Goodbye 5711, but will prices go up or down?

[ragsk]

Yes its gone. My AD confirmed it to me. They have received confirmation from Patek.

[Rrpdc]

Im sure a new SS blue dial Nautilus will be announced soon by PAtek with better clasp/adjustability and updated movement.

[chmhill]

if this is true, will the price of the blue dial 5711 drop ?

Originally Posted by Rrpdc

Im sure a new SS blue dial Nautilus will be announced soon by PAtek with better clasp/adjustability and updated movement.

[Andybethel]

I personally think the 5711 price will drop. Purely my opinion, but I feel like the buyer profile of current 5711-010 is someone that wants the latest and greatest watch. True collectors aren’t getting them due to grey markets gobbling them up and inflating the price. It’s the consumer mentality of millennials and Gen z, or whichever Gen we’re on now. Will be interesting to see. Also, in all honestly I wasn’t a fan of the clasp on the 5711 or the 5712. I have the 5712 and the clasp is a little dated looking when measured up against the glide-lock on Rolex.


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[LJubel328]

Originally Posted by Andybethel

I personally think the 5711 price will drop. Purely my opinion, but I feel like the buyer profile of current 5711-010 is someone that wants the latest and greatest watch. True collectors aren’t getting them due to grey markets gobbling them up and inflating the price. It’s the consumer mentality of millennials and Gen z, or whichever Gen we’re on now. Will be interesting to see. Also, in all honestly I wasn’t a fan of the clasp on the 5711 or the 5712. I have the 5712 and the clasp is a little dated looking when measured up against the glide-lock on Rolex.


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5711 the greatest watch? Some many other references that are way better. If only millennials and gen z would appreciate more than just hype. Then again I’m a millennial, maybe there are more out there like me

[Andybethel]

Perhaps my badge of generic social casting is a little unfair. But I’d certainty push the point that consumerism and “latest and greatest” is the driving force behind many purchases today; which is sad. Having the “untrainable” is also an inverse marketing tactic that works wonders increase brand equity. The concept of paying over MSRP for a number of things is ridiculous as it’s core.


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[SL BRABUS]

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthre...=784162&page=2

Like what I say..^^^.. Recap on the other thread....^^^... starting post 37....^^^....

[soundserious]

Look at the prices of other discontinued steel sport Patek for the answer. Not even Nautilus mind you, look at the prices of discontinued Aquanauts. The number of sellers will become even fewer. All these watches, especially the blue ones are squirreled away already.

[azizu]

the 6711 will be unobtainable just like the 5711 was, so i don't expect prices to go down anytime soon.
but for offers to raise from 70K to 120K overnight is really insane!!!

[Jfo122]

I think i'll pick up an "old" 5711 for a lower price if it gets discontinued.

IMO, I think signs would suggest, the watch's value won't change. In fact it is more likely to go up. No previous Nautilus value has decreased for the past couple years. I doubt that's going to change now.

[fsprow]

A reseller friend of mine in Dubai said he just sold an unworn 5711 for $95,000 (cash). One sale doesn’t make a market. Maybe a knee jerk reaction to discontinuance. Mine is staying put.

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by Russell996

Prices will go down when all those holding the piece as an investment realise the piece has reached the top of the market and now is the time to take the profit before the market drops. At a conservative estimate there are probably 20,000 SS 5711's in the wild, given the recent market I would estimate more than half of those that have purchased in the last 5 years have done so to make money - surely no-one can think at the current used price that the 5711 is a sensible buy? Now the watch market is a strange place and there is so much inter dealer purchasing going on that prices can move up without any change to actual demand, in the same way they can drop back very quickly when the dealers realise the new high water mark that they falsely set doesn't represent the real market demand.

I estimate only 9,000 blue 5711 were ever produced by Patek.

Here is my maths - 15 years, 400 ADs, and each AD only receives 1 or 2 blue 5711 per year (some don't even see 1 piece a year). 15 x 400 x 1.5 = 9,000.

That said, 9,000 is still a large number. However, I reckon there are far greater demand for the 9,000 blue 5711. And out of the 9,000 owners out there, not all are flippers and they keep their 5711 in their collection for life (reducing the supply pool further), like me. I can only see 1 direction for future 5711 price.

[ragsk]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I estimate only 9,000 blue 5711 were ever produced by Patek.

Here is my maths - 15 years, 400 ADs, and each AD only receives 1 or 2 blue 5711 per year (some don't even see 1 piece a year). 15 x 400 x 1.5 = 9,000.

That said, 9,000 is still a large number. However, I reckon there are far greater demand for the 9,000 blue 5711. And out of the 9,000 owners out there, not all are flippers and they keep their 5711 in their collection for life (reducing the supply pool further), like me. I can only see 1 direction for future 5711 price.

Yes I agree with this. They may be short term spikes (like now) or troughs but ultimately this will continue to rise over the long term.

