3 of Patek's production and is the bread and butter of AD's but you want them somehow hidden. Sounds like a plan.

Russel, I know you. You probably didnt mean it this way but lets not make it appear as if I made a suggestion that they should pretend as if they no longer make the pieces. For the record I said no such thing.

It is not my place nor my duty to think of a solution to problems that Mr. Stern says he is trying to deal with. I simply communicated my lack of understanding with the current state of affairs and the supposed solution presented.
Like with the 5711P there is no point in offering pieces in a catalog if they are not available to the general public. Making announcements about the special final 5711 in interviews is unnecessary if this watch is only made and given to reward your best customers. The "somehow" has already been demonstrated by Patek with the 5711P where, for a year, even many ADs did not know the existence of this watch. They dont need to be hidden, but they dont need to be catalog/showcase presented either. Just my 2c

What makes you think the aquanauts and nautilus are the bread and butter of ADs? The ADs I know are sick of these models because they take up an unjustified large share of their daily work answering phone calls from cold callers asking for aquanaut or nautilus. Sales staff at the Salon explained how they frequently get walk ins who ask for these watches without any prior purchase history and know next to nothing about the brand history. Obviously these are politely declined, but still take up a lot of time . Most of their sales are apparently still Calatravas.

Mr. Stern has said in numerous interviews that it is his target not to allocate more than one third of production to steel sports watches which also includes the top seller Twenty4. According to some of the sales staff at the Geneva salon, if he gets anywhere close to that then it could mean around 10'000 ladies, and 10'000 mens of both aquanaut (5167, 5164, 5968) and Nautilus (5711,5712,5726,5990). Nobody claims to know the exact numbers

D

[de66]

Originally Posted by AK797

I think he has gone full circle, from a few years ago innocently talking about production and discontinuing models and causing the market to react wildly, to now deliberately trying to stir up the hype... he sort of reminds me of the girl singer, like Avril Lavigne/Billie Eilish, who was the cool girl but then as time goes by they start taking off their clothes and sexing it up.

Good anal-ogy

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by de66

Russel, I know you. You probably didnt mean it this way but lets not make it appear as if I made a suggestion that they should pretend as if they no longer make the pieces. For the record I said no such thing.

It is not my place nor my duty to think of a solution to problems that Mr. Stern says he is trying to deal with. I simply communicated my lack of understanding with the current state of affairs and the supposed solution presented.
Like with the 5711P there is no point in offering pieces in a catalog if they are not available to the general public. Making announcements about the special final 5711 in interviews is unnecessary if this watch is only made and given to reward your best customers. The "somehow" has already been demonstrated by Patek with the 5711P where for a year many ADs did not know the existence of this watch. They dont need to be hidden, but they dont need to be catalog/showcase presented either. Just my 2c

What makes you think the aquanauts and nautilus are the bread and butter of ADs? The ADs I know are sick of these models because they take up an unjustified large share of their daily work answering phone calls from cold callers asking for aquanaut or nautilus. Sales staff at the Salon explained how they frequently get walk ins who ask for these watches without any prior purchase history and know next to nothing about the brand history. Obviously these are politely declined, but still take up a lot of time . Most of their sales are apparently still Calatravas.

Mr. Stern has said in numerous interviews that it is his target not to allocate more than one third of production to steel sports watches which also includes the top seller Twenty4. According to some of the sales staff at the Geneva salon, if he gets anywhere close to that then it could mean around 10'000 ladies, and 10'000 mens of both aquanaut (5167, 5164, 5968) and Nautilus (5711,5712,5726,5990). Nobody claims to know the exact numbers

D

As a customer/potential customer I’m not sure how else I would take ‘stop advertising the nautilus and aquanaut, remove them from the catalog’.

5711P was extremely limited special piece and is very different from the latest green models - every AD is getting green pieces and they are in charge of allocating to their clients, some will go to regular clients and some possibly to new clients (there is a post on this forum).

Nautilus and Aquanauts are the AD’s bread and butter both by volume and by driving general interest in the brand (28% of Patek range is Nautilus or aquanauts and the Nautilus is by far the biggest single model range), Calatrava’s are nothing like the biggest sellers, there has been a very small range in recent years - now being addressed I’m pleased to say.

I take it from your reference to the percentage of SS watches that you are not including PM Aquanaut or Nautilus pieces in your unadvertised grouping?

All makes perfect sense now.

[David001]

Originally Posted by Russell996

Nautilus and Aquanauts are the AD’s bread and butter both by volume...

Are they?

I honestly don't know, it's not the sort of conversation I've ever had with anyone that actually knows the facts, but I do recall a conversation with an AD ages ago who said that he sells a couple of Calatravas for every one Nautilus.

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by David001

Are they?

I honestly don't know, it's not the sort of conversation I've ever had with anyone that actually knows the facts, but I do recall a conversation with an AD ages ago who said that he sells a couple of Calatravas for every one Nautilus.

