I can see SS discounting at 10-20% in a near future.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by Todd Turbo S

Daytona’s were still selling well above MSRP during the 08/09 subprime mortgage meltdown. Most analysts think we are going to be in a U-shaped recovery for this recession, so I wouldn’t expect to see Daytonas anywhere near MSRP or stainless steel popular sport models either. Just like a buying opportunity in the stock market, so goes the same concept for previously unattainable popular “anything” that might take a dip in price, hence buying opportunity. Especially for all those who have been wanting SS popular Rolex’s

BTFRD?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[kultschar]

Originally Posted by JRique

Already flooded? The Grey market is flooded, the AD's which has massive operation costs does not have any hot SS models, so that's it.

The ADs had to have been flooded to get to the greys lol

If the greys cant make profit anymore then ADs will soon have a lot of stock

[WatchNutcase]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Why would Rolex increase production to fill a market that’s already flooded?

Maybe because they need to run the business? They have employees to pay as well as expenses, so the watches they sell assist with that

[JRique]

Originally Posted by Todd Turbo S

Daytona’s were still selling well above MSRP during the 08/09 subprime mortgage meltdown. Most analysts think we are going to be in a U-shaped recovery for this recession, so I wouldn’t expect to see Daytonas anywhere near MSRP or stainless steel popular sport models either. Just like a buying opportunity in the stock market, so goes the same concept for previously unattainable popular “anything” that might take a dip in price, hence buying opportunity. Especially for all those who have been wanting SS popular Rolex’s

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=85429

U-Shaped recovery for the economy, the real world, the discretionary luxury market may see a very different type of recovery.

[Brew]

Trading? Which exchange do you "trade" these hot commodities on?

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by sallyhats

It’s from the people that bought from greys at stupid inflationary prices or they purchased at MSRP but bought a bundle. Som people are stuck in the denial stage. Everyone is still touting this imaginary thing called DEMAND wake up People there was never any demand, its not real. The faster you can come to grips with this, the easier it will be to move on. No one is special because you got a SS sports watch in the last 2 years.

I think the sales numbers prove there is demand. Did you sell $5B of something just last year?

I don't disagree that things will become more available but saying there never was demand for SS Rolex is pretty silly.

[AJMarcus]

Originally Posted by sallyhats

Not very good at this are we. Rolex’s market is for an AD to sell them, not greys. The greys inventory is watches bought from the AD. There is no inventory sitting at the AD currently, as such the AD is not flooded the grey market it. Following yet?

Well said, sir. Seems simple to me

[AJMarcus]

Originally Posted by kultschar

The ADs had to have been flooded to get to the greys lol

If the greys cant make profit anymore then ADs will soon have a lot of stock

This makes absolutely no sense.

[JRique]

Originally Posted by kultschar

The ADs had to have been flooded to get to the greys lol

If the greys cant make profit anymore then ADs will soon have a lot of stock

Yes, as now the demand has plunged the prices will simply go down when they receive the stock.

And I say the real world demand, not the watch lovers demand.

[Mr. Miami]

I’m still in my quest for a PM model so maybe I’ll get a discount. As for SS, I think floor will be MSRP as others have stated. I’d be shocked if it went below that.

[sallyhats]

Originally Posted by EEpro

I think the sales numbers prove there is demand. Did you sell $5B of something just last year?

I don't disagree that things will become more available but saying there never was demand for SS Rolex is pretty silly.

You consider people buying a product just to sell it for a quick flip real demand? Demand is someone buying a product and actually using. There’s a reason why Rolex didn’t bump up production, for this purpose exactly, they knew this fad would come to an end. Look at the grey market, there are thousands of brand new watches. That’s not demand.

[kultschar]

Originally Posted by AJMarcus

This makes absolutely no sense.

A flood of new stock was constantly arriving in greys over last few years! The models are everywhere and easy to buy from the greys in huge supply. Obviously coming from ADs directly and indirectly.

There has been no shortage from Rolex - its just been going to the Greys in large quantities via flippers and AD backdoors.

