I can see SS discounting at 10-20% in a near future.

[JRique]

If you are in the market for a hot Rolex SS model just sit and wait, I can see SS Daytona, Pepsi and SD trading bellow MSRP in a near future.

The crisis will affect the average person to the business man, the entire economy, even when this resolve the last thing that will recover is the luxury market and so after years we will see the Grey Market to recover, people that are not watch lovers will not be willing to shell thousands on a big purchase, even if they have a good condition now, who knows the future? Cash is king, so save.

One can say that Rolex can simply control the supply, but they can’t just sit and stay one year out of business, and we all know that they artificially control the supply of SS models, nobody wants DJ and PM models.

Thats for a Rolex, which is a brand that has a history of value retention, maybe along with some AP and PP models, but for other brands? The scenario will be even worst.

Richemont shares now are trading at 50% discount so the market is already predicting it, and the manufacturers are the strongest player of this business, lets says the AD’s and Grey Dealers…

[Patton250]

Daytonas we’re not selling below MSRP at ADs four years ago when the economy wasn’t that good. Now granted they weren’t $23,000 from the ADs but let’s not get carried away.

[Old Geezer]

Undoubtedly prices will go down but I think the floor for the coveted SS pieces will be MSRP for pieces acquired at ADs. I can see some discounting on DJs and PM pieces.

[Anton911]

Daytona and Pepsi trading below mrsp.I will have some of what you’re drinking
What planet are you on,keep dreaming.

[JRique]

The scenario here is even worst than 2008, all discretionary items will suffer, lets say discretionary luxury items...

Rolex can't just control the demand for hot models anymore, it's over, they will simply stop making DJ and PM models that nobody wants and start shipping the hot models.

But the demand felt, so the AD's in a real bad condition will have to discount to maintain in business.

[Ballzzz]

In 2015/16 I was offered Daytona 1k under no tax so don’t say it can’t happen. I think unfortunately with the current worldwide conditions SS sports can & will be discounted at some point.

[Robf52]

I just don't see that AD's will be discounting the popular SS models. Even with the down stock market portfolios (including yours truly), there will always be sufficient demand for the prime brands..Rolex, PP, AP. I spoke with my AD a few days ago (even though they are closed with a stay-at-home order) and reiterated my interest in a Hulk. I bet that if I dropped my interest that they'd be a line behind me wanting the same watch. I do think we are seeing gray prices come down, but think the AD's will hold to msrp.

[JRique]

Originally Posted by Anton911

Daytona and Pepsi trading below mrsp.I will have some of what you’re drinking
What planet are you on,keep dreaming.

TRF is not a good reference point, of course people were would immediately jump on a Daytona at MSRP, but the real word is kinda different, as I said the limited supply times are gone.

[golfgrouch]

FWIW, there was discounting back in 2009:

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=85429

[Hollie_Rollie]

maybe not Daytona though

[JRique]

Originally Posted by golfgrouch

FWIW, there was discounting back in 2009:

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=85429

From 1 July 2009:

"if you find the right AD they will move on price. I just picked up a new Sub LV today list at $6400, bought at $5000...they even took a credit card, I was shocked. The AD I have bought from over the last 10yrs refused to discount, called another and had this worked out in about an hour...give it a shot, hope you get the same results. make sure you deal with the owner though of possible."

That's what I am saying but in a much larger proportion.

[GGGMT]

Definitely some dumping going on right now. As always, people who should not have been buying these things were buying them in a big big way. Now they want to eat, pay their mortgage, want the kids to go to college, want to car, etc., rather than a watch.


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[nachopc]

Even in 2009 I had to cue for a Daytona, I don’t see Rolex flooding the market with SS models, what for ?


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[Chester01]

We will see how long this lasts. What we know are the AD vaults are opening. Take a look at all the incoming posts recently. Gray market is buying less as there is less demand, so AD’s have more “in the vault” for people that actually like watches. It will depend on each gray and how much cash in had they have to get through the storm, because people will cease buying and the investor crowd that have driven much of these will be running scared out of the watch market. So I can see a premium coming back down to earth, but there will be no fire sales.

[doboy007]

Originally Posted by JRique

If you are in the market for a hot Rolex SS model just sit and wait, I can see SS Daytona, Pepsi and SD trading bellow MSRP in a near future.

The crisis will affect the average person to the business man, the entire economy, even when this resolve the last thing that will recover is the luxury market and so after years we will see the Grey Market to recover, people that are not watch lovers will not be willing to shell thousands on a big purchase, even if they have a good condition now, who knows the future? Cash is king, so save.

One can say that Rolex can simply control the supply, but they can’t just sit and stay one year out of business, and we all know that they artificially control the supply of SS models, nobody wants DJ and PM models.

Thats for a Rolex, which is a brand that has a history of value retention, maybe along with some AP and PP models, but for other brands? The scenario will be even worst.

Richemont shares now are trading at 50% discount so the market is already predicting it, and the manufacturers are the strongest player of this business, lets says the AD’s and Grey Dealers…

Maybe you hit your head somewhere after getting drunk?
Maybe in Brazil or other poor countries, but not for hard to find pieces like Daytona, Pepsi, etc.

[Ny325]

Let’s all hope.

[agsstructures]

I think most of the current hard to find pieces will drop to MSRP

[jaychief]

Might be a bit of movement in price but not much

[brucethemanlee]

i agree with everything except will find it hard to see discounts on BLRO and SS Daytona.

[scurfa]

Rolex will just adjust the market to suit the situation.


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[Goose 104]

I wonder what kind of discount we will see on two tone pieces. Still tempted to pick up a bluesy...

[Roddypeepa]

Originally Posted by Anton911

Daytona and Pepsi trading below mrsp.I will have some of what you’re drinking
What planet are you on,keep dreaming.

Pepsi yes, Daytona nearly. Watch this space.


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[crowatch]

I received 15% off from AD and no tax in 2015 for
Bnib daytona black dial 116520
I wasn’t only one getting those deals
I paid $10,200
Searching back to 2014,2015 in for sale forum
they were going for msrp or less from big sellers
Point is... it happened before and it can happen again
I would not pay over msrp

[kieselguhr]

Sounds great I am not one to look a gift pony in the mouth.

[BillA]

There are a couple of FS posting on this forum, selling since Nov of last year, have not reduced price....I would be happy to provide the knife and fork.

[Ssunnylee24]

What else do you see? You see any stocks that will go up? Let me know

[Xerxes77]

I don’t think that most popular model will be below MRSP but I think will be at MRSP no extra dollar/euro.

I say it and I will say it again, what I want to see and I will see for sure it’s the AD sellers who need to change vocabulary and become kind with client who want to spend his money on a watch.

[Commonproject]

Still funny to see people fall BLRO and Daytona “rare” pieces. The market is flooded with them and no one’s buying

[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by Anton911

Daytona and Pepsi trading below mrsp.I will have some of what you’re drinking
What planet are you on,keep dreaming.

Agreed. ADs won’t discount Pepsi’s and Daytona’s (certainly not in the UK)
yes I know it happened in the past, but if Rolex gets a sniff of ADs discounting their most desirable models, they’ll get the chop/Rolex themselves will further throttle supply.

[carl5]

Hopefully the price should go down so we can afford it after this pandemic..