So is HK greys healing?

[Fat_ninja]

Have we passed the worst in terms of inventory? Is it starting to improve? Curious what u guys/gals think

[Apheaven]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Have we passed the worst in terms of inventory? Is it starting to improve? Curious what u guys/gals think

I would say the world is not falling apart...


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[dsquared2]

I only see a little recession of the prices in hot models.

TBH I believe when the dealers pull their stock out, as the pieces keep being difficult to get, the prices will be higher again.

[threefirstnames]

Originally Posted by dsquared2

I only see a little recession of the prices in hot models.

TBH I believe when the dealers pull their stock out, as the pieces keep being difficult to get, the prices will be higher again.

+1 on this - Prices will begin to inflate again.

[yoast]

With all the police needed for the protestors, looting is starting now.
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/...obberies-spike

My grey has a shop but keeps the shutters 3/4 open and no more watches in the windows. He sells mostly wholesale now, also through his contacts and travels to mainland China to meet with customers.
So he told me he's still ok.
The larger ones are hiring private security guards.

As for pricing, I'd say some deals can be had here and there, but most will also sit on stock and do not come down much as they paid high prices and don't want to lose $, so they keep a lot of stuff in the safe, waiting for prices to rise again.

[Apheaven]

Originally Posted by Apheaven

I would say the world is not falling apart...


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I also believe that Patek has slowed down distribution accordingly to compensate for such, thus preventing any material price drops.
The number of new pieces coming to ADs has slowed to a crawl...from what I see


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[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by yoast

With all the police needed for the protestors, looting is starting now.
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/...obberies-spike

My grey has a shop but keeps the shutters 3/4 open and no more watches in the windows. He sells mostly wholesale now, also through his contacts and travels to mainland China to meet with customers.
So he told me he's still ok.
The larger ones are hiring private security guards.

As for pricing, I'd say some deals can be had here and there, but most will also sit on stock and do not come down much as they paid high prices and don't want to lose $, so they keep a lot of stuff in the safe, waiting for prices to rise again.

Crazy times we live in...

Originally Posted by Apheaven

I also believe that Patek has slowed down distribution accordingly to compensate for such, thus preventing any material price drops.
The number of new pieces coming to ADs has slowed to a crawl...from what I see


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Can u imagine what the auction results would have been if he didn’t slow it down.

[locutus49]

The holiday season, at least in the US, may skew the inventory and sales of luxury goods. I think in mid-January we will have a better idea of where things stand. I don't know if the holiday season is the same for the Chinese or if they spend like Americans.

[martinr]

I really doubt Thierry Stern or Patek slows down or speeds up deliveries to compensate for the “market”.

[BigAppleBill]

Originally Posted by martinr

I really doubt Thierry Stern or Patek slows down or speeds up deliveries to compensate for the “market”.

Agree with this. Certainly Patek can’t be making production decisions on such a short term basis. They have a long term strategic plan like any other business. Besides, they’re selling their products just fine as there’s plenty of demand. It’s just the secondary market that may have inventories backing up.

While there’s been a softening, secondary prices are still considerably above retail. For example prices for a 5711a peaked around the low $70K range and now appear to be in the low to mid $60K range (still double retail). One would assume that greys are adjusting and offering less to flippers. Time will tell where the market finds an equilibrium and levels off.

I think the Hong Kong situation is the biggest driver of this slump. As long as the Hong Kong situation remains tenuous and unpredictable, there will be a negative drag on secondary market prices. And I’m sure there are many people ready to step in and buy if prices continue to slip.

If somehow a resolution comes to the Hong Kong conflict and there’s a perception by the mainland Chinese that it’s safe to visit Hong Kong again, prices could very well spike right back to their highs. Time will tell.

For those who don’t own a 5711a, if grey prices hit $50K or just under $50K, would you be a buyer? I know I would definitely think about it, especially if it’s one of the newer models with the 330 S C movement with hacking seconds.

By the way, I in no way intend to sound flippant about what’s going on in Hong Kong. I respect what’s happening and what’s at stake for its residents. I’m hopeful that a peaceful resolution is reached.

[Ichiran]

The mainland Chinese are now shopping in other parts of Asia. They are still spending money, just not in HK.

[YUL]

The Chinese New Year is around the corner towards the end of January, so there should be plenty of shopping and gifts soon.


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[Johndong888]

Most of my partners in China have abandon HK in the near future to show their support to mainland.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Johndong888

Most of my partners in China have abandon HK in the near future to show their support to mainland.