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I estimate only 9,000 blue 5711 were ever produced by Patek.

Here is my maths - 15 years, 400 ADs, and each AD only receives 1 or 2 blue 5711 per year (some don't even see 1 piece a year). 15 x 400 x 1.5 = 9,000.

That said, 9,000 is still a large number. However, I reckon there are far greater demand for the 9,000 blue 5711. And out of the 9,000 owners out there, not all are flippers and they keep their 5711 in their collection for life (reducing the supply pool further), like me. I can only see 1 direction for future 5711 price.

I think your numbers per AD are low but who knows, only Patek and they’re not telling.

[ragsk]

To be honest, Im more interested in the new Calatrava rather than the 6711 or whatever the new one will be called.

[IBDOC]

Originally Posted by ragsk

Yes I agree with this. They may be short term spikes (like now) or troughs but ultimately this will continue to rise over the long term.

That’s impossible to predict. Doesn’t matter if something is scarce or not. Ref 5100 and Franck Mullers were the hottest sh*t around in the early 2000s and look what happened to those. Trends change, and demand for a specific watch doesn’t just revolve around its current market price.

[ragsk]

Originally Posted by IBDOC

That’s impossible to predict. Doesn’t matter if something is scarce or not. Ref 5100 and Franck Mullers were the hottest sh*t around in the early 2000s and look what happened to those. Trends change, and demand for a specific watch doesn’t just revolve around it’s current market price.

Of course, but Im talking about the general trend for in demand Pateks after they go out of production.

Nothing is certain.

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by Russell996

Why would you want price hikes on an already overhyped piece?

Because he owns many versions.... and is one of the reasons why I can’t get one from an AD

[Chadridv]

Originally Posted by ragsk

Prices now going even more insane on C24. Some sellers now asking $130,000+

If I sell the three 5711 models I currently have (gold, white and blue), I'd be able to buy my son a small flat in a few months the rate these are going up.

Crazy crazy and even more crazy. Anyone buying at those prices is a muppet.

Why are you a muppet for paying the premium, but you’re not a muppet for NOT selling? If the extra cash, either way, is the main factor to make that determination than what’s the difference?

[ts3]

Originally Posted by Chadridv

Why are you a muppet for paying the premium, but you’re not a muppet for NOT selling? If the extra cash, either way, is the main factor to make that determination than what’s the difference?

Of course there is no difference. Watch lovers have a hard time understanding this simple fact.

[dannyp]

Well, 5065 another data point. Prices climbed a bit as sports watch demand increased but seem to have gone way higher in last couple months (to almost 5167 level). So, I think there’s demand-based increases/decreases and then a latency until collector (vs “accumulator”) demand kicks in.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by Chadridv

Why are you a muppet for paying the premium, but you’re not a muppet for NOT selling? If the extra cash, either way, is the main factor to make that determination than what’s the difference?

An inconvenient truth

[gmstevenson]

If they don't replace it with a stainless steel variant then I would expect prices to continue to rise. Stainless will always command a premium, and if the 5711 is the last stainless steel version the market will use that as a reason to hike the prices even more.

[Fleetlord]

Have seen a BNIB 5711 one offered at $110k on wholesale group.

[fsprow]

Originally Posted by gmstevenson

If they don't replace it with a stainless steel variant then I would expect prices to continue to rise. Stainless will always command a premium, and if the 5711 is the last stainless steel version the market will use that as a reason to hike the prices even more.

The “market” doesn’t hike prices. Willing buyers and sellers do.

[gaeleus]

Only up!! Nautilus will never go down

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by gaeleus

Only up!! Nautilus will never go down

Neither will tulip bulbs.

[ap1]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I estimate only 9,000 blue 5711 were ever produced by Patek.

Here is my maths - 15 years, 400 ADs, and each AD only receives 1 or 2 blue 5711 per year (some don't even see 1 piece a year). 15 x 400 x 1.5 = 9,000.

That said, 9,000 is still a large number. However, I reckon there are far greater demand for the 9,000 blue 5711. And out of the 9,000 owners out there, not all are flippers and they keep their 5711 in their collection for life (reducing the supply pool further), like me. I can only see 1 direction for future 5711 price.

I’m with my main man, Michael

[gmstevenson]

.

[Etschell]

Originally Posted by Chadridv

Why are you a muppet for paying the premium, but you’re not a muppet for NOT selling? If the extra cash, either way, is the main factor to make that determination than what’s the difference?

because it is going to 250k per 5711 right? an oracle told me.

NOS 5711 1 million plus. i have seen the future.

in all seriousness a lot of inept collectors can't get through their thick heads one thing. FAIR VALUE MARKET PRICE HAS NEVER BEEN MSRP. because it is higher now they all moan and complain. when it was lower where were the complaints? oh i know where - the discount is not big enough.