5711 Price will avg 150k-200k and stay there.

[mwireless]

Guys, so I just spoke to my dealer and it seems like the fate of the 5711 maybe be similar to that of the 3700. Prices to the moon. lol Can't say when but we may see prices between reach an avg price of 150k-200k and stay there for a few reasons.

1. The send off version that is set to come out later this year is going to be extremely limited and offered to those with application pieces and/or ridiculous purchase history. I own 5 serious Pateks and I was told it may be impossible for me to get one.

2. Also I was told the new version/replacement will not be launched right away. And even if it is, they are strongly considering platinum and maybe white gold as the replacement. Titanium seems unlikely. Either way the 5711 replacement (6711) will have the same difficulty of attainability plus a much higher starting price point, maybe double for the white gold and triple for platinum.

Patek as a company is really missing out on a huge premium by selling a steel watch for 33k that sells on the aftermarket for 100k. Instead of suddenly charging 50-60k for a steel watch, its easier to discontinue it and launch a replacement in white gold and platinum version for much much higher.

3. If you didn't already know, the margins are much much higher on precious metals than they are on steel pieces. I would say if you own a 5711, don't sell it! Patek really wants to protect the brand by limiting the amount of steel Nautili that are roaming free in the wild. (I've been wanting to say that for some time, LOL)

At first I thought it was just the dealers behind this but let me assure you... This selling strategy is coming down straight from corporate. I know this because I've visited the factory and they have trained their dealers to follow the selling technique of Hermes who makes you buy a bunch of other things before they offer you a Birkin handbag. This is how they protect the brand from dilution and mediocrity and keep it the desired luxury watch brand it is into the next generation. If you think this is a bubble, you're mistaken. If you think watch prices will come down, you're mistaken. They may correct a bit for a moment in time (10-15%) but it is highly unlikely to see the most desired pieces ever selling at or even near list again. As it is with Hermes, those days are long gone because it's a restructuring in the way watches are going to be sold.

Rolex and AP are following suit. Go to your Rolex dealer and you will see empty watch cases full of datejusts that once used to hold day-dates, skydwellers and platinum daytonas. Now they're all on a waitlist. 3 year waitlist on royal oaks that used to always be available just before the pandemic.

2016: my Patek dealer begging me to buy a nautilus at discount.
2021: i'm begging my dealer to allow me to buy some ridiculous package to get another nautilus LOL

The strategy is genuinely working. But it's not all bad because all of our watches are appreciating in value, hopefully to stay that way.

Sorry for the long essay, but I would love to hear everyone's thoughts. :)

[1665fan]

Wow, so I should keep my ss daytonas?

[SL BRABUS]

Doubt it.....

I notice any 5711 that is over $100K are hard to moved and it making the 5167 more popular plus it selling like hotcakes close to $50k.......

If you say the 5711 price will avg 150k-200k and stay there..... That would make the Aquanaut 5167 a bargain for around $70k on the secondary market...

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by mwireless

Guys, so I just spoke to my dealer and it seems like the fate of the 5711 maybe be similar to that of the 3700. Prices to the moon. lol Can't say when but we may see prices between reach an avg price of 150k-200k and stay there for a few reasons.

1. The send off version that is set to come out later this year is going to be extremely limited and offered to those with application pieces and/or ridiculous purchase history. I own 5 serious Pateks and I was told it may be impossible for me to get one.

2. Also I was told the new version/replacement will not be launched right away. And even if it is, they are strongly considering platinum and maybe white gold as the replacement. Titanium seems unlikely. Either way the 5711 replacement (6711) will have the same difficulty of attainability plus a much higher starting price point, maybe double for the white gold and triple for platinum.

Patek as a company is really missing out on a huge premium by selling a steel watch for 33k that sells on the aftermarket for 100k. Instead of suddenly charging 50-60k for a steel watch, its easier to discontinue it and launch a replacement in white gold and platinum version for much much higher.

