Publicly-traded Cannabis Industry Companies

[2ltdjorn]

Who owns Cheetos?

[Mercury2wo]

Originally Posted by mcorliss

The whole sector is finding a bottom. After all, the general market did just experience two down 1,000 point days last week. All this sideways trading is beneficial towards building key support for future gains.

mcorliss -
You think it is the effect of the recent flurry of purchases and deal making Aphria has done?
The article below has me a bit concerned.
The big draw of Aphria was “Quarter on Quarter Net Profits” - but with the recent acquisitions - it seems difficult.
The article summarizes nicely.

Might explain why Aphria has been suffering last 1 week, while others have actually rallied along with the broad market.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/414...-buying-aphria

As the one of the experts here - what are your views?

[Mercury2wo]

Originally Posted by 2ltdjorn

Who owns Cheetos?

PepsiCo ( I am almost certain)

[mcorliss]

Originally Posted by Mercury2wo

mcorliss -
You think it is the effect of the recent flurry of purchases and deal making Aphria has done?
The article below has me a bit concerned.
The big draw of Aphria was “Quarter on Quarter Net Profits” - but with the recent acquisitions - it seems difficult.
The article summarizes nicely.

Might explain why Aphria has been suffering last 1 week, while others have actually rallied along with the broad market.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/414...-buying-aphria

As the one of the experts here - what are your views?

I don’t agree with the author’s insistence on applying traditional backwards looking fundamental analysis towards an industry that the full story has not even been written yet. Those types of analysts don’t apply the same logic towards Amazon, Netflix, etc. This is one point where you have to just let the story unfold with the passage of adult use later in 2018.

The bears have the same old recycled arguments: too expensive of a TTM P/E, but refuse to consider the explosion of forward 2019 earnings when the companies hit their (mostly 50%) fuller stride. 2018 will be multiples better than 2017, but 2019 will be the real watershed transition year. That’s when a huge new limited to only flower/oils market initially comes on-line, plus further expansion into larger new international markets (many multiples larger than Canada alone).

2019 will most likely be the year that edibles are introduced, after the government gets more comfortable with the concept of legal adult use access. Edibles will ultimately dwarf flower/oil as it is more discrete, less unhealthy option of consumption. While all this is happening, the investments in medical marijuana will start to show actual research documented benefits. By then, expect the CBD-only nutraceuticals market to really pick up.

None of the above, the true potential of the industry, is being factored into the author’s, and other bear’s analysis. Unfortunately, it will be a very volatile ride in the interim, as short-sellers/bears manipulate the prices of these stocks and public opinion with sky is falling commentary. It doesn’t take too many down trading days in a row and planted negative stories to change investor sentiment.

The reality is these companies (the largest of them) will survive AND thrive. Their massive first mover advantage and deep pockets will allow them to sustain themselves during heightened periods of negativity like we are currently in, until the next bull wave commences, likely in the late-Spring. In the interim, it will naturally be a volatile ride, but also a once in a lifetime buying opportunity at these price levels. Despite all the negativity and downward selling pressure, the very acquisitions/partnerships that the author criticizes are totally transforming what were only single focus businesses only two months ago into true early stage multinationals.

Long explanation, but that is what is happening. You kind of have to tune out the negativity and stick to the main fundamental points: are the public opinions of cannabis use being more accepted (Yes!), are more people choosing it over alcohol (yes), are the profit margins after this one-time costly expansion period going to be tremendous (absolutely!), will there be a huge gain in newer and better ways to utilize all parts of the plant for both medical and recreational use (definitely!), are the tobacco/alcohol/pharmaceutical industries concerned about losing market share to cannabis (for sure!).

Lastly, there is definitely a green rush mentality going on right now, but many players will either be absorbed by Big Cannabis or will just fail outright. The top 4 companies (Canopy, Aphria, Aurora, and to some extent MedReleaf) are the safest places to be in my opinion. Hope that helps.

[superdog]

personally, I have the 5 stocks mostly mentioned in this thread. And I have done some homework on all of them. They appear to be solid companies.

And I have zero doubts about the industry. I get that the numbers right now might not justify high valuations and pricing. But I think it is only a matter of time.

My struggle right now is only that I want to buy more. Watching it go down does not necessarily make me happy, but not because I am too worried. Mostly because it makes me want to buy more.

But I am staying the course. I hope I am not kicking myself when I see this market explode in the years to come.

[SMD]

Originally Posted by superdog

personally, I have the 5 stocks mostly mentioned in this thread. And I have done some homework on all of them. They appear to be solid companies.

And I have zero doubts about the industry. I get that the numbers right now might not justify high valuations and pricing. But I think it is only a matter of time.

My struggle right now is only that I want to buy more. Watching it go down does not necessarily make me happy, but not because I am too worried. Mostly because it makes me want to buy more.

But I am staying the course. I hope I am not kicking myself when I see this market explode in the years to come.

