I can see SS discounting at 10-20% in a near future.

[1Sassy1]

Long list at AD’S for the popular models. I don’t think their is a chance of discounting on SS models

[Theoffice]

What a dumb prediction based on nothing; below msrp in your dreams,
A big lol,

[inadeje]

Sadly you’re being over optimistic OP. The first watches to nose dive will be million plus production so called vintage pieces, GMT 16710 and 5 digit subs. I don’t see much happening on new/unworn pieces, since production has ceased, probably for the first time since WWII.

[JRique]

Originally Posted by 1Sassy1

Long list at AD’S for the popular models. I don’t think their is a chance of discounting on SS models

Long list before all this mess...

[44x16]

I don't see that happening Anytime soon even tho the market at the world is on the Fritz..

[cdubg21]

As soon as resale prices approach or equal MSRP its game over for premiums. All of the people buying for a quick buck, or buying knowing they can recoup their money in a pinch, are removed from the equation. This tanks demand at AD’s, SS models end up back in cases, and grays have to discount to compete. Grays discounting = people buying at MSRP selling at a loss. Bye bye flippers, speculators, etc. and hello SS inventory at MSRP

[worldfamoussam]

I can see your underpants.

Enough of these threads already ... we'll find out what's to come when it happens!

[In-Cog-Neeto]

Do I want the prices of luxury items to drop - no - because if they do, it is indicative of a much much wider problem

Do I want everyone to continue doing well and the economy to gain strength - yes - Even if I have to pay a couple grand more for my timepiece - definitely - because it means I will continue to be doing well also

Unfortunately the economy has taken a hit, and in my opinion this effect will be felt for a number of quarters.

Remember what you wish for

[Uga2007]

I don’t see this happening. I know A LOT of people were negatively affected by this but there are still A LOT of people who were insulated and are doing just fine. Rolex makes 1m watches a year, those will still be claimed. Rolex won’t feel a thing. That’s why they won’t sell online. They don’t have to. It will be business as usual.

[interestedwatcher]

Originally Posted by ruffa

+1
This pandemic is short term and will blow over shortly (as it did in China) Things will go back to normal soon. Rolex won’t be flooding the ADs with hot models in the midst of this mess. The lower priced hot pieces on the gray market will eventually sell off and prices will stabilize soon then start going back up after things settle. How are people comparing Rolex today to Rolex in 2010? Rolex is a different beast today. Every watch brand is suffering to a certain extent because of Rolex.

It isn't over in China, and they aren't back to normal.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by interestedwatcher

It isn't over in China, and they aren't back to normal.

Is Fox News parroting this nonsense about Chinese operations being back to normal? I have no idea why so many American members keep saying this when it's so incredibly far from the truth.

[ruffa]

Originally Posted by dmash

Is Fox News parroting this nonsense about Chinese operations being back to normal? I have no idea why so many American members keep saying this when it's so incredibly far from the truth.

Looks like you’re parroting nonsense. I work with multiple Chinese manufactures and their companies have been up and running for over 2 weeks now.

[DJ39]

Originally Posted by Rexplorer214270

What would you call it if it wasn’t demand?

It’s called willingness to pay not demand; its economic concept related To negotiations between two willing parties

There is no demand just a willingness to pay above retail

A bubble is a situation in which the market price is not certain, in a bubble the price is someone’s willingness to pay X


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[dmash]

Originally Posted by ruffa

Looks like you’re parroting nonsense. I work with multiple Chinese manufactures and their companies have been up and running for over 2 weeks now.

Lol and I work with multiple Chinese manufacturers. Did I ever say 'who is saying Chinese business is still closed'? No.

Just because they're open doesn't mean their output is remotely close to what it was before....which is what is implied by....'back to normal'. Serious

[arcentaur]

Ibtl

[Dougiebaby]

Originally Posted by JRique

If you are in the market for a hot Rolex SS model just sit and wait, I can see SS Daytona, Pepsi and SD trading bellow MSRP in a near future.

The crisis will affect the average person to the business man, the entire economy, even when this resolve the last thing that will recover is the luxury market and so after years we will see the Grey Market to recover, people that are not watch lovers will not be willing to shell thousands on a big purchase, even if they have a good condition now, who knows the future? Cash is king, so save.

One can say that Rolex can simply control the supply, but they can’t just sit and stay one year out of business, and we all know that they artificially control the supply of SS models, nobody wants DJ and PM models.

Thats for a Rolex, which is a brand that has a history of value retention, maybe along with some AP and PP models, but for other brands? The scenario will be even worst.

Richemont shares now are trading at 50% discount so the market is already predicting it, and the manufacturers are the strongest player of this business, lets says the AD’s and Grey Dealers…

I would not be surprised to see by end of year...

Above MSRP - Daytona, Pepsi, Skydweller blue (but only a few grand, for example Pepsis for $13-14K, Daytona black at $14-15K, Daytona white at $16K)

MSRP and above - Batman, Hulk (MSRP or maybe $1-2K more - of course, if Hulk is discontinued then it would go to above category)

MSRP or slightly below - Sub, Sub Date, Seadweller, and Explorer I and II, DJ SS blue dial

Below MSRP - pretty much everything else

*** once the modern pieces hit 5 years old (out of warranty) they will drop considerably vs. same model with warranty

[EndlessEight]

Originally Posted by sallyhats

Not very good at this are we. Rolex’s market is for an AD to sell them, not greys. The greys inventory is watches bought from the AD. There is no inventory sitting at the AD currently, as such the AD is not flooded the grey market it. Following yet?