3. If you didn't already know, the margins are much much higher on precious metals than they are on steel pieces. I would say if you own a 5711, don't sell it! Patek really wants to protect the brand by limiting the amount of steel Nautili that are roaming free in the wild. (I've been wanting to say that for some time, LOL)

At first I thought it was just the dealers behind this but let me assure you... This selling strategy is coming down straight from corporate. I know this because I've visited the factory and they have trained their dealers to follow the selling technique of Hermes who makes you buy a bunch of other things before they offer you a Birkin handbag. This is how they protect the brand from dilution and mediocrity and keep it the desired luxury watch brand it is into the next generation. If you think this is a bubble, you're mistaken. If you think watch prices will come down, you're mistaken. They may correct a bit for a moment in time (10-15%) but it is highly unlikely to see the most desired pieces ever selling at or even near list again. As it is with Hermes, those days are long gone because it's a restructuring in the way watches are going to be sold.

Rolex and AP are following suit. Go to your Rolex dealer and you will see empty watch cases full of datejusts that once used to hold day-dates, skydwellers and platinum daytonas. Now they're all on a waitlist. 3 year waitlist on royal oaks that used to always be available just before the pandemic.

2016: my Patek dealer begging me to buy a nautilus at discount.
2021: i'm begging my dealer to allow me to buy some ridiculous package to get another nautilus LOL

The strategy is genuinely working. But it's not all bad because all of our watches are appreciating in value, hopefully to stay that way.

Sorry for the long essay, but I would love to hear everyone's thoughts. :)

+1

Barring a total financial system meltdown that affects everyone, including the untouchably wealthy...then sure that could happen.

You essentially nailed the marketing strategy of the elite luxury brands such as Hermes, Patek and what Rolex is incorporating. Expect lots of pushback because it is difficult for WIS to accept that luxury brands are playing them and using FOMO and ego driven exclusivity desires to get buyers to do whatever they want. Puppets on a string... It's a hard pill to swallow...

[Emery]

You draw a parallel with Hermes, and I'm not sure if I agree.

The Birkin is the top dog while the 5711 is absolutely entry level.

[samuel019]

I don’t know about the 150-200k bit but I think you’re spot on with the rest of your analysis. The watch world will never be the same for most of us. I personally can’t get my hands on any PP via my local AD’s and definitely will not pay the Grey premiums so basically I’m gonna be thankful for what I do have and see what the future holds with Rolex and my local AD.

[shkure]

Wow... if this is not a bubble, i dont know what is. Reminds me a lot of complicated Patek market in 2007. Be aware with paying these premiums people. The rug could be pulled real quick and you could have those nautiluses back below retail.

If the 5270P salmon was introduced in 2007, it would be a 500k watch with a very long waitlist. Yet, today it trades at 20% discount to retail. The complicated Patek market never recovered, not even in a bull market for watches like today. Be very careful out there with these SS watches trading 2-5x above retail. The trends could shift anytime and you will be left holding the bag.


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[Ichiran]

I am seeing a handful of first tier pricing at 100k, mostly from US (NY and Miami) dealers. The next tier is in the 110-115k range and they are mostly European pricing. Over time I won't be surprised if the price hit 150k. Probably may go even higher if Patek stops SS on the 5711 altogether.

[GB-man]

[DoraTheExplorerII]

Originally Posted by shkure

Wow... if this is not a bubble, i dont know what is. Reminds me a lot of complicated Patek market in 2007. Be aware with paying these premiums people. The rug could be pulled real quick and you could have those nautiluses back below retail.

If the 5270P salmon was introduced in 2007, it would be a 500k watch with a very long waitlist. Yet, today it trades at 20% discount to retail. The complicated Patek market never recovered, not even in a bull market for watches like today. Be very careful out there with these SS watches trading 2-5x above retail. The trends could shift anytime and you will be left holding the bag.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I agree history often repeats, but I still have to wonder what exactly caused the fall of that reference and others and how could/will it apply to the Nautilus? And can Patek prevent that from happening? Will it be simply a culture shift that can’t be predicted?

