the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[77T]

The WHO stated in a March, 2019 article that...

Every year across the globe, there are an estimated 1 billion cases, of which 3 to 5 million are severe cases, resulting in 290,000 to 650,000 influenza-related respiratory deaths.

There is a wide difference between 290,000 and 650,000...

Embracing ambiguity will be a benefit as you grapple with the onslaught of dodgy numbers - if not for your outlook, then for your sanity.


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[77T]

Originally Posted by MichaelFlash

According to CNN it is true. But it may be fake news I guess.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/26/healt...-bn/index.html

Hi Michael...

That CNN story is just them posting the same CDC report. There was no new original nor investigational reporting into its veracity.

I can only say we won’t know with any precision.


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[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by MichaelFlash

According to CNN it is true. But it may be fake news I guess.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/26/healt...-bn/index.html

That flu death narrative has been used to push shots for years...

Now, it’s disingenuousness is a problem as it keeps coming up as marginalization of Coronavirus.

[djgallo]

Originally Posted by MichaelFlash

According to CNN it is true. But it may be fake news I guess.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/26/healt...-bn/index.html

Whether it is true or not.....it doesn’t really have much to do with what we are dealing with right now.

It’s a totally different animal.....

[superdog]

Originally Posted by MichaelFlash

According to CNN it is true. But it may be fake news I guess.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/26/healt...-bn/index.html

hard to say what is fake news, and what inst.

regardless of the potentially questionable numbers, what we know for a fact is that the flu is a hugely impactful ailment that often renders people on their a$$, and sometimes worse.

and clearly it also happens in huge numbers.

[MichaelFlash]

I see your point 77T and Fleetlord.

[77T]

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[TswaneNguni]

Army troops being deployed in Johannesburg

President to address at 19h30

[Art 1]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

That flu death narrative has been used to push shots for years...

Now, it’s disingenuousness is a problem as it keeps coming up as marginalization of Coronavirus.

I think it keeps things in perspective.

[Art 1]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

We took the boys out on a bike ride.

We're practicing social distancing and staying away from others, but it doesn't mean you can't go out for a run by yourself in the morning or do things like this. Not taking the kids to the playground or anything like that, though.

So nice seeing my home state! I miss it. Am stuck north of the boarder and it’s snowing again. Hope to be back soon. Enjoy your family!

[SpeakWithMichael]

Originally Posted by RNHC

CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 38 million flu illnesses, 390,000 hospitalizations and 23,000 deaths from flu.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

According to worldometer website, US has had 459 deaths from coronavirus so far.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

In some areas of the world, and perhaps even in the US thus far, this statistic at face value belittles the seriousness of the potential situation we could soon have if we insist on life as usual during the initial spread.

I hope people understand the responsibility on each and every one of their own shoulders to act with prudence and not unknowingly add to the exponential spread, consequently infecting and possibly killing more vulnerable people. Again, you know you can be asymptomatic for around 10 days.

[joeychitwood]

Many times a day, I see people throwing out influenza incidence and mortality rates to show that Coronavirus is apparently a minor problem in comparison. However, in almost 30 years of ER practice as a doc, every year of which we dealt with influenza, I never saw anything as frightening as what is happening now with Covid-9. I’m not at all comforted that SO FAR, the Covid numbers are less than those of influenza.

[Zakalwe]

Flu is a big deal, but flu deaths are spread out, both in terms of time, across 6 months of the year as well as in terms of location - many 'flu deaths are in the community rather than in hospitals. Because our immune systems have encountered 'flu before and because there's an (imperfect) vaccine, we don't all get it at the same time. If we did it'd kill even more people.

I've opined on here that the COVID-19 mortality rate will end up being lower that the 3-4% people are talking about, and I stand by that though it'll likely be higher than the average seasonal 'flu epidemic. But this misses the point. The problem is the virus will overwhelm any given health service if left unchecked, because the majority of the population will get it within a short time-frame, many of them will need hospital and critical care and then the law of large numbers applies. When that happens, not only will lots of people with COVID-19 start dying, lots of people with other treatable medical conditions will start dying for lack of access to critical care. Fast.

[AS1]

The number of new cases in Italy has fallen for the second day. Welcome news.

[RNHC]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

The problem is the virus will overwhelm any given health service if left unchecked, because the majority of the population will get it within a short time-frame, many of them will need hospital and critical care and then the law of large numbers applies. When that happens, not only will lots of people with COVID-19 start dying, lots of people with other treatable medical conditions will start dying for lack of access to critical care. Fast.

I agree. But I do not think this negative possibility merits draconian restrictions imposed by the politicians. Judicious. rational measures based on facts should have been taken. For example, we should take extreme care to protect the elderly who are in most danger from the coronavirus.

[statsman]

Great point. I am ok with “shelter in place” orders for the very elderly (more than 70?) for a set period of time, with public support.

