Goodbye 5711, but will prices go up or down?

[ragsk]

Originally Posted by Chadridv

Why are you a muppet for paying the premium, but you’re not a muppet for NOT selling? If the extra cash, either way, is the main factor to make that determination than what’s the difference?

Because I don't want to sell - I enjoy wearing and keeping my watches. Based on your comment, I should be selling it. But then I would lose the pleasure I derive from wearing it.

Is it $100,000 worth of pleasure? Definitely not. There are other things I would rather spend $100,000 on. Therefore I know that I will never buy one at that price. It's a circular argument because by inference I should sell it and buy something that I will derive $100,000 worth of pleasure from - fortunately I do not need to make that compromise.

[Jacob@thejcgroup.com]

I think it’s just another example of supply vs demand. Some of us may or may not believe in BTC, but at the end of the day something is worth as much as someone is willing to pay for it. And for the time being people have spoken and created the value. Gray market dealers may come up with some crazy prices, but until someone pays them the price they are asking, it doesn’t mean much. Just my 1 cent.

[Token74]

Originally Posted by Chadridv

Why are you a muppet for paying the premium, but you’re not a muppet for NOT selling? If the extra cash, either way, is the main factor to make that determination than what’s the difference?

Spot on!


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[V25V]

Originally Posted by Chadridv

Why are you a muppet for paying the premium, but you’re not a muppet for NOT selling? If the extra cash, either way, is the main factor to make that determination than what’s the difference?

Well, difference for me would be why sell it? We all know the market isn't going to go down on them and unless you need the money for something else, it's not a terrible place to park some cash. If there ever was a true investment piece that you can wear, this is it. I have debated selling my 5711 a few times but question is always what I would do with the cash anyhow. Reinvest it in the market right now? No thanks but if an investment opportunity came up and I wanted to use the cash from a watch? Sure. In the meantime, I'll wear it and try not to scuff it up in the process .


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[KWSub]

Originally Posted by V25V

Well, difference for me would be why sell it? We all know the market isn't going to go down on them and unless you need the money for something else, it's not a terrible place to park some cash. If there ever was a true investment piece that you can wear, this is it. I have debated selling my 5711 a few times but question is always what I would do with the cash anyhow. Reinvest it in the market right now? No thanks but if an investment opportunity came up and I wanted to use the cash from a watch? Sure. In the meantime, I'll wear it and try not to scuff it up in the process .


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Very well said. I agree with this 100%.

[Acquisition40]

Originally Posted by V25V

Well, difference for me would be why sell it? We all know the market isn't going to go down on them and unless you need the money for something else, it's not a terrible place to park some cash. If there ever was a true investment piece that you can wear, this is it. I have debated selling my 5711 a few times but question is always what I would do with the cash anyhow. Reinvest it in the market right now? No thanks but if an investment opportunity came up and I wanted to use the cash from a watch? Sure. In the meantime, I'll wear it and try not to scuff it up in the process .

Completely agree.

Those who keep their 5711s (or other "premiumed" models) aren't selling because they don't see owning/wearing/enjoying/collecting the watch as an opportunity cost lost elsewhere (like investing in something else). And the value derived from keeping the watch is completely subjective, regardless of where it is financially in the market.

Simply put, we value what we own in very different ways that aren't reflective of how the market behaves. Todd Levin on Hodinkee's Talking Watches puts it very eloquently!

S

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by ragsk

Because I don't want to sell - I enjoy wearing and keeping my watches. Based on your comment, I should be selling it. But then I would lose the pleasure I derive from wearing it.

Is it $100,000 worth of pleasure? Definitely not. There are other things I would rather spend $100,000 on. Therefore I know that I will never buy one at that price. It's a circular argument because by inference I should sell it and buy something that I will derive $100,000 worth of pleasure from - fortunately I do not need to make that compromise.

What other things would you rather spend $100,000 on?

[UmichNJ]

Originally Posted by cascavel

What other things would you rather spend $100,000 on?

I’d also add that the two ADs I use specifically allocate hard to get watches to me because they know that I won’t sell them and that I will just enjoy them. Yes, once I pay for them they are mine, but I respect the trust that they have in me.

[ragsk]

Originally Posted by cascavel

What other things would you rather spend $100,000 on?

Partying in Vegas!

Only joking - but there are a few things I can think of including better watches (imo of course).

[Chadridv]

Originally Posted by ragsk

Because I don't want to sell - I enjoy wearing and keeping my watches. Based on your comment, I should be selling it. But then I would lose the pleasure I derive from wearing it.

