Should I buy a 5711 Blue dial

[mrpstl750]

If I can buy a 5711 blue dial, just service at Patek for 105k, should I buy it.

I’m convinced the watch will stay around 100k.

Thoughts.

[Calatrava r]

Are not most trading higher? Seems like 105 is a good price to me if you want the watch enough to pay the second market going price. I would not count on these staying high to influence your decision. Clearly, you can lose money at this level down the road.

[Murcielagoboy2]

Originally Posted by mrpstl750

If I can buy a 5711 blue dial, just service at Patek for 105k, should I buy it.

I’m convinced the watch will stay around 100k.

Thoughts.

honestly? No.
There is nothing, NOTHING about this watch which should make it a cent more than MSRP.

HOWEVER, if you're one of those people that must have the latest/greatest/zeitgeist......

[dannyp]

Originally Posted by Murcielagoboy2

if you're one of those people that must have the latest/greatest/zeitgeist......

Then wait to way, way, way overpay for the replacement :)

[HMHM]

If you are comfortable then go for it. It’s your money your choice. Ultimately you gain the most enjoyment out of the watch, not us. That being said, 105k is a lot of money and personally, I’m beginning to see signs that collectors may be moving away from SS sport watches perhaps due to fatigue from constantly seeing the same few models over and over again. Things might change tomorrow either in your favour if the 5711 goes beyond 105k after you have bought it or the flavour of the moment may change and you may lose money.

So buy the watch only if you like it and you can afford the losses. Gain is a bonus. All the best.

[woof]

I would buy it because its a beautiful watch and would wear it whenever I can. If I get tired of it, I can always be able to sell it.

[WatchEater666]

I think at that price point there are way more interesting and objectively better made watches available. Used Romain Gauthier, Gronefeld, etc. You can get a Patek with a ton of complications for less.

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by HMHM

That being said, 105k is a lot of money and personally, I’m beginning to see signs that collectors may be moving away from SS sport watches perhaps due to fatigue from constantly seeing the same few models over and over again.

I hold a different view in that sport watches are stronger than ever. I think many buyers are generally buying dress watches due to the unavailability of sport watches and as a bundle/history to get their sport watches which are otherwise unobtainable. With the exception of FP Journe and a few odd pcs, dress watches are doing badly in the grey market relative to the sport watches.

[Nsane]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I hold a different view in that sport watches are stronger than ever. I think many buyers are generally buying dress watches due to the unavailability of sport watches and as a bundle/history to get their sport watches which are otherwise unobtainable. With the exception of FP Journe and a few odd pcs, dress watches are doing badly in the grey market relative to the sport watches.

I agree. This was clearly reflected in recent auctions. SS sports watches have been pulling in crazy numbers. By contrast, classic Patek and Lange dress watches have attracted low prices, save for truly exceptional pieces.

Among dress watches, FPJ is the sole exception. However, outside the 38mm and super rare stuff, FPJ prices are greatly distorted by Watchbox amassing inventory voraciously.

[thomaspp]

Long time members were buying these for 22-24k all day.... not worth that! LOL


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[llngoc]

Originally Posted by Nsane

I agree. This was clearly reflected in recent auctions. SS sports watches have been pulling in crazy numbers. By contrast, classic Patek and Lange dress watches have attracted low prices, save for truly exceptional pieces.

Among dress watches, FPJ is the sole exception. However, outside the 38mm and super rare stuff, FPJ prices are greatly distorted by Watchbox amassing inventory voraciously.

FPJ’s 2022 production is already sold out. Not sure if it is a sign of watchbox amassing the entire 2022 production as Govberg will not be an AD for FPJ anymore.

[subtona]

the 5711 nautilus is an exceptional watch and imho with 120m WR in stainless, the ultimate sports watch. once you get over the price and dealing with the soon to come scratches it can provide a very pleasant daily wearing experience but many have commonly had a difficult time coming to terms with the scratches, this has in fact greatly impacted their enjoyment.

arguably the average rolex sports model should satisfy 95 percent of the users desires as a daily wear for a steep fraction of the cost. however, if you are seeking that last 5 percent that brings exclusivity and a thinner dressier offering, you will have to pay.

at 25k i felt it was too much compared to my simple submariner ... that said it is the only watch that i have worn and sold that i want again.

i very much want it again, perhaps in white this time?

