Waitlists and Discontinuations

[brockburst]

Are waitlists really closed everywhere for 5711 and 5712? I assume wait times vary by relationship, AD and luck?

Do we think the Nautilus 5711 and 5712 will be discontinued any time soon? Is there an average 'lifecycle' for a patek?

Not intended to be a troll thread, see lots of various comments across topic threads but haven't seen one in once place.

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by brockburst

Are waitlists really closed everywhere for 5711 and 5712? I assume wait times vary by relationship, AD and luck?

Do we think the Nautilus 5711 and 5712 will be discontinued any time soon? Is there an average 'lifecycle' for a patek?

Not intended to be a troll thread, see lots of various comments across topic threads but haven't seen one in once place.

The lists are not closed because they don't really exist - at least not in the way a list would normally work with the first to ask being the first to receive.
If you are asking is it possible to order a 5711 or 5712, unfortunately that will simply depend on your AD relationship.
I doubt they are about to be discontinued, the 5711 has just had it's movement updated to the latest hacking version.

[brockburst]

Originally Posted by Russell996

The lists are not closed because they don't really exist.
If you are asking is it possible to order a 5711 or 5712, unfortunately that will simply depend on your AD relationship.
I doubt they are about to be discontinued, the 5711 has just had it's movement updated to the latest hacking version.

I have a 5712 and was just speaking to a couple friends about the experience to finally get one. Conversation included us wondering how things decide to be discontinued and how the waitlists actually work. Of course I would imagine every waitlist is different depending on a variable host of factors.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by brockburst

Are waitlists really closed everywhere for 5711 and 5712? I assume wait times vary by relationship, AD and luck?

Do we think the Nautilus 5711 and 5712 will be discontinued any time soon? Is there an average 'lifecycle' for a patek?

Not intended to be a troll thread, see lots of various comments across topic threads but haven't seen one in once place.

Not sure how anyone could know what is happening "everywhere"?

No idea what Patek will do with their models, nor do I ever even think about it.

[Ichiran]

I will try to ask Theirry on the 26th Sep when he is discontinuing my 5711 and 5712, after a few rounds of red.

[bonsai-man]

From my experience, the waiting list dies with the old model. If a new replacement model is released, VIP’s do not need to apply and are automatically added to the top of the new list and everyone else usually has to reapply.

Usually after VIP’s, the customer with best history always trump those with less history regardless of how.quick you got your name down or even when you applied. The final stage seems to be a random allocation if you happen to be in store or to no history customers usually in order of the most recent enquiry.

That’s why many forum members like me keep recommending buyers with no history should put your name down AND keep popping in the store guys,

This post was much longer than I intended but hopefully it of use to someone.

[ragsk]

Originally Posted by bonsai-man

From my experience, the waiting list dies with the old model. If a new replacement model is released, VIP’s do not need to apply and are automatically added to the top of the new list and everyone else usually has to reapply.

Usually after VIP’s, the customer with best history always trump those with less history regardless of how.quick you got your name down or even when you applied. The final stage seems to be a random allocation if you happen to be in store or to no history customers usually in order of the most recent enquiry.

That’s why many forum members like me keep recommending buyers with no history should put your name down AND keep popping in the store guys,

This post was much longer than I intended but hopefully it of use to someone.

Not always. My AD just transfers the list in certain circumstances. The blue 5726 for example.

[bonsai-man]

Originally Posted by ragsk

Not always. My AD just transfers the list in certain circumstances. The blue 5726 for example.

Sorry everyone I was broadly speaking and do not have personal experience from every brands AD in the whole world, but do stand corrected. Exactly this can happen as well, there are no fixed rules, and all AD’s are different :thumbs-up

Also sorry for the spelling and grammar and all the revisions.

Arghh, I can’t believe I need to add this.

[Vetracer]

I don’t think the revision of the 5711 movement is an indication that the reference won’t soon be discontinued. They could simply use the movement for the Aquanaut. Conversely they could discontinue the 5167 soon possibly with the introduction of a black/ slate dial 5168G.

[ragsk]

Originally Posted by bonsai-man

Sorry everyone I was broadly speaking and do not have personal experience from every brands AD in the whole world, but do stand corrected. Exactly this can happen as well, there are no fixed rules, and all AD’s are different :thumbs-up

Also sorry for the spelling and grammar and all the revisions.

Arghh, I can’t believe I need to add this.

Lol all is cool bonsai man

[bonsai-man]

Originally Posted by ragsk

Lol all is cool bonsai man

[RussW]

Originally Posted by brockburst

Are waitlists really closed everywhere for 5711 and 5712? I assume wait times vary by relationship, AD and luck?

Do we think the Nautilus 5711 and 5712 will be discontinued any time soon? Is there an average 'lifecycle' for a patek?

Not intended to be a troll thread, see lots of various comments across topic threads but haven't seen one in once place.

These are good questions. If you believe Watchclub then worldwide waiting lists are closed for all Nautilus models. The reality is that you can still get any Nautilus, but you have to be a very good customer, do a bundle with other watches / jewellery, or get lucky.