Is it $100,000 worth of pleasure? Definitely not. There are other things I would rather spend $100,000 on. Therefore I know that I will never buy one at that price. It's a circular argument because by inference I should sell it and buy something that I will derive $100,000 worth of pleasure from - fortunately I do not need to make that compromise.

I agree it’s a circular argument and actually I’m not trying to argue anything, I’m really trying to understand the difference in mentality. I’m not suggesting you sell, and profit x amount of money. I’m just saying if adding x amount of money is so significant to you that you’d call someone a muppet for paying it, I have a hard time understanding why not cashing out on the exact same amount of significant money is any different.

Admittedly it’s difficult to express the mental hang up. I’m trying to explain it, it just seems funny to me, and if I’m being honest I don’t really think it’s fair to criticize people that pay the premium (people like me lol).

Obviously one of the arguments is that it’s parked money, so why sell when you’re enjoying it. IF it’s parked money, then why criticize me for paying a premium for something we all agree will not drop in value!?

Cause there’s a better place to invest money!? Well then we’re talking investing in watches, and we all know how that conversation goes haha.

[Chadridv]

Originally Posted by Acquisition40

Completely agree.

Those who keep their 5711s (or other "premiumed" models) aren't selling because they don't see owning/wearing/enjoying/collecting the watch as an opportunity cost lost elsewhere (like investing in something else). And the value derived from keeping the watch is completely subjective, regardless of where it is financially in the market.

Simply put, we value what we own in very different ways that aren't reflective of how the market behaves. Todd Levin on Hodinkee's Talking Watches puts it very eloquently!

S

But again, here’s the thing, people who criticize and ridicule those that pay a premium are still seeing it as a value loss. You’re losing so much more money than what one perceived the value “should” be. I’m not here adding my 2 cents regarding whether or not people should sell or buy at a premium.

I’m saying it doesn’t feel right to tell people how ridiculous they are for paying a premium, while in the same breath saying “I paid retail and I’ll never sell.” I feel like you can’t have it both ways, if the premium value is so significant!

Basically, IF “you’re an idiot for paying 60k over retail”.... THAN “you’re an idiot for not selling at 60k over retail”. Especially since everyone seems to think the value is only Going up and the main factor is enjoyment.

[macrowatch]

Man, reading this thread, all I can think of is the oft used advice about Ferrari's, boats, or private planes. It's not the purchase price, it's the maintenance and insurance, etc that determine if you can afford to have the toy!

I'm less scared of the secondary price as cost to play, and more concerned about the ongoing insurance price tag (or underwriting it myself without coverage!)

[Mini2]

When you see the Nautilus Ref. 5711/1P 40th Anniversary made in 700 quantity I would say there is well over 10k 5711 BLUE units made. Its not a rare piece IMO

To anyone who achieves 6 figures, good luck to them, Whoever buys one I hope they enjoy and love the watch but unless you are buying a watch which is completely sealed and you intend to leave it that way just like classic vehicles that get kept in garages only to be cherished by looking at them and not driving them the watch will not keep that value IMO

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by Chadridv

I agree it’s a circular argument and actually I’m not trying to argue anything, I’m really trying to understand the difference in mentality. I’m not suggesting you sell, and profit x amount of money. I’m just saying if adding x amount of money is so significant to you that you’d call someone a muppet for paying it, I have a hard time understanding why not cashing out on the exact same amount of significant money is any different.

Admittedly it’s difficult to express the mental hang up. I’m trying to explain it, it just seems funny to me, and if I’m being honest I don’t really think it’s fair to criticize people that pay the premium (people like me lol).

Obviously one of the arguments is that it’s parked money, so why sell when you’re enjoying it. IF it’s parked money, then why criticize me for paying a premium for something we all agree will not drop in value!?

Cause there’s a better place to invest money!? Well then we’re talking investing in watches, and we all know how that conversation goes haha.

You are correct to think that it is a contradiction to chide someone for paying a huge premium over retail for a watch while at the same time failing to take advantage of the opportunity to sell your own watch at that same huge premium over retail. Both the buyer of the watch and the person who refuses to sell the watch they already own are making the decision that the watch, to them, has greater utility than the cash.
However, those who don't own the watch can poke fun all they want without moral compromise.