105 too much? only you can say... that was nearly the price of the exceedingly rare platinum version just a few short years ago.

did i mention i want one?

[agsstructures]

At this point I don’t know what advice to give anymore

[Becweb]

Nice watch, certainly not worth the current market price to my eyes, especially when compared to amazing other models from Patek even. I would say don't buy it, unless you are absolutely sure you love it and are not following the hype.

[jamestucker]

Originally Posted by mrpstl750

If I can buy a 5711 blue dial, just service at Patek for 105k, should I buy it.

I’m convinced the watch will stay around 100k.

Thoughts.

Have you received any PMs offering it for less than 95K

A UK grey dealer has several blue dial 5711s but none of those are moving

[cascavel]

When the 5711 began trading above MSRP collectors were skeptical, when it passed $40K they were surprised, when it got to $60K they were incensed, at $80K they were outraged and now most are apoplectic. Unless they own one or two.
The 5711 is a beautiful, functional, now discontinued wristwatch. Sure, for $100K one can buy a gold watch with a lot of complications that are useless to most wearers.
If you love the 5711 and can afford the freight and won't commit suicide if it trades down to $70K during the next recession then do it.

[BillA]

If you spend that kind of money over MSRP for a watch, then Barnum was right.

[smg8]

Not for me, but then I turned one down at list (white dial) as I didn't like it.

I can think of many watches I'd prefer for a fraction of the cost.

[HMHM]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I hold a different view in that sport watches are stronger than ever. I think many buyers are generally buying dress watches due to the unavailability of sport watches and as a bundle/history to get their sport watches which are otherwise unobtainable. With the exception of FP Journe and a few odd pcs, dress watches are doing badly in the grey market relative to the sport watches.

I see you point and in some ways it’s hard to refute the evidence that you have provided in regards to the ever increasing auction prices for Nautilus and Daytona etc. Personally I feel we are almost reaching the peak of those watches? I might be wrong and maybe people are buying dress watches as a leverage to get the steel sports models or as a consolation but as an observation on the forum I think people are asking for opinions about dress watches lately particularly the 5205, 5905, 5960 etc. As much as I think the Nautilus is a great watch with great prestige, it’s a bit boring nowadays with everyone having the same watch / going after the same watch. People might hate John Mayer, but I think he said it best in his Talking Watches 2 episode at the very end where people are given the same iPhone and Instagram account , and watches are a way of differentiating one from another. It feels like most people are converging towards one end game which is steel sports watches but I think once we reach that point people will diversify again because it’s just so god damn boring nowadays especially if you read the Rolex discussion board. Another BLRO, BLNR, CHNR, Daytona etc …..

[franchise717]

Have you contacted any of our Trusted Sellers to see if they can do better than $105k?

[S``]

Originally Posted by HMHM

I see you point and in some ways it’s hard to refute the evidence that you have provided in regards to the ever increasing auction prices for Nautilus and Daytona etc. Personally I feel we are almost reaching the peak of those watches? I might be wrong and maybe people are buying dress watches as a leverage to get the steel sports models or as a consolation but as an observation on the forum I think people are asking for opinions about dress watches lately particularly the 5205, 5905, 5960 etc. As much as I think the Nautilus is a great watch with great prestige, it’s a bit boring nowadays with everyone having the same watch / going after the same watch. People might hate John Mayer, but I think he said it best in his Talking Watches 2 episode at the very end where people are given the same iPhone and Instagram account , and watches are a way of differentiating one from another. It feels like most people are converging towards one end game which is steel sports watches but I think once we reach that point people will diversify again because it’s just so god damn boring nowadays especially if you read the Rolex discussion board. Another BLRO, BLNR, CHNR, Daytona etc …..

Caveat Emptor, the forum is not a representation of real life. If it is, 5711 would go for $20k, your Rolex steel, except for the DaytonaC would all be selling for a discount... Finally, your 15500 would go for 35% off at an AD.

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by HMHM

As much as I think the Nautilus is a great watch with great prestige, it’s a bit boring nowadays with everyone having the same watch / going after the same watch. People might hate John Mayer, but I think he said it best in his Talking Watches 2 episode at the very end where people are given the same iPhone and Instagram account , and watches are a way of differentiating one from another. It feels like most people are converging towards one end game which is steel sports watches but I think once we reach that point people will diversify again because it’s just so god damn boring nowadays especially if you read the Rolex discussion board. Another BLRO, BLNR, CHNR, Daytona etc …..