We should talk sometime.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by SMD

We should talk sometime.

That sounds ominous.

[Mosco]

Originally Posted by superdog

That sounds ominous.

I got yo' back, Seth

[Mr. Nice Watch]

Nearly doubled my positions in Aphria and Aurora today. Also added heavily to Hydropothecary and Canopy. I suspect the stock value may drop further but I would hate to miss out on a potential upward trend. I'm sure that dilemma is as old as the market.

[Mercury2wo]

Originally Posted by mcorliss

I don’t agree with the author’s insistence on applying traditional backwards looking fundamental analysis towards an industry that the full story has not even been written yet. Those types of analysts don’t apply the same logic towards Amazon, Netflix, etc. This is one point where you have to just let the story unfold with the passage of adult use later in 2018.

The bears have the same old recycled arguments: too expensive of a TTM P/E, but refuse to consider the explosion of forward 2019 earnings when the companies hit their (mostly 50%) fuller stride. 2018 will be multiples better than 2017, but 2019 will be the real watershed transition year. That’s when a huge new limited to only flower/oils market initially comes on-line, plus further expansion into larger new international markets (many multiples larger than Canada alone).

2019 will most likely be the year that edibles are introduced, after the government gets more comfortable with the concept of legal adult use access. Edibles will ultimately dwarf flower/oil as it is more discrete, less unhealthy option of consumption. While all this is happening, the investments in medical marijuana will start to show actual research documented benefits. By then, expect the CBD-only nutraceuticals market to really pick up.

None of the above, the true potential of the industry, is being factored into the author’s, and other bear’s analysis. Unfortunately, it will be a very volatile ride in the interim, as short-sellers/bears manipulate the prices of these stocks and public opinion with sky is falling commentary. It doesn’t take too many down trading days in a row and planted negative stories to change investor sentiment.

The reality is these companies (the largest of them) will survive AND thrive. Their massive first mover advantage and deep pockets will allow them to sustain themselves during heightened periods of negativity like we are currently in, until the next bull wave commences, likely in the late-Spring. In the interim, it will naturally be a volatile ride, but also a once in a lifetime buying opportunity at these price levels. Despite all the negativity and downward selling pressure, the very acquisitions/partnerships that the author criticizes are totally transforming what were only single focus businesses only two months ago into true early stage multinationals.

Long explanation, but that is what is happening. You kind of have to tune out the negativity and stick to the main fundamental points: are the public opinions of cannabis use being more accepted (Yes!), are more people choosing it over alcohol (yes), are the profit margins after this one-time costly expansion period going to be tremendous (absolutely!), will there be a huge gain in newer and better ways to utilize all parts of the plant for both medical and recreational use (definitely!), are the tobacco/alcohol/pharmaceutical industries concerned about losing market share to cannabis (for sure!).

Lastly, there is definitely a green rush mentality going on right now, but many players will either be absorbed by Big Cannabis or will just fail outright. The top 4 companies (Canopy, Aphria, Aurora, and to some extent MedReleaf) are the safest places to be in my opinion. Hope that helps.

Thanks for taking the time out, Mcorliss!
It did help!

[bing240sx]

APH is rock solid, i hope they buy out something im holding at a nice premium so that i can get some more APH shares back. I'm too proud to pay cash again for them.

APH has a pretty strong network of companies in which they have a notable position.

They have been seed capital for a number of the other emerging companies and you would think that over time they will have the inside track to acquire these firms.

In particular, they have a large stake in HIKU which is the merged DOJA and Tokyo Smoke. Doja is run by the dude who started SAXX underwear and Tokyo Smoke has some really interesting premium coffee / head shops just waiting to be allowed to sell the flower. This is about as serious a rec/branding play as exists in the publically traded canadian space right now.

also, APH has money into TBP who is in late stage clinical trials on a few drugs.

I expect over time APH will consolidate these and others into their portfolio on the way.

Also hoping the same is true of NINE who just got the license in MB with Canopy. Hoping Canopy issues paper for NINE at a premium so i can get back into Canopy.

[1st amg]

With the quebec government announcing the other day, hydropothecary is in, will this be their only claim to fame?

[mcorliss]

Originally Posted by 1st amg

With the quebec government announcing the other day, hydropothecary is in, will this be their only claim to fame?

Hydropothecary is in a unique semi-protected position in Quebec, but they are woefully behind in broadening their reach. I always tended to view them more as a pure play acquiree than acquirer. Maybe with their recent bought deal funding things change that, but I suspect they will continue to remain more measured in their approach.