[ragsk]

Originally Posted by Chadridv

But again, here’s the thing, people who criticize and ridicule those that pay a premium are still seeing it as a value loss. You’re losing so much more money than what one perceived the value “should” be. I’m not here adding my 2 cents regarding whether or not people should sell or buy at a premium.

I’m saying it doesn’t feel right to tell people how ridiculous they are for paying a premium, while in the same breath saying “I paid retail and I’ll never sell.” I feel like you can’t have it both ways, if the premium value is so significant!

Basically, IF “you’re an idiot for paying 60k over retail”.... THAN “you’re an idiot for not selling at 60k over retail”. Especially since everyone seems to think the value is only Going up and the main factor is enjoyment.

You are looking at the watch as an investment. I am not.

I don't think its worth $100k. If people are buying it at that price thinking that its a one way ticket to riches than they are imo mistaken and making a bad decision. If they are buying it because they have no alternative to buy it at that price, cant wait and will derive $100k worth of pleasure from it regardless of what its worth then fair enough. I don't hold that view and I bet neither does 90%+ of this forum.

[soundserious]

Lol, I always enjoy a good ole’ fashion 5711 thread; I’ll certainly miss them.

[Brando]

Already spotting 5711's going for 115k+ on various marketplaces online. All while the rose version is going for just a bit more. smh

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by ragsk

You are looking at the watch as an investment. I am not.

I don't think its worth $100k. If people are buying it at that price thinking that its a one way ticket to riches than they are imo mistaken and making a bad decision. If they are buying it because they have no alternative to buy it at that price, cant wait and will derive $100k worth of pleasure from it regardless of what its worth then fair enough. I don't hold that view and I bet neither does 90%+ of this forum.

That is exactly the same logic I came up with 2 years ago when a friend of mine tried to sell me a NIB 5711 blue dial for $48,000. TWICE retail, ya gotta be nuts!
Besides, I already had one, albeit, somewhat beat up. "Put it away as an investment" he said. Yeah, right.

[bob101]

There’s so many better watches you can get for that money I’d be taking offers all day and off to get something more complicated and special. It’s only a steel simple movement after all. Each to their own.

[Chadridv]

Originally Posted by ragsk

You are looking at the watch as an investment. I am not.

I don't think its worth $100k. If people are buying it at that price thinking that its a one way ticket to riches than they are imo mistaken and making a bad decision. If they are buying it because they have no alternative to buy it at that price, cant wait and will derive $100k worth of pleasure from it regardless of what its worth then fair enough. I don't hold that view and I bet neither does 90%+ of this forum.

I was never making this about an investment but there’s no way around appreciation being a factor IF you’re telling someone they’re an idiot for paying the premium. Why are they a muppet for doing so?

You’d never sell but someone else is crazy for paying a premium. Let’s break it down, why would someone be crazy to pay a premium? Cause for whatever reasons, YOU don’t feel it’s worth the extra money. Why would you not sell it, cause for whatever reason YOU DO feel it’s worth owning despite all the extra money you could make from it.

Either explanation is perfectly fine, but together it doesn’t make sense. That’s my point. I said it before, I’m not trying to have an investment conversation, I’m new to PP but I’ve been around the block in the rolex section. Not trying to go down that road.

But combining the two statements you made, raises questions and inevitably one of them will be; are you a muppet cause you’re buying something that will depreciate? Let’s hypothetically explore yes and no. Either way, you’re saying you’d never sell, so clearly there’s something about owning the watch that’s more valuable to you then money, so why is that philosophy make one person a muppet and the other a what, smart enthusiast?

Listen I know as you mentioned, it’s a circular argument. But that’s exactly why I don’t understand how you can make both statements.

I personally find your original statement to be contradictory and I brought this up to find out if I’m completely off on that feeling. You’re right that you’re not alone in making statements like that, so I’m genuinely trying to understand a mentality that I don’t get.

[V25V]

Originally Posted by Chadridv

I was never making this about an investment but there’s no way around appreciation being a factor IF you’re telling someone they’re an idiot for paying the premium. Why are they a muppet for doing so?

You’d never sell but someone else is crazy for paying a premium. Let’s break it down, why would someone be crazy to pay a premium? Cause for whatever reasons, YOU don’t feel it’s worth the extra money. Why would you not sell it, cause for whatever reason YOU DO feel it’s worth owning despite all the extra money you could make from it.

Either explanation is perfectly fine, but together it doesn’t make sense. That’s my point. I said it before, I’m not trying to have an investment conversation, I’m new to PP but I’ve been around the block in the rolex section. Not trying to go down that road.