To be frank, I have not seen many Nautilus, and especially the 5711, in the wild. Outside of Patek events, I only saw it twice in my life. I also seldom see the rest of the Nautilus models out there. They are not common at all based on my personal experience.

Rolex Sport, yes, they are more frequently seen on wrists. I can probably spot a SS sub and GMT on a daily basis (SS Daytona and Skydweller are not that common too) near my workplace or at the malls. Nothing wrong with that but the point I am making is that the low production of Patek Sport models is by itself a differentiating factor. This is also reflected in their secondary pricing.

Can't comment on the boring aspect but when I see a Nautilus in the wild, I can feel my heart pump a little faster. I quite like these shiny sport watches by Patek, though that doesn’t mean I don't like their dress watches as they are not mutually exclusive

[2nastie]

If you are convinced it would stay around $100k then you have you answer.

The "market" right now is roughly around that number.

I just think there are a lot better watches out there for $100k for the collection I could afford. If you are a multi-millionaire or billionaire with a lot more disposable cash, then $100k against your net worth isn't much now isn't it.

[ts3]

Originally Posted by HMHM

... maybe people are buying dress watches as a leverage to get the steel sports models or as a consolation ...

In my case it was a 5711 that had to serve as a consolation years ago. For I had missed out on a nice 3700 full set with cork box for EUR 36k then.

OP, given you think the 5711 will stay near 100k all you need to make sure is you really like the watch and it comes in the condition you want.

[BonVivantGems]

Kind of crazy to me that people are considering paying that much for a time-only nautilus, when you could get very complicated pieces from the likes of Patek, ALS, VC for the same price. Heck, you could even get a brand new VC Overseas Tourb if you wanted a sports watch. To each their own, but I certainly wouldn't.

[MadSpaniard]

I'll concede the Nautilus is a nice watch at MSRP.

But let's remember the Nautilus was never intended or positioned as a horological statement piece - the Sterns themselves are on the record saying it was intended as a sporty onramp to the brand.

At $105k, that's getting into perpetual and chrono level cash. And let's face it, the Nautilus is not a particularly scarce watch. Let's not confuse exuberant demand with intrinsic rarity. And in this case, it's about demand that's been largely generated in recent years on an avalanche of social media.

Buying at $105k is a speculative decision. And yes, the price could easily rise more, in which case buying might be a reasonable thing to do. But that has little to do with the fundamentals of the watch itself.

There are sheets of toilet paper that sell for big money because Elvis wiped his ass on it. The point being, there are times when market demand/price gets completely disconnected from the underlying fundamentals of the actual thing itself.

I think that's what happened with the Nautilus. And any purchase decision at $105k should take that disconnection into consideration.

[ap1]

You should

[Vipes]

If you think it is worth the asking price then I say do it.

[llngoc]

If you think you like the watch enough at $105k that if it drops to $30k next month, you would still enjoy it the same way, I would say go for it.

You can easily lose that much in the stock or bitcoin market in a day and you are don't get to enjoy it.

[Murcielagoboy2]

Originally Posted by MadSpaniard

I'll concede the Nautilus is a nice watch at MSRP.

But let's remember the Nautilus was never intended or positioned as a horological statement piece - the Sterns themselves are on the record saying it was intended as a sporty onramp to the brand.

At $105k, that's getting into perpetual and chrono level cash. And let's face it, the Nautilus is not a particularly scarce watch. Let's not confuse exuberant demand with intrinsic rarity. And in this case, it's about demand that's been largely generated in recent years on an avalanche of social media.

Buying at $105k is a speculative decision. And yes, the price could easily rise more, in which case buying might be a reasonable thing to do. But that has little to do with the fundamentals of the watch itself.

There are sheets of toilet paper that sell for big money because Elvis wiped his ass on it. The point being, there are times when market demand/price gets completely disconnected from the underlying fundamentals of the actual thing itself.

I think that's what happened with the Nautilus. And any purchase decision at $105k should take that disconnection into consideration.

Superb post.