As for being discontinued, yes there is an average lifecycle of about 7 years (see here: http://forums.timezone.com/index.php...89#msg_7449188). However, the Nautilus is over 40 years old and I don’t see the line being discontinued, more likely the 5711 / 5712 will be retired and replaced with a different reference.

Interestingly in the link above Thierry talks about the 5711 getting a new movement and that’s what’s happened recently. The new movement also doesn’t guarantee the 5711 won’t be discontinued - the 3712 was produced for 1 year only, so anything can happen.

Be patient, try and build a relationship with an AD and you might get lucky. Also, who knows how long this market will last - it hasn’t always been this difficult to get a Nautilus.

[liljctl]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I will try to ask Theirry on the 26th Sep when he is discontinuing my 5711 and 5712, after a few rounds of red.

See you in Singapore

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[ct.matt]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I will try to ask Theirry on the 26th Sep when he is discontinuing my 5711 and 5712, after a few rounds of red.

Ask him to discontinue the 5164A while you're at it por favore

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by liljctl

See you in Singapore

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

See you. I'm sure it will be a great night

Originally Posted by ct.matt

Ask him to discontinue the 5164A while you're at it por favore

[Bearxj86]

I think we all have to accept the fact the list is just a bunch of people that want it. However it has become apparent to me that pretty much all Patek ADs also sell to grey these days especially given the fantastic margins. I will take a quick stab at my estimates:

1) I venture a guess that 35-40% of all Patek Aquanauts and Nautilus go to Grey that buy in bulk or multiple watches from Patek or other brands carried by the AD. This might be as high as 50%.

2) The second 25-35% will go to the Whale customers including new Whales. Buy a grand complication and we'll put you on the list. My sources at my AD tells me that you may have to spend around $300k to get A shot for a Nautilus or the new Aquanaut within 12 months.

3) The third 25-35% are recurring customers that have a long relationship and have bought over time. To keep them happy, they maybe get 1 piece a year or 1 piece every 2 years. I am probably in this camp.

4) Last 10-15% are for new customers that pass the smell test. You might need to qualify as a mini-whale or potential whale.

If its a smaller Patek AD you may have a better chance.

[toucan]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Not sure how anyone could know what is happening "everywhere"?

No idea what Patek will do with their models, nor do I ever even think about it.

Really constructive as always!

[GreenLantern]

What's sad is when you're waiting and a model is actually discontinued.

For example, the 5726 White dial. :(

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by RussW

Also, who knows how long this market will last - it hasn’t always been this difficult to get a Nautilus.

Indeed. Remember, it only started getting stupid like this in 2017.

Prior to 2017, it wasn't uncommon (not common, but also not rare) to see some sitting in ADs.

[ap1]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I will try to ask Theirry on the 26th Sep when he is discontinuing my 5711 and 5712, after a few rounds of red.

[orandoyle]

To me 5711 is a watch that every one wants, no body can get but every one seem to have

[cascavel]

All of the press that Patek gets outside of Watch hobby mags and blogs centers on the 5711. Cancelling the 5711 would be the equivalent of going "radio silent" for Patek. Patek would be pushed back to the Dark Void now occupied by Vacheron, Jaeger and other respectable watch makers who don't have a signature product.
Why would Patek commit business suicide?

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by brockburst

I have a 5712 and was just speaking to a couple friends about the experience to finally get one. Conversation included us wondering how things decide to be discontinued and how the waitlists actually work. Of course I would imagine every waitlist is different depending on a variable host of factors.

If you have a 5712, how did you get yours?

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

However it has become apparent to me that pretty much all Patek ADs also sell to grey these days especially given the fantastic margins. I will take a quick stab at my estimates:

1) I venture a guess that 35-40% of all Patek Aquanauts and Nautilus go to Grey that buy in bulk or multiple watches from Patek or other brands carried by the AD. This might be as high as 50%.

I disagree with this thought process 100% (I am in the UK), simply don’t believe an AD will risk losing PP. Aside from a rogue AD employee who would immediately be sacked it is greedy customers who instantly flip to greys.

[bonsai-man]

Originally Posted by Russell996

I disagree with this thought process 100% (I am in the UK), simply don’t believe an AD will risk losing PP. Aside from a rogue AD employee who would immediately be sacked it is greedy customers who instantly flip to greys.

This.

[AK797]

These and most hot pieces are really reward pieces now so question is, what have you done for the AD lately?

[Fat_ninja]

I’m waiting for a waitlist for discontinued thread

[AK797]

Originally Posted by ap1

Yeah, he's missed his chance, that was in 15/16 when he was already unhappy with the 5711's synonymity with the brand but it was selling at retail so could be cut, 5712 was nowhere ofc, but now that it brings in so much attention to the brand and largely is the brand now it has to stay, even if just in limited production. It would be like Rolex finishing the Daytona.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by AK797

These and most hot pieces are really reward pieces now so question is, what have you done for the AD lately?

I can’t put pictures like that on TRF. Might get banned

[AK797]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I can’t put pictures like that on TRF. Might get banned

Used to be ADs would follow me home, force their cards into my pockets, but now suddenly I'm the stalker and have to declare my occupation and university degree.