[shkure]

The Great Financial Crisis of 2008 caused the decline in the complicated Patek market. This was coupled with a trend shift to cheaper SS models. Social media has compounded the issue further.

People who know nothing about watches are now going to ADs to purchase Sports model Rolexes/AP/PP as investments because they have heard they can make easy money. Noone wanted to touch a Nautilus when it was trading below retail 5 years ago. Same with 15202, Aquanaut, Hulk etc. They were widely available at ADs, just like complicated Pateks are now.

One thing i know for sure is that no specific market stays hot forever, especially in luxury. Trend shifts occur all the time.

All the speculators who bought the watches for profit, will dump them if all of the sudden prices decline and some of them trade below retail. And the gray market bid wont be there, not in bad times.

There will be a great unwind in SS at some point IMHO, and it will be ugly. PP is getting ahead of it by discontinuing the 5711 all together and putting the spotlight on their complicated pieces.

I think thats the smart move. Sell you steel Nautilus at the peak and pick up at 5270 at the bottom.


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[mwireless]

Originally Posted by Emery

You draw a parallel with Hermes, and I'm not sure if I agree.

The Birkin is the top dog while the 5711 is absolutely entry level.

The Birkin relates to the nautilus overall and there are entry level birkins as well as exotics leathers which are much more expensive. Both require purchase history.

- Regular leathers which retail for 12k and resell for double (entry level birkins)
- Exotics retail for 44k and resell for double or higher*

*Even the Himalayan exotic which resells for 250-500k still retails for 44k the same as any other exotic

The point lies in attainability and until you're able to attain a 5711 at list the prices will continue to rise until they settle where the 3700 has settled around.

[alika]

150-200K for a SS watch?
No thanks.

[cascavel]

Yeah, sure, maybe, why not?
I believe you are 100% correct about the PP marketing strategy and their attempt to capture the grey market premium by selling only PM models of the 5711 at much higher prices. I also believe that there are a lot of 5711a owners who would sell their watches if they could net $100,000 which means that, theoretically, there would be a ceiling on the price between $125 and $140K.
But if someone had told me, 2 years ago, that a NIB blue dial 5711a would be trading north of $100K I would have suggested they get psychotherapy. And I know that most of the people who frequent this site have nightmares featuring the 5711s and 5980s they were offered at, or below, retail and turned down.

[ts3]

Originally Posted by shkure

The Great Financial Crisis of 2008 caused the decline in the complicated Patek market. This was coupled with a trend shift to cheaper SS models. Social media has compounded the issue further.

People who know nothing about watches are now going to ADs to purchase Sports model Rolexes/AP/PP as investments because they have heard they can make easy money. Noone wanted to touch a Nautilus when it was trading below retail 5 years ago. Same with 15202, Aquanaut, Hulk etc. They were widely available at ADs, just like complicated Pateks are now.

One thing i know for sure is that no specific market stays hot forever, especially in luxury. Trend shifts occur all the time.

All the speculators who bought the watches for profit, will dump them if all of the sudden prices decline and some of them trade below retail. And the gray market bid wont be there, not in bad times.

There will be a great unwind in SS at some point IMHO, and it will be ugly. PP is getting ahead of it by discontinuing the 5711 all together and putting the spotlight on their complicated pieces.

I think thats the smart move. Sell you steel Nautilus at the peak and pick up at 5270 at the bottom.


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I tend to agree that there will be a great unwind at some point, either driven by the next major crisis or by a shift in taste. As you say, nothing stays hot forever. Then again, some stuff will always stay a step above the rest which is where I see the 5711 blue.

[Benzsiam]

Very interesting thread!

It's just a watch, I will never pay that kind of price for SS timepieces.

[DGB]

Who really buys a 5711 at $100k+ ?

Less than 1% are end users, the remaining 99% are sold intra dealers who take margins on each sale and artificially increase the price while the watch is rotating from dealer to dealer.