[RNHC]

According to NY Times, for every confirmed coronavirus case, there are five to ten undetected cases out there.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/h...ndetected.html

The current US mortality rate derived from worldometer website is 1.3%.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

If you account for undetected cases, the coronavirus mortality rate drops by a factor of five or ten - giving us actual mortality rate of 0.13% to 0.26%.

Seasonal flu mortality rate was given as 0.1% earlier in this thread.

R0 or basic reproduction number (also called basic reproduction ratio) measures the "contagiousness" of a disease. Per Wikipedia:

Covid-19 has estimated R0 of 1.4 to 3.9.

Seasonal flu has estimated R0 of 0.9 to 2.1.

CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 38 million flu illnesses, 390,000 hospitalizations and 23,000 deaths from flu.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

According to worldometer website, US has had 459 deaths from coronavirus so far.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Just want to reiterate to keep things in perspective. Sky is not falling yet the self-inflicted prophylactics threaten to bring down the sky in other ways.

[GoingPlaces]

Originally Posted by AS1

The number of new cases in Italy has fallen for the second day. Welcome news.

Yes, I am watching this also. Personally I think it's an important data point. Early still but lets hope it continues.

[Letsgodiving]

Originally Posted by AS1

The number of new cases in Italy has fallen for the second day. Welcome news.

Originally Posted by GoingPlaces

Yes, I am watching this also. Personally I think it's an important data point. Early still but lets hope it continues.

I saw that and hopefully it is a reversal of the trend. Unfortunately Spain is picking up steam and on track to pass Italy if their trend continues and several other countries may be on the way to taking their place. It's going to be a long year.

[TswaneNguni]

South Africa .Country lock down ,21 days starting Thursday at Midnight .

402 cases

[statsman]

Geez. They’re going into fall, right?

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by statsman

Geez. They’re going into fall, right?

Nose dive

[RWH]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/vi...?mod=home-page

Not sure if this is true maybe our friends from across the pond can chime in. Article is saying a lot of people in the U.K. are ignoring social distancing

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by RWH

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/vi...?mod=home-page

Not sure if this is true maybe our friends from across the pond can chime in. Article is saying a lot of people in the U.K. are ignoring social distancing

It's true. There is an announcement coming at 8.30pm (an hour or so from now) where we are expecting an Italian style lockdown.

[Solo118]

Originally Posted by GoingPlaces

Yes, I am watching this also. Personally I think it's an important data point. Early still but lets hope it continues.

Same here, let's hope the curve goes down as it could show that the outbreak lasts for X amount of time before dying out.

I am just feeling horrible about their mortality rate, from what I saw, close to 10%???

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

Many times a day, I see people throwing out influenza incidence and mortality rates to show that Coronavirus is apparently a minor problem in comparison. However, in almost 30 years of ER practice as a doc, every year of which we dealt with influenza, I never saw anything as frightening as what is happening now with Covid-9. I’m not at all comforted that SO FAR, the Covid numbers are less than those of influenza.

Thanks Joey for providing your real-world experience and perspective on the CV issue. It's always nice to hear a report from where the rubber meets the road.

[fmc000]

Originally Posted by Solo118

Same here, let's hope the curve goes down as it could show that the outbreak lasts for X amount of time before dying out.



I am just feeling horrible about their mortality rate, from what I saw, close to 10%???

If you take in account only the closed cases, we have 55% healed and 45% died. For the cases still open, we have 94% with mild symptoms and 6% in serious or critical condition.

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[superdog]

Originally Posted by Doc Savage

Thanks Joey for providing your real-world experience and perspective on the CV issue. It's always nice to hear a report from where the rubber meets the road.

Agree. Thats Joey.

Very much appreciate your commentary and experience.

[2geeze]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

Many times a day, I see people throwing out influenza incidence and mortality rates to show that Coronavirus is apparently a minor problem in comparison. However, in almost 30 years of ER practice as a doc, every year of which we dealt with influenza, I never saw anything as frightening as what is happening now with Covid-9. I’m not at all comforted that SO FAR, the Covid numbers are less than those of influenza.

I'm an ER doc with 20 years in practice, in the suburbs of a good-sized midwestern city. Our ER has been a ghost town for the last 10 days--then yesterday afternoon I saw five patients over the age of 60 in respiratory distress in less than 4 hours, all with ground-glass infiltrates on CT and otherwise negative workups. Looking at the ER board from home, there are 8 patients there right now getting worked up. All look sick.

This is so far from "the flu" that the light from "the flu" is going to take days to reach it.

Appreciate your words of wisdom, Joey.

[RNHC]

Originally Posted by 2geeze

This is so far from "the flu" that the light from "the flu" is going to take days to reach it.

What do you mean this (coronavirus) is so far from "the flu"? In what ways?

Are symptoms so drastically different between coronavirus and seasonal flu that you can tell which patients have coronavirus without an actual coronavirus test?

Not trying to be confrontational. Genuinely curious.