If the Greys and flippers in the near future cant make profit the ADs will eventually have stock again for peasants like me :)

[WatchNutcase]

Originally Posted by kultschar

A flood of new stock was constantly arriving in greys over last few years! Obviously coming from ADs directly and indirectly.

There has been no shortage from Rolex - its just been going to the Greys via flippers and AD backdoors.

If the Greys and flippers in the near future cant make profit the ADs will eventually have stock again for peasants like me :)

It's quite obvious this global crisis situation will drop grey prices and increase availability of all models at ADs. The ones arguing against this are emotionally tied into the value of their collection. As unfortunate as this situation is, it will be a great opportunity for some of us collectors to get the pieces we've always wanted at msrp from ADs.

[JRique]

Originally Posted by sallyhats

You consider people buying a product just to sell it for a quick flip real demand? Demand is someone buying a product and actually using. There’s a reason why Rolex didn’t bump up production, for this purpose exactly, they knew this fad would come to an end. Look at the grey market, there are thousands of brand new watches. That’s not demand.

Exactly, but Rolex artificially controlled the supply of hot models too, it makes their products even more desirable and the brand stronger.

The average consumer would go to an AD and buy a DJ or a PM model because they don't have a Pepsi, so made sense to them to make this adjust. But this got completely out of control, we can't even find a Sub in stock,

People would simply buy a $12k watch thinking it is no brainer because they were selling for $23k online, that is over.

[Bigblu10]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Why would Rolex increase production to fill a market that’s already flooded?

Right now there is no production, and nobody knows when it starts up again. And with millions in the US losing jobs and many small business owners on the brink of extinction, the whole supply vs. demand ratio is changing as we type.

[JRique]

Most of big AD's here receive like 1 Daytona each month, and they can't even choose the dial color, for a DJ or a PM model you can walk in and just make a custom order to Rolex,

Good luck selling that WG Sub right now.

[fsprow]

Let's remember the Rolex factories are shut down - zero new supply - probably until we go over the "hump" in Covid cases and deaths come down as is now happening in Italy and Spain and perhaps New York. At the same time, other businesses will come back and jobs with them. My belief is that people will rather quickly them return to old habits of buying.

But all is speculation at this point. I've never thought of watches as an investment, anyway./

[kultschar]

Wonder how many ADs will unfortunately go under

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Bigblu10

Right now there is no production, and nobody knows when it starts up again. And with millions in the US losing jobs and many small business owners on the brink of extinction, the whole supply vs. demand ratio is changing as we type.

Excellent point. However sooner or later and hopefully sooner Rolex will start back up again and start making watches again. When that happens they are not going to flood the market and make the prices come down. They are a privately run business as you all know and don’t have shareholders to answer to so they can do whatever they want.

People I hope you guys can get the hot piece that MSRP just like I did. I have never paid a dime over retail for anything. In fact before the economy got hot, because of the area I live in I was able to get a few hot pieces at a little below MSRP. NOT the Daytona. If the economy does continue to go into the tank and stays there, some of you in some areas, not around incredibly busy AD’s in high populated areas, will be able to get Rolex at or below MSRP. But I don’t care how bad the economy gets you won’t get a Daytona, Blue Sky D, Pepsi, Hulk or Green RG Daytona below MSRP. I don’t see why you wouldn’t be able to get the other models below MSRP. Demand with a bad economy will definitely drop off but I’m sure Rolex production will match that demand to not let prices to fall.

[Ensign]

I have to agree with you.

A lot depends on how the economic impact of Covid 19 compares to other financial crises. How much of the global economy is shut down? 20%, 40%, more? It seems like only “essential” industries such as food, medical care, and infrastructure are functioning. Can the airlines, retail, real estate, banking, hospitality, restaurants, et al weather this economic storm? Some had one foot in the grave to start with. How will the stimulus packages affect inflation and future tax rates?

Is the current crisis worse than the Financial Crisis of 2007? Black Monday 1987? 1929?

If Monday morning everyone goes back to work and pays their mortgages, eats out, and buys those summer holiday plane tickets, then the economy may recover to some extent. But what if this continues a few more months? Are people ever going to live their lives like they did pre C19?

