Is it a bad idea to spend money on watches right now?

[RTG]

Originally Posted by IlikeSubs

Given the global pandemic and all.

Is it a bad time for you? Great time for me to buy.

[IlikeSubs]

Originally Posted by RTG

Is it a bad time for you? Great time for me to buy.

Great time to buy at all time high prices?

[mgsooner]

I'd say if you're after one of the red hot pieces that is virtually impossible to source from an AD it certainly wouldn't hurt to pause for a bit and see where this goes rather than buying from a grey.

[kieselguhr]

Originally Posted by Blansky

It's a perfect time.



If we're all gonna die we may as well enjoy ourselves.

Winner!

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by locutus49

If I have the cash I buy luxury goods regardless of market conditions. And if I don't have the spare cash I don't buy luxury goods.

Correct

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by 77T

Good question. For personal use I have waited until the secondary market price drops below MSRP. This inversion usually occurs here in US whenever RolexUSA is cramming product down the throats of ADs despite dropping demand.

This forces ADs to push product out the door at a discount like 25% and grey’s can make money at 10% below MSRP. Not going to happen on some models but a good bellwether.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Exactly.

I just wonder how many people desperate for deflation understand what they are asking for? Sadly the answer is all too apparent.

[Bigblu10]

Bought my first Rolex watch around age 23. Now at 53 and 5 watches later I have never seen Rolex pricing drop. Not any amount for any reason. Keep dreaming folks.

[enjoythemusic]

Like many things in life, it depends on the specifics of the deal.

Originally Posted by beshannon

I just wonder how many people desperate for deflation understand what they are asking for?

Money to actually GAIN in value, and thus not penalize holders of said currency. Do me a favor, calculate 2% inflation (devaluation) compounded annually over only 20 years. How much value is lost from year 0 to year 20?

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Like many things in life, it depends on the specifics of the deal.



Money to actually GAIN in value, and thus not penalize holders of said currency. Do me a favor, calculate 2% inflation (devaluation) compounded annually over only 20 years. How much value is lost from year 0 to year 20?

I have no idea what you are talking about.

The biggest problem created by deflation is that it leads consumers to defer consumption of big-ticket items like appliances, cars and houses. After all, the possibility that prices may go up is a huge motivator for buying big-ticket items (which is why sales and other temporary discounts are so effective).

https://www.investopedia.com/article...s-fight-it.asp

If deflation occurs, people choose to hold on to savings instead of spending it today, since prices will be lower tomorrow—even lower next week, and even lower in a month.

https://www.investopedia.com/article...ad-economy.asp

Many on this forum are hoping/wishing/desperately pining for lower prices. They are hoping that a worldwide pandemic will allow them to buy jewelry at lower prices. Of course they fully expect prices to go back up after they buy, which wont happen in a deflationary scenario.

They should be very very careful what they wish for.

[SPMN]

I mean, how much are prices really going to drop? $5k for a sub? Is that a lot of money in the real world? Yes, but it isn't THAT much.

I guess I've never really understood the whole "prepper" mindset. No matter what happens, life will go on. Life is so short and can end TODAY for any one of us on this board. Enjoy yourself, treat people well, and buy a nice watch if you can afford it and want it.

[enjoythemusic]

i said: Money to actually GAIN in value, and thus not penalize holders of said currency. Do me a favor, calculate 2% inflation (devaluation) compounded annually over only 20 years. How much value is lost from year 0 to year 20?

Originally Posted by beshannon

I have no idea what you are talking about.

Luv ya, and big bro hug... yet EXACTLY the problem with what you said! When you do know how to do very basic annual 2% compounded interest please let me know why you erroneously said to fear deflation, versus the major problem with 2% annual inflation (currency devaluation).

PS: Check your source, it is filled with typical FedSpeak BS imho.

[CortlandtPT]

Just my .02
It’s never a good idea to splurge on anything you can’t really afford. It’s bad to buy anything when you don’t have the funds for it.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Aquafish]

Maybe you're having trouble persuading a significant other to let you get that grail watch? It's always tricky. Most people will say you are mad, then immediately list all the things you could buy instead; a laptop, a dream holiday, a car, maybe even a house deposit...

But you shouldn’t let their reaction put you off buying that dream timepiece.

If you really must explain yourself (or perhaps you need pushing over the line to make the big purchase), here are some compelling reasons to slap down your credit card without even wincing.
1. you have lusted over it
2. you admire the craftsmanship
3. it reminds you of your own achievements
4. it is a thing of beauty
5. it commemorates a special occasion
6. it’s part of who you are

[GradyPhilpott]

Originally Posted by IlikeSubs

I'm willing to pay $5,995 for a 16710.

You're a smart guy.

Originally Posted by locutus49

If I have the cash I buy luxury goods regardless of market conditions. And if I don't have the spare cash I don't buy luxury goods.

Yep, cash only from discretionary funds

[037]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

i said: Money to actually GAIN in value, and thus not penalize holders of said currency. Do me a favor, calculate 2% inflation (devaluation) compounded annually over only 20 years. How much value is lost from year 0 to year 20?

It's been 20+ years since I last took a finance course but I'll SWAG that one at about a 50% loss. That's funny since people are buying $10k watches instantly worth $15k street, making it both frustrating and understandable why we have the speculation and flipping problem of late. They're essentially gaining what 2% @ 20 years would net just sitting idle (assuming it's on the positive, not negative).

But, it still sucks to see the battle between those in it for the love versus those in it for the money. I miss the love.

[mykii]

Probably, but also you only live once!

[walds11]

Originally Posted by mykii

Probably, but also you only live once!

I absolutely agree with this. Just be wise about your decisions!

[jrs146]

If you’re worried about the timing of a watch purchase it’s likely bad time... regardless of global economic conditions.

[Old Geezer]

Originally Posted by locutus49

If I have the cash I buy luxury goods regardless of market conditions. And if I don't have the spare cash I don't buy luxury goods.

Doesn't need to be any more complicated than this.

[fsprow]

I don't change much except in difficult times (if indeed this is one) I up my charitable giving since I think those that need help are particularly affected.

And the last thing I would (ever) do is consider watches an investment.

[enjoythemusic]

Pandemic aside, as the world markets crash we'll see desperate watch sellers like during the banker-caused RE crash of 2007/2008, and then there was the Asian crisis....


Keep your powder dry, some truly great timepiece deals are going to happen soon enough.
In fact made a GREAT deal today on a limited edition.... (see Panerai board)

[superdog]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Pandemic aside, as the world markets crash we'll see desperate watch sellers like during the banker-caused RE crash of 2007/2008, and then there was the Asian crisis....


Keep your powder dry, some truly great timepiece deals are going to happen soon enough.
In fact made a GREAT deal today on a limited edition.... (see Panerai board)

Nice. Will check it out.

FWIW, I’m looking do the same with a watch I have my eye on.

[brianhc99]

I actually think it might be a good idea to sell. I got an offer for one of my pieces the day before the first 3% market drop and pondered it over a while, then decided to when I saw the stock market. I'll put that money to better use buying some bargain companies!

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by 037

...at about a 50% loss.

But, it still sucks to see the battle between those in it for the love versus those in it for the money. I miss the love.

Yes, as 2% targeted inflation means ~50% devaluation in only 20 years. Yes we are in an epic bubble right now, the biggest during my lifetime and that of many consumers. Imho the overall markets are far to skewed and leveraged. Some won't make it out of this Fed-induced bubble 'alive', and that's sad when good people suffer....



10000000% agree about the battle of true enthusiasts who have always loved and admired the craft, tech, and style... versus f@(&ing flippers.