There are 15 Calatrava's in the range and 40 Nautilus/Aquanauts. If the popular sports models that out number the Calatrava models in the collection by 2.5+ to 1 don't sell in greater numbers there is something seriously wrong.
Most stores have a Calatrava or three in the window, sports models are in and out without hitting the window - both ladies and gents.

A quick search on Chrono24 reveals 1900 Patek for sale made since 2010, of these 1900 pieces over 800 (42%+) are Nautilus or Aquanaut - clearly totally unscientific and open to dealer abuse listing pieces that aren't available but still interesting.

[David001]

Originally Posted by Russell996

There are 15 Calatrava's in the range and 40 Nautilus/Aquanauts. If the popular sports models that out number the Calatrava models in the collection by 2.5+ to 1 don't sell in greater numbers there is something seriously wrong.
Most stores have a Calatrava or three in the window, sports models are in and out without hitting the window - both ladies and gents.

A quick search on Chrono24 reveals 1900 Patek for sale made since 2010, of these 1900 pieces over 800 (42%+) are Nautilus or Aquanaut - clearly totally unscientific and open to dealer abuse listing pieces that aren't available but still interesting.

I'm not sure it's as simple as that.

Of the 30 Nautilus models for sale some of them are very rare, but of the 15 Calatravas for sale only one or two are rare.

I rub shoulders with some high net worth people and I'm often in a 'watch-rich' environment, but I hardly ever meet anyone that owns a Nautilus, whereas I often come across people with a Calatrava.
I own two Calatravas, but only one Nautilus.

On this basis, my (also totally unscientific) assumption was that there are a lot more Calatravas out there than Nautilus. I figured that Patek make a lot more Calatravas as their bread & butter watches than they do Nautilus, in the same way that Rolex makes/sells more Datejusts than Daytonas.

[rockdrock]

Originally Posted by de66

I dont really understand the need for Patek to publicly advertise and announce these models. It gives a lot of people the illusion that they have a chance of getting one. I think with these kind of models they should follow the same strategy like they did with the first 5711P and stop advertising them.

This is a really good point. My experience: When the green Nautiluses came out I wanted to see them and see if I could have a chance. I called my guy at the Salon who said yes, drop by. I was so excited - maybe it could happen? I chuckle now knowing how naive that was. So I went. Of course I got a big fat “it is impossible, all allocated, but wait, let me bring all three versions so you can put them on your wrist and cry in front of me.” While I was having this experience, a sales lady at another table was telling a customer over the phone, “they are all allocated but they are so beautiful. These are really special.” Then, another customer comes in, they take my watch tray and bring it to him and also give him a big fat no!

These sales folks job was to create more appetite for the brand. I personally found it annoying as they play with your emotions of come and touch them, they are special, but not for you.

Note: I have high respect for Patek and the sales agents at the Salon who are professionals. I just think there is something off with the marketing.

...and then I remember it is just a watch.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by rockdrock

This is a really good point. My experience: When the green Nautiluses came out I wanted to see them and see if I could have a chance. I called my guy at the Salon who said yes, drop by. I was so excited - maybe it could happen? I chuckle now knowing how naive that was. So I went. Of course I got a big fat “it is impossible, all allocated, but wait, let me bring all three versions so you can put them on your wrist and cry in front of me.” While I was having this experience, a sales lady at another table was telling a customer over the phone, “they are all allocated but they are so beautiful. These are really special.” Then, another customer comes in, they take my watch tray and bring it to him and also give him a big fat no!

These sales folks job was to create more appetite for the brand. I personally found it annoying as they play with your emotions of come and touch them, they are special, but not for you.

Note: I have high respect for Patek and the sales agents at the Salon who are professionals. I just think there is something off with the marketing.

...and then I remember it is just a watch.

He has been watching too much Pacino...

Look, but don’t touch.
Touch, but don’t taste.
Taste, but don’t swallow.

Now go sleep with your sister.

[Robine]

Ok.

What would have been a better alternative? Not to show you the watches?

[rockdrock]

Originally Posted by Robine

Ok.

What would have been a better alternative? Not to show you the watches?

Fair question. Not sure exactly. It was nice to see them but not sure I would have done the trip if told that these are impossible to get over the phone.

[David001]

My AD does something even better, he said he'd put me on the list and it was very, very unlikely, but there is still an outside chance

Studies have shown that if you pursue your goals and there is a good chance of success then your brain releases chemicals that make you feel good. But the crazy thing is that as the likelihood of success dwindles your brain releases even more chemicals - it's the thrill of the chase.

Patek are dangling a carrot and creating a chase, the rational part of your brain can make sense of it and tells you to stop, but the older and more instinctive parts of your brain can smell blood and it thinks there might be a chance.

[Robine]

I don't think there is a way how PP can get this right.

Imagine they would build a new manufacturing plant for SS watches only, to keep up with the demand, and suddenly 5711s would be available at the old list price of EUR 17500 or what it was, with a small discount if you buy two.

No?

Then how should they play it?

[bonsai-man]

Originally Posted by David001

I'm not sure it's as simple as that.