Rolex recently requested permission to partially reopen their factory for “economic health.” Some have interpreted this as getting some pieces ready to ship out the door. Why would they do this if it wasn’t an economic necessity?

The pool of buyers is drying up quick. Those with the funds are looking for better investments. Some even find it distasteful to buy a luxury watch in such an economic climate. I’m certainly not buying another watch for the next few months until I see how the economy looks. At his time, a Panda, Pepsi, or Hulk at retail doesn’t interest me in the least.

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by scurfa

Rolex will just adjust the market to suit the situation.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Easier said than done when you make a million watches a year.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Xtralarg]

Originally Posted by Ensign

I have to agree with you.

A lot depends on how the economic impact of Covid 19 compares to other financial crises. How much of the global economy is shut down? 20%, 40%, more? It seems like only “essential” industries such as food, medical care, and infrastructure are functioning. Can the airlines, retail, real estate, banking, hospitality, restaurants, et al weather this economic storm? Some had one foot in the grave to start with. How will the stimulus packages affect inflation and future tax rates?

Is the current crisis worse than the Financial Crisis of 2007? Black Monday 1987? 1929?

If Monday morning everyone goes back to work and pays their mortgages, eats out, and buys those summer holiday plane tickets, then the economy may recover to some extent. But what if this continues a few more months? Are people ever going to live their lives like they did pre C19?

Rolex recently requested permission to partially reopen their factory for “economic health.” Some have interpreted this as getting some pieces ready to ship out the door. Why would they do this if it wasn’t an economic necessity?

The pool of buyers is drying up quick. Those with the funds are looking for better investments. Some even find it distasteful to buy a luxury watch in such an economic climate. I’m certainly not buying another watch for the next few months until I see how the economy looks. At his time, a Panda, Pepsi, or Hulk at retail doesn’t interest me in the least.

Well said

[Commonproject]

Originally Posted by The Argonaut

Easier said than done when you make a million watches a year.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah people also need to realize that Rolex does not give two shits about dealers/greys.

[Reign]

Peoples savings are starting to get depleted due to lay-offs or getting furloughed. Company liquidity is getting used up. If you’re fortunate enough to not get your salary hit, you’re probably building up that rainy day fund.

At the end of the day, people say watches aren’t investments but I’m certain a ton of people bought them knowing they could flip them for an immediate 40-100% gain. With the stock market where they are and watch prices diminishing, if you have the resources to buy a luxury watch, then you know damn well that your +$10k is better spent on the stock market.

Give it time, prices will correct - the situation isn’t gonna improve for awhile

[JRique]

Originally Posted by Ensign

I have to agree with you.

A lot depends on how the economic impact of Covid 19 compares to other financial crises. How much of the global economy is shut down? 20%, 40%, more? It seems like only “essential” industries such as food, medical care, and infrastructure are functioning. Can the airlines, retail, real estate, banking, hospitality, restaurants, et al weather this economic storm? Some had one foot in the grave to start with. How will the stimulus packages affect inflation and future tax rates?

Is the current crisis worse than the Financial Crisis of 2007? Black Monday 1987? 1929?

If Monday morning everyone goes back to work and pays their mortgages, eats out, and buys those summer holiday plane tickets, then the economy may recover to some extent. But what if this continues a few more months? Are people ever going to live their lives like they did pre C19?

Rolex recently requested permission to partially reopen their factory for “economic health.” Some have interpreted this as getting some pieces ready to ship out the door. Why would they do this if it wasn’t an economic necessity?

The pool of buyers is drying up quick. Those with the funds are looking for better investments. Some even find it distasteful to buy a luxury watch in such an economic climate. I’m certainly not buying another watch for the next few months until I see how the economy looks. At his time, a Panda, Pepsi, or Hulk at retail doesn’t interest me in the least.

Well said, many people will not be buying a luxury item soon in this economic climate, even having the funds.

If one think prices will not go down and everything will be good soon there are some luxury brands that the stocks are down 50-60%, buy now and soon you will double your money.