That’s not good. Is the secondary mkt moving to singapore? Anyone from Singapore here that can shed some light?

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

That’s not good. Is the secondary mkt moving to singapore? Anyone from Singapore here that can shed some light?

It's hard to quantify secondary figures because they are not published. But looking at Swiss export up to Oct, overall export has increased YoY despite the drop of HK numbers. The rest of the major markets have moved up, probably due to increased spending by mainland chinese in those countries? Chinese imports also went up by 15.6%. It appears they rather pay their luxury tax than to buy in HK. Of course this could be an over simplified way to look at these numbers, but you can interpret differently.
IMG_15122019_065500_(810_x_1250_pixel).jpg

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

It's hard to quantify secondary figures because they are not published. But looking at Swiss export up to Oct, overall export has increased YoY despite the drop of HK numbers. The rest of the major markets have moved up, probably due to increased spending by mainland chinese in those countries? Chinese imports also went up by 15.6%. It appears they rather pay their luxury tax than to buy in HK. Of course this could be an over simplified way to look at these numbers, but you can interpret differently.
Attachment 1094142

Definitely happening in the primary market


Look at ramen boi dissecting the numbers

[007timer]

[QUOTE=Fat_ninja;10200302]Have we passed the worst in terms of inventory? Is it starting to improve? Curious what u guys/gals think[

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Definitely happening in the primary market

Look at ramen boi dissecting the numbers

Just mostly guess work from limited sources of info.

[Josh1000]

I guess it depends on who the market is in HK. If its tourists then they will still buy but just other locations. Remember there are only 2 outlets in China!!! If its local HK then it will depend on whether economic downturn has affected their disposable income. If not they will carry on....the fact is that demand wont go away it will just shift geographies.....perhaps you will see more from UK and Middle East where chinese buyers will divert

[lolo1972sg]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

That’s not good. Is the secondary mkt moving to singapore? Anyone from Singapore here that can shed some light?

It is honestly hard to say for sure. The Singapore grey market has always been supported by tourists in addition to local buyers. Over the past few years, I heard there are more buyers from mainland china. In recent times, I heard there are even wholesale buyers from china who buy here and resell in China.

That said, I know of Singaporean dealers who travel all the way to HK almost on a quarterly basis to stock up their watches.


follow me @beckham1972sg

[fullofboats]

As someone posted above the robberies of grey shops on Kowloon side has had a big impact on the grey business model. All the shops near Jordan have closed permanently and the shops in TST are closed weekends and at 7pm on weekdays. These guys are selling through wechat/whatsapp/fb only now.

Haven't noticed a continued downward trend in prices though, but Pepsi, Batman, Daytonas are now selling slightly cheaper than lowest price on TRF. Watches are easy to physically move so they're probably selling in private now, but the closing of retail shops must be impacting their business model.

[Xerxes77]

I think the price is softening a little now but will remain high for Patek.
Low supply and high demand result price above retail!
And Patek will do nothing because for they it’s good to be like this...

[qrc36]

Deliveries have definitely been slowing down according to my AD but I just got my friend (with a very desirable business card) a 5711 white with just a 10 week wait. I was expecting 6 months but the allocation got through really fast.

And my 5212 was delivered 2 weeks ago. I’m still waiting on my 5164 but it’s been less than 4 months since I made the request. My blue 5605 strap is waiting!

Mainland Chinese can’t get Nautilus / Aquanaut in HK as AD are supposed to be selling to locals only (the name card system is to enforce that).

As for greys, I know that tourists (Mainland and US/Europe/Japan) make up a large bulk of business and so that’s definitely being affected.

Locals aren’t buying much either. 5524G and ladies Nautilus sitting the counter when I picked up the 5212.

[BigAppleBill]

Originally Posted by qrc36

Deliveries have definitely been slowing down according to my AD but I just got my friend (with a very desirable business card) a 5711 white with just a 10 week wait. I was expecting 6 months but the allocation got through really fast.

You’re a very good friend!

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by locutus49

The holiday season, at least in the US, may skew the inventory and sales of luxury goods. I think in mid-January we will have a better idea of where things stand. I don't know if the holiday season is the same for the Chinese or if they spend like Americans.

Traditionally, the first quarter of the year is very strong for watch sales. Whether this still holds true remains to be seen. Summer is always the slowest period and was this year too.