Will their be a time when SS sport watches

[Mr. Miami]

Come down back to MSRP? or will it stay that way for some time?

[Dj_masse]

Originally Posted by Mr. Miami

Come down back to MSRP? or will it stay that way for some time?

Let me dust off my crystal ball....


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[Mr. Miami]

Originally Posted by Dj_masse

Let me dust off my crystal ball....


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sounds good

[BigAppleBill]

All they need to do is double production. Then there would be so many that nobody would want one and there would be an aftermarket surplus. Supply vs. Demand. Problem solved.

[tigey]

Ask Ms Cleo!

[Nikrnic]

Yes.. your still on the wait list for a Submariner. Call back in a year...

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[Russell996]

Originally Posted by BigAppleBill

All they need to do is double production. Then there would be so many that nobody would want one and there would be an aftermarket surplus. Supply vs. Demand. Problem solved.

There’s already a lot being made, it will swing round at some point.

[dchang81]

With the 116520 the hype was never this bad but it settled down to dealers having stock in the case, even getting (very) small discounts. But the “craze” then was a few k over sticker and not much more. I’m sure they’re going to keep the birkin bag sales model going as long as they can.

[Mr. Miami]

I mean the premiums don’t really bother me as at this point i only want one of the SS sport models which have been documented. but if i wanted a few of them, then that would start to bother me. it’s just so interesting to me.

[JR16]

This guy knows


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[henrylee]

I hope in the near future it does, but the greys probably don’t want this

[Hafez]

I think the threat title should be. Will there be a time where a 5990, 15407ST or a SS exceeds the price of a Patek grand complications soon? My answer is definitely yes. As we are already seeing both above the 100K USD mark . What about the rest of the members?

Russel 996 our expert ?:)


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[RussW]

If demand is still high by the time we’re out of this pandemic then I think prices will remain high for the next 5+ years. When the 5167 and 5711 are discontinued (it will happen) prices will be propelled even higher.

[Mr. Miami]

Originally Posted by RussW

If demand is still high by the time we’re out of this pandemic then I think prices will remain high for the next 5+ years. When the 5167 and 5711 are discontinued (it will happen) prices will be propelled even higher.

well hopefully they don’t discontinue the 5167a in the next few months so i can snatch one up gray.

[Mr. Miami]

Originally Posted by Hafez

I think the threat title should be. Will there be a time where a 5990, 15407ST or a SS exceeds the price of a Patek grand complications soon? My answer is definitely yes. As we are already seeing both above the 100K USD mark . What about the rest of the members?

Russel 996 our expert ?:)


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yes what does Russel 996 think ?

[Hafez]

Am just back from Dubai. Had a meeting and long chat with the biggest grey dealer there.

First, insane stock.

Second, he sells the 5990 for 105k USD and the 15407st for around 110k usd and quite sure they will reach the 130 k USD mark by January, he sees that the grand complications are watches left for real watch collectors with financial abilities as the SS are now a game that even the manufacturer plays.

[cascavel]

They will never come back to MSRP. Too much money in the hands of the wealthy and always more where that came from. PM watches rising in price in the draft of the rise in SS watches. Independents rising in the draft of Patek, Rolex and AP. It is a cyclone of rising prices for luxury goods where production is limited and cannot be ramped up rapidly.

[2nastie]

The only time they will be go back to MSRP is if watch brands raise their MSRP to current market/grey values (I know other implications apply... but you get the jest of it) ... or if the entire world economy tanks to unprecedented levels where even the wealthy can "barely" to afford their basic necessity.

... so the answer is: no. Highly unlikely.

Wealth is abundant right now and money is quite cheap and easy to borrow even for those who can't afford it or shouldn't spend. Add in the fact that certain industries like tech is evolving on a day to day basis... wealth is literally created out of nothing.

Current "fashion" and global movement is towards a casual attire which puts more emphasis on sporty or casual things. With Patek in particular there are literally only 2 main watch lines to choose from.

[sambb]

i think they will come way down when there is a disruptive force, like the initial quartz revolution,, or when smartphones just came out in 2007 or so. there will be some other disruptive force that causes them (and perhaps all watches) to fall out of favor. But predicting a disruptive event isnt possible. Who knows when it will happen. Several brands will go out of business, and new industries will form.

[Mr. Miami]

Originally Posted by 2nastie

The only time they will be go back to MSRP is if watch brands raise their MSRP to current market/grey values (I know other implications apply... but you get the jest of it) ... or if the entire world economy tanks to unprecedented levels where even the wealthy can "barely" to afford their basic necessity.

... so the answer is: no. Highly unlikely.

Wealth is abundant right now and money is quite cheap and easy to borrow even for those who can't afford it or shouldn't spend. Add in the fact that certain industries like tech is evolving on a day to day basis... wealth is literally created out of nothing.

Current "fashion" and global movement is towards a casual attire which puts more emphasis on sporty or casual things. With Patek in particular there are literally only 2 main watch lines to choose from.

that’s a very good point and i agree with it. so with that being said you either wait it out at AD for the “waitlist” or you pay market price. Let’s hope the world economy does not tank!

[fsprow]

Patek production is down 30%. Demand for SS models is extremely high. They say SS production will not be increased. I believe this answers the question for the near and medium terms.

[Emery]

By the time it comes back down to MSRP, you won't want it anymore.

[Mr. Miami]

Originally Posted by Emery

By the time it comes back down to MSRP, you won't want it anymore.

to be fair, when i first discovered patek and saw aqua i had no clue about waitlist premiums etc. so at least for me, I would still want it. i think the people who only want it for the wrong reasons wouldn’t want it.

[GreenLantern]

The main reason why it won't come down is not all the rich people out there.

It's the hoarders out there.

When I see stuff like this: https://www.instagram.com/p/CHtpBvmAIRW/

I don't see how anyone can say supply & demand.

[GreenLantern]

Supply & demand: https://www.instagram.com/p/CHlCi9HAsnF/

[GreenLantern]

Supply: https://www.instagram.com/p/CHUH8JAgQNn/

[Ichiran]

I hope so. I find it super difficult to get Nautilus from AD.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by Emery

By the time it comes back down to MSRP, you won't want it anymore.

You're probably in the wrong place for comments like that.

I have to believe many of the regular posters here are in it for the timepiece itself, not because it's "hot" or it's "selling above MSRP."

But hey, I can only speak for myself, so what do I know.

[DoraTheExplorerII]

Perhaps when counterfeiters really start investing in their production so that it is difficult for watchmakers to know if a watch is genuine even after opening it up or looking at the fake papers, and they start flooding the world with them.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by DoraTheExplorerII

Perhaps when counterfeiters really start investing in their production so that it is difficult for watchmakers to know if a watch is genuine even after opening it up or looking at the fake papers, and they start flooding the world with them.

We're already there.

Some of the $500 counterfeits are so good that your above-average watch buyer can't tell the difference.