[Nikrnic]

Hmm.. things flip flopped pretty quickly on supply and demand. No one is buying or seeing much daylight right now enough to change that so all prices will fall percentage wise on all luxury goods. The 5k a yr. country club near me has a special now to join for 1k. I'm sitting tight like many right now especially after dropping well over 20k on a few pieces this quarter, with no regrets I might add. We'll see.. Cheers and good health to all...

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by thomaspp

PM will be back to 30% off


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I could see that before SS professional discounts

[Rexplorer214270]

Originally Posted by sallyhats

It’s from the people that bought from greys at stupid inflationary prices or they purchased at MSRP but bought a bundle. Som people are stuck in the denial stage. Everyone is still touting this imaginary thing called DEMAND wake up People there was never any demand, its not real. The faster you can come to grips with this, the easier it will be to move on. No one is special because you got a SS sports watch in the last 2 years.

What would you call it if it wasn’t demand?

[GMT Aviator]

I honestly don’t think the Rolex factory closure is going to have any perceivable effect on supply, and whilst they may throttle back production on some models, that’s just business sense when no one is buying so you don’t create a glut in the supply chain.
At the end of this month, Rolex will be releasing a raft of new models, some hot, some not.
I suspect AD’s will be looking to please their regular clients in the coming weeks and months rather than selling to greys out the back door, because what will happen here is greys will be back to where they were a few years ago, buying DJ’s the AD can’t easily shift and selling them for less than MSRP. The AD’s will keep the hot watches for themselves to entice buyers back and hope they can make a few more big ticket sales from those individuals over the year.
My AD has already spoken to me to see if I’m ready to buy now regarding a hot watch I’m on the waitlist for. Last month I was still estimated to be a good 8 months away from getting the call for the same watch, so the landscape is already changing.
The way I see it, anyone who bought the hype and paid top dollar is going to take a bath which is only a problem if they sell. I can’t see Greys holding stock and hoping to keep the market buoyant. Despite what they may think, no amount of price fixing is going to determine the market value of these watches, that is completely out of their control. The market will decide that for them. Best thing they could do now is have a controlled reduction of stock by discounting in a phased climb down out of the artificial bubble created by themselves and social media driven hysteria regarding ownership of these things.
Prices are coming down people, availability is going to go up if you’re still in the market for buying after this global pandemic is over and the curtain is coming down on the overinflated hype that has driven this insanity for the last couple of years.
And not before time.

[Rexplorer214270]

Originally Posted by GMT Aviator

I honestly don’t think the Rolex factory closure is going to have any perceivable effect on supply, and whilst they may throttle back production on some models, that’s just business sense when no one is buying so you don’t create a glut in the supply chain.
At the end of this month, Rolex will be releasing a raft of new models, some hot, some not.
I suspect AD’s will be looking to please their regular clients in the coming weeks and months rather than selling to greys out the back door, because what will happen here is greys will be back to where they were a few years ago, buying DJ’s the AD can’t easily shift and selling them for less than MSRP. The AD’s will keep the hot watches for themselves to entice buyers back and hope they can make a few more big ticket sales from those individuals over the year.
My AD has already spoken to me to see if I’m ready to buy now regarding a hot watch I’m on the waitlist for. Last month I was still estimated to be a good 8 months away from getting the call for the same watch, so the landscape is already changing.
The way I see it, anyone who bought the hype and paid top dollar is going to take a bath which is only a problem if they sell. I can’t see Greys holding stock and hoping to keep the market buoyant. Despite what they may think, no amount of price fixing is going to determine the market value of these watches, that is completely out of their control. The market will decide that for them. Best thing they could do now is have a controlled reduction of stock by discounting in a phased climb down out of the artificial bubble created by themselves and social media driven hysteria regarding ownership of these things.
Prices are coming down people, availability is going to go up if you’re still in the market for buying after this global pandemic is over and the curtain is coming down on the overinflated hype that has driven this insanity for the last couple of years.
And not before time.

If hopefully things are some what back to normal come May-June, will you see Pepsis, Sub, Sub Date, Batmans, Explorers, basically the SS pieces in the AD’s display case?