Yes but the open market is somewhat reflective of realized AD inventory.

There is no lack of inventory for a BLRO or SS Daytona.

If all those flipper sales go away because greys aren’t buying anymore, the first time buyer has a shot at an AD again.

[Webster2281]

Originally Posted by dmash

Lol no

Because in China, Government is final, and if they tell you to stay home, people did it. Majority of China was a ghost town shortly after outbreak, I know this for a fact.

USA? You have clowns having ‘coronavirus parties’ and even STILL hanging out on the beach to this day. That’s why the cases are exploding and are still growing exponentially.

This is one of the very few examples where government having much more control is an incredibly good thing. Can’t fix stupid.

So, they had coronavirus parties in Italy too? Lol. I don’t think so.


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[dmash]

Originally Posted by Webster2281

So, they had coronavirus parties in Italy too? Lol. I don’t think so.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Very weak comparison.

Their case fatality rate is high, our actual confirmed case number is growing at a more exponential/alarming rate than theirs (actually faster than anywhere else in the world and has been for weeks mind you).

Not to mention, your point doesn’t even make sense. The post I quoted, simply compared China’s lessened numbers to the US and I explained why that was so. I was comparing Apples to Oranges, now you’re trying to compare Apples to tangerines...why?

Nice try though

[Jona]

Pure speculation.

[17noir]

There's always a group of people waiting for the "right" time to purchase a Rolex. The truth is they are never going to buy one - just like stocks or housing.

Complaining about over inflated prices, will not pay over retails, once prices is at retail, they will only buy at discount, when they are offered discount, they will wait for deeper discounts. When prices creep back up, they complain about it and swear to buy when it dips. The never ending cycle - might be better off finding another hobby.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by 17noir

There's always a group of people waiting for the "right" time to purchase a Rolex. The truth is they are never going to buy one - just like stocks or housing.

Complaining about over inflated prices, will not pay over retails, once prices is at retail, they will only buy at discount, when they are offered discount, they will wait for deeper discounts. When prices creep back up, they complain about it and swear to buy when it dips. The never ending cycle - might be better off finding another hobby.

I disagree. There’s plenty of people who bought at MSRP (myself included), but refuse to pay exorbitant inflated prices, but will continue to purchase when they once again are at their ‘normal’ price. Trying to stereotype others with this mindset into being cheap is a bit odd.

We should find a new hobby because we patiently wait to not pay above what the actual factory retailer sells something for? I’m sure salesmen love people with your logic

[viswak]

Originally Posted by In-Cog-Neeto

Do I want the prices of luxury items to drop - no - because if they do, it is indicative of a much much wider problem

Do I want everyone to continue doing well and the economy to gain strength - yes - Even if I have to pay a couple grand more for my timepiece - definitely - because it means I will continue to be doing well also

Unfortunately the economy has taken a hit, and in my opinion this effect will be felt for a number of quarters.

Remember what you wish for

Amen. I could not agree more. People need to realize what they wish for. The recession will be so deep, that it will affect everybody.

[Nightdate]

Originally Posted by AK797

There will still be loads of rich and aspiring rich people in the world and social media will still be with us to showcase who has what, and watches like Rolexes will soon acquire even higher status with the vaulting classes, so any fall in prices and demand will probably only be in the short term; this virus - as it currently is - will not change the guts of human nature or desire.

But hits the pocket which is what actually provides the ability to buy

[Yess]

You would have to see unprecedented supply on the SS watches for ADs to start discounting. You would need to have two Subs sitting in a display case before they would consider any discount.... I can't see that happening.

[Nauti]

Another “your watch is now worthless” thread .......ok

[AK797]

Originally Posted by Nightdate

But hits the pocket which is what actually provides the ability to buy

Indeed, in the short term, but govts will be under enormous pressure to ease open up their economies fairly soon combined with mass testing, with then older people having to sacrifice their freedom and stay indoors for many more months, that is how I see this playing out. The economy will soon become the priority in the public opinion. If the virus mutates to killing under 50s at the rate of over 70s then the medics will win the argument and we will all be in lockdown for 6 months plus and yes then we are into depression territory and all bets are off, but with the figures and plateauing we are now seeing in Spain and Italy and Germany that is not looking likely.

[sallyhats]

Originally Posted by Nauti

Another “your watch is now worthless” thread .......ok

I hope this means you won’t be leaving anymore comments on this thread.

[Explorer2polar]

If you are in the market for a hot Rolex SS model just sit and wait, I can see SS Daytona, Pepsi and SD trading bellow MSRP in a near future.

OP: Please lend me your "Special Glasses" that let you look into the future and see Rolex watches being worth diddly squat.

[AJMarcus]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

It's quite obvious this global crisis situation will drop grey prices and increase availability of all models at ADs. The ones arguing against this are emotionally tied into the value of their collection. As unfortunate as this situation is, it will be a great opportunity for some of us collectors to get the pieces we've always wanted at msrp from ADs.

You’re making too much sense for some members. As you said, some are too emotional to see the obvious. Never buy any watch as an investment guys.