Of the 30 Nautilus models for sale some of them are very rare, but of the 15 Calatravas for sale only one or two are rare.

I rub shoulders with some high net worth people and I'm often in a 'watch-rich' environment, but I hardly ever meet anyone that owns a Nautilus, whereas I often come across people with a Calatrava.
I own two Calatravas, but only one Nautilus.

On this basis, my (also totally unscientific) assumption was that there are a lot more Calatravas out there than Nautilus. I figured that Patek make a lot more Calatravas as their bread & butter watches than they do Nautilus, in the same way that Rolex makes/sells more Datejusts than Daytonas.

Agree, it not about how many models are in the catalog. Everyone I know has at least one Calatrava, even my house cleaner. I gave it to them for 20 years service.

[RoscoPico]

Originally Posted by Russell996

Have they done it with popular pieces such as the new Snoopy?

officially it is fcfs, at least according to the AD's OB's I've spoken to. but i have a friend who was not too high on the list, but is a great spender, and already has his now.


as for the business model, it's a no-brainer to cater to the best customers first. how would you feel if you (not you Russell, but in general) spent 200k, then hear a walk-in ended up with a watch you have been waiting for.
it's a matter of how accessible do these brands want to make themselves. seems like Rolex has stepped it up a notch and became more elite, fine no problem for me.
time will tell

[RoscoPico]

Originally Posted by bonsai-man

Agree, it not about how many models are in the catalog. Everyone I know has at least one Calatrava, even my house cleaner. I gave it to them for 20 years service.

are you hiring ?

[David001]

This is controversial but having spent some time reviewing the models out there and making enquiries I think PP are still very dependant on the sports watches for brand recognition and turning people on to the brand - if I were being dramatic then I might suggest possibly even for their survival. If PP dropped the sports range tomorrow then they may not survive.
When they know you have money to spend ADs are very keen to sell you complications and grand complications, few of those are in high demand, most can be seen on the shelves in any busy AD or boutique. The sports watches sell themselves, the other watches not so much, they still need keen sales people to move them on in sufficient numbers to not become a Nautilus/Aqua only brand.

The Calatrava seems to be the exception, there is no shortage of them (I saw one purchased recently and as soon as the guy left the SA bought another one from the storeroom to put in it's place) but they are still very popular and seem not to need any sales work to sell them.
Everyone should have a classic dress watch in their collection and if you only have one then it should be a Calatrava.

[rolexstella]

Originally Posted by Robine

I don't think there is a way how PP can get this right.

Imagine they would build a new manufacturing plant for SS watches only, to keep up with the demand, and suddenly 5711s would be available at the old list price of EUR 17500 or what it was, with a small discount if you buy two.

No?

Then how should they play it?

Ultimately, I think they need to create a Tudor concept. If they try to capture the mass market they will destroy the brand. It’s partially the rise of the independents - small production , excellence, it’s what vintage Patek represents...

[Robine]

Maybe they could M&A up and take over Czapek? Or Frederique Philippe Constant(in)?

[liljctl]

Originally Posted by RoscoPico

are you hiring ?

But you gotta wait 20 years to flog it. =)

[azizu]

Originally Posted by de66

Russel, I know you. You probably didnt mean it this way but lets not make it appear as if I made a suggestion that they should pretend as if they no longer make the pieces. For the record I said no such thing.

It is not my place nor my duty to think of a solution to problems that Mr. Stern says he is trying to deal with. I simply communicated my lack of understanding with the current state of affairs and the supposed solution presented.
Like with the 5711P there is no point in offering pieces in a catalog if they are not available to the general public. Making announcements about the special final 5711 in interviews is unnecessary if this watch is only made and given to reward your best customers. The "somehow" has already been demonstrated by Patek with the 5711P where, for a year, even many ADs did not know the existence of this watch. They dont need to be hidden, but they dont need to be catalog/showcase presented either. Just my 2c

What makes you think the aquanauts and nautilus are the bread and butter of ADs? The ADs I know are sick of these models because they take up an unjustified large share of their daily work answering phone calls from cold callers asking for aquanaut or nautilus. Sales staff at the Salon explained how they frequently get walk ins who ask for these watches without any prior purchase history and know next to nothing about the brand history. Obviously these are politely declined, but still take up a lot of time . Most of their sales are apparently still Calatravas.

Mr. Stern has said in numerous interviews that it is his target not to allocate more than one third of production to steel sports watches which also includes the top seller Twenty4. According to some of the sales staff at the Geneva salon, if he gets anywhere close to that then it could mean around 10'000 ladies, and 10'000 mens of both aquanaut (5167, 5164, 5968) and Nautilus (5711,5712,5726,5990). Nobody claims to know the exact numbers

D

Making such special pieces and widely advertising such special pieces is part of the allure of Patek Philippe.
That is why 1 of ones and 1 of threes Fitch millions of CHF in auctions.
Marketing and advertising is part of brand equity. And it is part of why we love and desire PP. then go out and work hard to spend our hard earned $ on them. Part of the satisfaction


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