But combining the two statements you made, raises questions and inevitably one of them will be; are you a muppet cause you’re buying something that will depreciate? Let’s hypothetically explore yes and no. Either way, you’re saying you’d never sell, so clearly there’s something about owning the watch that’s more valuable to you then money, so why is that philosophy make one person a muppet and the other a what, smart enthusiast?

Listen I know as you mentioned, it’s a circular argument. But that’s exactly why I don’t understand how you can make both statements.

I personally find your original statement to be contradictory and I brought this up to find out if I’m completely off on that feeling. You’re right that you’re not alone in making statements like that, so I’m genuinely trying to understand a mentality that I don’t get.

Well, if you pay a premium you are parking money over the actual MSRP of the watch. If I get my 5711 for 25K, I have only parked 25K of my cash in the watch box. Yes, I have parked the equity as well but thats "free money". If you pay the premium, you have parked 60K+ which was all out of your pocket, or ~2.5x, thats a big delta. I could have the 5711, put another 40K to work elsewhere and still have the equity on my watch while wearing it. The buyer who paid 60K+ for it has all of that 60K tied up and virtually no equity.

[Token74]

Originally Posted by Chadridv

I was never making this about an investment but there’s no way around appreciation being a factor IF you’re telling someone they’re an idiot for paying the premium. Why are they a muppet for doing so?

You’d never sell but someone else is crazy for paying a premium. Let’s break it down, why would someone be crazy to pay a premium? Cause for whatever reasons, YOU don’t feel it’s worth the extra money. Why would you not sell it, cause for whatever reason YOU DO feel it’s worth owning despite all the extra money you could make from it.

Either explanation is perfectly fine, but together it doesn’t make sense. That’s my point. I said it before, I’m not trying to have an investment conversation, I’m new to PP but I’ve been around the block in the rolex section. Not trying to go down that road.

But combining the two statements you made, raises questions and inevitably one of them will be; are you a muppet cause you’re buying something that will depreciate? Let’s hypothetically explore yes and no. Either way, you’re saying you’d never sell, so clearly there’s something about owning the watch that’s more valuable to you then money, so why is that philosophy make one person a muppet and the other a what, smart enthusiast?

Listen I know as you mentioned, it’s a circular argument. But that’s exactly why I don’t understand how you can make both statements.

I personally find your original statement to be contradictory and I brought this up to find out if I’m completely off on that feeling. You’re right that you’re not alone in making statements like that, so I’m genuinely trying to understand a mentality that I don’t get.

It’s an interesting question, and instinctively I share your view that is bit possible to hold two such contradictory positions (i.e. crazy to pay the premium but not crazy to sell at the premium).

I have a number of watches that are worth more than i paid for them, so let’s use one as an example.

I have a 5990 that i purchased at retail (£40k at the time).

Let’s assume i could sell it now for £65k. At that price, I wouldn’t sell, and yet, i wouldn’t have paid £65k for it. So whilst i would never say someone is crazy for paying £65k as to some people that is chump change, for me it would have been too much for this watch. So, i find myself in this contradictory position.

I think it comes down to my options if I were to sell, along with a mentality that the money has gone.

If i were to sell, it is unlikely that i could get another Nautilus of any sort at retail, and i want a Nautilus in my collection. And if I’d have to pay over retail for a different Nautilus, it defeats the object of selling the 5990. So that addresses half my position. But, what of the 5990 had been £65k (retail) at the time and it was the only Nautilus i could get, given my statement that i want a Nautilus in the collection, you could be forgiven for thinking i would surely have paid the £65k. But i wouldn’t have...

The thing is, once I’ve spent money on something, it’s gone. Yes i like to know i can always cash in if i hit the skids, but i write off the money mentally. So now, the £65k implied spend (by not selling) seems ok, because it doesn’t require me to break a mental barrier.

The same is true across my entire collection. If i added up the value of my collection it would blow my mind. These have been acquired over time. If they were to all be stolen tomorrow and the insurance company gave me the cash value (at market price) there is zero chance of me investing even half that cash in watches, i just wouldn’t be able to do it. And yet, I’m happy to not sell them!!

It makes no sense of course, it’s a heart rather than a head thing. Perhaps this provides a bit of an answer as to how two contradictory views can be held.

Still, none of this changes the fact that i would never say anyone is mad for paying any level of premium. Firstly, i don’t know their financial position, and secondly, the vast majority of people i know think that everyone on this forum is utterly crazy for spending more than a few hundred quid on any watch. So best not to judge others when we’re being judged ourselves.