Mr Stern has the right strategy to discontinue it and preserve his company at long range.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Only70Watch]

Originally Posted by shkure

I think thats the smart move. Sell you steel Nautilus at the peak and pick up at 5270 at the bottom.

That's a great point. The craze over SS Nautilus and Aquanaut actually makes me reckon the 5270 and 5970 as much greater value than before. A haute horlogerie grand complications for the same price as a 3-hander automatic watch is a bargain.

[illiguy]

I find the OP’s post/prediction to be completely plausible. Despite whether any of us believe the 5711 is a six-figure watch, the reality is that it doesn’t matter. Inflation, exclusivity, and insane demand (not just dealer-to-dealer, but Tim Mosso also opined that he’s seeing collectors drive the 5711 market), I think it will happen.

The 5711 alongside the Royal Oak and SS Daytona are the poster children of SS Instagram hype (demand) that completely outpaces supply. You retire arguably the favorite child of the Big 3, and make its successor an extremely limited, one-off “farewell edition” + the long-term successor another extremely exclusive, precious metal ... the FOMO factor on the 5711 will drive prices even higher.

I think that also means the 5167 will be in the $70k+ over time, whether any of us actually believe it to be “worth” that.

This is an irrational hobby, but the market is largely efficient.

[jfriedkin]

Does anyone remember the Rolex bubbleback?

[shkure]

Originally Posted by ts3

I tend to agree that there will be a great unwind at some point, either driven by the next major crisis or by a shift in taste. As you say, nothing stays hot forever. Then again, some stuff will always stay a step above the rest which is where I see the 5711 blue.

I would not be so sure about that 5711 blue. This was the same sentiment about the 5970 in 2006-2007 when it was trading well above retail. People thought it will never go down. Look at it now...

[shkure]

Originally Posted by Only70Watch

That's a great point. The craze over SS Nautilus and Aquanaut actually makes me reckon the 5270 and 5970 as much greater value than before. A haute horlogerie grand complications for the same price as a 3-hander automatic watch is a bargain.

Absolutely. You can trade a 5711 for a 3970 and get 20k on top. Its insane. I was never fortunate to get a Nautilus at retail. But if i ever did, now would be the time to trade it in for a Grand Complication.

[mwireless]

Originally Posted by shkure

Wow... if this is not a bubble, i dont know what is. Reminds me a lot of complicated Patek market in 2007. Be aware with paying these premiums people. The rug could be pulled real quick and you could have those nautiluses back below retail.

If the 5270P salmon was introduced in 2007, it would be a 500k watch with a very long waitlist. Yet, today it trades at 20% discount to retail. The complicated Patek market never recovered, not even in a bull market for watches like today. Be very careful out there with these SS watches trading 2-5x above retail. The trends could shift anytime and you will be left holding the bag.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Originally Posted by shkure

Wow... if this is not a bubble, i dont know what is. Reminds me a lot of complicated Patek market in 2007. Be aware with paying these premiums people. The rug could be pulled real quick and you could have those nautiluses back below retail.

If the 5270P salmon was introduced in 2007, it would be a 500k watch with a very long waitlist. Yet, today it trades at 20% discount to retail. The complicated Patek market never recovered, not even in a bull market for watches like today. Be very careful out there with these SS watches trading 2-5x above retail. The trends could shift anytime and you will be left holding the bag.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Well it was a small market riding that wave up which came crashing down when the US economy crashed in 2008 and the actual demand for grand complications was exposed because face it... ​A grand comp, even one like the 5270, which is an amazingly beautiful watch in rose or platinum both, is not nearly as practical nor versatile for most occasions. Nor does it appeal to every collector either where the steel sport model truly does.

Are we really comparing grand complications to sport models like they're the same thing?

Keep in mind, I have a 5980 1/R, 5711 1/R, and a 5712R and yet my favorite piece is somehow the 5711 1/A... Let me tell you why...

The beauty of the 5711 in steel, which I never understood before but do now is....

-Its steel so not heavy on the wrist. As I get older, comfort becomes more important.