[cornerstore]

The trend is to lower wholesale pricing in this US market. How Canada goes is still an open question. Chart is till June 17 article link dated yesterday, retail prices dropping, wholesale prices still looking for a floor.

http://registerguard.com/rg/news/loc...lodes.html.csp

https://www.cannabisbenchmarks.com

[Mosco]

Something to check out, I believe Aphria has partial ownership in this company which will start trading on NASDAQ day after tomorrow:

https://globenewswire.com/news-relea...sing-Bell.html

[Carrera911]

Is anybody else getting a feeling this is only going south ?
I am down 25% on my greenhouse portfolio

[1st amg]

This is definitely ugly. No choice but to sit on this for a very long time...these stocks could be passed down a generation as a family heirloom! Oh well


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[GB-man]

Originally Posted by 1st amg

This is definitely ugly. No choice but to sit on this for a very long time...these stocks could be passed down a generation as a family heirloom! Oh well


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

As long as it includes the 458 I am sure nick jr will be cool with it

[Dr.LJ]

Still trying to remain patient...

[Baco Noir]

Glad I bought in in mid Dec - still up around 15% after the pull back, but was up nearly double at the peak. Got greedy and was waiting for a full double to take some money off the table. Oh well, realistically it's a long play anyway to see where the profit margins fall after the distribution deals are signed and 6-12 months of sales come in.

[clock]

Anyone see this ?


Pot Pharm: Booming Canada Weed Sector Plots Next-Wave Medicines

By Nichola Saminather
February 20, 2018

TORONTO (Reuters) - Canopy Growth Corp, one of the world's biggest medical marijuana producers, now wants to take on the world's pharmaceutical giants.
The Canadian firm launched Canopy Health Innovation in late 2016 to build a portfolio of patented and federally approved cannabinoid-based medicines. The venture is one of a small but growing number of companies here aiming to compete with established drugs treating diseases ranging from anxiety and chronic pain to multiple sclerosis and childhood epilepsy.

[1st amg]

Originally Posted by GB-man

As long as it includes the 458 I am sure nick jr will be cool with it

Haha! Good one


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[GB-man]

Originally Posted by 1st amg

Haha! Good one


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Glad you find my humor tolerable nick! My gut says in due time everyone in will be fine. You all know the routine. Just have to wait.

[G8RDPM]

I'm riding this out. Was up 30% like all of you guys right after I bought. I wish I had time to day trade. I still believe it is in its infancy! Hope M comments!
Hope it's like Apple when my friend Forrest Gump recommended it in 1994? I was a fool not to buy then. Not risking anything that I can't afford to lose,but it is more than a PM Rolex!

[superdog]

Yeah. Down 23%. Don’t like to see it.

But not worried. 12 months if it looks like this I’ll put on a frown.

This is a slow burn. And it’s going to grow. Biggest mistake anyone can make is sell. It’s going to come back with a vengeance.

[Carrera911]

I let it burn to the ground before I sell

[Chloe&Harley]

http://www.wellandtribune.ca/2018/02...annabis-campus
Local college is making this a full time course .

[mcorliss]

To those disheartened by the recent consolidation of the Cannabis stock prices, one only has to look to the post price performance to see the future. Look to the stock charts if you have any questions about how these stock can and will trade as we get closer to late-Spring. The prior 52 week highs will definitely be breached again, and then some.

The bears are focused on the TTM fundamentals while valuing these companies, not what normalized earnings will look like going forward once adult use rec is finally launched late Summer. If one models out anticipated demand/sales levels, then backs out cash costs of production, and applies a reasonable growth P/E for an exploding high margin industry, you are going to see stock prices easily 2-3x higher than where they trade today by late-Fall.

During this long drawn out no real news quiet period until royal assent is granted, they will continued to re-test the lows from 3-4 weeks ago as they build a good base. They are almost there now, but could re-test lows this coming week. Personally, I am likely increasing my holdings by another 35% next week. Doing so is how the real money is made once they quickly retake prior trading levels. I for one am not going to miss out on accumulating more shares at these discount prices. You all should do what you feel comfortable doing, but realize if you don’t capture these low prices now, you will have some serious regrets come Aug/Sept/Oct.

Not saying companies like Aphria are going to hit $80 anytime soon, but high $20s to $30s is extremely possible, and if there is another large multi-national investment similar to Constellation’s 10-20% acquisition of Canopy’s shares, the whole sector will squirt higher again very quickly. I fully expect that to happen before the actual adult rec launch, but after royal assent is granted. It is going to be a very exciting Summer now that there is a lot more institutional money chasing this sector via bought deals and ETFs. Bay Street is finally coming around now too as BMO and other’s start getting more cozy with the next big growth industry. Don’t be surprised when you see more research analyst recommendations coming as underwriting the sector becomes more common.

[Gaijin]

In TRF terms, I was up about a NIB GMT II C, now I’m down about a slightly worn OP 39. Nothing to laugh about but it’s better than crying.

But I’m not stressing. It’s just good news after good news after good news in the cannabis sector.

So I’m holding long term. It’s gonna be ok all.

[bing240sx]

i was up a couple Platonas now im only up one Platona and a couple date justs :)