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[ragsk]

Originally Posted by Chadridv

I was never making this about an investment but there’s no way around appreciation being a factor IF you’re telling someone they’re an idiot for paying the premium. Why are they a muppet for doing so?

We are going around in circles here. It is my opinion and of course doesn't have to be yours.

I do not think the watch is worth $100k or $120k. There are better watches out there for that sort of money in my opinion. I would never pay that much for it unless I was an investor and I thought it was a sure thing.

For the record I am not a watch investor but I do hold the view that these values are unsustainable in the short/medium term. I also hold the view that the kind of people who are willing to pay this much for it right now are not the watch investment types but rather people with serious money to spend and who want to wear the in fashion/style piece of today. Of course there will be many exceptions but that will be the general trend.

I bet that only a small proportion of current 5711 blue owners will be willing to buy another one for $120k as an investment. But I also bet that many of them wont be sellers either at that price - many of them, like me, bought the watch to wear and enjoy rather than making primarily an investment decision. Sure its nice that the watch is increasing in value, but the vast majority of current owners on this forum wont be rushing out to sell theirs. My blue one will be going to my younger son when he is old enough - that to me is fulfilling enough.

Maybe muppet was a bit harsh (hey if you have the money do what you want with it + clearly you are doing something right to have that kind of cash) but my opinion was based on two factors:

1) If you are buying it for enjoyment only - go buy a better watch for $120k. There are plenty about at $120k including some amazing other Nautilus models. I know it's subjective but that's my view.
2) If you are buying it as an investment thinking the only way is up over the next 1-5 years, I believe that's a poor decision.

Like I said, just my view.

[ragsk]

Originally Posted by V25V

Well, if you pay a premium you are parking money over the actual MSRP of the watch. If I get my 5711 for 25K, I have only parked 25K of my cash in the watch box. Yes, I have parked the equity as well but thats "free money". If you pay the premium, you have parked 60K+ which was all out of your pocket, or ~2.5x, thats a big delta. I could have the 5711, put another 40K to work elsewhere and still have the equity on my watch while wearing it. The buyer who paid 60K+ for it has all of that 60K tied up and virtually no equity.

Yep - big delta.

[ragsk]

Originally Posted by bob101

There’s so many better watches you can get for that money I’d be taking offers all day and off to get something more complicated and special. It’s only a steel simple movement after all. Each to their own.

Same view here too. Lovely watch but $120k?

[Redsub71]

Fake news. Nautilus 5711 it’s still available. 15 years old and product in many pieces, not rare

[sxdcfv]

The funny thing is you can buy a replica that
1) tells time
2) looks very similar (to the average person) to the real thing at a much lower price
3) sleep well at night knowing you didn't buy the 'hype'.

I for one like the real thing but the current gray pricing is ridiculous (IMO).

[scurfa]

I have feeling if the new model is titanium it will be much bigger and also far more expensive, every ad will tell you customers who come in ask for an Aquanaut or a Nautilus and the sales of other models must be suffering worldwide, the steel Nautilus will become a cult model and generate more publicity for the investment value of Patek Philippe.

[fsprow]

Not a market forecaster, but I believe people buy watches for these reasons:

- Features of the watch (complications, materials...)
- Reputation of the brand, available service etc.
- History of the watch (designer ...)
- Likelihood of holding value or appreciating

The 5711 rings the last three bells (though last one is speculative) in a big way.

[Chiboy]

I don’t really care as I undoubtedly will never own a Nautilus since I’d never pay gray prices for one and don’t have any PP relationship let alone a strong one. My feeling is this:

1) If I paid gray prices of ~$100k for a current two-hand SS Patek, when I got it home and took a good look at what I got, I’d have a sick feeling in my stomach. Not that it isn’t a pretty watch. It is. But as others have said, you can get so much more watch for that money elsewhere. Wouldn’t $100k buy a PP platinum perpetual?

2) Re the “not selling is the same as buying” argument — to me it’s a little like lucking into front row Rolling Stones tickets. You wouldn’t pay $5,000 (or whatever) from a scalper, but you might choose to enjoy the experience rather than selling them off to make the money if they fell into your lap.

3) The watch market is crazy at the moment. I’ve been wearing my pt. Daytona every day for 4 years. I love it, but don’t think I would spend $80k on it if I were buying one now. But I’m not selling it for whatever I could get either. Logical? Maybe not. But probably not so uncommon.