-It's not loud like my other rose gold or yellow gold pieces

-It's the most perfect size (40mm)

-The blue dial is truly magic as it has so many different shades. I feel it looks different just about every time i wear it from Blue/green to Blue to black under certain lights. I don't get this with other watches as their dials are usually more committed to a single color.

- Stealth Wealth... totally flies under the radar for most but is totally a heavy hitter that sells for what most ppl spend on a luxury car (avg price 100k) , relatively speaking of course. reminds me of the vintage daytona market that is only going one way... up.

It goes so well with just about anything really. I don't think there is a more versatile or desireable timepiece.


And the replacement for it might be a fail.

Either a heavier watch that will look just like a steel watch but is more expensive in white gold, or platinum and more scratchable... or a titanium watch that is also more scratchable... smh

If you think the new watch is going to be more attainable that's a joke in itself. Patek is trying to become a brand that's not just about the nautilus or one sku... Look for availability of the nautili overall to decrease which will send demand even higher.

Also the 6711 is rumored to be 41mm version which is another fail in my opinion. They had something magical with the 40mm version and even though 1mm sounds like nothing, it's not going to appeal to a lot of people.

That's like saying just wear your belt one size bigger or suit one size larger, what's the big deal it's just one size right? Just look at the difference between the day-date II which is 41mm that rolex made then went back to a day-date 40. 40mm is magic, 41 is not the same thing. Perfect example of that can be seen at the deals you can get on a 42mm Offshore now. They don't sell at all. Aside from the RM bubble, the trend has moved away from larger watches which is another reason the 40mm 5711 will rise in demand even more after being discontinued. Just my 2 cents though.

[mwireless]

Originally Posted by shkure

I would not be so sure about that 5711 blue. This was the same sentiment about the 5970 in 2006-2007 when it was trading well above retail. People thought it will never go down. Look at it now...

Complication watches are not as versatile as sport models. Most collections are primarily comprised of sport pieces and just a handful of complication pieces. People like to buy things they can actually put to use. Nothing is more versatile than the 5711 blue. There's a reason why the grand comp market is selling below list for the past decade and a half. Also how do you explain the prices of the 3700 steel blue? A discontinued steel blue dial watch selling for 150-200k that originally retailed for much much less than even the 5711.

Instagram has brought on demand from a new generation of younger watch enthusiasts that even Patek couldn't imagine and it's supply could never keep up with.

[Becweb]

ok

[Token74]

The 5711 will maintain a premium price, but not the level predicted by the OP.

The 5711 is currently ‘hot’ and a sign that you’re a baller.

It will always be sought after by true watch people but won’t continue to be a baller watch because the baller world moves on.

So it will retain its ‘enthusiast’ premium but will lose its ‘baller’ premium in my view.


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[shkure]

Originally Posted by mwireless

Well it was a small market riding that wave up which came crashing down when the US economy crashed in 2008 and the actual demand for grand complications was exposed because face it... ​A grand comp, even one like the 5270, which is an amazingly beautiful watch in rose or platinum both, is not nearly as practical nor versatile for most occasions. Nor does it appeal to every collector either where the steel sport model truly does.

Are we really comparing grand complications to sport models like they're the same thing?

Keep in mind, I have a 5980 1/R, 5711 1/R, and a 5712R and yet my favorite piece is somehow the 5711 1/A... Let me tell you why...

The beauty of the 5711 in steel, which I never understood before but do now is....

-Its steel so not heavy on the wrist. As I get older, comfort becomes more important.

-It's not loud like my other rose gold or yellow gold pieces

-It's the most perfect size (40mm)

-The blue dial is truly magic as it has so many different shades. I feel it looks different just about every time i wear it from Blue/green to Blue to black under certain lights. I don't get this with other watches as their dials are usually more committed to a single color.

- Stealth Wealth... totally flies under the radar for most but is totally a heavy hitter that sells for what most ppl spend on a luxury car (avg price 100k) , relatively speaking of course. reminds me of the vintage daytona market that is only going one way... up.

It goes so well with just about anything really. I don't think there is a more versatile or desireable timepiece.


And the replacement for it might be a fail.

Either a heavier watch that will look just like a steel watch but is more expensive in white gold, or platinum and more scratchable... or a titanium watch that is also more scratchable... smh

If you think the new watch is going to be more attainable that's a joke in itself. Patek is trying to become a brand that's not just about the nautilus or one sku... Look for availability of the nautili overall to decrease which will send demand even higher.

Also the 6711 is rumored to be 41mm version which is another fail in my opinion. They had something magical with the 40mm version and even though 1mm sounds like nothing, it's not going to appeal to a lot of people.

That's like saying just wear your belt one size bigger or suit one size larger, what's the big deal it's just one size right? Just look at the difference between the day-date II which is 41mm that rolex made then went back to a day-date 40. 40mm is magic, 41 is not the same thing. Perfect example of that can be seen at the deals you can get on a 42mm Offshore now. They don't sell at all. Aside from the RM bubble, the trend has moved away from larger watches which is another reason the 40mm 5711 will rise in demand even more after being discontinued. Just my 2 cents though.

I get all of that. You truly love the 5711 and you wear it often. My point is, for every single one of you, there are 100 people out there that just buy the Nautilus for speculation/quick profit. Hence the prices are where they are.

Since its such a great watch, where were all the buyers in 2012-13-14-15 when this watch was sitting in the dealer's cases and you could routinely get 20% off retail? where were all the Hulk buyers when you could scoop it up for 5.5k? These SS prices are where they are now purely due to speculation. And if you think this keeps going on forever, you are sadly mistaken. Trends always shift in luxury

[mwireless]

Originally Posted by Token74

The 5711 will maintain a premium price, but not the level predicted by the OP.

The 5711 is currently ‘hot’ and a sign that you’re a baller.

It will always be sought after by true watch people but won’t continue to be a baller watch because the baller world moves on.

So it will retain its ‘enthusiast’ premium but will lose its ‘baller’ premium in my view.


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This would be true except for two things ...

1. if they didn't discontinue it and
2. if ballers wore steel pieces.

"Ballers" opt for the louder usually gold pieces that get attention because the watch for them is a means to an end = whether its getting attention, getting women, getting laid. The 5711 is truly for the collector who likes to fly below the radar. It's the IYKYK kind of timepiece

IYKYK = IF YOU KNOW YOU KNOW (for those that don't know) lol

[mwireless]

Originally Posted by shkure

I get all of that. You truly love the 5711 and you wear it often. My point is, for every single one of you, there are 100 people out there that just buy the Nautilus for speculation/quick profit. Hence the prices are where they are.

Since its such a great watch, where were all the buyers in 2012-13-14-15 when this watch was sitting in the dealer's cases and you could routinely get 20% off retail? where were all the Hulk buyers when you could scoop it up for 5.5k? These SS prices are where they are now purely due to speculation. And if you think this keeps going on forever, you are sadly mistaken. Trends always shift in luxury

Love this discussion. Let me address this point with a few historical facts. Can we agree demand is a snowball effect. Look at the vintage Daytona. They couldn't give those things away. There are stories of dealers handing them to clients for free with other Rolex purchases. And now they sell for a hefty premium. Don't even get me started on the vintage paul newmans selling for north of 250k.

Demand works in a funny way... The minute I tell you that you can't have something, guess what. Now you must have it. That's whats happened with the most popular timepieces and exactly why Patek is discontinuing its most desired watch and will limit demand on any future replacement piece.

They've learned from their previous missteps from Hermes about how to maintain a luxury brand and that is sell less watches than the demand.

and for everyone who thinks luxury shifts over time and this watch will become less desirable, well please explain to me why vintage steel daytonas have only steadily appreciated over time even though newer larger modern ones are sold everyday and much more available?

[Vipes]

Originally Posted by GB-man